2017 Bargain speculation

[Hoggyz_a_legend]

System down at work = SC 2017 research.

I came up with the following players:

No Games- H Bennell, D.Swallow, C.Yarran, O’Meara, McCarthy, Colquhoun, Scharenberg, T.Menzel, Black, C.Sheehan, Both McKays, Barrett, J.Pickett, Gore, A.Johnson, Nielsen, Vickers-Willis, Ahern, Freeman, Bonner, A.Morgan, Wigg, Durdin, Hibberd, Balic.

Played less than 10 games- Goodyear, K.Collins, Weideman, K.Turner, T.McKenzie (only if he gets a rebounding role), Vardy (only if he’s traded), Jaksch (only if he plays some NAB games), C.Beams, Broomhead, Ellis-Yolmen (only if he’s traded), Sandilands, M.Murphy, D.Beams, Fyfe

Scored below normal/Breakout- Bontempelli, Rockliff, Ablett, Cripps, Aish, Billings, K.Kolodjashnij, Yeo, Wingard, Heeney, Armitage, Ballantyne (only if he’s traded).

ESSENDON (If they price them as playing no games)- Watson, Heppell, Hibberd, Carlisle, Hurley, Stanton, Hooker, Ryder


You could make a pretty bloody good team with just those players. This will be my first port of call next year- looking for the bargain players. Ala Wells, Libba, Kerridge.

[crowls]

Good list hoggyz.   Can use as a starting point for next year.   Many I will not consider as risk is greater than reward.


Would put zerret in same category as bont and cripps.   Returning players are not going to stop him.  Heppell, Watson, Zerrett will all score points.  Zac would as well if coaches dont tag him.   

[Gigantor]

It's 7 games or less for a discount, so that might rule out a few players like Murphy. Though his scoring is way down so he still might be worth a look

[Hoggyz_a_legend]

It's 7 games or less for a discount, so that might rule out a few players like Murphy. Though his scoring is way down so he still might be worth a look

Murphy's avg is less than 80, so unless he goes huge last 2 rnds, he'll be around $400-430k, which is a big bargain.

[Gigantor]

Swallow 277k
O'Meara 189k

These are price after a 40% discount, would love to see it happen :) At those prices I think the injury concerns are worth the risk

[GoLions]

Swallow 277k
O'Meara 189k

These are price after a 40% discount, would love to see it happen :) At those prices I think the injury concerns are worth the risk

I thought 30% was the highest discount possible? I could be wrong though.

[Gigantor]

Swallow 277k
O'Meara 189k

These are price after a 40% discount, would love to see it happen :) At those prices I think the injury concerns are worth the risk

I thought 30% was the highest discount possible? I could be wrong though.

0 = 40%
1,2,3 = 30%
4,5 = 20%
6,7 = 10%

But there are exceptions

If the player averages less than 60 they don't get a discount or only get a small discount, for example

Adam Kennedy 2015 7 games @60.29 2016 price 292800 (10% discount)
Rory Atkins 2015 7 games @56.3 2016 price 303700 (no discount)

Reece Conca 2015 2 games @58 2016 price 284100 (10% discount)
Lachie Plowman 2015 2 games @62 2016 price 236100 (30% discount)

So despite averaging less players can end up more expensive then other players, this seems to be a hard and fast rule even if it is only a fraction of a point either side of 60.

Also if a player has a really low year compare to previous years they don't always get the full discount.
eg A player averages 100 in 2015 but then only plays 3 games in 2016 @70 due to injury they wouldn't get the full 30% discount

Sometimes they just flat out ignore the year if it is way under, Brett Goodes played 2 games @ 20 odd when his previous year was a 90 average. They just ignored the really low year and gave him a 50% discount based on the previous year.

I can't quite figure out how they price rookie players who don't play at all but then are still on a list the following year.

And of course sometimes there are prices that make absolutely no flowering sense at all :)

[HappyDEZ]

A fit discounted Fyfe would be a lock in all formats. Not sure on Zerrett as a MID only tho he is proving himself a durable ball magnet. Even if Beams had a sound preseason it's still a no from me. This knee problem appears to be of a chronic nature. Even Bennell, despite what his price may be & despite his undeniable ability is a no from me at this stage (tho under $200 would be a LOCK) but that aint gonna happen? I am planning on not messing with players that you know can be unreliable both physically and/or mentally. Same goes for Yarran. If Ryder secures the No. 1 ruck spot he would be a starting lock in the FWD line for me. Pittard aside & Gray as a FWD or MID in SC only Port have no premos anymore. Maybe Wines is cherry ripe to go 110? Rockliff LOCK Treloar LOCK Doc LOCK Laird LOCK Grundy LOCK Danger & Gawn 50/50. Blokes like Hoskin-Elliot & Tomlinson worth a look if they get traded & start around $200. Can Lynch (GCS) be good enough to break the KPP rule? Swallow & O'Meara possible locks with a decent pre-season especially if given any DPP status.

[MC]

Some names that haven't been mentioned much:

Def: Langdon, Roberton, KK
Fwd: Devon Smith, Christensen, Jamie Elliott

As mentioned, there are plenty in the mids, and none really worth taking in the rucks.

these stink of lonergan.

Except that the above-mentioned players have all had keeper-level years in the past.
No idea which Lonergan you mean, presumably Jesse, who has never scored well at all.
Care to explain?

Langdon - Avg 85 in 2015, his second year. Will receive injury discount of 30%(?)
Roberton - Avg 90 in 2015, may have simply been a spike year.
KK - Avg 88 in 2015, his second year. Dropped away this year, though has had 0 support. 
Smith - 90 in 2014, 87 in 2015 and is probably 5-10ppg underpriced this season (see his scores since returning from injury)
Christensen - Season averages of 92, 90 and 86 before this year. Injury-affected, easily 15-20ppg underpriced.
Elliott - Perhaps the worst of the lot, average of 83 in 2014, though will gain a huge injury discount, so should be 300-ish and might pick himself depending on his preseason and Collingwood's draw.

[enzedder]

Blake Acres...had another good game for the Saints again today...haven't seen the game as yet but is his fourth big game in as many weeks. Last 4 scores...110, 93, 110, 109....was averaging 74 before today. Will be awkwardly priced and doubt I'll go there but he has a touch of breakout about him.
Has also been some speculation that Saints are after Fyfe and with Acres being from WA some are throwing his name into the discussion as part of a deal.