WXV Round 16: Cobras Redemption or Wooden Wolves?

[Purple 77]

Normal lockout :)

Round 16, AFL Round 18

Home Team	Away Team	Venue	Head-to-Head
Beijing Thunder	Cairo Sands	Beijing Olympic Park	1  v  3
Berlin Brewers	Christchurch Saints	Berlin Olympic Stadium	0  v  1
Buenos Aires Armadillos	Rio de Janeiro Jaguars	Estadio de River, AAP Alliance, Americas, Rhythm (South America) Cup	0  v  1
Cape Town Cobras	Toronto Wolves	Newlands Cricket Ground, AAP Alliance	1  v  3
Dublin Destroyers	Moscow Spetsnaz	Crooke Park, EurAsia, Europe	3  v  1
London Royals	New Delhi Tigers	London Olympic Stadium, EurAsia	3  v  1
Pacific Islanders	Tokyo Samurai	BSP Stadium	4  v  0
PNL Reindeers	Mexico City Suns	State de France	0  v  4
Seoul Magpies	New York Revolution	Seoul World Cup Stadium	3  v  1

The Thunder had a welcome return to form last week amid recurring fears of another season fade-out. With the impressive win over London last week, the Thunder remain in the furious fight for finals at 10th and 8-7 faced with two must-win games against Cairo and New Delhi. The Thunder haven't been this close to finals since the Worlds debut 2012 season and to make the eight after Round 17 would cap off a patient and marvellous rebuild that promises to continue regardless of the results in the next 2 games. In contrast, Cairo would be forgetting this season in a hurry but they too would be quietly confident of a much better 2017, especially if they land picks 1 & 2 in this years draft. Still, Pick 1 is a given seeing as they probably won't win more than 3 games this season, so the incentive to avoid the wooden spoon is all the more higher I feel. The Sands have been competitive in the last two weeks and would have beaten Beijing two weeks ago, so they have the perfect opportunity to deflect some of their 2016 pain to someone else here. Beijing for mine, but it's a danger game for them.

Speaking of 2016's to forget, Berlin really comes to mind with their coach inspired motto of "flower this game, and flower you all", established pretty much since Tokyo painted the moon blue in Round 1. Coming off an expect loss against Dublin, the real pain of last week was that had their paranoid coach just simply stuck with WXV number 1 ruckman Max Gawn as captain last week, Berlin would have avoided a World Idol exit. So yeah, that motto just keeps getting louder. Berlin sit 5th in the points ladder but 12th in the one that counts, so nothing but unadultered jealously, envy and hate comes with their opponent this week in Christchurch, whom sit 12th on the points ladder, but 6th where it counts. The "Christchurch curse" continued last week with what could be their season defining win against Mexico City last week, where many Suns were injured both before and during the match. However, credit were credit is due, the Saints season-high score of 150 made them deserve that win and as such, have something for their future opponents to think about. A Christchurch win here probably sees them win finals, but a loss would mean that PNL next week will decide their fate, so the Saints would love to win this game, and I think they will.

Buenos Aires, looking back, have had a pretty fortunate season when you consider that they sit 11th on the points ladder but 7th in the one that counts. Although, to come from a 0-4 start to now be 9-6 and favourites to feature in finals is pretty impressive, lets be honest. But the Dillos' scoring has started to slip just a little bit from their mid-season form; having scored between 130-135 in the last month to net their two losses in their past 11 games. As such, their finals credentials have perhaps come into question; maybe their just making up the numbers? Rio meanwhile have proven themselves worthy of a top 4 team and I don't think that has come into question since... before Round 1. The loss of GAJ I would have thought would severely bring down the Jaguar ceiling and rob them of their premiership chances... well, the former at least seems to be fine, with last week's 145 showing that they can still do damage come finals. Despite having to travel, I'd still stay Rio are the favourites to claim the Dillo scalp, but the Dillos won't be a push-over; expect this one to be close.

In what is perhaps the last good chance for both teams to notch up another win, the Cobras have the opportunity to inflict some more justice for some missed opportunities that have plagued their year. Last week saw the Cobras notch up a HGA-inspired 1 WXV point victory over Tokyo; something that would have felt pretty damn good seeing as just the week before they went down by 1 SC point to New York. The Cobras have actually come to life a little bit in the second half of the season; averaging 134 points per game from Round 9 compared to their 128.25 average from Rounds 1-8. As such, they now sit 13th on the points ladder but 15th on the one that counts but a win here would see them likely jump to 13th. Toronto have actually had quite a competitive last 5 matches, where they have won 2 games and kept the other three games to less than 150 SC points. But with Cairo lifting their game and coming awfully close to winning a match recently, their 17th spot on the ladder is at stake and so is their claim to the wooden spoon, which no one wants. In Cape Town, Toronto a fellow bottom 4 team so that fact alone gives them a chance to notch up their third win in what would be a morale boosting last sprint at the season. I'll say the Cobras will win as they have been in better form, but they wouldn't want to take the Wolves lightly.

The Destroyers have been a bit reminiscent of Hawthorn this year... clearly not playing their dominant football of 2015, but hey, they're now standing alone at the top of the ladder arguably favourites to win the premiership. With Mexico City waiting in Round 17 and with a slightly better percentage, Dublin are still at risk at losing the minor premiership to the Suns, which is why it's so important now to get a percentage boosting win over the ravaged Spetsnaz. Or is resting a star player now more important? The Spetsnaz are waiting for the sweet release of Round 17 to mark an end to a season that was arguably finished before it started (when Heppell, Hooker and to a lesser extent Monfries were suspended). With a recent form line reading 108, 131 and 111, one doesn't give them much hope at beating Dublin, but they just gotta go in believing it's possible, and you never know what might happen. Dublin should win though, but it'll be interesting to see how they prepare for Round 17 and beyond.

I feel like I say this every week, but London would still be quietly chuffed at what they've this season. I reckon when they went out and adopted this youth policy over last years' trade period, they thought they'd finish bottom four with maybe about 4 wins, maybe 3 or maybe 5. But, sitting 13th at 6-9 and with a consistently competitive-ish form line, I reckon they've done their coach proud, and they'd even almost feel like a chance in close to every game they go into, including this one. The Tigers currently sit in the most dreaded position in Worlds; 9th. That means that they're either going to make the finals, or come heart-breakingly close. But, coming back-to-back inspiring wins against Rio and Buenos Aires, they've positioned themselves beautifully, especially from a 5-7 record. It's looking like however, a 9-8 record won't cut it to make finals, so this win is CRUCIAL for them. They'd be the favourites to win this game and I'll tip them, but a repeat of their Round 11 & 12 efforts (121 & 125) might spell absolute disaster.

The Islanders successfully clung on for dear life last week against New York; an impressive win that sees them still a genuine chance at making finals. However, sitting at 11th with a 8-7 record, an inferior percentage means that not only do the Islanders have to win these games against Tokyo & Toronto; they might have to win them by a lot. The Islanders are perhaps a bit unlucky to be in this position, because they sit 6th in the points ladder whilst conceding the most points in the competition. The Samurai let a golden opportunity at back-to-back wins slip last week in a heartbreaking 1 WXV point loss on HGA against the Cobras. If you ask me, this just continued a mildly unlucky continuation of not getting reward for effort as the Samurai have been putting up decent scores for much of the past 8 weeks to only net 2 wins. Although they won't make finals, they have the power to stop another team making them in the Islanders this week, as a loss for them will spell the end of their season. But, I'll tip Pacific for this one.

This is a pretty big game in terms of the firepower involved... not so much in the scheme of things, which is why they don't get my MOTR gong. The Reindeers continued their stunning mid-season revival with a timely percentage boosting win against Moscow last week; scoring their second highest score of the year (150). Although only 8th on the points ladder, I'd place a safe bet that since Round 8 the Reindeers would rank in the top 4 for points scored which just goes to show that their current 4th placing is justified. The Suns are coming off something EXTREMELY rare for this team; back-to-back losses. I'd actually would love to know the last time this happened... assuming it has happened before, right? Anyway, with scores of 148 & 141 not getting the job done against Berlin & Christchurch respectively, the panic button is a long way off from being pressed although their minor premiership campaign certainly took a hit. If the Suns want to claim it, they MUST win this week against the Reindeers and then beat the Destroyers the week after. A good finals warm-up you would say! Who will win? I'm backing the Suns here, because I reckon they've never lost 3 in a row.

A late-charging team v a late-fading team, 5th v 8th but with the same win/loss, the stakes of this game rings the gong for me to declare my MATCH OF THE ROUND! The Magpies have never been so well placed to make their maiden finals appearance, but they are still delicately placed nonetheless with the worst percentage in the top 12. Amazingly, it's possible that the Magpies could reach the magic 10-7 win/loss record and not make finals so it is CRUCIAL that they put that possibility to bed with a win here against New York and their last game against Cape Town. The Revolution meanwhile, have struggled with injuries and form of late to have won just 2 of their last 5 games and risk being knocked out of the top 8 should they lose here! That'd be utterly disastrous for this clearly finals worthy team. However, unlike Seoul, the Revolution would likely make the finals with a 10-7 record given their favourable percentage so they have two chances here at securing finals. Still, you'd like to put the possibility to bed! Who will win? Well, Seoul have been superbly led by Dangerfield of late, with him sometimes being the only reason why they won. I don't think he can do it by himself against New York... I think I'm going to have to back the Revolution.

[RaisyDaisy]

Huge weekend coming up with every game bar the Cape Town v Toronto having an impact on shaping the 8

Massive game for us in Seoul - and I hope that not having HGA won't cost us a win. If we can get the win however, we lock a spot in the 8 and remain a sneaky chance to snipe 4th, so it's a big game!

[ossie85]

Noting this is Buenos Aires EIGHTH attempt to win the Rhythm Cup (a 0-6 record against Sao Paulo, and 0-1 against Rio). And this is a pretty important one.

ALSO on the line for Buenos Aires and Rio is the AAP Alliance Premiership. If Rio win, they win the that Premiership for the first time. While if Buenos Aires win this game well, and its next game well, they are still a sneaky chance of stealing it on percentage - unlikely though.

AND ANOTHER THING on the line for Armadillos v Jaguars is that if Buenos Aires win comfortably, Rio could lose the Americas Premiership to Mexico City on percentage... a win for Rio guarantees it.

What a game. Should be match of the round.


Dublin need to win fairly well (maybe 15-20 WXV points?) against Moscow to take out the Europe Premiership from PNL who are a game and percentage ahead.

[Holz]

Dublin need to win fairly well (maybe 15-20 WXV points?) against Moscow to take out the Europe Premiership from PNL who are a game and percentage ahead.

I was going to rest a player but might not do that now.

Im torn as i half want Mexico to Pump PNL so i can take the Europe Crown.

Half want PNL to Pump mexico to secure the minor premiership.

Given i like PNL, go PNL go kill Mexico and you can have Europe.

[Ricochet]

A fair bit on the line in the Dillos game ^



Big weekend ahead, every game is important. Hopefully we do enough to get over London!

[My Chumps]

Cheers for the headline write up Purps! Been a very encouraging second half to the season.

B Smith - S Savage - M Dea - L Plowman
JPK (C) - D Prestia - L Hunter - C Mills
M Blicavs
P Wright - C Bird - D Kent - T Miller
D Tyson - D Parish

E: T Hawkins, B Acres, J Geary

IN: S Savage, D Prestia
OUT: J Geary, T Hawkins

Hopefully Prestia and Savage get up for what is a very winnable clash. Big call at the selection table to drop Tom Hawkins but he's been very poor over the last month and comes up against stifling defence this weekend.

[meow meow]

Prestia has been ruled out for the rest of the season.

[Nige]

Prestia has been ruled out for the rest of the season.

I'd be impressed if he played so soon after surgery!

[RaisyDaisy]

LOL Chumps

Gotta keeo tabs on your players mate :P

[ossie85]

Dublin need to win fairly well (maybe 15-20 WXV points?) against Moscow to take out the Europe Premiership from PNL who are a game and percentage ahead.

I was going to rest a player but might not do that now.

Im torn as i half want Mexico to Pump PNL so i can take the Europe Crown.

Half want PNL to Pump mexico to secure the minor premiership.

Given i like PNL, go PNL go kill Mexico and you can have Europe.

Just quietly, Mexico isn't in Europe

[Holz]

Dublin need to win fairly well (maybe 15-20 WXV points?) against Moscow to take out the Europe Premiership from PNL who are a game and percentage ahead.

I was going to rest a player but might not do that now.

Im torn as i half want Mexico to Pump PNL so i can take the Europe Crown.

Half want PNL to Pump mexico to secure the minor premiership.

Given i like PNL, go PNL go kill Mexico and you can have Europe.

Just quietly, Mexico isn't in Europe

was only thinking about PNL losing not the fact they need to be playing a europe team.

[ossie85]

Dublin need to win fairly well (maybe 15-20 WXV points?) against Moscow to take out the Europe Premiership from PNL who are a game and percentage ahead.

I was going to rest a player but might not do that now.

Im torn as i half want Mexico to Pump PNL so i can take the Europe Crown.

Half want PNL to Pump mexico to secure the minor premiership.

Given i like PNL, go PNL go kill Mexico and you can have Europe.

Just quietly, Mexico isn't in Europe

was only thinking about PNL losing not the fact they need to be playing a europe team.

Nah, you wanted mexico city to beat PNL to take europe crown for Dublin. Mexico City have nothing to do with Europe

[Holz]

Dublin need to win fairly well (maybe 15-20 WXV points?) against Moscow to take out the Europe Premiership from PNL who are a game and percentage ahead.

I was going to rest a player but might not do that now.

Im torn as i half want Mexico to Pump PNL so i can take the Europe Crown.

Half want PNL to Pump mexico to secure the minor premiership.

Given i like PNL, go PNL go kill Mexico and you can have Europe.

Just quietly, Mexico isn't in Europe

was only thinking about PNL losing not the fact they need to be playing a europe team.

Nah, you wanted mexico city to beat PNL to take europe crown for Dublin. Mexico City have nothing to do with Europe

i know thats what i just typed, saw PNL losing an thought thats great for Europe then realsied both teams must be european.

[Toga]

D: S.Mayes, H.Taylor, L.Brown, J.Aish
M: C.Ward, L.Neale (CC), O.Wines, B.Ellis
R: B.Grundy
F: D.Zorko (CC), J.Jenkins, C.Petracca, M.Jones
IC: B.Hill, J.Polec

Emg: J.Hunt, X.Richards, T.Clurey

Subject to changes by Purps!

[Purple 77]

Cheers for the headline write up Purps! Been a very encouraging second half to the season.

Been trying to include each team at least once haha, there is only one team that I haven't had in any of my headlines yet, so to that team, your turn is next week I swear! Even if you have nothing to do with the 8  :-X