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Which Rucks?

Started by RaisyDaisy, December 12, 2016, 12:27:07 AM

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MontyJnr

Quote from: Bully on March 21, 2017, 06:45:29 PM
Quote from: Huttabito on March 21, 2017, 06:32:21 PM
Quote from: Bully on March 21, 2017, 06:04:00 PM
Edit : Cameron out.
Infected finger! I wonder if he was playing with his dog and it got bit?

Well that puts a pickle in plans.

Think I'm just going to pick Butler to ensure I get a forward loop. Round 1,2,3 covered. Round 4, 5, 6 Eddy can be looped with Nank being the swingman. If Butler is dropped I may even bring in Cameron once he's fit, certainly not the worst scenario.

The case for Witts couldn't be stronger, two bites of the cherry for 6 rounds. Solo ruck duties. A 76 average against his upcoming opponents. Right age for a maturing ruck. Mass confusion in the ruck division generally. An easy correction trade if worst comes to worst. Those picking WHE & Taranto are not playing the odds on my opinion, but enough said of that. Time to lock em in.

The closer we get to Round 1, the more the Goldstein/Preuss combination is looking like a pre-season experiment.

Goldstein has got premium midfielder numbers playing majority sole ruck the past 2 seasons (128 avg in 2015, 108 avg in 2016). Can you afford to miss out on that if you go with Witts instead?

TomK

Quote from: Bully on March 21, 2017, 06:04:00 PM
Edit : Cameron out.
Oh for flower sake, just as I was happy with my team. Was gonna loophole him and Butler at F6 with Strnadica.

quinny88

Quote from: MontyJnr on March 21, 2017, 07:16:11 PM
Quote from: Bully on March 21, 2017, 06:45:29 PM
Quote from: Huttabito on March 21, 2017, 06:32:21 PM
Quote from: Bully on March 21, 2017, 06:04:00 PM
Edit : Cameron out.
Infected finger! I wonder if he was playing with his dog and it got bit?

Well that puts a pickle in plans.

Think I'm just going to pick Butler to ensure I get a forward loop. Round 1,2,3 covered. Round 4, 5, 6 Eddy can be looped with Nank being the swingman. If Butler is dropped I may even bring in Cameron once he's fit, certainly not the worst scenario.

The case for Witts couldn't be stronger, two bites of the cherry for 6 rounds. Solo ruck duties. A 76 average against his upcoming opponents. Right age for a maturing ruck. Mass confusion in the ruck division generally. An easy correction trade if worst comes to worst. Those picking WHE & Taranto are not playing the odds on my opinion, but enough said of that. Time to lock em in.

The closer we get to Round 1, the more the Goldstein/Preuss combination is looking like a pre-season experiment.

Goldstein has got premium midfielder numbers playing majority sole ruck the past 2 seasons (128 avg in 2015, 108 avg in 2016). Can you afford to miss out on that if you go with Witts instead?

The 108 is only due to injury too. I have no doubt he will be back to 115+ if rucking alone and is a lock in my side unless named with Preuss.

I'm also thinking that Gawn will be named alone. Watching 'the couch' last night and they had Nathan Jones on and questioned a few times if they could afford to go that tall if they included Spencer. Jones even said that they had to have the right balance to be able to put on enough forward pressure so I just don't see it happening

Bully

Quote from: MontyJnr on March 21, 2017, 07:16:11 PM
Quote from: Bully on March 21, 2017, 06:45:29 PM
Quote from: Huttabito on March 21, 2017, 06:32:21 PM
Quote from: Bully on March 21, 2017, 06:04:00 PM
Edit : Cameron out.
Infected finger! I wonder if he was playing with his dog and it got bit?

Well that puts a pickle in plans.

Think I'm just going to pick Butler to ensure I get a forward loop. Round 1,2,3 covered. Round 4, 5, 6 Eddy can be looped with Nank being the swingman. If Butler is dropped I may even bring in Cameron once he's fit, certainly not the worst scenario.

The case for Witts couldn't be stronger, two bites of the cherry for 6 rounds. Solo ruck duties. A 76 average against his upcoming opponents. Right age for a maturing ruck. Mass confusion in the ruck division generally. An easy correction trade if worst comes to worst. Those picking WHE & Taranto are not playing the odds on my opinion, but enough said of that. Time to lock em in.

The closer we get to Round 1, the more the Goldstein/Preuss combination is looking like a pre-season experiment.

Goldstein has got premium midfielder numbers playing majority sole ruck the past 2 seasons (128 avg in 2015, 108 avg in 2016). Can you afford to miss out on that if you go with Witts instead?

I've detailed my reasoning prior but here's a brief summary.

* Goldy has a degenerative knee condition which opens the door to being managed. His numbers with Daw in the team also sees his average drop to 99.

* Goldy's averages in losses are 109 in 2015 and 98 in 2016. North have a horror run early with 6 finalists in the first 8 rounds and Goldy has a meeting with Sandi in round 5 (an opponent who reduced him to a score of 44 in 2015)

* North are rebuilding so expect some experimentation if finals are off the board.

* North have lost Dal Santo, Wells, Harvey & will be without Cunnington in round 1.

* Preuss will get games this year, particularly with Petrie out of the side.

* Goldy was a distant second to Gawn last year so if we are to assume Sandi is a keeper then we can only choose one other ruckman.

* By playing a rookie at R2 one can capitalise on any price drops with the premo rucks (and they will go down at some stage)

* The difference between Witts and Goldy is 370k, that money could be used to bring in two potential forward keepers (eg. Higgins & Ryder) thus saving a trade if all goes to plan.

Mongoose528

Quote from: Bully on March 21, 2017, 07:39:52 PM
Quote from: MontyJnr on March 21, 2017, 07:16:11 PM
Quote from: Bully on March 21, 2017, 06:45:29 PM
Quote from: Huttabito on March 21, 2017, 06:32:21 PM
Quote from: Bully on March 21, 2017, 06:04:00 PM
Edit : Cameron out.
Infected finger! I wonder if he was playing with his dog and it got bit?

Well that puts a pickle in plans.

Think I'm just going to pick Butler to ensure I get a forward loop. Round 1,2,3 covered. Round 4, 5, 6 Eddy can be looped with Nank being the swingman. If Butler is dropped I may even bring in Cameron once he's fit, certainly not the worst scenario.

The case for Witts couldn't be stronger, two bites of the cherry for 6 rounds. Solo ruck duties. A 76 average against his upcoming opponents. Right age for a maturing ruck. Mass confusion in the ruck division generally. An easy correction trade if worst comes to worst. Those picking WHE & Taranto are not playing the odds on my opinion, but enough said of that. Time to lock em in.

The closer we get to Round 1, the more the Goldstein/Preuss combination is looking like a pre-season experiment.

Goldstein has got premium midfielder numbers playing majority sole ruck the past 2 seasons (128 avg in 2015, 108 avg in 2016). Can you afford to miss out on that if you go with Witts instead?

I've detailed my reasoning prior but here's a brief summary.

* Goldy has a degenerative knee condition which opens the door to being managed. His numbers with Daw in the team also sees his average drop to 99.

* Goldy's averages in losses are 109 in 2015 and 98 in 2016. North have a horror run early with 6 finalists in the first 8 rounds and Goldy has a meeting with Sandi in round 5 (an opponent who reduced him to a score of 44 in 2015)

* North are rebuilding so expect some experimentation if finals are off the board.

* North have lost Dal Santo, Wells, Harvey & will be without Cunnington in round 1.

* Preuss will get games this year, particularly with Petrie out of the side.

* Goldy was a distant second to Gawn last year so if we are to assume Sandi is a keeper then we can only choose one other ruckman.

* By playing a rookie at R2 one can capitalise on any price drops with the premo rucks (and they will go down at some stage)

* The difference between Witts and Goldy is 370k, that money could be used to bring in two potential forward keepers (eg. Higgins & Ryder) thus saving a trade if all goes to plan.

You've fully persuaded me into getting Witts. Now I have gone Goldy + Butler -> Macrae + Witts.

bowyanger

#680
Ryder and Higgins as fwd keepers

I know SC is about luck but this is just taking the piss to suggest such bafoonery

Bully

Quote from: bowyanger on March 21, 2017, 09:42:47 PM
Ryder and Higgins as fwd keepers

I know SC is about luck but this is just taking the piss and insulting to most others that have been around here for a while to suggest such bafoonery

So list your top 6 forwards and let's talk.

bowyanger

#682
Hmm...probably not relevant for this thread...buuuuttt....well before Ryder (Mr go missing - Ive ridden that train before) and Missy I would put a few players in the "value for money - keepers bracket"  far above them....and  not limited to:

Roughnuts
Macrea
Dahl
Billings
Acres
Petracca
TMiller
Greene
JKennedy
Lynch
DSmith
ISmith
Weller
Wingard
JMartin
Jong
Nank

Then I would start looking at Missy n Ryder...

But hey...that's just my opinion...Missy and Ryder are on my never again list

RaisyDaisy

I can't see how Preuss plays, considering Currie did just as well in previous NAB cups and still couldn't get in

For me, it's just whether or not Goldy can continue going 108+

Besides those two monster 170+ games last year, most of his scores weren't amazing. Solid no doubt, but nothing amazing

I don't think I can see much merit in having both Ryder and Nank in the fwd, so I'm going with Nank and the 50k. As for who supports Sandi it's between Witts and Goldy, and because I actually just don't know who the best rucks will be this year I'm leaning towards Witts for now, allowing me to bolster other lines and see which rucks rise to the top

Torpedo10

Quote from: Bully on March 21, 2017, 09:44:51 PM
Quote from: bowyanger on March 21, 2017, 09:42:47 PM
Ryder and Higgins as fwd keepers

I know SC is about luck but this is just taking the piss and insulting to most others that have been around here for a while to suggest such bafoonery

So list your top 6 forwards and let's talk.
Dahl, Macrae, JJK, Gunston, Lynch (GC), Caddy, Greene, Buddy.

Touk, Heeney and Wingard could all be smokies. I don't see Ryder or Higgins going 90+ for 20+ games this season. I'd love them to though because it'd bring some spice into upgrading to them mid season. Ryder could explode, but right now it's unlikely and I'd never trust Higgins' body.

MontyJnr

Quote from: Bully on March 21, 2017, 07:39:52 PM
Quote from: MontyJnr on March 21, 2017, 07:16:11 PM
Quote from: Bully on March 21, 2017, 06:45:29 PM
Quote from: Huttabito on March 21, 2017, 06:32:21 PM
Quote from: Bully on March 21, 2017, 06:04:00 PM
Edit : Cameron out.
Infected finger! I wonder if he was playing with his dog and it got bit?

Well that puts a pickle in plans.

Think I'm just going to pick Butler to ensure I get a forward loop. Round 1,2,3 covered. Round 4, 5, 6 Eddy can be looped with Nank being the swingman. If Butler is dropped I may even bring in Cameron once he's fit, certainly not the worst scenario.

The case for Witts couldn't be stronger, two bites of the cherry for 6 rounds. Solo ruck duties. A 76 average against his upcoming opponents. Right age for a maturing ruck. Mass confusion in the ruck division generally. An easy correction trade if worst comes to worst. Those picking WHE & Taranto are not playing the odds on my opinion, but enough said of that. Time to lock em in.

The closer we get to Round 1, the more the Goldstein/Preuss combination is looking like a pre-season experiment.

Goldstein has got premium midfielder numbers playing majority sole ruck the past 2 seasons (128 avg in 2015, 108 avg in 2016). Can you afford to miss out on that if you go with Witts instead?

I've detailed my reasoning prior but here's a brief summary.

* Goldy has a degenerative knee condition which opens the door to being managed. His numbers with Daw in the team also sees his average drop to 99.

* Goldy's averages in losses are 109 in 2015 and 98 in 2016. North have a horror run early with 6 finalists in the first 8 rounds and Goldy has a meeting with Sandi in round 5 (an opponent who reduced him to a score of 44 in 2015)

* North are rebuilding so expect some experimentation if finals are off the board.

* North have lost Dal Santo, Wells, Harvey & will be without Cunnington in round 1.

* Preuss will get games this year, particularly with Petrie out of the side.

* Goldy was a distant second to Gawn last year so if we are to assume Sandi is a keeper then we can only choose one other ruckman.

* By playing a rookie at R2 one can capitalise on any price drops with the premo rucks (and they will go down at some stage)

* The difference between Witts and Goldy is 370k, that money could be used to bring in two potential forward keepers (eg. Higgins & Ryder) thus saving a trade if all goes to plan.

You make some good points however the solid inside mid brigade at North remains largely unchanged from 2015/2016 with Cunnington, Ziebell & Swallow remaining in key roles. Dumont has also emerged as another decent inside mid there.

Will the loss of outside types like Harvey, Wells & Dal Santo really have much impact on Goldstein's "Hitout to Advantage" numbers? Harvey played off a flank in the twilight years of his career, Dal Santo was pretty useless in 2016 and your boy Higgins is being groomed to replace Wells in a key midfield role anyway.

Bully

Quote from: bowyanger on March 21, 2017, 09:52:34 PM
Hmm...well before Ryder (Mr go missing - Ive ridden that train before) and Missy I would put a few players in the "value for money - keepers bracket"  far above them....and  not limited to:

Roughnuts
Macrea
Dahl
Billings
Acres
Miller
Petracca
TMiller
Greene
JKennedy
Lynch
DSmith
ISmith
Weller
Wingard
JMartin
Jong

Then I would start looking at Missy n Ryder...

But hey...that's just my opinion

Now you're just being ridiculous, I'm after a list of players you genuinely believe will average 90+.

Ryder's last five years - 90, 105, 90, 101, 85

Ryder's first year at Port was playing as a forward in a weak team. Lobbe was the number one ruck who has now fallen out of favour. Ryder's has shown a capability to be a 90+ when given decent ruck time, this year he has it.

Higgins is in a slightly different category, his first year at the Kangas produced a 95 average but was injured for most of 2016. He's now a full time midfielder and his JLT scores were super impressive. Fitness is the worry but if he can put on 100k then a sideways move should be fairly easy. I'm predicting another 90+ season at a minimum.

Mat0369

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 21, 2017, 09:52:34 PM
I can't see how Preuss plays, considering Currie did just as well in previous NAB cups and still couldn't get in

For me, it's just whether or not Goldy can continue going 108+

Besides those two monster 170+ games last year, most of his scores weren't amazing. Solid no doubt, but nothing amazing

I don't think I can see much merit in having both Ryder and Nank in the fwd, so I'm going with Nank and the 50k. As for who supports Sandi it's between Witts and Goldy, and because I actually just don't know who the best rucks will be this year I'm leaning towards Witts for now, allowing me to bolster other lines and see which rucks rise to the top

I'm going to go through this thread with a bunch of responses, but I figured I would start here. You can't discount a player because he had 2 monster scores to boost his average. In fact, that should be more of a reason to pick him since he has such a huge ceiling and he provides a VC loop hole option. Lets not forget that one of those massive 170 scores was against last years best ruck in the game Max Gawn.

This isn't just in regards to Goldy, I see it with a bunch of players. The only time you can ignore a players score is if he is injured early in the game and doesn't have a fair run at it now that the vest is gone.

bowyanger

#688
Quote from: Bully on March 21, 2017, 10:02:32 PM
Quote from: bowyanger on March 21, 2017, 09:52:34 PM
Hmm...well before Ryder (Mr go missing - Ive ridden that train before) and Missy I would put a few players in the "value for money - keepers bracket"  far above them....and  not limited to:

Roughnuts
Macrea
Dahl
Billings
Acres
Miller
Petracca
TMiller
Greene
JKennedy
Lynch
DSmith
ISmith
Weller
Wingard
JMartin
Jong

Then I would start looking at Missy n Ryder...

But hey...that's just my opinion

Now you're just being ridiculous, I'm after a list of players you genuinely believe will average 90+.

Ryder's last five years - 90, 105, 90, 101, 85

Ryder's first year at Port was playing as a forward in a weak team. Lobbe was the number one ruck who has now fallen out of favour. Ryder's has shown a capability to be a 90+ when given decent ruck time, this year he has it.

Higgins is in a slightly different category, his first year at the Kangas produced a 95 average but was injured for most of 2016. He's now a full time midfielder and his JLT scores were super impressive. Fitness is the worry but if he can put on 100k then a sideways move should be fairly easy. I'm predicting another 90+ season at a minimum.
You asked and I put my opinion forward to who I think keepers are going to be above Ryder and Missy

There was no mention I saw of 90+

I wasn't being ridiculous at all IMO.....and if I was you started it by mentioning them!

But hey...the game is all about risk and you sure are putting your boonyards out there...good luck mate

Bully

Quote from: Torpedo10 on March 21, 2017, 09:53:11 PM
Quote from: Bully on March 21, 2017, 09:44:51 PM
Quote from: bowyanger on March 21, 2017, 09:42:47 PM
Ryder and Higgins as fwd keepers

I know SC is about luck but this is just taking the piss and insulting to most others that have been around here for a while to suggest such bafoonery

So list your top 6 forwards and let's talk.
Dahl, Macrae, JJK, Gunston, Lynch (GC), Caddy, Greene, Buddy.

Touk, Heeney and Wingard could all be smokies. I don't see Ryder or Higgins going 90+ for 20+ games this season. I'd love them to though because it'd bring some spice into upgrading to them mid season. Ryder could explode, but right now it's unlikely and I'd never trust Higgins' body.

These are all good chances for 90+ but I don't see a massive difference between Ryder & Higgins apart from $$.

Dahl & Macrae yes, I have them.

JJK is a roller coaster. Last 4 years have been 90, 79, 92, 97. So you're looking at an absolute best case scenrio with a floor below Ryder. I also try to avoid picking KP types as they can drop considerably throughout the year. Will West Coast be able to give him the same service without a ruckman? Don't know but I can see a drop off.

Gunston is a reasonable pick but with limited upside. Last 4 years have been 83, 90, 96, 92. I think he's safe for 90+ but don't believe his ceiling justifies the outlay.

Lynch is a potential breakout candidate but has a round 9 bye and still only has one year of 90+ scoring. He may well take that to the next level but I'd prefer to wait and see.

Caddy has been around for a long time now and is yet to become a premo. I'm a Richmond supporter and I'd love to see a 100 average but 93 is his best year and there's no guarantee he'll be in the middle as much as people are suggesting. I think you'll find he still rotates through the forward line. I think we can afford to do this with Prestia also in the team.

Greene won an AA guernsey but still only managed to average 90. If his role remains as a permanent forward it's hard to imagine he'll pile on another 5-10 points for doing the same sort of thing.

Buddy is a rollercoaster and the type of guy you bring in after he has a shocker. Good pick, likely to average 90+ but a player who should bottom out to around 420k at some stage.

So basically there's uncertainty everywhere that's why I'm prepared to have a punt on Ryder & Higgins. Rucks & full time mids have always been my preferred options in the forward line.