The Diary of Sven 2017

[Sven]

Dear Diary,

Today, I sitting down for the first time to put all my thoughts on record for SuperCoach 2017.

Ever since the siren sounded at the end of the 2016 Grand Final, I've started looking towards the next season. Now that SuperCoach launched their team picker for 2017; building of another league-winning team begins.

I've never been one to chase the $50k prize pool, always chasing the pride of smashing my friends each week. Sure if the opportunity arose, and I started well I'd chase it, as I'm sure anyone would, but my focus has always been on my leagues, and the $50k is a bonus.

---

2017 is going to be a strange year for SuperCoach. 4 weeks of byes, the returning Essendon players, and the big name LTIs, and the forward line that will challenge all of us.

So, where to begin....well, lets just dive straight into my first draft team, thanks to the SuperCoach 2017 Team Picker.

Defense

Heath Shaw, Taylor Adams, Michael Hibberd, Bob Murphy, Lachlan Keeffe, Curtly Hampton
Alex Johnson, Luke Ryan

The second the DPP announcements were made and Taylor Adams was named Def/Mid, he was my first picked here. Of course, lets hope he gets his body right. Never played more than 18 games in a season, which isn't ideal for a starting premium. But that DPP status is keeping him in for now.

Shaw needs no introduction, he's always started in my side. Same can sorta be said for Bob Murphy, no introduction needed after his LTI injury, bargain price for someone who can average 90+.

Michael Hibberd, one the returning banned players is an interesting one. Has averaged 90+ in the past as well, as was great off half-back for the Bombers. Now at Melbourne, how will he go? Time will tell, so he'll be watched throughout pre-season.

Time to look at the sub $200k players that round out the backline briefly, as these are all wait and see prospects.

Lachlan Keeffe is back after his ban as well, and Curtly Hampton is on the move from GWS to Adelaide for hopefully more gametime. I really like Hampton and if he gets on the park could be a very valuable cashcow. Matthew Scharenberg might be worth a look too.

As for the rookies on the bench, well they'll definitely change, but at the moment, forgotten Swan, Alex Johnson is in, and Luke Ryan from Freo.

Midfield

Patrick Dangerfield, Scott Pendlebury, Marcus Bontempelli, Nat Fyfe, Dayne Beams, Marc Murphy, Jarrod Berry, David Myers
Jarrod Pickett, Harley Balic, Dylan Clarke

Dangerfield. Lock.
Pendles. Lock.
Fyfe. Lock.
Myers. Lock.

Now that the givens are out of the way...it was time to look at value on the midfield. Beams was a given, but his injury proneness of late is a huge concern, will watch as Jobe Watson is not much more expensive. Murphy was an easier selection, heres hoping he can get back to 100+ average.

M3 is still up in the air. So many great options, but for now I've settled on the Bont. Kids a freak, and I cant see any reason why he couldn't push 110+ next year. Sloane, Rockliff and Treloar are still very much in the mix. Love to take a punt on GAJ, but alas, money ran out....

As for the rookies, Berry, Pickett, Balic, Clarke round out the midfield.

Rucks

Max Gawn, Aaron Sandilands
Luke Strnadica

Rucks are always a funny one for me. I've always seem to gone on a different strategy ever year. One year will be gun/rookie, next set-forget, and this year gun-LTI. Money was a factor, and I liked too much of my other lines to compromise them in favour of the set and forget strategy. Anythings possible though, this isn't set in stone.

But for now, Gawn is a lock and wont move regardless (yeah, he is a bit pricey, but very well worth it). Sandi....oh Sandi. Fingers crossed he is back fit for Round 1. Strnadica is the best loophole candidate for year, Freo has a lot of late games in 2017. Plus he is a ruck/fwd DPP!

Forwards

Nick Riewoldt, Jack Macrae, Patrick Ryder, Jarrad Roughead, Josh Thomas, Jack Bowes
Shai Bolton, Brett Eddy

Well....gone of the days of Martin, Zerrett, Gray, Zorko etc leading the forward line. Sure its great for helping raise the difficulty level and ensuring more abstract teams, but jeez, they've had it tough. Thankfully, we have Jack Macrae though. At least there is that positive, and I'll take it.

F1 was a coin flip between Dahlhaus and Riewoldt, but really after his 187 in Round 23 last year, how could you pass him up.

Patrick Ryder and Jarrad Rougheads prices were too good to refuse, and Ryder will be a great DPP come bye time thanks to Ports early bye.

Rounding out the forward line are cashcows Thomas, Bowes, Bolton and Eddy. Watch and observe.



Phew. Well, there is my first draft. Of course it will change, already got changes in mind. :P Half the fun of starting this early.

It's good to be back for pre-season 2017!

Sven.

[fasttrack13]

covered all bases there, very nice!
Just wondering if you've looked into past ACL players and their averages post surgery... libbas was down last year and I'd say Murphy would be too... something to consider.!
Love M.Murphy, tempted to pick him myself.
Tread cautiously on Roughead, would've lost a lot of fitness. That takes 3+ months to build up and only 2 weeks to loose being completely sedentary! So would've lost a lot of fitness during the year. Another thing to watch in the media!

Only concerns I'd have over a high quality team

[Regs81]

Good team. I think I counted 19 players the same as mine!! looks good, obviously rookies will change.. Best of luck, cheers

[GoLions]

Team looks pretty good man! My only concern would bee perhaps 1-2 too many 'risk' players, so to speak. Hibberd, Bob, Fyfe, Beams, Murphy, Myers, Sandi, Ryder, Roughy all top players coming back from injury/suspension...I'd maybe swap out 1-2 for others if possible.

[Sven]

covered all bases there, very nice!
Just wondering if you've looked into past ACL players and their averages post surgery... libbas was down last year and I'd say Murphy would be too... something to consider.!
Love M.Murphy, tempted to pick him myself.
Tread cautiously on Roughead, would've lost a lot of fitness. That takes 3+ months to build up and only 2 weeks to loose being completely sedentary! So would've lost a lot of fitness during the year. Another thing to watch in the media!

Only concerns I'd have over a high quality team

It's a good point you make regarding post-ACL averages. Something to definitely look into, yeah.

Roughead is definitely a huge wait and see prospect, and a risky one. But there is huge reward here, considering he averaged 95+ in his last 5 seasons. Pre-season in February will tell us more.

Good team. I think I counted 19 players the same as mine!! looks good, obviously rookies will change.. Best of luck, cheers

Thanks Regs! Best of luck to you too.

Team looks pretty good man! My only concern would bee perhaps 1-2 too many 'risk' players, so to speak. Hibberd, Bob, Fyfe, Beams, Murphy, Myers, Sandi, Ryder, Roughy all top players coming back from injury/suspension...I'd maybe swap out 1-2 for others if possible.

Yeah, I have wondered this. They are all definitely watch and see prospects that could definitely change if they're not fit. Time will tell which risks to take.

Hibberd and B Murphy could become Docherty and McGrath.
Fyfe, Beams, M Murphy could become...well, anything.
Sandi will likely depend on how much cash is left over.
Ryder and Roughy could become Ainsworth and Franklin.

Time will tell.

[Sabretooth Tigers]

 :)

Nice team mate, how much cash left ? If I had any concern it would only be Roughy which you already have under consideration.
Possibly a big watch on him as an upgrade. Great start and best of luck for the future.        ;)

[PureSwag]

Every Position is good but the fwd. I just think roughy and Nick aren't high scores cause their key position players and in past years they don't score good. Maybe downgrade nick to a good mid pricer and upgrade rough to a prem.

[fasttrack13]

Every Position is good but the fwd. I just think roughy and Nick aren't high scores cause their key position players and in past years they don't score good. Maybe downgrade nick to a good mid pricer and upgrade rough to a prem.

Questionable reasoning, considering Nroo is one of the best KPF supercoah players in the last 5-10 years
Last 10 Year Ave: 103
Last 5 Year Ave: 97
Which automatically makes him top 5 forward from what we've been given this year...

Concern with Riewoldt  whether his age will hinder his performance, only barely scraped into he nineties last 2 years and has missed 5 and only 1 game in 2015/16 respectively. Reckon he's a chance to be rested as well. I believe if St.Kilda improve into the top 8 he will 95+ and is worth the gamble!

[Ringo]

Every Position is good but the fwd. I just think roughy and Nick aren't high scores cause their key position players and in past years they don't score good. Maybe downgrade nick to a good mid pricer and upgrade rough to a prem.

Questionable reasoning, considering Nroo is one of the best KPF supercoah players in the last 5-10 years
Last 10 Year Ave: 103
Last 5 Year Ave: 97
Which automatically makes him top 5 forward from what we've been given this year...

Concern with Riewoldt  whether his age will hinder his performance, only barely scraped into he nineties last 2 years and has missed 4 and 5 games in 2015/16 respectively. Reckon he's a chance to be rested as well. I believe if St.Kilda improve into the top 8 he will 95+ and is worth the gamble!

Agree with fast track here

here is his history



Surely if remaining fit will be top 10 forward again. Seems to have overcome his knee issues and only missed one game last year,  My only real issue with Nroo is the price at $549k.

[Peter]

Roo definitely an upgrade option. Excellent starting side and got the right number of starting premiums (12-13) - Thomas a rookie?

[Sven]

Dear Diary,

With SuperCoach finally open and all teams well underway into pre-season training, its time to revisit my team, make a few tweaks to start getting it settled before the JLT series.

There is so much SuperCoach blogs, articles, and raw statistics available to us, to help push us to the next level. Like training for a marathon, your success can be measured by how much time and effort you put in. Unfortunately for us, there is also a lot of luck involved.

Here's hoping lucks on my side.

Enough preaching, lets see where we are at now.

This was my first instance:

DEF: Heath Shaw, Taylor Adams, Michael Hibberd, Bob Murphy, Lachlan Keeffe, Curtly Hampton (Alex Johnson, Luke Ryan)
MID: Patrick Dangerfield, Scott Pendlebury, Marcus Bontempelli, Nat Fyfe, Dayne Beams, Marc Murphy, Jarrod Berry, David Myers (Jarrod Pickett, Harley Balic, Dylan Clarke)
RUC: Max Gawn, Aaron Sandilands (Luke Strnadica)
FWD: Nick Riewoldt, Jack Macrae, Patrick Ryder, Jarrad Roughead, Josh Thomas, Jack Bowes (Shai Bolton, Brett Eddy)

Well, there has been quite a number of changes, in favour of a better overall structure. Never been one for the guns and rookies approach, but this year, I'm finally going to give it a crack.



Defense

Heath Shaw, Taylor Adams, Bob Murphy, Andrew McGrath, Lachlan Keeffe, Curtly Hampton
Alex Johnson, Luke Ryan

Not much has changed here, just McGrath coming in for Hibberd. Murphy is up and about, and looks set to return in the JLT series. Lot or arguements about whether he can return to form after injury, whether the youth in Biggs, Johann etc will force him out of the side more often, blah blah blah. I'm backing him. He's come back from an ACL before, and will again.

Adams and Hampton are also still on the watchlist, and could be replaced by the likes of Rance, Laird, Johann and Scharenberg, or Berry.

Midfield

Patrick Dangerfield, Scott Pendlebury, Dan Hannebery, Tom Rockliff, Nat Fyfe, Marc Murphy, David Swallow, David Myers
Josh Williams, Jack Graham, Dylan Clarke

Few changes here, B Sharps are out (Bont, Beams and Berry), replaced with Swallow Rockberys. Love this midfield, monstrous potential if they all fire, including Myers. :P

Not much else to say here....

Rucks

Max Gawn, Jarrod Witts
Luke Strnadica

Witts, could be my biggest risk. I'm always a big fan of the set and forget approach, but this is the year where I think I can take a calculated risk in the ruck. There hasn't been much talk of Witts, but he will be GCs #1 ruck this year. Tom Nicholls is injury prone and struggling to be fit for the JLT series, and I've been a huge fan of Witts when he was at Collingwood, and he is ready to breakout. At the price, he is a steal.

There is no certainty, only opportunity.....

Forwards

Luke Dahlhaus, Jack Macrae, Isaac Heeney, Patrick Ryder, Jack Bowes, Jarrod Pickett
Shai Bolton, Brett Eddy

Huge overhaul here, but again happy with how its turned out. Dahlhaus and Macrae are jets, Heeney is touted as a top breakout contender for 2017 (no pressure), Ryder will return to form plus his DPP helps immensely, and Bowes and Pickett speak for themselves as rookies.



Very very happy with the changes made, and very excited to see how the JLT series pans out. Still a lot on my watchlist, and I'm sure a lot could (and will likely) change between now and Round 1.

Until then, happy SuperCoaching. :)

Sven.

PS. Final thought.....B Murphy, D Swallow, J Macrae or A Rance, D Swallow, J Roughead, or B Murphy, D Beams, J Roughead. Hmmm......

[GoLions]

What's your backup plan when Nicholls is fit and is the #1 ruck? :P

Apart from that, I like it. Rookies all look pretty good as well.

[Sven]

What's your backup plan when Nicholls is fit and is the #1 ruck? :P

Apart from that, I like it. Rookies all look pretty good as well.

Fingers crossed it doesn't. :P

But I do have a contingency plan, or two.

Plan A involves downgrading Swallow and Macrae to Berry/P-P and Roughead, and upgrading Witts to Grundy/Martin.

Plan B involves downgrading Rocky to Berry/P-P and upgrading Witts to Grundy/Martin and B Murphy to anyone.

The most fluid changes to my team have involved B Murphy, J Macrae, J Witts, D Swallow and to some extent T Rockliff.

[Money Shot]

Murphy to Powell-Pepper
Witts to Sandi
Murphy to premium

Is what I would do.

[Sven]

Murphy to Powell-Pepper
Witts to Sandi
Murphy to premium

Is what I would do.

Sandi is injured....

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-02-01/veteran-docker-sandilands-ruled-out-with-calf-injury