Trust The Process

[uncleswagy]

What are you expecting out of Murph?

high 90s low 100s for mine, think hes past the days of being a 110 plus top end premo

[fasttrack13]

What are you expecting out of Murph?

high 90s low 100s for mine, think hes past the days of being a 110 plus top end premo

Lucky to get close to 100

[uncleswagy]

What are you expecting out of Murph?

high 90s low 100s for mine, think hes past the days of being a 110 plus top end premo

Lucky to get close to 100

your probably right, i was talking his ceiling, realistically hes probably high 80s low 90s, wont be picking him my self

[Mat0369]

yeah i agree that he probably will get injured at some point, but do you want to leave 200k on your bench for 10 weeks potentially not playing as cover for another injury prone player? back to the original point, better off having ryder as a forward swing or not going sandi at all for me

or tim english(130k) on the bench if hes playing round 1..

I'd rather have him in my team heading into round 1 because it's harder to find the cash to upgrade to Witts then downgrading him if he isn't named round 1. I'm not touching Ryder to start the season, even at his best he was super inconsistent. If I'm going to grab him for cover I could do it later in the season when he has bottomed out. If Witts isn't named I'm grabbing a playing rookie if there is one or just going with someone like English since the Dogs like to play their rookies.

Pittonet/Fitzpatrick are the other two considering Ceglar is out for the season with the ACL injury.

On rucks, I'm actually looking at swapping Gawn out to Goldy. Top rucks rarely ever back up, the last guys to do it year in year out were Cox and Sandi. Since then Goldy has been the closest to doing it. I pretty much used to post every off-season a buyer beware. I'll see if I can find it with the stats and names to back it up.

What are you expecting out of Murph?

The stories of his demise are greatly exaggerated. He isn't going to average 80's on the year. Here are the pros and cons for picking him

Pros

*First uninterrupted pre-season in forever. He has had an off-season surgery every year which means he has gone in underdone. The ankle injury actually helped him last year in the long run as it has allowed him to heal up and head into this season fit and firing. On this alone I think he is worth picking.

*He is a proven scorer, he has been good for 105 most years since 2009. Last year was his lowest average since his rookie season. He one game he got injured in the first two minutes and the gastro game where it also looked like he was concussed.

*He hits the scoreboard. He kicked goals in 7 out of 10 games last year. That was one of his key strengths when he was at his best, he was one of the best goal kicking mids in the competition.

*He can and does break the tag. The other thing is more teams are abandoning the practice altogether so he should have a free reign. He also had over 20 touches in all but 2 games last year, both of those were the injury games. So he was playing outside and still racking up the pill which proves this since outside mids are supposed to be the easiest to tag.

Cons

*Uncertainty on his role. Last year he didn't win anywhere near as much contested ball as he had in the past. This was by design, Murphy is arguably the best user by foot in the team, they needed to get him delivering the ball on the outside and with Cripps dishing out a lot of the hard ball gets to the runners Murphy was used outside. However, with a drop in contested possessions there is also a substantial drop in his scoring. We also have a pretty terrible forward line so a lot of these disposals are worth next to no points as he either has to go short and wide.

*He hasn't played a full season since 2011. A lot of the injuries Murphy has had have been collision injuries, but there is a risk he gets injured again.

*Uncertainty in the ruck. Phillips is on the LTI list and Kreuz isn't exactly durable. There is quite a realistic possibility he is roving to a combination of Daniel Gorringe, Sam Rowe and Levi Casboult. 

He might not hit 110 again, but I think he hits 100. He probably gets closer to 105 on the season.


I just did a quick look up and have a new pro for Murphy

Lingering shoulder concerns meant Murphy played more of an outside midfielder role early last season, but having overcome those issues, Murphy flagged not only more time as an inside midfielder, but also rests closer to goal.

"Certainly this year I've done a lot of training inside so I'll play a lot inside mid, filter on a wing, and then also go deep forward as well," Murphy told RSN on Tuesday.

So basically the shoulder he injured in the final game against Melbourne, saw him have no pre-season and in doubt for round 1. More contested pill means more points. I'm pretty confident as long as he doesn't get injured he hits 100.

[Mat0369]

Back on the top price rucks, the following guys have crashed and burnt after being top rucks the prior season

Goldstein (113 to a 93 average before bouncing back)
Minson
Mummy
Maric
Jacobs
Nic Nat
Stef Martin

You also have guys like Big Boy and Leuenberger who were rising and then fell off a cliff score wise for different reasons.

Goldstein has probably been the most consistent since Sandi/Cox. Most of those guys on that list were the warhorse single rucks who would have had a lot of mileage on the legs the following season. They would play high game time and get banged up with the way rucks are involved in a fair amount of collisions per game. The guys taking a punt on someone like Grundy could come out big in the end.

[Mat0369]

Just had another fiddle around with my team.

Doc, Adams, Hodge, McGrath, Keefe, Hibberd, Vickers-Willis, Ryan
Danger, Pendles, Hanners, Sloane, Fyfe, Murphy, Swallow, Myers, Bowes, Fisher, Graham
Goldy, Sani, Witts
Dahl, Macrae, McClugg, White, Ainsworth, Thomas, Stewart, Pickett

27k in the bank. I decided to load up in the mids to see how it would look and I kind of like it.

[enzedder]

Looks good to me.
Loading up mids is the way to go I think providing all the rookie options come through up front and down back.
As for rucks I don't think Gawn will fall into the one year wonder category. He stated that he wanted to be the number 1 ruck pre 2016 and now that he is I don't think he's due for a fall just because others have before him. Gawn has only played 61 games. Since he became #1 ruck at Melbourne in round 10 2015 he has been an absolute beast. No third up rule and with hitting his prime years he's worth every cent IMO.

[Mat0369]

On Gawn, the same thing has been said about a number of guys. Goldy after his first break out, Nic Nat, Sauce, Mummy, Stef..... I think Goldy is the only one to have backed it up in the past, so if I had to start one I have flipped from Gawn to Goldstein for that specific reason.

[enzedder]

On Gawn, the same thing has been said about a number of guys. Goldy after his first break out, Nic Nat, Sauce, Mummy, Stef..... I think Goldy is the only one to have backed it up in the past, so if I had to start one I have flipped from Gawn to Goldstein for that specific reason.

Nic Nat 2012 114 ave, 2013 only played 11 games N/A...but followed with 90, 103, 105 averages
Maric 2012 113 ave,  dropped to 97 ave 2013 (-16)
Mumford 2011 ave 113, dropped to 91 2012 from 14 games but always struggled with injury (-22)
Sauce 2014 ave 115, dropped to 107 2015 (-8)
Stef 2015 ave 110, dropped to 89 2016 (-21) heavy collision and carried an injury throughout the year that impacted movement
Minson 2013 114 ave, dropped to 93 2014 (-21) was a veteran the year he had his big season... an anomaly.
Gawn 2016 118 ave.... ?

I see your point you're making with the above but Gawn (considering his durability/soundness of body to date and scoring dominance with 118 the best of breakout seasons above) looks set to break the pattern. Throw in no third man up and he doesn't drop points either....gains if anything.
I'm happy to roll the dice with Gawn... think he'll be the first picked ruck for quite a few years.
A lot of the above were hopeful picks to back it up but I've got confidence in Maxxy.

[Mat0369]

The thing is I wouldn't call Gawns body sound either. I think he has had 3 knee reconstructions? His body was one of the main reasons he was unsighted early in his career. He will be in his 8th season which means he is in his prime for a ruck, but I think there is a greater chance he regresses compared to Goldstein maintaining his average.

The  no third man up should help him, the same way it would help Sandi being so tall. However, he has never played that much football in terms of game time in his life. That is something a lot of those other rucks have in common on that list. Being on the ground for 90% of the game for 22 weeks and having guys crashing into you takes a toll on the body. Goldy could finally break down as well, but he is one of the only guys since Dean Cox to back it up and stay in the top couple of rucks in the comp.

[Mat0369]

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/sport/afl/at-last-gold-coast-suns-have-their-witts-about-them-in-the-ruck/news-story/dd233a737c993388a99ab6d61e83b2f7

The Suns are hoping their low-profile trade last October of former Collingwood giant Jarrod Witts will this season lead them into a first finals appearance.

The exchange turned very few heads considering Witts has played 40 games in four seasons with the Magpies. But his standout preparation in new colours is shaping as the beginning of something big, according to the Suns.

Gold Coast general manager of football operations Marcus Ashcroft yesterday told The Australian Witts had elevated himself to the No 1 ruck spot following an outstanding pre-season.

“He’s a massive man â€" six foot nine in the old â€" and he’s an elite runner,” Ashcroft said. “He can run two kilometres as well as any of our midfielders and we think the new ruck rule will help him.

“He’ll play for us on Sunday against Brisbane and at the moment, he’s the front runner to be our first-choice ruckman once the season proper starts.”

Ashcroft said the former Sydney University player had thrived since leaving the Pies.

“He loves it living here, he’s driven to do well, and he’s done a mountain of work,” Ashcroft said.

Witts, 24, was swapped to the Suns for third and fourth-round national draft choices after just two games last year. Gold Coast’s timing could not have been better as their only other two recognised ruckmen are on the comeback from injuries and will not be available to start the pre-season competition, the JLT Community series.

Tom Nicholls is on the way back from calf and hip flexor issues and is not expected to be available until next month, while back-up big man Daniel Currie, who played four senior games in 2016, is being managed for knee tendinitis.

Nicholls has been the club’s main tap ruckman in recent seasons but he’s managed just 15 games over each of the past two seasons, forcing the Suns to pinch hit with several options including rookie Keegan Brooksby, Peter Wright, Sam Day and Tom Lynch.

One of Gold Coast’s most vulnerable areas since joining the competition in 2011 has been in the ruck, where their hit-out statistics make for difficult reading.

Last year Melbourne’s Max Gawn led the competition with 928 tap outs in 22 games, followed by North Melbourne’s Todd Goldstein with 804 in 22 games, and Giants ruckman Shane Mumford, who accumulated 799 in 23 games.

Nicholls had 337 taps, and was 18th in that statistical bracket. In fact no Gold Coast big man has finished higher than Zac Smith’s finish of 17th with 327 from 20 games in the club’s inaugural season. Smith played his first season with Geelong last year.

“Our ruck division has been inconsistent and it hasn’t been helped by injuries,” Ashcroft said. “It certainly makes it difficult to get by without key ruckmen and hopefully we’re on top of that now.”



stole this from Bigfooty, certainly one to consider. with Witts R2 it helps strengthen my backline

I guess the second bolded bit is the worry though

[Money Shot]

Although i won't  pick Witts that post would make me a lot more confident if I was.

[Mat0369]

It's more to do with my earlier call that Nicholls would likely get injured before round 1. Turns out I'm right.

[Money Shot]

It's more to do with my earlier call that Nicholls would likely get injured before round 1. Turns out I'm right.

Hahaha yeah he's been unlucky with his injuries that's for sure.

[AaronKirk]

Nicholls is always injured and Currie isn't good enough when fit to take the number 1 mantle.

Witts is a risky but ever improving mid price option to consider.