Which Rucks?

[eaglesman]

Ive changed my mind like 4 times on this now haha. I'm just gonna leave it till Thursday.
If Gawn or Goldy are named alone i run with 1 of them, if they aren't I get Witts.

Goldy plays WCE round 1 with no nicnat or Lycett then Geelong (Zac Smith) round 2
He will smash out a couple of 150s to start the year if he rucks alone

I currently have the witts set up but i must admit goldy against the eagles round 1 scares the hell out of me. The only thing is he has a history of scoring well when the Roos win and my eagles are going to pump the Roos by 10 goals round 1.

[Bully]

People keep saying having Witts at R2 is risky but that simply doesn't stack up to logic. What is the worst case scenario? He gets dropped and Nankervis goes to R2 instead? Strnadica then moves to the forward line and can be loop holed to ensure F6 gets two bites of the cherry. It really is nonsensical to be so melodramatic.

What's abundantly clear to me is that people have got in their head that you can't possibly play a rookie at R2. This is more about habit rather than being objective in their assessments. Also the fact that these same people have taken on different ruckmen indicates that there will be losers amongst you. To suggest otherwise is ignoring reality.

Your best case scenario is that Witts averages an 80, Goldy a 90 and you replacement forward is going to average the same as Goldy. The worst case scenario is Witts gets dropped, Goldy averages 120 over the first month, your forward will still average 90 while the forward rookie averages about 70. You then have to trade Witts (which burns a trade and generates no cash in the process) bring in a rookie forward and still have a sub par alternative to Goldy in the ruck.

You could still start Witts at R3 while having Goldy in your team and not have to run with Ryder/Nankervis for ruck cover. If Witts gets dropped you can use him to loophole until Nicholls inevitably gets injured. He could then provide cash generation down the track as a playing rookie. It minimises the risk and maximises the output considering you will be generating cash from multiple positions without forcing yourself to pay for 2 guys to cover 1 position in the forward line as a back up.

You are essentially putting your faith in two unproven commodities in a line that can produce premium mid numbers from the best. Meanwhile, the forward line this year looks scarce at the top end. 90-95 is looked at as a great return from a top end forward. Unless you're starting all 3 guys capable of outscoring Goldy in the forward line it seems like a waste. NRoo, Dahl and Macrae are the 3 I can only see getting close if they play to their potential, even then they all have the same bye so you could be in trouble come round 11. It's the same reason in the past I wouldn't spend cash in the back line. The drop off from the premiums to the expensive rookies like Hoskin-Elliot, Taranto etc. won't be as big as the drop off between the rookies and the top end guys on other lines, particularly in the ruck.

Ok, that's a long post so I'll have to address each issue one by one.

First issue is that if the make up of your team contains one 200k rookie in the forward line then that is the player who should be compared to Witts. It's Goldy & 200k rookie versus Witts & Forward premo & $$$. Now I've gone with Ryder and have also used the residual cash to get Higgins, Nankervis is my F6. If you are running with 120k rookies in the forward line then you are running a far bigger risk than a 75 average from Witts, this will break many people and I bet Houston or Butler get dropped well before Witts.

Now on the worst case scenario. If Witts gets dropped in round 2, I simply move move him to the bench, put Nank or Ryder in at
R2, loophole Butler for a week and then assess the other rookies (I'm actually in the same position as you but with a forward loophole). Then by round 3 I pick off the best forward rookie using one of my correction trades.

Witts at a 75 average will be 340k by round 8, that's the aim. If he registers 80 he will be 360k. With roughly 200k short of Goldy or Gawn, I'll be able to upgrade in two trades. I'm personally hoping by that stage, Spencer is out of the side and Gawn is rucking solo, meanwhile Gawn has thrown up a couple of 60's and is around the 500k mark.

See the problem you face is that Goldy may well average 105 but is still 15 short of the next best ruckman. You are making a big bet on a guy with a degenerative knee who will be playing for a team likely to be 0-5 at the start of the year. Then there's the Daw /Preuss factor to consider. The fact of the matter is Goldy's scores suffer both in losses & with Daw - it's the double whammy and you are betting against history. Goldy faces 6 finalists in the first 8 rounds and Sandi, a player he scored 44 against 2 season's ago. To suggest he'll average 120 is being overly optimistic, I reckon you'll get 105 at best (even in 2015 Goldy only averaged 109 in losses).

So the risk is just as much in your court as it is mine, but at least I can confidently say I'll have the top scoring ruck in my side by season's end.

[eaglesman]

People keep saying having Witts at R2 is risky but that simply doesn't stack up to logic. What is the worst case scenario? He gets dropped and Nankervis goes to R2 instead? Strnadica then moves to the forward line and can be loop holed to ensure F6 gets two bites of the cherry. It really is nonsensical to be so melodramatic.

What's abundantly clear to me is that people have got in their head that you can't possibly play a rookie at R2. This is more about habit rather than being objective in their assessments. Also the fact that these same people have taken on different ruckmen indicates that there will be losers amongst you. To suggest otherwise is ignoring reality.

Your best case scenario is that Witts averages an 80, Goldy a 90 and you replacement forward is going to average the same as Goldy. The worst case scenario is Witts gets dropped, Goldy averages 120 over the first month, your forward will still average 90 while the forward rookie averages about 70. You then have to trade Witts (which burns a trade and generates no cash in the process) bring in a rookie forward and still have a sub par alternative to Goldy in the ruck.

You could still start Witts at R3 while having Goldy in your team and not have to run with Ryder/Nankervis for ruck cover. If Witts gets dropped you can use him to loophole until Nicholls inevitably gets injured. He could then provide cash generation down the track as a playing rookie. It minimises the risk and maximises the output considering you will be generating cash from multiple positions without forcing yourself to pay for 2 guys to cover 1 position in the forward line as a back up.

You are essentially putting your faith in two unproven commodities in a line that can produce premium mid numbers from the best. Meanwhile, the forward line this year looks scarce at the top end. 90-95 is looked at as a great return from a top end forward. Unless you're starting all 3 guys capable of outscoring Goldy in the forward line it seems like a waste. NRoo, Dahl and Macrae are the 3 I can only see getting close if they play to their potential, even then they all have the same bye so you could be in trouble come round 11. It's the same reason in the past I wouldn't spend cash in the back line. The drop off from the premiums to the expensive rookies like Hoskin-Elliot, Taranto etc. won't be as big as the drop off between the rookies and the top end guys on other lines, particularly in the ruck.

Ok, that's a long post so I'll have to address each issue one by one.

First issue is that if the make up of your team contains one 200k rookie in the forward line then that is the player who should be compared to Witts. It's Goldy & 200k rookie versus Witts & Forward premo & $$$. Now I've gone with Ryder and have also used the residual cash to get Higgins, Nankervis is my F6. If you are running with 120k rookies in the forward line then you are running a far bigger risk than a 75 average from Witts, this will break many people and I bet Houston or Butler get dropped well before Witts.

Now on the worst case scenario. If Witts gets dropped in round 2, I simply move move him to the bench, put Nank or Ryder in at
R2, loophole Butler for a week and then assess the other rookies (I'm actually in the same position as you but with a forward loophole). Then by round 3 I pick off the best forward rookie using one of my correction trades.

Witts at a 75 average will be 340k by round 8, that's the aim. If he registers 80 he will be 360k. With roughly 200k short of Goldy or Gawn, I'll be able to upgrade in two trades. I'm personally hoping by that stage, Spencer is out of the side and Gawn is rucking solo, meanwhile Gawn has thrown up a couple of 60's and is around the 500k mark.

See the problem you face is that Goldy may well average 105 but is still 15 short of the next best ruckman. You are making a big bet on a guy with a degenerative knee who will be playing for a team likely to be 0-5 at the start of the year. Then there's the Daw /Preuss factor to consider. The fact of the matter is Goldy's scores suffer both in losses & with Daw - it's the double whammy and you are betting against history. Goldy faces 6 finalists in the first 8 rounds and Sandi, a player he scored 44 against 2 season's ago. To suggest he'll average 120 is being overly optimistic, I reckon you'll get 105 at best (even in 2015 Goldy only averaged 109 in losses).

So the risk is just as much in your court as it is mine, but at least I can confidently say I'll have the top scoring ruck in my side by season's end.

Thanks mate. Just when I was starting to get itchy fingers about witts you have reassured me the path.

[shaker]

All rucks will not be decided till R1 teams are out , all rucks are in the mix and I have never got my rucks right in all the years of SC and this year is looking the hardest of all  :-\

[TomK]

Ok, that's a long post so I'll have to address each issue one by one.

First issue is that if the make up of your team contains one 200k rookie in the forward line then that is the player who should be compared to Witts. It's Goldy & 200k rookie versus Witts & Forward premo & $$$. Now I've gone with Ryder and have also used the residual cash to get Higgins, Nankervis is my F6. If you are running with 120k rookies in the forward line then you are running a far bigger risk than a 75 average from Witts, this will break many people and I bet Houston or Butler get dropped well before Witts.

Now on the worst case scenario. If Witts gets dropped in round 2, I simply move move him to the bench, put Nank or Ryder in at
R2, loophole Butler for a week and then assess the other rookies (I'm actually in the same position as you but with a forward loophole). Then by round 3 I pick off the best forward rookie using one of my correction trades.

Witts at a 75 average will be 340k by round 8, that's the aim. If he registers 80 he will be 360k. With roughly 200k short of Goldy or Gawn, I'll be able to upgrade in two trades. I'm personally hoping by that stage, Spencer is out of the side and Gawn is rucking solo, meanwhile Gawn has thrown up a couple of 60's and is around the 500k mark.

See the problem you face is that Goldy may well average 105 but is still 15 short of the next best ruckman. You are making a big bet on a guy with a degenerative knee who will be playing for a team likely to be 0-5 at the start of the year. Then there's the Daw /Preuss factor to consider. The fact of the matter is Goldy's scores suffer both in losses & with Daw - it's the double whammy and you are betting against history. Goldy faces 6 finalists in the first 8 rounds and Sandi, a player he scored 44 against 2 season's ago. To suggest he'll average 120 is being overly optimistic, I reckon you'll get 105 at best (even in 2015 Goldy only averaged 109 in losses).

So the risk is just as much in your court as it is mine, but at least I can confidently say I'll have the top scoring ruck in my side by season's end.

Well Bully, you have me convinced!

[RaisyDaisy]

Yep, it all makes sense to me

@Mat, I'm curious to know, if you have Witts at R3 and as you say "don't need Nank or Ryder for cover" then what does your forward line actually look like without them?

You must be relying on a lot of dubious rookies on field

[Huttabito]

All rucks will not be decided till R1 teams are out , all rucks are in the mix and I have never got my rucks right in all the years of SC and this year is looking the hardest of all  :-\

If you could let us know your final set up, that would be grand!

[Sabretooth Tigers]

All rucks will not be decided till R1 teams are out , all rucks are in the mix and I have never got my rucks right in all the years of SC and this year is looking the hardest of all  :-\

Really know the feeling. Last season I very confidently started with Nicnat and Mummy and we all know how that fared. This year have been switching between Goldy / Gawn   to  Goldy / Sandi  with Nank up forward.  Sticking with the latter right up to the first bounce in anger.

;)

[meow meow]

Timmy English will play R1 and be the new Dean Cox so he's looking like he'll be my R1 by seasons end.

Vardy has no competition at WC so he's locked.

Sandi will last 2.3 matches so he's a no.

Boyd singlehandedly won 4 finals including a flag so has to be considered.

Goldy is Godly.

Witts is cheap and okayish.

Nank is in Vardy's class but better.

Stefan has to compete with all of Beams, Rocky and Zorko for the first time ever.

Gawn has a beard.

Grundy had an impressive 2nd half of the season and doesn't need to improve, just needs to maintain that.

[elephants]

Stefan has to compete with all of Beams, Rocky and Zorko for the first time ever.

Didnt seem to bother him in his last JLT hitout haha

[Ringo]

Stefan has to compete with all of Beams, Rocky and Zorko for the first time ever.

Didnt seem to bother him in his last JLT hitout haha

Some one has to hit it to these guys  ;)

[Rusty00]

Gawn has a beard.

/thread

[petefisker]

Im just loving that Grundy is still looking strong and an extremely low risk option @ 8.3% at the moment.
In the first 7 rounds of the 2017 season the Grundylicious man DOES NOT compete against:
Gawn, Goldy, Stefan Martin, Sandy, WCE/Vardy OR Mummy.
Confident he'll get off to a flyer. Grundy also Averages 18 possies a game, higher than any other ruckman.

vs Dogs, Boyd/Campbell
vs Rich, Nank
vs Syd, Tippet
vs Saints, Hickey
vs Dons, Bellchambers
vs Cats, Stanley/Zac smith
vs Blues, Kreuzer

Dont have Witts as he's a spud and will get 40's. Have Taranto F6 who'll average alot more.

[Torpedo10]

Im just loving that Grundy is still looking strong and an extremely low risk option @ 8.3% at the moment.
In the first 7 rounds of the 2017 season the Grundylicious man DOES NOT compete against:
Gawn, Goldy, Stefan Martin, Sandy, WCE/Vardy OR Mummy.
Confident he'll get off to a flyer. Grundy also Averages 18 possies a game, higher than any other ruckman.

vs Dogs, Boyd/Campbell
vs Rich, Nank
vs Syd, Tippet
vs Saints, Hickey
vs Dons, Bellchambers
vs Cats, Stanley/Zac smith
vs Blues, Kreuzer

Dont have Witts as he's a spud and will get 40's. Have Taranto F6 who'll average alot more.

What does the rest of your side look like? Mids and/or Defenders must be very weak.

[petefisker]

Im just loving that Grundy is still looking strong and an extremely low risk option @ 8.3% at the moment.
In the first 7 rounds of the 2017 season the Grundylicious man DOES NOT compete against:
Gawn, Goldy, Stefan Martin, Sandy, WCE/Vardy OR Mummy.
Confident he'll get off to a flyer. Grundy also Averages 18 possies a game, higher than any other ruckman.

vs Dogs, Boyd/Campbell
vs Rich, Nank
vs Syd, Tippet
vs Saints, Hickey
vs Dons, Bellchambers
vs Cats, Stanley/Zac smith
vs Blues, Kreuzer

Dont have Witts as he's a spud and will get 40's. Have Taranto F6 who'll average alot more.

What does the rest of your side look like? Mids and/or Defenders must be very weak.

... Thoughts on Grundy R1?
Everyone is going light in defense so no brainer.
My M7 is Beams with Pepper M8 on the ground atm.