Which Rucks?

[Bully]

And now Hickey puts his hand up as a sole ruck just to further confuse the issue.

When in doubt stick with the Guns.     The more confused I get the more likely I start Goldy/Sandi and upgrade to Gawn after Goodwin gives up on the dual ruck idea.

All this confusion makes me feel better about picking Witts, time to look and work out who is dominating.

But surely by the time you work out who is dominating it's too late? What can you do with a 200K ruck if you want to jump on who's hot?

Witts will be 323k by round 7 based on a 75 average & 340k based on an 80 average. By that stage there will be a some bargains on the board.

It' probably too late by R7, especially if 75 avg means a few 50's to go with a few 100's, only to have made 125K. But this is just my opinion, I prefer to lock in something a bit more solid in the rucks  :)

There's also points to consider and ensuring the number 1 ruck gets locked down without wasting trades. If Goldy doesn't recover from the knee injury and Gawn finds himself sharing the ruck with Spencer then there may even be some other players who emerge. One thing about rucks is they are a nightmare to predict, the one constant has been Goldy but he's 29 in a rebuilding side. Not confident about anyone this year.

[RaisyDaisy]

What's funny is Witts was dominated by Archie Smith 3 weeks ago and everyone was saying he is a horrible pick etc. Now he has an alright game against Tom Boyd and people are locking him into R2.

He's a rookie with 40 games experience and a high ceiling, if he bombs it's no big deal. His form in the VFL last year was pretty good and you would expect at 24 things are about to click. If things don't turn out he gets traded by round 3.   

As far as the other rookies go only Taranto seems a reasonable bet to average more however he'd have to pull off some Ollie Wines type numbers to average 75.

We've had our fair share of discussion about Witts, but to say he has a high ceiling is a bit of a stretch. 3 tons in his career

What happens if he isn't even named for Round 1? Article on afl.com.au about how he is pushing for a chance to get that spot. He's a chance, but no certainty at all

[eaglesman]

What's funny is Witts was dominated by Archie Smith 3 weeks ago and everyone was saying he is a horrible pick etc. Now he has an alright game against Tom Boyd and people are locking him into R2.

He's a rookie with 40 games experience and a high ceiling, if he bombs it's no big deal. His form in the VFL last year was pretty good and you would expect at 24 things are about to click. If things don't turn out he gets traded by round 3.   

As far as the other rookies go only Taranto seems a reasonable bet to average more however he'd have to pull off some Ollie Wines type numbers to average 75.

We've had our fair share of discussion about Witts, but to say he has a high ceiling is a bit of a stretch. 3 tons in his career

What happens if he isn't even named for Round 1? Article on afl.com.au about how he is pushing for a chance to get that spot. He's a chance, but no certainty at all

Well he will be named round 1 100% but if he doesn't we don't pick him? Pretty simple

[Bully]

What's funny is Witts was dominated by Archie Smith 3 weeks ago and everyone was saying he is a horrible pick etc. Now he has an alright game against Tom Boyd and people are locking him into R2.

He's a rookie with 40 games experience and a high ceiling, if he bombs it's no big deal. His form in the VFL last year was pretty good and you would expect at 24 things are about to click. If things don't turn out he gets traded by round 3.   

As far as the other rookies go only Taranto seems a reasonable bet to average more however he'd have to pull off some Ollie Wines type numbers to average 75.

We've had our fair share of discussion about Witts, but to say he has a high ceiling is a bit of a stretch. 3 tons in his career

What happens if he isn't even named for Round 1? Article on afl.com.au about how he is pushing for a chance to get that spot. He's a chance, but no certainty at all

Who will they pick in his absence? Looking at this logically it will be Witts and not a player who hasn't had a preseason. As far as his ceiling is concerned, he was largely second fiddle to Grundy and that's why he doesn't have more tons on the board. In the latter part of 2016 he took down quite a few AFL opponents in the VFL, often racking up 20 touches and 50+ hit outs. He'll be sole ruck and at 209cm should get enough HOTA to make a comfortable 75+ average. I understand the sacredness of R2 but this is a different year with so much uncertainty and crap forward rookies.

[_wato]

Couldn't agree more Bully.

Simply it's not that hard to work out.

Goldy (110) + Black (55) v Macrae (95) + Witts (80) is one example.

Goldy (110) + Turner (60) v NRoo (100) + Witts (80)

Goldy (110) + $117k rookie - dunno who you'd pick (60) v Caddy (90) + Witts (80)

^^^ all for the same price. And that's assuming Goldy is sole ruck and scores at a premium level. Witts is priced at $217k and should be named as a sole ruck Round 1. He's the same price as WHE for god sake but he will score more points and has greater JS. Let's be completely honest, if this was any other line barring the rucks you wouldn't even think twice about it. He is a good pick with great upside and if it falls to pieces I'll look like the fool, but it is really a very easy fix. Nank to R2 and Witts to Taranto or another good scoring rookie. Simple.

[Goosey]

Couldn't agree more Bully.

Simply it's not that hard to work out.

Goldy (110) + Black (55) v Macrae (95) + Witts (80) is one example.

Goldy (110) + Turner (60) v NRoo (100) + Witts (80)

Goldy (110) + (0) v Higgins (90) + Witts (80)


^^^ All for the same price. And that's assuming Goldy is sole ruck and scores at a premium level. Witts is priced at $217k and should be named as a sole ruck Round 1. He's the same price as WHE for god sake but he will score more points and has greater JS. Let's be completely honest, if this was any other line barring the rucks you wouldn't even think twice about it. He is a good pick with great upside and if it falls to pieces I'll look like the fool, but it is really a very easy fix. Nank to R2 and Witts to Taranto or another good scoring rookie. Simple.

A completely valid argument, but we all want to select rucks which won't cost us unnecessary trades, so if you move Nank to R2 and you lose your ruck cover, who else can you get for 200K to fill that void in your forward line?

[RaisyDaisy]

You boys make a lot of sense, and that's something I've never questioned ftr

So lets say Witts gets dropped and you do trade him to Taranto etc and swing Nank in

Are you comfortable having Sandi Nank with zero cover?

I'm starting Sandi and Nank in my team too, but even I think it's overly ambitious to think Sandi and Nank will do the job all year so that means eventually upgrades need to be made. If Witts gets dropped or injured too, you could be potentially using up to 6 trades to get your rucks finalised, where as teams with Goldy/Gawn R1 and Nank F4 could only use 2 AND have perma cover in Nank

All best case vs worst case scenario though

[eaglesman]

Let's stop talking about witts please before it becomes to obvious for everyone to jump on.

[_wato]

Just gonna take the gamble that I won't need it. Better scenario, hope that it doesn't come to that, and Sandi Witts last until I need them too.

Honestly I think Sandi is a genuinely safe bet, it's all on Witts. He's 209cm so he has the height covered over most rucks which is why GC are so interested in playing him. Could be anything.

This is worst case scenario

Witts dropped -> Taranto before Rd 3. After I go for best available rookie. Inject $100k possibly.
Next trade will be my F6 to Goldy or best performing ruck requiring a dg, inject $250k in dg, net $350k turn $300k rook into Goldy for $200k
Sandi $500k > best performing ruck requires $50k, push Nank back to F6 maybe use another trade to get this all done. 5 trades max and one was a corrective so I'll live with it.

Best case scenario

Witts $400k and Sandi $500k both increase in price, downgrade for cash, double upgrade and 3 trades used, loads more points over others with rank F6.

[GoLions]

Pretty sure the worst case is if Witts gets dropped, you bring Nank forward, and then Sandi gets injured ;)

Basically why i haven't considered Witts, cause I'm fairly confident that Nicholls will come back into the side early on, and i wouldn't start Sandi without cover.

Only way I'd start Witts is at R3, but Cameron, Preuss, English all chances to play games so meh.

[eaglesman]

Would this be completely crazy?

Starting witts sandi and then Ryder and nank in the forwards?

Ryder gets really appealing when he is solo ruck. With the emergence of eddy this would allow them to have all of Trengove dixon or westhoff chip in when required.

Can't completely overlook what he did today.

[Bully]

Would this be completely crazy?

Starting witts sandi and then Ryder and nank in the forwards?

Ryder gets really appealing when he is solo ruck. With the emergence of eddy this would allow them to have all of Trengove dixon or westhoff chip in when required.

Can't completely overlook what he did today.

I've already done that, I believe Ryder can easily hit 90+ this year. Eddy was always the key and it looks like he's good enough. Ryder's poor year in 2015 was down to being a lone forward in a crap team, it was really that simple. His best year was a 105 when he was the main ruck at the Dons.

[eaglesman]

Would this be completely crazy?

Starting witts sandi and then Ryder and nank in the forwards?

Ryder gets really appealing when he is solo ruck. With the emergence of eddy this would allow them to have all of Trengove dixon or westhoff chip in when required.

Can't completely overlook what he did today.

I've already done that, I believe Ryder can easily hit 90+ this year. Eddy was always the key and it looks like he's good enough. Ryder's poor year in 2015 was down to being a lone forward in a crap team, it was really that simple. His best year was a 105 when he was the main ruck at the Dons.

Oh god creepy how much we thinking alike

[thornz23]

I've just done the same thing.. think there is a lot of value ruck picks and think they will have a much stronger year again with the new 3rd man up rule.

I don't know about Witts, seems like a reasonable idea tbh and might end up running with him too but for the moment I've got Goldy and Sandi in the rucks and then Ryder and Nank at F3 and F5.

I was gonna run with 3 on field rookies in the fwd line but I'm not as confident anymore so wanted to beef that line up a bit and I think there's too much uncertainty in a lot of the fwds getting thrown around after say Macrae and Dahl (NRoo is too expensive for me this year).

Agree Ryder will go back to 90+ again being the sole ruck with no Lobbe.

[batt]

I am only really confused because I know how good a scoring line the rucks can be.  High floor AND high ceiling for a lot of these guys if they are sole rucks.

So? 

This is going to take a lot of thinking to figure out.  It's not clear cut by any means.  Just remember to prioritise scoring history.