Which Rucks?

[Bully]

Hmm...well before Ryder (Mr go missing - Ive ridden that train before) and Missy I would put a few players in the "value for money - keepers bracket"  far above them....and  not limited to:

Roughnuts
Macrea
Dahl
Billings
Acres
Miller
Petracca
TMiller
Greene
JKennedy
Lynch
DSmith
ISmith
Weller
Wingard
JMartin
Jong

Then I would start looking at Missy n Ryder...

But hey...that's just my opinion

Now you're just being ridiculous, I'm after a list of players you genuinely believe will average 90+.

Ryder's last five years - 90, 105, 90, 101, 85

Ryder's first year at Port was playing as a forward in a weak team. Lobbe was the number one ruck who has now fallen out of favour. Ryder's has shown a capability to be a 90+ when given decent ruck time, this year he has it.

Higgins is in a slightly different category, his first year at the Kangas produced a 95 average but was injured for most of 2016. He's now a full time midfielder and his JLT scores were super impressive. Fitness is the worry but if he can put on 100k then a sideways move should be fairly easy. I'm predicting another 90+ season at a minimum.

You asked and I put my opinion forward to who I think is going to give you a better return than Missy and Ryder
I can see all them having a better chance at getting to 90+ PPG than Missy or Ryder

I wasn't being ridiculous at all IMO.....and if I was you started it!

I'm after reasoned analysis not a long list of names. My question to you was who will be the top 6 forwards?

[Gigantor]

You make some good points however the solid inside mid brigade at North remains largely unchanged from 2015/2016 with Cunnington, Ziebell & Swallow remaining in key roles. Dumont has also emerged as another decent inside mid there.

Will the loss of outside types like Harvey, Wells & Dal Santo really have much impact on Goldstein's "Hitout to Advantage" numbers? Harvey played off a flank in the twilight years of his career, Dal Santo was pretty useless in 2016 and your boy Higgins is being groomed to replace Wells in a key midfield role anyway.

My understanding is a HOTA is a hit out that leads to an effective disposal. So for example in round one if Goldy hits its to Ziebell or Swallow but they have no outside options to go to so they turn it over to Gaff or Shuey or get nailed by Priddis then Goldy gets nothing.

So yeah losing quality outside linking players could have a negative effect on Goldy's scoring

[Mat0369]

Yep, it all makes sense to me

@Mat, I'm curious to know, if you have Witts at R3 and as you say "don't need Nank or Ryder for cover" then what does your forward line actually look like without them?

You must be relying on a lot of dubious rookies on field

I have gone two guys I consider top 8 (Dahl and Macrae), one mid price option in Roughy and then filled it out with rookies. I currently have Hoskin-Elliott, Taranto and Turner on field.

Taranto is built for SC. He is in a strong team which is a positive and a negative. It's bad because he has pressure for his spot, but it also means he won't get the attention he would in a lesser team. He averaged 148 points in the TAC last year so he is perfectly suited to the game. I'd take a 70 and be pretty happy with that.

Looking at Hoskin-Elliott and his scores, when he had an unimpeded run in 2014 he averaged 74 points per game unvested. If he can average 70 I'd be more then happy at his price.

Turner has had a lot of vests in his career so far but he played really well in the pre-season and he can score alright. He will score 40 one week and 90 the next. Split the difference and that's a 65.

If I was to not start one guy it would be Roughy, I'd either look to upgrade him to another premium forward or maybe a mid price option that looks like they will see a lot of midfield time. Brayshaw and Steele are two that fit the criteria.

A lot of the guys loading up with Nank/Roughy at F6 are thinking short game. It might generate you a bunch of points early but you aren't likely to trade those guys out at all this year and you are likely to lose points if they aren't good enough. By starting rookies at F3-F6 it allows you to judge who the guys are that will perform and bring them in. I also don't want to hamstring myself if a few decent rookies pop up in the forward line later in the year, you want to be able to downgrade to these guys to generate cash.

I'm valuing the cash generation over the first 8 weeks of the season to the extra 10 points a week maybe.

[Mat0369]

See the problem you face is that Goldy may well average 105 but is still 15 short of the next best ruckman. You are making a big bet on a guy with a degenerative knee who will be playing for a team likely to be 0-5 at the start of the year. Then there's the Daw /Preuss factor to consider. The fact of the matter is Goldy's scores suffer both in losses & with Daw - it's the double whammy and you are betting against history. Goldy faces 6 finalists in the first 8 rounds and Sandi, a player he scored 44 against 2 season's ago. To suggest he'll average 120 is being overly optimistic, I reckon you'll get 105 at best (even in 2015 Goldy only averaged 109 in losses).

So the risk is just as much in your court as it is mine, but at least I can confidently say I'll have the top scoring ruck in my side by season's end.

109 in losses is still 10 points better then the 2nd best ruck last year. He will destroy WC for 140+ in round 1, make him VC/C and you're already ahead. I'm 99% sure Goldy will be top 3 by the years end. I'll bank on that. I can always turn Sandi into the next best ruck come the bye weeks.

[Bully]

See the problem you face is that Goldy may well average 105 but is still 15 short of the next best ruckman. You are making a big bet on a guy with a degenerative knee who will be playing for a team likely to be 0-5 at the start of the year. Then there's the Daw /Preuss factor to consider. The fact of the matter is Goldy's scores suffer both in losses & with Daw - it's the double whammy and you are betting against history. Goldy faces 6 finalists in the first 8 rounds and Sandi, a player he scored 44 against 2 season's ago. To suggest he'll average 120 is being overly optimistic, I reckon you'll get 105 at best (even in 2015 Goldy only averaged 109 in losses).

So the risk is just as much in your court as it is mine, but at least I can confidently say I'll have the top scoring ruck in my side by season's end.

109 in losses is still 10 points better then the 2nd best ruck last year. He will destroy WC for 140+ in round 1, make him VC/C and you're already ahead. I'm 99% sure Goldy will be top 3 by the years end. I'll bank on that. I can always turn Sandi into the next best ruck come the bye weeks.

That was 109 in his best year to date, can't see him replicating that form. He'll do well against WC but 140+ is still a bit of an ask against a vastly superior midfield. No Cunnington either.

[Mat0369]

That was 109 in his best year to date, can't see him replicating that form. He'll do well against WC but 140+ is still a bit of an ask against a vastly superior midfield. No Cunnington either.

Trent Dumont will step in. He has looked really good this pre-season, he is one that has really impressed me for North. They still have all their inside mids and I expect Ziebell to step up being named captain. North are one team that have always been difficult to get a gauge on. When they have looked terrible they have finished top 4, when we thought they would be good they didn't make the 8. The biggest loss for them is Wells. His ball use inside 50 will hurt but this is where the young guys need to step up. Jy Simpkin, Trent Dumont, Hrovat, Clarke, Atley and Macmillan will need to step up.

[GoLions]

Hmm...well before Ryder (Mr go missing - Ive ridden that train before) and Missy I would put a few players in the "value for money - keepers bracket"  far above them....and  not limited to:

Roughnuts
Macrea
Dahl
Billings
Acres
Miller
Petracca
TMiller
Greene
JKennedy
Lynch
DSmith
ISmith
Weller
Wingard
JMartin
Jong

Then I would start looking at Missy n Ryder...

But hey...that's just my opinion

Now you're just being ridiculous, I'm after a list of players you genuinely believe will average 90+.

Ryder's last five years - 90, 105, 90, 101, 85

Ryder's first year at Port was playing as a forward in a weak team. Lobbe was the number one ruck who has now fallen out of favour. Ryder's has shown a capability to be a 90+ when given decent ruck time, this year he has it.

Higgins is in a slightly different category, his first year at the Kangas produced a 95 average but was injured for most of 2016. He's now a full time midfielder and his JLT scores were super impressive. Fitness is the worry but if he can put on 100k then a sideways move should be fairly easy. I'm predicting another 90+ season at a minimum.

You asked and I put my opinion forward to who I think is going to give you a better return than Missy and Ryder
I can see all them having a better chance at getting to 90+ PPG than Missy or Ryder

I wasn't being ridiculous at all IMO.....and if I was you started it!

I'm after reasoned analysis not a long list of names. My question to you was who will be the top 6 forwards?

Ahaha what a list. I'd have Higgins at about 5 or 6 there :P

[meow meow]

It'll take multiple trades to bring the top rucks in. One up, one down won't net you enough cash to get Goldy when he's averaging 120.

[RaisyDaisy]

It'll take multiple trades to bring the top rucks in. One up, one down won't net you enough cash to get Goldy when he's averaging 120.

When you've got mid pricers like Nank, Sandi  JOM, Swallow, Steele etc it won't be that hard

[Holz]

It'll take multiple trades to bring the top rucks in. One up, one down won't net you enough cash to get Goldy when he's averaging 120.

what I have learnt is that meow and i basically disagree on everything. On the rare occasion where we agree ill take that to the bank.

If you dont have faith in Goldy dont pick him, but good luck trying to get him or gawn in. Everyone says it will be easy to bring him in but you will have over issues to deal with there is a reason its called set and forget it lets you concentrate your trades on other areas of the ground.

Just by sheer numbers there will always be a cheap mid, forward, def premo pickup if they have a shocking game or pick up a small injury. Realistically in the rucks you have Gawn Goldy and maybe Grundy as your upgrade targets so its less likely you will pick the perfect time to get them in.

[Woppa15]

Vardy/Witts at R2/3 is pretty cheap. Don't need Nank then and there's still plenty of cash for Todd.

Where does Sandi fit in? It's essential everyone starts with him IMO, regardless of injury risk.

Started with R1 Gawn R2 Goldy which became Gawn Sandi, which became Goldy Sandi.

Waiting to assess Gawn/Spencer. I think Goldy is undervalued and I believe Sandi will play 18+ games minimum and can't possibly go passed him now that third man up is illegal.

[Holz]

So if Spencer and Preuss both not named then what do people do if they currently have neither?

[Spite]

So if Spencer and Preuss both not named then what do people do if they currently have neither?

Panic.

[LordSneeze]

So if Spencer and Preuss both not named then what do people do if they currently have neither?

Ive decided to back in Sandi and Witts with Nank as cover, no matter what happens. I have a feeling that one of Gawn & Goldy won't be top 2, but I don't know who.

Witts allows me to run Selwood (who im confident will be top 10) in the Mids and im more confident with Witts scoring potential than any Fwd or Mid rookie.

If need be I can trade witts to a Fwd rookie and put Nank in Rucks until I upgrade.

[eaglesman]

Ok I have converted back to sandi and goldy.