Which Fallen Prems?

[RaisyDaisy]

Alright, so I'm not getting burnt ever again on Mid Price breakout candidates, but this thread is about genuine proven guns who are cheap due to injury

The ones that I can see so far

DEF
Hamish Hartlett $423,700
Bob Murphy $392,300
Michael Johnson $341,700

MID
Jobe Watson $453,300
Dayne Beams $432,500
Marc Murphy $432,500
David Swallow $280,200

RUC
Aaron Sandilands $308,200

FWD
Paddy Ryder (RUC) $418,100
Harley Bennell (MID) $387,000
Jarryd Roughead $367,100

Guys like Arma, Hanley, Elliott etc are cheap, but not good enough to turn into keepers so fall into the mid price category which I am not falling for again!

Which of these fallen prems are worth starting?

Hartlett, Beams, Swallow, Sandi, Ryder and Roughead are the ones I am looking at for now. Swallow I don't think will be good enough to turn into a keeper, but like Libba last year he does have some good history and will be a good stepping stone.

Are there any other fallen prems that are good enough to start and turn into keepers all year?

[GoLions]

Beams, Bob, and Swallow looking good to me. Maybe Sandi, but if I did then I'd probably have to start Ryder as well, and I'm just not sure if I can make that kind of commitment yet.

[RaisyDaisy]

Added Bob to the list, forgot him

My initial thoughts are that besides Dahl and Macrae, I just don't like any of the other prem forward options

NRoo and JJK I don't think I would start at their prices, Deledio can't be trusted and Buddy I think will drop in value. Everyone else meh, and that's why I am initially keen on starting Sandi at such a cheap price and starting Ryder in the forwards because at 418k he should be able to average 90+ easy as Ports number 1 ruck making him a prem forward, whilst covering rucks at the same time

[GoLions]

Added Bob to the list, forgot him

My initial thoughts are that besides Dahl and Macrae, I just don't like any of the other prem forward options

NRoo and JJK I don't think I would start at their prices, Deledio can't be trusted and Buddy I think will drop in value. Everyone else meh, and that's why I am initially keen on starting Sandi at such a cheap price and starting Ryder in the forwards because at 418k he should be able to average 90+ easy as Ports number 1 ruck making him a prem forward, whilst covering rucks at the same time

Yeah agree with you for the most part regarding forwards. Don't mind Caddy as well, think he will go well at the Tigs. Probably a couple I'm forgetting, but yeah, not as many safe options as there have been in the past!

[Spite]

Added Bob to the list, forgot him

My initial thoughts are that besides Dahl and Macrae, I just don't like any of the other prem forward options

NRoo and JJK I don't think I would start at their prices, Deledio can't be trusted and Buddy I think will drop in value. Everyone else meh, and that's why I am initially keen on starting Sandi at such a cheap price and starting Ryder in the forwards because at 418k he should be able to average 90+ easy as Ports number 1 ruck making him a prem forward, whilst covering rucks at the same time

The problem I have is that the round 9 bye will probably be treated like a normal week, in which case you just get a rookie score that week and no one else is at that disadvantage. It's hard to swallow right now. Otherwise yes, your tactic was exactly what I was thinking initially

[iZander]

although his drop was for no apparent reason i really like Sam Jacobs, 86 average last year but 115 and 107 the years before, will consider him although i like some other ruck options as well

[Gigantor]

although his drop was for no apparent reason Dangerfield ,i really like Sam Jacobs, 86 average last year but 115 and 107 the years before, will consider him although i like some other ruck options as well

ftfy  ;D

[quinny88]

Hartlett tempting although I'd like to know what the cause for his drop off this year was?
Bob Murphy almost a lock for me if he lines up round 1
Beams a no brainer in the mids and Swallow likely to be in my side too at that price.
Sandi a consistent 100+ player if he can stay fit so will most likely go with him at R2.
I will only consider Ryder if it's clear Lobbe will be playing in the 2's.
Bennell and Rough both locks for me if they play round 1.

I too won't be rolling the dice on any "potential breakouts" I've learned my lesson, but these guys all have proven scoring history so am happy to roll the dice on a few

[enzedder]

Hartlett - not considering at all... has he ever been a proven premium... poor man's premium.
Bob- worth considering at that price but with the defenders on offer he will only be in mine if I can't afford better.
Johnson - same as Hartlett, not a true premium, too inconsistent.
Watson - yesterday's hero, fools gold IMO
Beams - lock. If this guy is up and running I'd start him at 600k.
Murphy - similar to Watson, teaser.
Swallow - lock. Must have as will make money and score well. Stepping stone.
Sandi - maybe. Gawn and Goldy if affordable. Sandi is plan b.
Ryder - maybe in light of fwd situation. He's a good option with DPP cover.
Bennell - ? Pre season injury issues again. If going r1 might be too good to pass up. Risky though.
Roughead - If playing R1 think you have to pick him. Haven't considered him because it seems unlikely.

[shaker]

Beams seems a no brainer but wary of players coming off LTI after sticking with Libba the whole year don't really want to many in team , Roughy well I think the club and everyone will just be happy that he is well again won't be expecting him to be back to his best next year if he plays and Sandi no thanks I can't believe someone that big can still be playing at his age and none of the others mentioned appeal to me at this stage

[Holz]

Dayne Beams and thats it.

not going near Sandi im not wasting trades in the rucks.

Goldy Grundy too good value both underpriced.

mids im going Premo

[iZander]

although his drop was for no apparent reason Dangerfield ,i really like Sam Jacobs, 86 average last year but 115 and 107 the years before, will consider him although i like some other ruck options as well

ftfy  ;D

Doubt thatll make that much difference..we didnt see a huge jump in score for the Geelong ruckmen when he joined.

[LordSneeze]

Beams seems a no brainer but wary of players coming off LTI after sticking with Libba the whole year don't really want to many in team , Roughy well I think the club and everyone will just be happy that he is well again won't be expecting him to be back to his best next year if he plays and Sandi no thanks I can't believe someone that big can still be playing at his age and none of the others mentioned appeal to me at this stage

This is how I feel as well, last year I got burnt by a few of these.

There is talk of going Ryder & Sandi with a R/F benchie, but I just don't see the appeal in this. A previous 90-100 average player priced at 85ish. He has the potential to be a premium in the Fwds if he puts everything together, but it is also equally likely you will be holding a 85-90. You do this so you can move Ryder to the Rucks when Sandi gets injured, but doing that is essentially meaning you will be playing a non premium in a ruck position, losing out on points vs everyone else, whilst also having to use a trade.
To make this worthwhile you need
Sandi 100 Average and enough cash to trade to a premium without injuries
Ryder 95+

[RaisyDaisy]

Bit harsh on Hartlett enzed

In terms of defender numbers, he's had years of prem scoring. If he looks switched on preseason, he's in for me

[LordSneeze]

although his drop was for no apparent reason Dangerfield ,i really like Sam Jacobs, 86 average last year but 115 and 107 the years before, will consider him although i like some other ruck options as well

ftfy  ;D

Doubt thatll make that much difference..we didnt see a huge jump in score for the Geelong ruckmen when he joined.

Jacobs dropped in total hitouts by 15%, combine that with the drop in HOTA and you have your reason for the drop.
If he increases his hitouts back to 37 a game then I would think a 95-100 average is likely. Unlikely to be able to get over 100 average as he doesn't do enough around the ground to make up the extra points.