WXV Round 17: Missing Moscows' Final Showing

[Purple 77]

Normal lockouts :)

Round 17, AFL Round 19

Home Team	Away Team	Venue	Head-to-Head
Beijing Thunder	New Delhi Tigers	Neutral, Traeger Park, EurAsia, Asia, Billions Cup	2  v  2
Cairo Sands	Buenos Aires Armadillos	Borg El Arab Stadium, AAP Alliance	0  v  4
Cape Town Cobras	Seoul Magpies	Newlands Cricket Ground	3  v  1
Christchurch Saints	PNL Reindeers	AMI Stadium	1  v  1
Dublin Destroyers	Mexico City Suns	Neutral, Etihad Stadium	4  v  3
London Royals	Rio de Janeiro Jaguars	London Olympic Stadium	1  v  0
Moscow Spetsnaz	Berlin Brewers	Luzhniki Stadium, EurAsia, Europe	4  v  1
Pacific Islanders	Toronto Wolves	Oakley Arena, AAP Alliance	1  v  3
Tokyo Samurai	New York Revolution	Tokyo Olympic Stadium	1  v  3

Well lads, it's been a ripping Home & Away season; quite possibly the best ever. It's crazy that Round 1 was 18 weeks ago, where every team looked to 2016 with a sense of hope & optimism for things to come. For some teams, that hope was realised. For some teams, optimism was soon lost just three weeks in. And for others, these 17 rounds were just a necessarily exercise in order to set up for another finals tilt. I genuinely hope you all enjoyed the season as much as I did, and for those 8 teams that continue into next week; know that you deserve the attention of the whole community as the best teams of 2016. So enjoy the last H&A previews!

THIS ROUND IS AS BIG AS IT GETS

It's fitting that the two neutral games of the round are quite possibly the best. But with more at stake, Game 1 of Round 17 is my MATCH OF THE ROUND! The Thunders' season has been one of excitement; as a young improving team often generates. Sitting 7th with the same 9-7 record as 5 other teams, the Thunder have the opportunity to secure their first finals appearance since 2012 and complete the three(?)-year long rebuild under coach Toga. Their final opponent was just meant to be, really. Fellow 2015 bottom four team New Delhi sit only percentage above Beijing at 6th; with their rise being just as impressive. It was only last year this New Delhi outfit limped their way to a wooden spoon, and despite a hugely successful trading period totally transforming their 2016 prospects, looked like they may again join the other bottom 6 teams at one stage when they were 4-6 after Round 10. But their past month has been nothing short of exceptional. Four straight wins with their last three (Rio, Buenos Aires and London) requiring something special to get them over the line paints a fairy tale turnaround that's kinda of hard to resist in getting swept up with! It's a real shame that one of these teams will likely not make the finals, as both have come from such a long way back to be where they are now. Whomever loses would be bitter about it for sure, but still, they would have had a cracking season. With New Delhi outscoring Beijing by only 8 WXV points overall this year, they really couldn't be that much more even... but like I said, it's kinda impossible to resist this stunning fairy tale in the making at New Delhi, and I'll have to tip them to win this match! Oh, and one last thing, the winner out of this match also wins the Asia premiership! So much on the line, and good luck to both!

The Sands, you know, have probably copped more beltings from me than they have on the field... or at least that's what Nige will tell you. The favourite to win the Wooden Spoon has had a pretty "flower the world" kind of season, with injuries to key players marring their ENTIRE season. With 12 consecutive losses that followed their surprising 2-2 start to the season (with top 8 scalps in PNL & New York), I think Cairo would be in a hurry to forget this season; especially if they can't either win against Buenos Aires or better their percentage by 1.48% to overtake Toronto. At least, they'll definitely get two top 3 draft picks to assist their rebuild; just look at what New Delhi did with them just last year, the Sands could be contending for finals this time next year! And when you consider they have guns in Beams, Mummy, Adams, Hanley & Higgins... they probably have more to work with than what the Tigers had. Meanwhile at Buenos Aires, OH flower HOW DID THIS HAPPEN?! I swear the Dillos were cruising into finals, but a loss against Rio last week now sees them 10th on the ladder with a smaller percentage than 4 of the 5 teams they share a 9-7 record with. Fortunately for the Dillos, they face the second lowest scoring team of the comp for the year so they'll go in as comfortable favourites to win and secure a place in the finals. But, Cairo would have beaten them only 2 rounds ago... don't get nervous now. The Dillos for mine, and rightfully so! A team that wins 9 out of 10 consecutive matches should automatically get in the finals  :-X.

Where has the Cobras of last week been all year?! This team just showed another sign of things to come IMO, with their first 150 score of the year and fourth 140+ score. For the most part, the Cobras have put in a competitive brand of football that perhaps poorly reflects their 6-10 and 13th placing. But, with a trade period that saw them net two high draft picks, a fall in scoring output was always likely to occur and that can be seen with four sub 125 scores (as is the inconsistency of youth). The Cobras, I feel, would be quietly pleased at what their team has shown this year and would be confident that they have a core that they could turn into a finals force sooner rather than later. They pose a real threat to their sweating opponents this week in Seoul, whom could drop from 5th to 10th with a loss! The Magpies are yet another young team that has taken a couple of years to develop to be threatening finals like they are now. Perhaps all of a sudden, they've managed to share PNL's win/loss record and sit 5th overall, but the team with the next worst percentage is all the way down at 14th. It's LIKELY that a loss here, against a team they'll enter as favourites in, will see them miss out on their first ever finals appearance on the back of a 10-7 season, which would be the most heartbreaking thing ever. Come on Danger, just one more big effort. Although the Cobras would have beaten them in the last two weeks, my heart and Seoul are with the team on the back of 5 consecutive wins to make this maiden finals appearance possible! Inspiring stuff!

The Saints, for the second year in a row, again sit amongst teams that are challenging for finals, and that's a success often underrated. But, they'd be pretty disappointed with how their season has gone. Having, by luck, received one of the easiest draws of the year, they haven't been able to fully take advantage of it by scoring the 12th most amount of points of the year to sit precariously at 9th position, against a team that's highly favoured to win. The Saints have lifted though in the past month (their toughest part of the draw) in a desperate attempt to overcome their more fancied opponents, evidenced by their huge win over Mexico City two weeks ago. They'll need another effort like that though this week against a Reindeer outfit that is on the back of three consecutive 140+ scores. The Reindeers season has been quite remarkable actually; once sitting 2-5 and me declaring "their season is over" only to embark on a winning streak that was ended just last week to sit 4th and pretty much guarantee themselves a place in finals. HOWEVER! When I checked to see whom has had the least amount of points scored against them (fully expecting to see Christchurch as number 1), the Reindeers have in fact received the easiest draw of the season! But with seven 140+ scores in the last 9 weeks, I think it's safe to say they've deserved their current placing. But what would concern the Reindeers more at the moment, is that they have made the final two in the World Idol with Mexico City; the team that beat them last week! For the game, I'll say PNL will win. In Idol, I reckon the Suns get it done.

Here it is WXV community, the game we've ALL been waiting for; the Grand Final Replay. It's not surprising that Mexico City & Dublin are yet again our two best teams in the competition, and as such are fighting for the Minor Premiership with the victor to claim the title, and more importantly, the mental edge going into finals. The Destroyers have easily had a down year compared to their almost flawless 2015 campaign that saw them win EVERYTHING but the thing that mattered most. But, they sit in the same position as they did 12 months ago as the number one team on the ladder, despite scoring approximately 2,270 less SC points than they did this time last year! But is this just an implementation of what they learned from last year? Does less equate to more? With failures defending the World Idol, Europe & EurAsia crowns already eventuated, do these sacrifices mean that the premiership ambitions are more focused? The Suns have kinda gone the other way actually; having scored approximately 410 SC points more than what they did this time last year on a premiership winning side. In my eyes, the Suns have been the best team of 2016 so far, evidenced by sitting number 1 on the points ladder with just one more loss than first placed Dublin. With these two teams, but particularly the Suns, I just felt that they were going through the motions the entire year because they know that what lies ahead in the near future is the only thing that matters... but I reckon they'd love to win the minor premiership and the mental edge over the team that they'll likely face again in the finals. Who will win? I'm tipping the Suns.

The Royals, in my view, put on another a display last week that reflected their season well; although they lost, they threatened a more fancied team (and would have taken away their finals hopes with it) with a score, that, although not a world-beater, it can certainly beat  World teams. London have been a consistent bunch; they're a team that reminds me of the 2015 Beijing Thunder a few ways, as they consistently put up scores that would compete most of the time but claim a few wins along the way, and I think having 6 wins from this consistent output is a great result for this Royals team. The Jaguars knew they underachieved last year; having been a top 8 scorer regulated to the bottom 6. So it makes sense that they came out firing in 2016 and even more so had the firepower to cement themselves with top 4 reputation. The loss of GAJ presents the only doubt about Rio's premiership campaign, which has been fairly untalked about all year. But, as the third highest scoring team overall, there are not many more qualified teams to challenge Dublin & Mexico City for the ultimate glory, and I'd say they're a real dark horse jaguar at taking it out. Having successfully averted the Buenos Aires scare last week, I expect Rio to account for the Royals yet again, but a 150+ score would do wonders for this GAJ-less teams' confidence.

I mention Moscow in the title of this thread amidst perhaps more round reflecting headlines, for a couple of reasons. 1) The moment the Essendon suspensions dropped, this four-time semi finalist team went missing from all finals talk and much relevance, so I felt it appropriate to give them a nod for their 2016 efforts netting 6 wins regardless, and 2) they're the last team I haven't mentioned in my thread titles. But focus more on 1), like I will now. There are not many teams that would have netted 6 wins without regularly having four of their best XV all year, the absence of a number 1 ruckman for the second half of the year and still cop the regulatory absence from players of note along the way, like everyone else does. The fact remains that Moscow will regain their competitive and finals-contending edge regardless of what happens during the trade period this year, and will remember 2016 as a total waste of time because that edge was taken away from them. Berlin, well, and I might be biased with this analysis, have probably had the single most disappointing year of anyone, when you compare 2016 preseason expectations with reality. I should have known this BS year was coming when eventual bottom 4 team Tokyo cleaned me up in Round 1, followed by the downing of Fyfe and just a whole heap of other BS results going against me. Despite all this, Berlin managed to finish 12th (regardless of the result against Moscow) whilst being the 5th highest scoring team without 2015's number 1 midfielder. Berlin traded for a top 4 finish, meaning they went old, and to finish this way is disastrous. OH! I just happened to check who has had the most points scored against them, and it's me! So in behalf of the jaded and bitter Berlin coach, I say, flower this game, Berlin will beat Moscow, and flower YOU ALL!

The Islanders, despite their finals uncertainty, pretty much continued their 2015 form that saw them finish 7th overall from its wooden spoon year before it. The loss of Michael Hurley and to a lesser extent Ben Howlett was always going to set the Islanders back, even if they got the best compensation ala James Kelly. The Islander XV that took to 2016 was largely the same to the XV that was so successful in climbing up the ladder in 2015, but with the hindrance of no Hurley and as a result, a hindrance to making the finals. Out of the six teams sitting 9-7, the Islanders are the one with the worst percentage, largely thanks to having the third most points scored against them this year despite ranking 8th on the points ladder. A win is a non-negotiable, and sitting jut 0.28% behind Christchurch, knowing one of Beijing or New Delhi will lose and hoping Seoul will lose against Cape Town, the Islanders need to win big. Luckily for them, they come up against the lowest scoring team of the season and a perfect opportunity to not hold back and get a win that will percentage boost them all the way into their second finals series. Toronto's year seemed destined to finish near the bottom; having taken the long-term approach during the re-draft and subsequent trade period. However, with the likes of Pittard, Hopper, Macrae, Brayshaw, De Goey, Watts, Kreuzer... this team has something great to work with, and a top 3 draft pick will go to some ways to projecting Toronto back up the ladder to where it belongs. But if the Wooden Spoon was its expectations going into 2016, then the Wolves have something to be proud of. Wins against Cairo and New York whilst maintaining a tighter defence than its wooden spoon opposition in Cairo has seen Toronto likely to avoid the unwanted mark in the history books that a wooden spoon claim attracts. But it's not over yet. Cairo will get the number 1 pick regardless as a priority pick, so they'll put in one last big effort to try and avoid it. Should that happen, Toronto will have to do the same against Pacific, either to protect its percentage lead or its win/loss record. Come on Wolves, one last push, and the same for the Islanders! Pacific to win here.

The Samurai have probably had the most inconsistent season in the comp in regards to its highs and lows. I mean, this team has scored 140+ four times, but less than 120 four times as well! Unfortunately, most of the time its more competitive efforts have been met with a lift in opposition scoring, evidenced by having the second most amount of points scored against them, so perhaps this 4-12 record of theirs is a poor reflection of what this team can achieve given just a bit of consistency. It's highlight for the year? Easily would be scoring 152 points in Round 1 against Berlin and making them pissed off about it for the 18 weeks to follow. But with the likes of Johanissen, Parker, Lycett and Dahlhaus, the Samurai have been underachieving for some time now. They can seriously push for finals next year, just you watch. The Revolution have probably had the most "eyebrow raising" moments this year than any other team. To me, "eyebrow raising" encompasses both sides of the spectrum, and I'll mention the better side first. With half of their scores reading 140+, an AMAZING win against Dublin where they scored 178 (the second highest team score of the year) and to sit 4th on the points ladder are all highly impressive feats. Yeah. You'd think sitting 4th on the points ladder would mean they'd be an automatic finals certainty? Enter: the other side of the spectrum. New York sit dripping in sweat at 8th position, sharing a 9-7 record with 5 other teams largely thanks to losing to the flowering bottom two teams on the ladder! They also only JUST beat Cape Town 3 weeks ago; losing would have meant finals were no longer a possibility, and a loss on HGA to Seoul last week means there one Tokyo-blue moon away from missing out on finals. How does this happen?! Anyway, they'd be praying star ruck Kurt Tippett can come back ASAP if they make the finals, but first they have to beat Tokyo whom would have beaten them just 4 weeks ago. I expect New York to win, and in terms of worthy finals contenders I certainly hope they do as they could do damage in the final eight.

[Purple 77]

3000 words boiz in this final edition, you better appreciate  8)

[GoLions]

3000 words boiz in this final edition, you better appreciate  8)

We'll appreciate it when you tip us :P

[JBs-Hawks]

Gonna miss reading these each week!

[meow meow]

SANDILANDS - TEST
GRIFFEN - TEST
MCVEIGH - TEST
STEELE - TEST
MCLEAN - TEST

Sandilands' "4 week injury" has derailed our season and now he has the chance to save it. Griffen has been useless in comparison to Zorko, and in comparison to most other players since all he does is sit on the sidelines but could still be a significant player. McVeigh was just starting to get going after a slow start while Shuey has powered through the season and is in Brownlow contention. Our F4 has been quite horrendous but with McLean due back soon, Steele capable on his day and WHE putting up 29 touches and a couple of goals in his 3rd return from injury gives us some hope that we can improve if we get across the line this week and a couple of other results go our way.

Our reserves team should be quite strong next week, so when we get pumped this week we'll have that to focus on at least.

[Levi434]

Great write up once again Purple!

Nailed it in regards to us needing to find a big score. Need to build the confidence without GAJ.

[Nige]

3000 words boiz in this final edition, you better appreciate  8)

We'll appreciate it when you tip us :P

You're god damn right.

[RaisyDaisy]

Awesome read up Purps - Like JB said I'll def be missing these weekly reads too!

Tokyo get Dahl back this week which isn't ideal for us.

At the start of the year I thought this match was just going to be a formality, but now we have everything riding on it. I'll be crossing everything that we win this week

Random observation, I feel like we are nearly always listed in the bottom match for the round each week too. Coincidence Purps?  :-\

[Purple 77]

Awesome read up Purps - Like JB said I'll def be missing these weekly reads too!

Tokyo get Dahl back this week which isn't ideal for us.

At the start of the year I thought this match was just going to be a formality, but now we have everything riding on it. I'll be crossing everything that we win this week

Random observation, I feel like we are nearly always listed in the bottom match for the round each week too. Coincidence Purps?  :-\

I've noticed that too, along with Beijing normally at the top :P

I think that's just the effect of swapping around the opposition around fixed teams on a list in making sure each team plays each other once. But ask ossie, as he did the fixturing for me

[meow meow]

CHRISTCHURCH SAINTS

B: Matthew Boyd, Jarrad McVeigh, Ben Reid, Sean Dempster
M: Sam Mitchell, Ryan Griffen, Bryce Gibbs (C), Connor Blakely
R: Jordan Roughead
F: Clay Smith, Luke Breust, Jake Stringer, Leigh Montagna (vc)
I: Hamish Hartlett, Koby Stevens

E: Jake Lever, Kyle Langford, Mason Cox

Resting: Jobe Watson, Aaron Sandilands

[Holz]

Random observation, I feel like we are nearly always listed in the bottom match for the round each week too. Coincidence Purps?  :-\

here is a clue

B
C
C
C
D
L
M
P
T

the answer: New York no good :P

[Holz]

Backs:  A.Rance, G.Birchall, H.Grundy, S.Collins
Mids: J.Selwood (CC), R.Sloane, A.Treloar, N. Dal Santo
Ruck: T.Goldstein
Fwds: D.Martin (CC) 1.1, L.Franklin,J.Gunston, J.Riewoldt
Interchange: N.Jetta, M.Daw

J.Weitering, J.Silvagni, S.Frost



wish i had Marc Murphy back this week but ohh well. hoping Jetta and Daw can bounce back.

[iZander]

Random observation, I feel like we are nearly always listed in the bottom match for the round each week too. Coincidence Purps?  :-\

B
C
C
C
D
L
M
P
T

the answer: New York no good :P

lol

[Ricochet]

Huuuuuuge game Toges!

Finals on the line
Rivalry game
Bragging rights
Loser will quit as coach of his worlds team

Game on

[Toga]

D: S.Mayes, H.Taylor, L.Brown, J.Aish
M: C. Ward (CC), L.Neale, O.Wines, B.Ellis
R: B.Grundy
F: D.Zorko (CC), J.Jenkins, C.Petracca, K.Lambert
IC: B.Hill, M.Jones

Emg: J.Polec (m), J.Hunt (f), D.Howe (d)