LaHug's Captains 2016 - Round 23 - THE END

[LaHug]

SPECIAL NOTE
Hi all. Thanks for reading my write-ups over the past 23 weeks. It's a hell of a lot of work but I don't do it for money or for recognition, I do it for the love of footy, of statistics, and of writing.
If you've benefited from my posts or even just enjoyed reading them, please consider supporting my fundraising efforts by donating to Cancer Council Victoria here: https://my-own-way-2016.everydayhero.com/au/william-huggett

Round 23. What a massive year! Let's go out with a bang! For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. If I have the time (and they're relevant), I'll get to any requests you have too!

The facts & thoughts:

Priddis
Last 3: 111, 98, 106 (105 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 114, 70, 136 (107 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 105, 70, 105 (93 avg)

Some decent form should see Priddis run out the fantasy season with another ton. Prediction - 105

Gaff
Last 3: 115, 86, 57 (86 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 66, 62, 152 (93 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 44, 62, 76 (61 avg)

Was good last week but Gaff sucks against the Crows. He should struggle here. Prediction - 70

Dangerfield
Last 3: 112, 93, 105 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 71, 101, 92 (88 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 135, 118, 139 (131 avg)

I hope I don't step on anyone's toes here but, playing at the Cattery, Dangerfield is the perfect VC option for SuperCoach. When it comes to the AF/DT side of things, he's a good pick too, but his current form is less than desirable. Prediction - 120

Selwood
Last 3: 102, 108, 79 (96 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 75, 121, 126 (107 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 91, 106, 95 (97 avg)

Joel's been a bit quiet in recent weeks but has a great history against the Dees prior to last year's shock loss. I can't see a repeat of last year so Selwood should be good. Prediction - 115

Gawn
Last 3: 105, 120, 144 (123 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 139, 96 (118 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 139, 96 (118 avg)

It's been a while since I've actually made a ruckman my captain but you have to consider it this week. Gawn has had a great season, can score big, and has a great record against the Cats. Geelong don't have the best ruck stocks either. Prediction - 130

Merrett
Last 3: 148, 127, 89 (121 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 98, 80, 79 (86 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 152, 115, 98 (122 avg)

Look at that form! The only thing worrying me is the record against the Blues but I feel he can overcome it. Prediction - 125

Zaharakis
Last 3: 135, 136, 90 (120 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 98, 88, 79 (88 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 67, 103, 98 (89 avg)

Speaking of form, here's another guy on fire. However, the chance for a tag against the Blues this week is way too high. Prediction - 95

Gibbs
Last 3: 119, 76, 100 (98 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 125, 86, 87 (99 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 119, 100, 100 (106 avg)

Top mid vs. Essendon. It's Round 23 so you should know the drill by now. You have to consider him on that alone. Prediction - 120

J.P. Kennedy
Last 3: 102, 118, 105 (108 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 114, 107, 55 (92 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 105, 109, 131 (115 avg)

Earlier this year, Richmond were a tough team to score against. Last week, 6 tons and 3 over 120 said otherwise. The Tigers are toast and the Swans want percentage to lock away top spot. Kennedy's form is decent and he'll lift for the big win. Prediction - 115

Hannebery
Last 3: 105, 128, 129 (121 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 120, 96, 143 (120 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 129, 90, 78 (99 avg)

Much quieter than I thought he'd be last week but fantastic against the Tigers. Take the above into account and it could be big. Prediction - 130

Parker
Last 3: 96, 144, 128 (123 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 69, 112, 116 (99 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 128, 116, 111 (118 avg)

Yet another Swan that could go big. Has history against the Tigers and had scored very highly before last week. Loves the SCG too. Prediction - 125

T. Mitchell
Last 3: 97, 90, 139 (109 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 61, 48, 138 (82 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 139, 61, 109 (103 avg)

Too much risk of being used in a tagging role (tagging Cotchin kills the Tigers) and is a bit down on form anyway. Prediction - 95

D. Martin
Last 3: 86, 132, 110 (109 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 123, 69, 90 (94 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 69, 112, 106 (96 avg)

Has been big against the Swans in the past plus he's had great scores this year. Last week was very disappointing but I'm backing him to bounce back for a season finale. Prediction - 110

Hall
Last 3: 100, 108, 102 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 95, 65, 69 (76 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 107, 115, 59 (94 avg)

You can't knock a run of tons but they've all been low. This week will be no different. Prediction - 100

Gray
Last 3: 112, 81, 40 (78 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 82, 97, 71 (83 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 82, 97, 32 (70 avg)

Gold Coast are so bad right now that having Collingwood players in your team last week meant you couldn't lose your finals match up. This week would be the same except there are very few good Port players. Gray bounced back last week and will take advantage of the Suns this week. Prediction - 110

Wines
Last 3: 113, 107, 111 (110 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 61, 44, 101 (69 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 61, 101 (81 avg)

Of course, you could do even better by looking at the in-form Power player. 110 over his last three plus a little bonus because he's playing the Suns. Prediction - 120

Goldstein
Last 3: 75, 73, 114 (87 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 137, 93, 83 (104 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 114, 97, 69 (93 avg)

Goldy was huge in the last matchup against the Giants but his form is way too bad to consider this week. Prediction - 105

Shaw
Last 3: 124, 73, 68 (88 avg)
Last 3 against North: 128, 123, 59 (103 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 116, 131, 77 (108 avg)

Welcome back to form, Heater! A good record against the Roos and at Etihad gives Shaw the perfect platform to finisht the season strongly. Prediction - 125

Steven
Last 3: 103, 73, 64 (80 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 97, 108, 79 (95 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 73, 73, 145 (97 avg)

Disappointing finish to the season for Steven (pretty much since I traded him in - sorry) and he's not that great against Brisbane. With the added risk of a Robinson tag, I'd look elsewhere. Prediction - 100

Montagna
Last 3: 126, 114, 100 (113 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 114, 158, 112 (128 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 114, 68, 86 (89 avg)

The countless 50/50 decisions I've had this year where I've chosen against Montagna have really hurt the past few weeks. He's in great form and is huge against the Lions. He's absolutely no risk of a tag and the Lions are, well, the Lions. Prediction - 125

Riewoldt
Last 3: 102, 112, 117 (110 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 102, 59, 89 (83 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 112, 87, 107 (102 avg)

Also in pretty good form but not quite the same ceiling as Montagna this week. Prediction - 110

Rockliff
Last 3: 123, 174, 127 (141 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 90, 76, 144 (103 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 179, 184, 88 (150 avg)

Remember a few weeks ago when I said that I'm never not captaining Rocky at Etihad again? I meant it. Ignoring the Richmond game (because Richmond sucked so so bad), the Saints have given up some big scores of late. I went the extra mile and checked out those poor recent scores against the Saints. The 90 was Rocky playing up forward (not happening this season) and the 76 was a tag (won't happen this week). Give us one more big one, Rocky. Prediction - 140

Zorko
Last 3: 65, 125, 82 (91 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 93, 122, 51 (89 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 102, 104, 107 (104 avg)

Not touching him after last week but I think he's good enough at Etihad for a ton. Prediction - 105

S. Martin
Last 3: 106, 66, 130 (101 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 112, 110, 42 (88 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 130, 81, 92 (101 avg)

Hickey is no joke to match up against but Stef Martin is too good as a solo ruck. He'll be great again. Prediction - 110

Lewis
Last 3: 100, 126, 98 (108 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 125, 149, 120 (131 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 126, 98, 113 (112 avg)

His recent form is not that exciting but Jordan Lewis is too good against the Pies to ignore. Strongly consider. Prediction - 120

Pendlebury
Last 3: 145, 91, 67 (101 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 152, 89, 106 (116 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 67, 148, 124 (113 avg)

Well, he's back, and he's been huge against the Hawks before. Loves the G too but this year has been so up and down I'm cautious. Probably a great pick if you need a POD to win your final. Prediction - 125

Sidebottom
Last 3: 104, 91, 106 (100 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 106, 125, 89 (107 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 106, 109, 64 (93 avg)

Not much great but not much bad either for Sidebum this week. Prediction - 105

Treloar
Last 3: 134, 128, 115 (126 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 108, 120, 39 (89 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 115, 113, 75 (101 avg)

Treloar's form is too good to ignore. Watch him finish the year strong as one of the better fantasy picks for 2016. Prediction - 125

Neale
Last 3: 169, 105, 91 (122 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 106, 102, 82 (97 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 105, 91, 131 (109 avg)

Lachie Neale is 21 disposals away from a record and you'd have to back him to get there based on current form. He doesn't have enough against the Doggies or at home to excite me this week. Prediction - 110

Hunter
Last 3: 111, 95, 75 (94 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 108, 44 (76 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 92, 103 (98 avg)

Hunter's probably had his best year yet and will improve again next year but not enough to lock in for the captain spot this week. Prediction - 100

Boyd
Last 3: 117, 85, 87 (96 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 92, 99, 133 (108 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 118, 80, 133 (110 avg)

Once upon a time, Boyd vs. Freo at Subi was a lock. He's past those days now but he should get one last ton to finish the season. Prediction - 105

Bontempelli
Last 3: 102, 137, 118 (119 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 80, 79, 68 (76 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 91 (91 avg)

Once he was freed up from the forward line, Bont started getting consistent tons. Has to be a serious consideration for starting mid next year. As for this year, I can't see why he wouldn't finish with another ton. Prediction - 110

LAHUG'S ROUGHIE OF THE WEEK!

Did I jinx Buddy? One last chance to bounce back. In this segment, I'll talk about someone that, partly because of stats and mostly because of gut feeling, I think will go huge this week. It'll usually be somebody that you wouldn't usually give the C to but, if you have him and are feeling brave, might be worth a look.

Cripps
Last 3: 139, 90, 131 (120 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 81, 22,  (52 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 139, 131, 109 (126 avg)

I said above that Gibbs is the top mid playing Essendon but is he? Patrick Cripps is arguably Carlton's best player already and is on fire recently, particularly at the G. Put him against Essendon and we have potential for a massive score. Gutsy prediction - 155

LAHUG'S POTATO FORECAST!

Priddis was much better than I thought he'd be. Let's see if I can nail this last one. Basically, I'll highlight a premium that is probably in plenty of teams but is both down on form and has some terrible history against this week's opponent. Get ready for a shocker of a score!

Cotchin
Last 3: 81, 78, 101 (87 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 81, 91, 86 (86 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 91, 91, 101 (94 avg)

Cotch was a serious option to bring in for the many injured players late in the season. You'd be kicking yourself if you got him. He's limped his way to the finish and I'm backing that the Swans tag him to avoid any chance of a Richmond upset. Spudiction - 60

The verdict:
1.   Rockliff (140)

2.   Gawn (130)
3.   Hannebery (130)
4.   Montagna (125)
5.   Treloar (125)

Requests:

Grundy - Requested by colmullet
Last 3: 142, 119, 99 (120 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 40, 91 (66 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 99, 127, 102 (109 avg)

Ignore the scores vs. the Hawks as they were 2014 and 2013. The real numbers to highlight are his current form (120 over the last three) and his form since the bye (114 over 9 games with a low of 82 and only two scores under 100). Grundy has had a huge second half of the season and is probably second only to Gawn in the ruck stocks right now. Without much form to go by, I'll look at rucks against the Hawks. Nic Nat had 49 in half a game, Lycett got 82, and Goldstein got 73 the week before. Nothing too flash, sadly, but the form alone says he'll at least be good. Prediction - 115

S. Mitchell - Requested by jvalles69
Last 3: 70, 126, 72 (89 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 108, 100, 80 (96 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 126, 72, 68 (89 avg)

You're right that Sammy Mitchell used to be a regular but he's drifted away of late. He's been slowing down recently, with two 70s in his last three, which automatically makes him a no-go for captain. He's ok against Collingwood but ok isn't good enough with those numbers by his name. There's every chance he gets a good score similar to that 126 because he's back at the G and against the Pies who aren't tagging strongly (Greenwood tagged Bont a couple of weeks ago but the Bont still scored 137). However, there are too many negatives. Prediction - 90



I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
Please follow this link: https://my-own-way-2016.everydayhero.com/au/william-huggett

[Bill Manspeaker]

gotta go with Rocky again. thanks for the hard work all year Huggy. appreciate it every time!

[Dudge]

Thanks mate, you are a true legend :)

[colmullet]

Can i get a prediction on Grundy? :p

[Grazz]

Onya Huggy, thanks mate. ;)

[Thunderbolts]

Another great reading for the year! Onya Huggy for all of it this year and you can't go past picking the PIG as captain!!!  8)

[j959]

Another great reading for the year! Onya Huggy for all of it this year and you can't go past picking the PIG as captain!!!  8)

+1

Cheers Huggy-bear, thanks for doing this all season long - it is appreciated and valued!!!  ;)

[Bill Manspeaker]

j9, you've done it! 12:34:56

I've tried a few times but couldn't get it ;D

[LaHug]

Can i get a prediction on Grundy? :p

I'll hopefully get one up tonight (working 3pm-3am at work - I'll probably have some spare moments).

[LaHug]

Can i get a prediction on Grundy? :p

Done mate.

Grundy - Requested by colmullet
Last 3: 142, 119, 99 (120 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 40, 91 (66 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 99, 127, 102 (109 avg)

Ignore the scores vs. the Hawks as they were 2014 and 2013. The real numbers to highlight are his current form (120 over the last three) and his form since the bye (114 over 9 games with a low of 82 and only two scores under 100). Grundy has had a huge second half of the season and is probably second only to Gawn in the ruck stocks right now. Without much form to go by, I'll look at rucks against the Hawks. Nic Nat had 49 in half a game, Lycett got 82, and Goldstein got 73 the week before. Nothing too flash, sadly, but the form alone says he'll at least be good. Prediction - 115

[colmullet]

Thanks man, always enjoy reading these every week!

[jvalles69]

Thanks for all he hard work!  Rocky fo sho!

A request if you get the chance, this guy used to be in your mix on a weekly basis, is Sammy Mitchell a stud or a dud this week?  ;D

[LaHug]

Thanks for all he hard work!  Rocky fo sho!

A request if you get the chance, this guy used to be in your mix on a weekly basis, is Sammy Mitchell a stud or a dud this week?  ;D

S. Mitchell - Requested by jvalles69
Last 3: 70, 126, 72 (89 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 108, 100, 80 (96 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 126, 72, 68 (89 avg)

You're right that Sammy Mitchell used to be a regular but he's drifted away of late. He's been slowing down recently, with two 70s in his last three, which automatically makes him a no-go for captain. He's ok against Collingwood but ok isn't good enough with those numbers by his name. There's every chance he gets a good score similar to that 126 because he's back at the G and against the Pies who aren't tagging strongly (Greenwood tagged Bont a couple of weeks ago but the Bont still scored 137). However, there are too many negatives. Prediction - 90

[jvalles69]

Thanks for all he hard work!  Rocky fo sho!

A request if you get the chance, this guy used to be in your mix on a weekly basis, is Sammy Mitchell a stud or a dud this week?  ;D

S. Mitchell - Requested by jvalles69
Last 3: 70, 126, 72 (89 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 108, 100, 80 (96 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 126, 72, 68 (89 avg)

You're right that Sammy Mitchell used to be a regular but he's drifted away of late. He's been slowing down recently, with two 70s in his last three, which automatically makes him a no-go for captain. He's ok against Collingwood but ok isn't good enough with those numbers by his name. There's every chance he gets a good score similar to that 126 because he's back at the G and against the Pies who aren't tagging strongly (Greenwood tagged Bont a couple of weeks ago but the Bont still scored 137). However, there are too many negatives. Prediction - 90

Cheers mate.  The request was more to decide whether to keep him or trade hims this week!  ;D

[LaHug]

Thanks for all he hard work!  Rocky fo sho!

A request if you get the chance, this guy used to be in your mix on a weekly basis, is Sammy Mitchell a stud or a dud this week?  ;D

S. Mitchell - Requested by jvalles69
Last 3: 70, 126, 72 (89 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 108, 100, 80 (96 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 126, 72, 68 (89 avg)

You're right that Sammy Mitchell used to be a regular but he's drifted away of late. He's been slowing down recently, with two 70s in his last three, which automatically makes him a no-go for captain. He's ok against Collingwood but ok isn't good enough with those numbers by his name. There's every chance he gets a good score similar to that 126 because he's back at the G and against the Pies who aren't tagging strongly (Greenwood tagged Bont a couple of weeks ago but the Bont still scored 137). However, there are too many negatives. Prediction - 90

Cheers mate.  The request was more to decide whether to keep him or trade hims this week!  ;D

:O Abusing my good nature!!!

Nah, I figured.