LaHug's Captains 2016 - Round 16

[LaHug]

I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
Please follow this link: https://my-own-way-2016.everydayhero.com/au/william-huggett



Byes are over and, after last week, I'm bloody happy about that! For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. If I have the time (and they're relevant), I'll get to any requests you have too!

The facts & thoughts:

Gray
Last 3: 107, 76, 113 (99 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 110, 76, 78 (88 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 107, 113, 111 (110 avg)

Loving it in Adelaide right now and scored 110 when they beat the Hawks most recently. Could do worse as a VC OPTION (woo, loophole!). Prediction - 110

Wines
Last 3: 116, 79, 117 (104 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 87, 98, 61 (82 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 116, 117, 79 (104 avg)

Probably your best Power loophole option based on form but I wouldn't expect many to have him. Not great against the Hawks anyway. Prediction - 105

Lewis
Last 3: 113, 106, 126 (115 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 94, 130, 77 (100 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 75, 130, 90 (98 avg)

The bloke just keeps churning out tons after a quiet start to the year. He's got 5 in a row now and last year's 130 in Adelaide makes him the best of the VCs. Prediction - 115

S. Mitchell
Last 3: 121, 99, 109 (110 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 85, 68, 108 (87 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 93, 68, 103 (88 avg)

Not firing as well as he did earlier this year but still in good form. Will certainly get tagged this week after Port's double tag did so well last week and that will slow him down. Prediction - 90

Dangerfield
Last 3: 95, 143, 187 (142 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 89, 83, 89 (87 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 108, 113, 129 (117 avg)

Even a disappointing 95 couldn't hurt his 3 round average going into the bye. Danger was the form guy and should be great this week. I'm willing to ignore the Sydney history because he hasn't played them as a Cat yet (career best year this year) and the Swans were happy to play high possession footy last week allowing 133, 129, 129 from the Bulldogs' top three. Prediction - 120

Selwood
Last 3: 113, 102, 132 (116 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 125, 80, 104 (103 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 111, 103, 126 (113 avg)

Take everything I just said about Dangerfield, lower the current form a touch, and add in good history against the Swans. Should be great. Prediction - 125

Hannebery
Last 3: 127, 91, 81 (100 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 96, 99, 105 (100 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 96, 92, 58 (82 avg)

A good 127 last week but his scores against Geelong are just lower than what I'd want them to be to consider him. Prediction - 100

J.P. Kennedy
Last 3: 106, 88, 98 (97 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 96, 121, 123 (113 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 96, 90, 98 (95 avg)

Slightly better scores than Hanners but still just below what we need when playing at Kardinia. Prediction - 105

T. Mitchell
Last 3: 62, 114, 98 (91 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 89, 121, 81 (97 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 89, 81 (85 avg)

On last week's effort alone, you can't consider him. It doesn't help that he's got some iffy scores against the Cats and in Geelong. Prediction - 90

Ward
Last 3: 104, 74, 110 (96 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 108, 139, 73 (107 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 104, 110, 139 (118 avg)

124 over his last two against the Pies, who aren't too hard to score against, makes Ward a decent option. Form not good enough though. Prediction - 110

Shaw
Last 3: 42, 116, 109 (89 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 119, 55 (87 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 42, 109, 176 (109 avg)

If I keep going with the "Shaw stays true to history" narrative, he should be good this week. Loved it against his old club last time around and should do again at home. Prediction - 115

Coniglio
Last 3: 109, 120, 98 (109 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 62 (62 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 109, 98, 136 (114 avg)

Coniglio has a bit of form back right now but it's still hard to back him. He's only played the Pies once which makes it tough but his form will be enough for a ton. Prediction - 110

Treloar
Last 3: 75, 127, 93 (98 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: N/A
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 123, 109, 102 (111 avg)

This will be interesting! Treloar plays his old club for the first time at his old home ground. He was great there last year but can he handle the hostility? The closest thing to the boos he'll get would be the boos he did get against Richmond and he handled that ok. Showed last week that he can't handle a tag but GWS haven't been tagging. Prediction - 110

Pendlebury
Last 3: 124, 83, 83 (97 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 101, 111, 74 (95 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 111, 114 (113 avg)

History said he'd bounce back last week and he did. History says he'll be good again this week so he will. Prediction - 115

Ablett
Last 3: 78, 129, 120 (109 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 83, 146, 105 (111 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 78, 124, 82 (95 avg)

GAJ looked absolutely gassed last week which is a worry for right after the bye... He used to be a superb pick for the Q Clash and this year's 83 can probably be ignored as his shoulder was still screwed. I'm thinking Robinson tags him this week which makes him too risky. Other Q clash scores: 146, 105, 143, 97, 106, 84. Prediction - 110

Hall
Last 3: 115, 86, 59 (87 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 114, 112, 89 (105 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 115, 59, 97 (90 avg)

Hall was back to his best last week and his record against the Lions says he'll be good again. Prediction - 115

Rockliff
Last 3: 101, 135, 142 (126 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 123, 0, 190 (104 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 0, 157, 93 (83 avg)

The scariest thing about Rockliff's last three against the Suns is it's over 100 average despite a 0 in there... Ignoring the concussion game, Rocky's last three Q clash scores are 123, 190, 157 for a 157 average. WTF?! Lock! Prediction - 140

Zorko
Last 3: 147, 100, 104 (117 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 109, 119, 112 (113 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 112, 59, 51 (74 avg)

This guy loves his Q Clashes too which means a solid score to make up for his resting before the bye. Prediction - 115

S. Martin
Last 3: 105, 111, 61 (92 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 56, 138, 116 (103 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 56, 116, 44 (72 avg)

Now that he's back in form, Stef Martin is a real captain option. After two straight tons, he plays the Suns who he usually smashes (other than his form dip early this year). Prediction - 120

Boyd
Last 3: 129, 98, 89 (105 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 109, 115, 152 (125 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 98, 122, 101 (107 avg)

Richmond haven't been easy to score against this year but Boyd's numbers speak for themselves. Prediction - 115

Hunter
Last 3: 133, 91, 85 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 84, 86 (85 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 91, 163, 71 (108 avg)

In what has been a breakout year for him, Hunter's scoring better than his history against a lot of opponents. Unfortunately, consistency's still not there so, without a really big reason, you can't back him. Prediction - 90

Bontempelli
Last 3: 129, 104, 98 (110 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 133 (133 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 104, 125, 122 (117 avg)

Was tempted to do this guy as a second Roughie but he's just a legit captain choice this week. The Bont smashed the Tigers last year as part of an early season purple patch. Now he's in another purple patch with the Tigers down on form. Add the fact that it's at Etihad and you're looking at a real choice. Prediction - 125

Cotchin
Last 3: 63, 93, 121 (92 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 111, 117, 78 (102 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 126, 97, 83 (102 avg)

He'll bounce back this week as the Doggies aren't tagging. Still not worth the risk after the last two weeks. Prediction - 110

D. Martin
Last 3: 99, 127, 137 (121 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 114, 76, 85 (92 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 99, 111, 98 (103 avg)

Managed a 99 despite a tag last week and should be straight back to form this week. Prediction - 115

Gawn
Last 3: 100, 132, 146 (126 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 125, 32, 34 (64 avg)
Last 3 at Darwin: 58, 32, 56 (49 avg)

I don't like those Darwin numbers but I also think they don't matter. Freo has no real ruckman right now and Gawn is in great form. Prediction - 125

Barlow
Last 3: 107, 159, 90 (119 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 119, 110, 134 (121 avg)
Last 3 at Darwin: 134 (134 avg)

I know he's not playing but I wanted to put those numbers out there to make everyone as sad as I was when I saw them :( Prediction - 125 (if only)

Neale
Last 3: 87, 128, 52 (89 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 123, 125, 123 (124 avg)
Last 3 at Darwin: 123 (123 avg)

Here's someone who IS playing and, with Melbourne not tagging players, there's nobody to stop Lachie Neale this week. Prediction - 125

Gibbs
Last 3: 104, 126, 75 (102 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 113, 54, 53 (73 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 104, 136, 125 (122 avg)

Nathan Jones got 131 last week against the Crows at the MCG. What's stopping Gibbs? Had a 113 last time they played and back in good form. Prediction - 110

Curnow
Last 3: 121, 99, 114 (111 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 88, 65, 62 (72 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 121, 109, 102 (111 avg)

Form says he'll be good but history not so much. I'd expect a run-with role again which has been working in recent weeks. Prediction - 105

Sloane
Last 3: 125, 139, 107 (124 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 82, 74, 68 (75 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 125, 96, 82 (101 avg)

Too risky. Form is fantastic but Carlton are a bogey team for him and Curnow will surely tag him. Curnow held Treloar to 75 last week but Shiel managed 113 against him the week before. What will Sloane do? Prediction - 110

Priddis
Last 3: 103, 81, 114 (99 avg)
Last 3 against North: 98, 113, 143 (118 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 103, 114, 90 (102 avg)

Pridda is pretty decent at home right now and he has a good enough history against North to consider him. Which North will show up on Sunday? Priddis owners are hoping for the one that leaked 139 and 126 to Sloane and Crouch prior to the bye. Prediction - 105

Goldstein
Last 3: 101, 81, 91 (91 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 93, 106, 49 (83 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 73, 49, 62 (61 avg)

Nah. Even without Nic Nat, I wouldn't. Prediction - 100

Merrett
Last 3: 123, 105, 115 (114 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 90, 65, 75 (77 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 105, 115, 90 (103 avg)

Zach is 0/3 for tons against the Saints, including a 90 just 7 weeks ago, and I can't see why. That said, it won't happen again this week with four straight tons coming into the game. Prediction - 110

Steven
Last 3: 65, 93, 132 (97 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 138, 142, 124 (135 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 93, 132, 135 (120 avg)

I really wanted to put this guy into the Potato Forecast because he's had a 93 and a 65 since I brought him into my team. Look at those numbers against Essendon! He will do exactly what he did 7 weeks ago and follow up two poor scores (53 and 83 that time) with a big ton. The script writes itself. Prediction - 130

Riewoldt
Last 3: 97, 116, 64 (92 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 112, 121, 111 (115 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 116, 136, 112 (121 avg)

And, just like last time, Roo will join him with a big score of his own. Prediction - 110

LAHUG'S ROUGHIE OF THE WEEK!

Pretty hard for Roo to ton when he kicks 0 goals 5. Convert three of those (conservative) and he gets 112. I'll take a half win... In this segment, I'll talk about someone that, partly because of stats and mostly because of gut feeling, I think will go huge this week. It'll usually be somebody that you wouldn't usually give the C to but, if you have him and are feeling brave, might be worth a look.

Parker
Last 3: 158, 140, 66 (121 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 61, 166, 108 (112 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 61, 54, 23 (46 avg)

How big are your balls? Parker's last two average 149, and he had a HUGE 166 against the Cats earlier last year. However, he averages 51 over his career four games at Kardinia. Last year at the Cattery, he managed 20 possies but his lack of tackling and 4 frees against hurt him. I'm backing a big one but it's high risk, high reward. Gutsy prediction - 140

LAHUG'S POTATO FORECAST!

As a Tigers fan, it was sad to be right about Cotch but he just can't handle a tag. Basically, I'll highlight a premium that is probably in plenty of teams but is both down on form and has some terrible history against this week's opponent. Get ready for a shocker of a score!

Sidebottom
Last 3: 64, 84, 81 (76 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 89, 96, 143 (109 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 96 (96 avg)

I feel like I'm taking the easy route here but nobody stood out as much as this spud. He backed up three straight scores in the 80s with a 64. He's scored under 100 in his last two against the Giants. He's a spud through and through right now and an obvious choice to stay away from. Spudiction - 70

The verdict:
1.   Rockliff (140)

2.   Steven (130)
3.   Neale (125)
4.   Gawn (125)
5.   Bontempelli (125)
6.   Selwood (125)

(I can have a top 6... you don't make the rules.)

Requests:



I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
Please follow this link: https://my-own-way-2016.everydayhero.com/au/william-huggett

[Chelskiman]

I can't see anything but a Rocky master class here.

[Jalapeno]

Could I please request a write up on Isaac Smith. Unsure whether to put the VC on him or Robbie Gray :)

Thanks so much LH :D

[LaHug]

Could I please request a write up on Isaac Smith. Unsure whether to put the VC on him or Robbie Gray :)

Thanks so much LH :D

I don't think a writeup will do the decision justice from a VC perspective. Basically, three scores under 100 in a row (and many like it this year) for Smith so you'd never give him the C. He does average 114 over four games at Adelaide Oval though and has 5 straight tons averaging 122 against the Power. His form this year makes me predict around 100 but, as a VC option, he could be a massive POD. If you're confident with your backup C option, give Smith a punt. Neither Smith nor Gray is likely to be better than Rocky and Steven this week anyway so roll the dice I reckon.

Hope that helps.

[j959]

hey huggy-bear, luv your work ...

"I can have a top6... you don't make the rules."    ;D

[Jalapeno]

Could I please request a write up on Isaac Smith. Unsure whether to put the VC on him or Robbie Gray :)

Thanks so much LH :D

I don't think a writeup will do the decision justice from a VC perspective. Basically, three scores under 100 in a row (and many like it this year) for Smith so you'd never give him the C. He does average 114 over four games at Adelaide Oval though and has 5 straight tons averaging 122 against the Power. His form this year makes me predict around 100 but, as a VC option, he could be a massive POD. If you're confident with your backup C option, give Smith a punt. Neither Smith nor Gray is likely to be better than Rocky and Steven this week anyway so roll the dice I reckon.

Hope that helps.

Yep sure does man!

Thank you :)

[kilbluff1985]

i think Tom Mitchell will have a run with role on Danger

[LaHug]

i think Tom Mitchell will have a run with role on Danger

Could happen. Although neither are in my top 6 anyway so shouldn't matter too much.

[LaHug]

Rocky over Steven not looking too smart right now :(

[LF]

Yay for Jack the gun Steven as C