Which Rucks?

[Bully]

So he looked good vs a rusty Ryder and a pathetic Port this week..
Who did he look so great against last week?

Good game against Jacobs (for the first half).

[LordSneeze]

The way i see it not starting 1 of Gawn or Goldy is really really dangerous as they are likely to be the 2 top rucks this year and are both likely to pull huge numbers on any given week. The low premiums (Grundy Sauce, Martin, Mumford) im ruling out all together and really im looking at either a Set n Forget or SP/MP option.

Super Prems
Gawn - $645k - Implied 119 - High Ceiling (6 games over 150 LY), Prone to poor games (7 games under 100 last year.) Likely average 110
Goldy - $588k - Implied 108 - Proven history,  High Ceiling (2 games over 150 LY, 6 Year before), Prone to poor games (9 games under 100 last year.) Likely Average 110

Not many rucks have been able to back up huge years as teams look at ways to put more pressure on them. Gawn is relatively poor when under pressure so i expect teams to try to put some more pressure on him around the ground. While i expect him to still have big games im expecting a drop off in some of these and his base game. As for Goldy i don't expect a return to the big numbers for 2015, but do expect a bounce back in some form. The extra $57k to me is the deciding factor with 2 players that i cannot split on paper.

Ryder - $418k - Implied 77 - Unknown quantity at Port after year off, Poor Bye, DPP, Likely Average 85-90
Nankervis - $366k - Implied 67 - 11 Games, New Team, Expected no1 Ruck, DPP, Likely Average 85-90
Sandilands - $308k - Implied 57 - Proven scorer, Injury magnet, Soft starting draw, Likely Average 100

So from this the benefit of Sandi is huge, $337k from Gawn to Sandi is huge with potential for cash gains aswell, but the injury concern is a worry. If i was to start Sandi i want cover of some form.
Nankervis showed at the end of last year that he had the potential to score 80 plus with limited hitouts, Richmond have limited ruck options so he should see an increased in his hitouts and time around the ball further his potential, i see some potential for him to average 90+ and become a potential forward keeper. He is also 52k cheaper than Ryder and doesn't have the early bye.

The saving from Gawn to Sandi would allow rookie to Nankervis with $100k left over.

If i was to do this though i would not want many other risks in my team, going guns and rookies maybe with the exception of Roughy and Swallow.

[RaisyDaisy]

So TL:DR you're starting Gawn/Sandi with Nank in the forwards like a lot of us :P

[LordSneeze]

So TL:DR you're starting Gawn/Sandi with Nank in the forwards like a lot of us :P

Goldy/Sandi with Nank
Goldy is underpriced, Gawn overpriced. I expect them to come back together this year.

[RaisyDaisy]

Yep that's what I've currently got too

Had Gawn Sandi since Dec but just changed Gawn to Goldy for the same reason you mentioned

[eaglesman]

The way i see it not starting 1 of Gawn or Goldy is really really dangerous as they are likely to be the 2 top rucks this year and are both likely to pull huge numbers on any given week. The low premiums (Grundy Sauce, Martin, Mumford) im ruling out all together and really im looking at either a Set n Forget or SP/MP option.

Super Prems
Gawn - $645k - Implied 119 - High Ceiling (6 games over 150 LY), Prone to poor games (7 games under 100 last year.) Likely average 110
Goldy - $588k - Implied 108 - Proven history,  High Ceiling (2 games over 150 LY, 6 Year before), Prone to poor games (9 games under 100 last year.) Likely Average 110

Not many rucks have been able to back up huge years as teams look at ways to put more pressure on them. Gawn is relatively poor when under pressure so i expect teams to try to put some more pressure on him around the ground. While i expect him to still have big games im expecting a drop off in some of these and his base game. As for Goldy i don't expect a return to the big numbers for 2015, but do expect a bounce back in some form. The extra $57k to me is the deciding factor with 2 players that i cannot split on paper.

Ryder - $418k - Implied 77 - Unknown quantity at Port after year off, Poor Bye, DPP, Likely Average 85-90
Nankervis - $366k - Implied 67 - 11 Games, New Team, Expected no1 Ruck, DPP, Likely Average 85-90
Sandilands - $308k - Implied 57 - Proven scorer, Injury magnet, Soft starting draw, Likely Average 100

So from this the benefit of Sandi is huge, $337k from Gawn to Sandi is huge with potential for cash gains aswell, but the injury concern is a worry. If i was to start Sandi i want cover of some form.
Nankervis showed at the end of last year that he had the potential to score 80 plus with limited hitouts, Richmond have limited ruck options so he should see an increased in his hitouts and time around the ball further his potential, i see some potential for him to average 90+ and become a potential forward keeper. He is also 52k cheaper than Ryder and doesn't have the early bye.

The saving from Gawn to Sandi would allow rookie to Nankervis with $100k left over.

If i was to do this though i would not want many other risks in my team, going guns and rookies maybe with the exception of Roughy and Swallow.

This is great analysis. It's what I think and what most think anyways but it's a nice format to read.
One or two poor games at the right time of year for Gawn and goldy is what I'm banking on in conjunction with my rucks scoring in the manner you have outlined.

[Grufflez]

So he looked good vs a rusty Ryder and a pathetic Port this week..
Who did he look so great against last week?

Good game against Jacobs (for the first half).

IC ty for the info mate.

[Money Shot]

You can only start so many mid pricers before it starts to hurt your overall team.

If O'meara and Swallow play well next week they are almost locks.

Beams and Roughy both look like they could go 100 and 90 respectively which is pushing keeper status so they need to be considered.

Sandi/Nank could be keepers but they are much more risky than the others mentioned.

[GoLions]

You can only start so many mid pricers before it starts to hurt your overall team.

If O'meara and Swallow play well next week they are almost locks.

Beams and Roughy both look like they could go 100 and 90 respectively which is pushing keeper status so they need to be considered.

Sandi/Nank could be keepers but they are much more risky than the others mentioned.

If you think Beams will avg 100 then you definitely do not start him. 115-120 on the other hand...

[LordSneeze]

You can only start so many mid pricers before it starts to hurt your overall team.

If O'meara and Swallow play well next week they are almost locks.

Beams and Roughy both look like they could go 100 and 90 respectively which is pushing keeper status so they need to be considered.

Sandi/Nank could be keepers but they are much more risky than the others mentioned.

If you think Beams will avg 100 then you definitely do not start him. 115-120 on the other hand...

Beams and O'Meara are no locks. Neither are guaranteed premiums or making enough cash if they don't become a premium to be worth a stepping stone IMO.
Roughy and Swallow should be locks. Roughy should be a FWD prem, Swallow should make enough cash to be a stepping stone.

I know quite a few people will take  quite a few MP players and likely start strongly, but they will be light on rookies and not make enough cash to keep improving their teams compared to those that take the calculated MP options. Im expecting the MP teams to be overrun by much strong super prem teams at around Round 18-19

[RaisyDaisy]

Yeah but a big reason there is so much mid price madness is because there is flower all rookies

Having Beams/JOM/Swallow at M6-8 and Rough/Nank F4-5 etc is because we have no rookies good enough to field. It's why I'm only starting 2 def prems

Could be the first year in a long time where mid price madness is the way to go

[shaker]

W.H.E Schoenmakers Turner are like more expensive rookies that should be playing and I'm sure 2 or 3 cheapies will pop up the FWD'S are not concerning me that much and mid pricers have ruined seasons past for me so will avoid as many as possible

[LordSneeze]

Yeah but a big reason there is so much mid price madness is because there is flower all rookies

Having Beams/JOM/Swallow at M6-8 and Rough/Nank F4-5 etc is because we have no rookies good enough to field. It's why I'm only starting 2 def prems

Could be the first year in a long time where mid price madness is the way to go

I would disagree, there are always rookies that show up. There are rookies IMO that have a strong chance to play, the MP madness is only a backup option if they don't get up.

[Holz]

Yeah but a big reason there is so much mid price madness is because there is flower all rookies

Having Beams/JOM/Swallow at M6-8 and Rough/Nank F4-5 etc is because we have no rookies good enough to field. It's why I'm only starting 2 def prems

Could be the first year in a long time where mid price madness is the way to go

I would disagree, there are always rookies that show up. There are rookies IMO that have a strong chance to play, the MP madness is only a backup option if they don't get up.

there is a big difference in my books in a mid pricer who your hoping to break out like a billings steele or last year a Lonergan and then a premium player who is coming back from injury.

Jaeger averaged 98 his last season (2nd year)

if he can go 90+ ill be happy enough.

Sandi is just too good to pass up. If he can go 95+ will make some quick coin and will use him as a stepping stone to bring in gawn. That 340k gap i reckon will close to 150k at some point and thats easily made up with a double trade.

[crowls]

You can only start so many mid pricers before it starts to hurt your overall team.

If O'meara and Swallow play well next week they are almost locks.

Beams and Roughy both look like they could go 100 and 90 respectively which is pushing keeper status so they need to be considered.

Sandi/Nank could be keepers but they are much more risky than the others mentioned.

If you think Beams will avg 100 then you definitely do not start him. 115-120 on the other hand...

Beams and O'Meara are no locks. Neither are guaranteed premiums or making enough cash if they don't become a premium to be worth a stepping stone IMO.
Roughy and Swallow should be locks. Roughy should be a FWD prem, Swallow should make enough cash to be a stepping stone.

I know quite a few people will take  quite a few MP players and likely start strongly, but they will be light on rookies and not make enough cash to keep improving their teams compared to those that take the calculated MP options. Im expecting the MP teams to be overrun by much strong super prem teams at around Round 18-19

Agree with your points LS but it is hard to ignore the MP premo's on offer.   I like the way to categorise each player and this is a great way to clarify in coaches minds the purpose of the selection. 


I disagree with Beams assessment.  He has the runs on the board.  If he plays the season will be top 10, if plays until byes will be stepping stone.  If he is injured prior to byes we lose.   For me probably the better choice than swallow.     


JOM is POTENTIAL.  However other players who have scored as high as him in their early career have gone on to become Premo and SuperPremo.   Here we have an injury risk and a development risk.  Individual choice on whether to start him or not.   He has been in and out of my team and I am still uncertain which way I will go.   Probably end up depending on number of mid rookie starters.