Which Rucks?

[Mat0369]

Like the Witts advocates have said at the end of the day he's basically a 200k rookie, and he might actually get a good crack at being their number 1 ruck, and if it busts then you move Nank/Ryder to the rucks and sideways Witts to a fwd rookie

I'm contemplating Witts now, but I honestly wouldn't be expecting anything more than a 70ish average, which I guess isn't too bad at the end of the day IF he holds his spot and lasts up until their bye

Could even look at turning Witts and Nank into our R1 once we have a clearer idea of who the best ruck is

I was on Witts early in the pre-season but it was never as a R2 option. That looks like it's going to bite a few in the ass if they do go that route. I'm in the camp that if there is a cheap R3 available then you start them. Witts, Preuss or Cameron were the 3 options, at the moment it's between Witts and Preuss as to who gets that bench spot. I'll make a decision early in the week.

[enzedder]

The fwds are the worst bunch we've had in many a year. Put whatever dressing you want on it but few will get near 100 IMO. If you can pick which ones will get near 100 ave and they play 20-22 games then well
done.
Goldy and Gawn will average 110+ regardless of Spencer, Preuss, Daw, etc featuring during the year.
I have every intention at this stage stage on starting the big boys and will not have to worry about them scoring 100+ because they will ...whilst Witts owners will hoping he scores 80+ and Sandi owners will hope he plays each week.
A month ago everyone was happy to pay the piper for Gawn and Goldy. Now they seem to saving money for spuds or major injury risks to upgrade other players who are questionable at best.
I'm not buying it.
If Sandi Witts works it will be my worst SC season in a while.
At the moment I'm completely comfortable starting Goldy and Gawn.
Goldy has a great fixture to start the year.
Gawn should kill it again as #1 because Spencer is a spud.
We'll see though.

[Bully]

Like the Witts advocates have said at the end of the day he's basically a 200k rookie, and he might actually get a good crack at being their number 1 ruck, and if it busts then you move Nank/Ryder to the rucks and sideways Witts to a fwd rookie

I'm contemplating Witts now, but I honestly wouldn't be expecting anything more than a 70ish average, which I guess isn't too bad at the end of the day IF he holds his spot and lasts up until their bye

Could even look at turning Witts and Nank into our R1 once we have a clearer idea of who the best ruck is

I was on Witts early in the pre-season but it was never as a R2 option. That looks like it's going to bite a few in the ass if they do go that route. I'm in the camp that if there is a cheap R3 available then you start them. Witts, Preuss or Cameron were the 3 options, at the moment it's between Witts and Preuss as to who gets that bench spot. I'll make a decision early in the week.

People keep saying having Witts at R2 is risky but that simply doesn't stack up to logic. What is the worst case scenario? He gets dropped and Nankervis goes to R2 instead? Strnadica then moves to the forward line and can be loop holed to ensure F6 gets two bites of the cherry. It really is nonsensical to be so melodramatic.

What's abundantly clear to me is that people have got in their head that you can't possibly play a rookie at R2. This is more about habit rather than being objective in their assessments. Also the fact that these same people have taken on different ruckmen indicates that there will be losers amongst you. To suggest otherwise is ignoring reality.

[quinny88]

I don't find the Witts selection as big of a risk as some but it's the combination of him and Sandi than makes it very risky.
Most people got one of Ryder or Nank to protect from a Sandi injury but now you have Witts getting dropped to worry about on top of that.

[Bully]

I don't find the Witts selection as big of a risk as some but it's the combination of him and Sandi than makes it very risky.
Most people got one of Ryder or Nank to protect from a Sandi injury but now you have Witts getting dropped to worry about on top of that.

Then Witts gets traded, simple. It's the same principle that applies to any rookie, some get culled earlier than expected. If you were a bookmaker what odds would you give Taranto playing the first 8 games? Or Butler? Or Houston? Or WHE?

Now ask yourself out of that lot, who is more likely to average more? I'd have Witts at 75+ so already you're asking for an Ollie Wines type season out of Taranto, or for WHE to suddenly have a career best year and go from a 49 average with 1 score over 75, to churning out 70's & 80's week in, week out. And if he does? I can trade Witts to whoever. But those with premo rucks cannot trade in Witts. This is actually the most risk averse course of action but I think I'll just keep quiet for now. This is currently a good POD and it's better it stays that way.

[quinny88]

I don't find the Witts selection as big of a risk as some but it's the combination of him and Sandi than makes it very risky.
Most people got one of Ryder or Nank to protect from a Sandi injury but now you have Witts getting dropped to worry about on top of that.

Then Witts gets traded, simple. It's the same principle that applies to any rookie, some get culled earlier than expected. If you were a bookmaker what odds would you give Taranto playing the first 8 games? Or Butler? Or Houston? Or WHE?

Now ask yourself out of that lot, who is more likely to average more? I'd have Witts at 75+ so already you're asking for an Ollie Wines type season out of Taranto, or for WHE to suddenly have a career best year and go from a 49 average with 1 score over 75, to churning out 70's & 80's week in, week out. And if he does? I can trade Witts to whoever. But those with premo rucks cannot trade in Witts. This is actually the most risk averse course of action but I think I'll just keep quiet for now. This is currently a good POD and it's better it stays that way.

Trade Witts to who though? There are no other cheap rucks.
Let's say Sandi gets a 2-3 week injury and in the same week Witts gets dropped you can cover one with Nank and trade the other but you need someone to be able to trade them to.
Obviously that would be a disaster any time you have both your rucks injured/dropped but these guys do have a good chance of that happening. At least with Goldy or Gawn at R1 you can trade them to anyone

[Bully]

I don't find the Witts selection as big of a risk as some but it's the combination of him and Sandi than makes it very risky.
Most people got one of Ryder or Nank to protect from a Sandi injury but now you have Witts getting dropped to worry about on top of that.

Then Witts gets traded, simple. It's the same principle that applies to any rookie, some get culled earlier than expected. If you were a bookmaker what odds would you give Taranto playing the first 8 games? Or Butler? Or Houston? Or WHE?

Now ask yourself out of that lot, who is more likely to average more? I'd have Witts at 75+ so already you're asking for an Ollie Wines type season out of Taranto, or for WHE to suddenly have a career best year and go from a 49 average with 1 score over 75, to churning out 70's & 80's week in, week out. And if he does? I can trade Witts to whoever. But those with premo rucks cannot trade in Witts. This is actually the most risk averse course of action but I think I'll just keep quiet for now. This is currently a good POD and it's better it stays that way.

Trade Witts to who though? There are no other cheap rucks.
Let's say Sandi gets a 2-3 week injury and in the same week Witts gets dropped you can cover one with Nank and trade the other but you need someone to be able to trade them to.
Obviously that would be a disaster any time you have both your rucks injured/dropped but these guys do have a good chance of that happening. At least with Goldy or Gawn at R1 you can trade them to anyone

Nankervis or Ryder to R2, Witts to any forward that suits the moment. Or quite possibly Witts to the best performing ruck once the price increases kick in. The trade will depend on the circumstances but if he lasts 4-5 price increases then I will be sizing up Gawn. If it happens in round 3 I will bring in Taranto or any other decent cash cow.

[_wato]

Bully your reasoning is as sound as ever, no point trying to sway people otherwise.

I've gone Witts and I'm happy with that decision.

[quinny88]

I don't find the Witts selection as big of a risk as some but it's the combination of him and Sandi than makes it very risky.
Most people got one of Ryder or Nank to protect from a Sandi injury but now you have Witts getting dropped to worry about on top of that.

Then Witts gets traded, simple. It's the same principle that applies to any rookie, some get culled earlier than expected. If you were a bookmaker what odds would you give Taranto playing the first 8 games? Or Butler? Or Houston? Or WHE?

Now ask yourself out of that lot, who is more likely to average more? I'd have Witts at 75+ so already you're asking for an Ollie Wines type season out of Taranto, or for WHE to suddenly have a career best year and go from a 49 average with 1 score over 75, to churning out 70's & 80's week in, week out. And if he does? I can trade Witts to whoever. But those with premo rucks cannot trade in Witts. This is actually the most risk averse course of action but I think I'll just keep quiet for now. This is currently a good POD and it's better it stays that way.

Trade Witts to who though? There are no other cheap rucks.
Let's say Sandi gets a 2-3 week injury and in the same week Witts gets dropped you can cover one with Nank and trade the other but you need someone to be able to trade them to.
Obviously that would be a disaster any time you have both your rucks injured/dropped but these guys do have a good chance of that happening. At least with Goldy or Gawn at R1 you can trade them to anyone

Nankervis or Ryder to R2, Witts to any forward that suits the moment. Or quite possibly Witts to the best performing ruck once the price increases kick in. The trade will depend on the circumstances but if he lasts 4-5 price increases then I will be sizing up Gawn. If it happens in round 3 I will bring in Taranto or any other decent cash cow.

Yeah I'm more talking about if it happens early on. Can certainly see why people are going with the Sandi/Witts combo as it helps a lot loading up other positions but it is a risk in the early parts of the season.
Still will consider if Spencer is named with Gawn and Preuss is named with Goldy as I don't rate any of the other premium rucks

[quinny88]

Apparently Ben brown got through in the VFL and is likely for round 1. Good news for Goldy owners as it's unlikely Preuss would play with Brown and Daw in the side

[MontyJnr]

Would people really be game enough to go SandiWitts with Nank forward?

Seems like an awful lot of risk for not much reward, Espeically if Goldy or Gawn start well.

It's an awful risk to pump ~600k each into Gawn and Goldstein only for them to pump out 90s while Witts gets 75-80. Owners that saved the cash on Witts then smash you with stacked forward lines whilst you cop 40s from Pickett/Parfaitt/Houston/Eddy at F6.

The bottom line is your not playing it anymore safer picking the big boys with Spencer/Preuss/Smith sniffing around. It's a complete gamble either way you decide to go and you could get hurt if Witts is only ~15-20 points off Gawn/Goldstein's scoring.

[MontyJnr]

Apparently Ben brown got through in the VFL and is likely for round 1. Good news for Goldy owners as it's unlikely Preuss would play with Brown and Daw in the side

Daw has gone backwards and will probably never make it now. He's not a natural footballer.

Preuss >>> Daw if Brad Scott has half a brain

[Footyrulz]

Apparently Ben brown got through in the VFL and is likely for round 1. Good news for Goldy owners as it's unlikely Preuss would play with Brown and Daw in the side

Daw has gone backwards and will probably never make it now. He's not a natural footballer.

Preuss >>> Daw if Brad Scott has half a brain

Completely disagree. Not only is Majak years ahead in his development (don't forget Preuss was mainly a rugby player as a junior), but Preuss will never have the agility, pace or stamina to make it as a forward. Majak is actually a fairly decent ruckman, so Preuss is no better there either.

Don't forget Majak kicked 4 in the finals last year. I doubt he'll be a consistently finals quality player, but he's more chance than Preuss.

[Mat0369]

People keep saying having Witts at R2 is risky but that simply doesn't stack up to logic. What is the worst case scenario? He gets dropped and Nankervis goes to R2 instead? Strnadica then moves to the forward line and can be loop holed to ensure F6 gets two bites of the cherry. It really is nonsensical to be so melodramatic.

What's abundantly clear to me is that people have got in their head that you can't possibly play a rookie at R2. This is more about habit rather than being objective in their assessments. Also the fact that these same people have taken on different ruckmen indicates that there will be losers amongst you. To suggest otherwise is ignoring reality.

Your best case scenario is that Witts averages an 80, Goldy a 90 and you replacement forward is going to average the same as Goldy. The worst case scenario is Witts gets dropped, Goldy averages 120 over the first month, your forward will still average 90 while the forward rookie averages about 70. You then have to trade Witts (which burns a trade and generates no cash in the process) bring in a rookie forward and still have a sub par alternative to Goldy in the ruck.

You could still start Witts at R3 while having Goldy in your team and not have to run with Ryder/Nankervis for ruck cover. If Witts gets dropped you can use him to loophole until Nicholls inevitably gets injured. He could then provide cash generation down the track as a playing rookie. It minimises the risk and maximises the output considering you will be generating cash from multiple positions without forcing yourself to pay for 2 guys to cover 1 position in the forward line as a back up.

You are essentially putting your faith in two unproven commodities in a line that can produce premium mid numbers from the best. Meanwhile, the forward line this year looks scarce at the top end. 90-95 is looked at as a great return from a top end forward. Unless you're starting all 3 guys capable of outscoring Goldy in the forward line it seems like a waste. NRoo, Dahl and Macrae are the 3 I can only see getting close if they play to their potential, even then they all have the same bye so you could be in trouble come round 11. It's the same reason in the past I wouldn't spend cash in the back line. The drop off from the premiums to the expensive rookies like Hoskin-Elliot, Taranto etc. won't be as big as the drop off between the rookies and the top end guys on other lines, particularly in the ruck.

[quinny88]

Ive changed my mind like 4 times on this now haha. I'm just gonna leave it till Thursday.
If Gawn or Goldy are named alone i run with 1 of them, if they aren't I get Witts.

Goldy plays WCE round 1 with no nicnat or Lycett then Geelong (Zac Smith) round 2
He will smash out a couple of 150s to start the year if he rucks alone