WXV Round 15: London to determine Beijing's Fate

[Purple 77]

Another Thursday partial lockout, followed by a full Friday lockout :) it'll be normal lockouts for the rest of the year after this round

Round 15, AFL Round 17

Home Team	Away Team	Venue	Head-to-Head
Beijing Thunder	London Royals	Beijing Olympic Park, EurAsia	1  v  3
Berlin Brewers	Dublin Destroyers	Berlin Olympic Stadium, EurAsia, Europe	0  v  4
Buenos Aires Armadillos	New Delhi Tigers	Estadio de River	4  v  0
Cape Town Cobras	Tokyo Samurai	Newlands Cricket Ground	3  v  1
Christchurch Saints	Mexico City Suns	AMI Stadium, AAP Alliance	0  v  2
Moscow Spetsnaz	PNL Reindeers	Luzhniki Stadium, EurAsia, Europe	3  v  1
Pacific Islanders	New York Revolution	Linkbelt Oval, AAP Alliance, John McCarthy Memorial Trophy	3  v  1
Rio de Janeiro Jaguars	Cairo Sands	Maracana Stadium, AAP Alliance	1  v  0
Toronto Wolves	Seoul Magpies	Rogers Centre	3  v  1

The Thunder are facing a real fight to stay in touch with the finals at the moment. Having lost four of its past five matches and scoring progressively since Round 11, Beijing find themselves delicately placed at 10th position and 7-7. The usual "finals formula" reads that you need a 10-7 record to almost guarantee a place in finals but sometimes you can get away with 9-8, which I suppose the Thunder COULD manage finals with that, but would have to heavily rely on other results to fall their way. The Royals continue to surprise this season really; this youth policy that they enacted late last year has proven to be the correct decision, with a 6-8 record doing its supporter base proud considering their new personnel. London are in fact coming off their highest score of the year (139) against Cairo last week; which was needed as they would have lost with any other score (except Round 11) that they've post this year. As far as danger games goes, this is a big one for Beijing as London can beat most teams on its day. Surely the Thunder recover though? It did however finish last year poorly with only 2 wins in the second half of the season, so does this young team still tire? Maybe, but I'll back them this time around.

AWWWW YEAH BOIZ! Did you see that?! The Brewers top-scored last week against the ladder leaders in Mexico City, and I for one still can't really believe where it came from. But I guess when Masten, MacMillan and Talia combine for 342 points, you know the footy gods are on your side. As such, that was not only the Brewers first 150+ score for the season, but also its first 160+ score too! And really, it's about time I got some luck! The Destroyers happened to equal their worst effort of the season with a 132 last week (and loss) against PNL, which is further evidence that they're not the once unstoppables like they were last year. Having said that, watch them win the premiership... anyway, the Destroyers finally lost at Crooke Park for what would have been the first time in a long time, and I imagine they'll come out with a point to prove... sigh. I remember last year when I was about to face Dublin, the week before I decided to rest one of my gun players in preparation for the match (as I was playing the then lowly New Delhi), so I guess you could say I was hoping to have a big week against Dublin. What happened however, was that I had my best week of the season THE WEEK BEFORE I played Dublin, and Dublin had its worst week of the season THE WEEK BEFORE they played me. As such, Dublin then came out and whooped my sorry arse. THIS IS ALL TOO SIMILAR! In keeping with that weirdly similar story line, I tip the same outcome.

The Dillos place in the finals is pretty much one more win away from being secure, but what would concern it more would be trying to make a sneaky claim at the top 4! They currently sit 6th and share the same 9-5 record with the 4th placed PNL and 5th placed New York. It's unlikely that they'll end up with a better percentage than either of those teams, so it just has to win pretty much the last 3 matches to give themselves a shot at the top 4. The Tigers meanwhile are coming off an inspired victory against the third placed Jaguars which has given their previously slim shot at finals a real shot in the arm! The Tigers actually have the best percentage outside the top 4 which is basically another win on their current 7-7 record. At 9th place, there is every chance that the Tigers could make the eight with a 9-8 record, and with their remaining opponents consisting of a team lower than them, a peer, and a team above them on the ladder... it's god damn interesting times at New Delhi! A big match for two teams aspiring for greater things, I'll back the Dillos at home but give New Delhi every chance.

Last week felt like an awful, awful sense of deja vu for the Cobras. Back in Round 6, the Cobras let the Dillos back in the game very late where they came out with an inspired last quarter to pip them by 6 SC points. But last week was worse. Entering the last match, Cape Towns' Shane Savage, Jarryn Geary, Craig Bird and Blake Acres just had to score 214 points for victory, but choked heartbreakingly to score 212 points and give New York a 1 SC point victory. Ugh, you feel that one right in the chest. The Samurai on the other hand are coming off a fairly cruisey victory over Toronto which pretty much put to rest any slight fears they had at securing an unlikely wooden spoon. The Samurai have overall under-achieved this year IMO, as they've shown to be capable of much more... (*neck twitches*). These two teams currently sit together in the bottom 4, and a win to either side would give them hope at escaping the bottom 4 at seasons end. I think I actually like the Cobras here, whom have been very unlucky in the past 6 weeks not to secure another win or two.

Sandilands, Watson and the odd injury aside, the Saints have easily been the luckiest team of the year. They gotta be surely? They've scored the 12th most amount of points so far this year, compared to conceding the second fewest to be sitting 7th and 8-6; two wins away from securing a place in finals. Even take last weeks win against the 14-man Spetsnaz, had Moscow had another player, they probably would have won! However, with Mexico City (#1 on points ladder), Berlin (#5) and PNL (#8) to come, it's unlikely. The Suns meanwhile, have every right to feel pretty pissed off about last week, as the score they posted up would have beaten Berlin EVERY OTHER WEEK OF THE YEAR! At least though, that they amazingly retained their #1 mantle on the ladder as both the second and third placed teams also lost, so its not all bad. Still, that was the opportunity to almost seal the minor premiership and not have to have it decided in Round 17 against Dublin. I fully expect Mexico City to put Christchurch to the sword here.

The Spetsnaz would pretty much just want the season to end, if we're honest. Having only 14 players to "choose" from last week and still come up only 22 SC points short was just the cherry on the suspension-ravaged cake that has been 2016. Still, what a revelation has Sam Docherty been this year? Or how fantasy relevant the amazing Jesse Hogan has been? It'll feel at lot better at the end of the season when Heppell & Hooker come back. Meanwhile, the Reindeers are coming off arguably their best win of the season against giant Dublin last week, which was a huge boon for their top 4 aspirations. In fact, that win pretty much earned the respect of the competition as a top 4 team if you ask me, despite sitting 8th on the points ladder. Ever since Round 8, the Reindeers have just been a completely different team averaging 144 since! As such, you'll have to tip the Reindeers especially if Moscow have less than 15 players to pick from again.

Involving a team that was in my MOTR last week for the same reason, this clash is my MATCH OF THE ROUND! The Islanders are coming off in what I coined was a season defining game for them; unfortunately as the losing team. Sitting at 11th and 7-7 with an inferior percentage to every team above it (except Seoul whom they're marginally ahead of), they'll likely have to win their remaining games if they are to make the finals. Considering they'll go in favourites against Tokyo and Toronto in rounds 16 and 17, this game is literally their last chance. New York are coming off an INCREDIBLY fortunate 1 SC point win last week; which was a vital result to assist their claim at a top 4 spot. They currently sit 5th and 9-5, and although with a much inferior percentage to the 4th placed Reindeers (with the same win/loss), are still every chance at making the top 4. It really is quite incredible though, they the Revs have lost to the bottom two teams and almost lost to another bottom 4 team last week. Lucky for them, these teams won't be in the finals I suppose! As PNL is likely to go 2-1 in the last 3 games, New York have to win all 3 of their remaining games to make the four, so this clash is important for them. Going back the to Islanders, two weeks ago I would have thought this would be a likely win to New York, but all of a sudden they're every chance (thanks to some New York injuries). If those injuries persist, I'll say the Islanders. If not, the Revs.

The Jaguars let a golden opportunity to make claim to a home qualifying final go last week. With both Mexico City & Dublin losing last week, a win would have seen them now share the same win/loss record and although with a massively inferior percentage than those two teams, one of them will lose again in Round 17 and give the Jaguars the opportunity to take the second spot in the ladder. But forget about that scenario now, thanks to an in-from New Delhi and Rio's third lowest score of the season. The Sands were desperately unlucky not to win against the Royals last week, as that effort would have beaten them 12 out of 14 times this year. That win would have also likely made them avoid the spoon, instead that struggle continues against the third placed Jaguars. Although, it is interesting to note that the Sands would have beaten the Jaguars AND Dublin last week, so is it all that unlikely all of a sudden? Well, yeah, but still! I'll say the Jaguars, but they'd want to be careful. Oh, and before I forget, the Jaguars would be DEVASTATED that champion midfielder Gary Ablett has been ruled out of the rest of the season. That would just be a huge blow and dent into their confidence in finals. So who replaces the all mighty GAJ?

It wasn't a headline grabbing performance from the Wolves last week; quite a regulation performance from both the Samurai and Wolves resulting in quite a regulation outcome. But they would have been sweating on how close Cairo came to victory last week, as that would have made avoiding the spoon much harder. Although their opponents have a lot more to play for at the moment, it's interesting to note that Toronto's best (128) would have beaten the Magpies five times this year... so go in BELIEVING! As mentioned, Seoul have set themselves up beautifully to make the finals off an vital win against the Islanders last week. Sitting 8th and 8-6 but with the worst percentage in the top 12, a 10-7 record is a must and two remaining opponents in the bottom four, they'd be likely to achieve that magic win/loss record. Still, lose here and Seoul's season takes a 180 degree turn... don't take the Wolves lightly! I reckon they won't, so Seoul for me.

[Holz]

Dublin is in massive trouble Purp,

wouldn't be surprised if you got up. 4 best 15 out is killing me. Also I cant captain Sloane.

[ossie85]

Berlin for finals

[Purple 77]

Dublin is in massive trouble Purp,

wouldn't be surprised if you got up. 4 best 15 out is killing me. Also I cant captain Sloane.

I probs won't have Liberatore this week  :(

You could promote Sloane for Roughead btw

Berlin for finals

Newp. Last week was a fluke, lets not get our hopes up.

[Holz]

Dublin is in massive trouble Purp,

wouldn't be surprised if you got up. 4 best 15 out is killing me. Also I cant captain Sloane.

I probs won't have Liberatore this week  :(

You could promote Sloane for Roughead btw

Berlin for finals

Newp. Last week was a fluke, lets not get our hopes up.

Ok so your facing Captain Sloane now.

Also your boy Neville Jetta who is coming off 82 and 87.

[RaisyDaisy]

Massive game for us this week vs Pacific

It's no secret that our past month has been nothing short of woeful. We've got plenty of men down, but am hoping to regain a couple this week

That said, The Bont and Titch scare me and coupled with HGA Pacific go in as favourites. We'll need everything to go right if we're a chance here

[meow meow]

Griff returns from a 6 week injury during the useless bye, scores a ton, does his hamstring and is then out for another 3 weeks that matter. He's played just 44% of the season and on top of that turns 30 in a month. Zorko had better put up some 40's soon or else I'll cry.

[RaisyDaisy]

Griff returns from a 6 week injury during the useless bye, scores a ton, does his hamstring and is then out for another 3 weeks that matter. He's played just 44% of the season and on top of that turns 30 in a month. Zorko had better put up some 40's soon or else I'll cry.

Just read that Griff has been ruled out for another 3-4 weeks, so you'll probably be without him in the finals

More great news for us with Mundy fighting to get right by Friday after being concussed on the weekend. When it rains it pours!

[meow meow]

Griff returns from a 6 week injury during the useless bye, scores a ton, does his hamstring and is then out for another 3 weeks that matter. He's played just 44% of the season and on top of that turns 30 in a month. Zorko had better put up some 40's soon or else I'll cry.

Just read that Griff has been ruled out for another 3-4 weeks, so you'll probably be without him in the finals

Finals? HAHA!

[upthemaidens]

This is the Islanders last chance of making finals.  6th highest scoring team, but 1st in points against.   Could say we've been a touch unlucky.
    Hopefully one of our big men get named, so we don't have to play an OOP in Ruck.  Also the return of Michael Barlow would be quite handy. :)

[meow meow]

CHRISTCHURCH SAINTS

B: Boyd, Lever, Andrews, Reid
M: Gibbs (C), Hartlett, Blakely, Lester
R: Rough
F: Stringer, Montagna (vc), Dickson, Smith
I: Stevens, Vandenberg

E: Mitchell, Breust, McVeigh

[meow meow]

The WXV rising star has to be down to Caleb Daniel and Connor Blakely. Connor took 3 games to find his feet at AFL level and in the 7 matches since he's averaging 87. Daniel's 77 as a forward (for now) is pretty handy. Other have shown glimpses but none have been as consistently good as these two.

[RaisyDaisy]

The WXV rising star has to be down to Caleb Daniel and Connor Blakely. Connor took 3 games to find his feet at AFL level and in the 7 matches since he's averaging 87. Daniel's 77 as a forward (for now) is pretty handy. Other have shown glimpses but none have been as consistently good as these two.

Just had a look at TAB and Daniels is the favourite, and Mills is now 2nd favourite crunched into $3.50!

Blakely right up there for WXV

[Ricochet]

Dildos gonna cop it this weekend

[meow meow]

Dildos gonna cop it this weekend

What you do in your private time is nobody's business. Bit too much information for my liking though Ric.