LaHug's Captains 2016 - Round 15 - Last Bye Round!

[LaHug]

I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
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No Rockliff or Dangerfield this week. What are we to do?? For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. If I have the time (and they're relevant), I'll get to any requests you have too!

The facts & thoughts:

Priddis
Last 3: 81, 114, 114 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 99, 98, 107 (101 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 114, 90, 105 (103 avg)

You've gotta look at anyone playing Essendon, particularly with the chance to take advantage of the captains loophole. If you don't know how to do it, just make someone from this game your VC and, if you like their score, give the C to a bye player! Anyway, Priddis's numbers aren't anything special but they're not bad either. Prediction - 110

Merrett
Last 3: 105, 115, 121 (114 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 137, 42 (90 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 121, 137, 86 (115 avg)

Merrett is BY FAR your best loophole option and you should definitely give him the VC if you have him. Averaging 114 over his last 3, he's been good in Perth and had a 137 last time against the Eagles. Prediction - 120

Zaharakis
Last 3: 91, 108, 26 (75 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 102, 79, 96 (92 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 26, 45, 76 (49 avg)

If you don't have Merrett, it might be worth putting the VC on Zaka but he doesn't have the numbers to back it up. That 26 at Subi was just three weeks ago when Barlow toweled him up. Prediction - 90

D. Martin
Last 3: 127, 137, 67 (110 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 114, 96, 97 (102 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 116, 96, 80 (97 avg)

Form alone makes Dusty a serious option but that 114 earlier this year in a loss and his solid numbers in Adelaide make him really worth a look. Prediction - 120

Ablett
Last 3: 129, 120, 124 (124 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 70, 127, 71 (89 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 124, 82, 91 (99 avg)

When healthy at Metricon, we all know how big GAJ can go. His current form says 120+ comfortably and, even with some shaky recent history, GAJ looks back at full strength. Prediction - 125

Steven
Last 3: 93, 132, 103 (109 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 100, 59, 120 (93 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 100, 59, 92 (84 avg)

I was so confident that Steven would smash it last week that I traded him in in both comps. Probably why he missed the ton... Anyway, his history against the Suns hasn't been the best up North which makes me very wary. I'm backing a ton but not by lots. Prediction - 100

Hannebery
Last 3: 91, 81, 115 (96 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 143, 116, 68 (109 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 91, 125, 102 (106 avg)

Some mediocre pre-bye form has me lower in confidence about Hanners than I should be. The rest of the numbers look good and, if he's rested up, he could go huge. Prediction - 120

J.P. Kennedy
Last 3: 88, 98, 124 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 100, 71, 114 (95 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 88, 129, 115 (111 avg)

Similar pre-bye issues with slightly worse numbers. Prediction - 105

Parker
Last 3: 140, 66, 121 (109 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 81, 128, 103 (104 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 140, 59, 91 (97 avg)

While the rest of the Swans slowed down, Parker went BANG just before the bye with a huge 140. It's surely not sustainable and we have to be wary of his floundering form before that. He's good enough against the Dogs to get a pass though. Prediction - 110

T. Mitchell
Last 3: 114, 98, 132 (115 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 118, 86, 58 (87 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 114, 163, 130 (136 avg)

The most consistent Swan will be good again this week. He's so so good at the SCG and his form plus last year's 118 against the Dogs make him a good choice. Prediction - 125

Gibbs
Last 3: 126, 75, 58 (86 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 136, 41, 95 (91 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 136, 125, 127 (129 avg)

Back at the MCG, Gibbs returned to his superb form from a month ago. Against the Pies and still at the G, it could well be sustainable. I'm backing that it is. Prediction - 120

Pendlebury
Last 3: 83, 83, 133 (100 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 118, 123, 135 (125 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 83, 83, 133 (100 avg)

Two 83s in a row is really troubling, particularly as it was Sidebottom that copped the tag last week, not Pendles. I can't put my finger on why he's played poorly either side of the bye but I'm confident he'll bounce back against the Blues. He adores playing them and will surely be good. Prediction - 120

Treloar
Last 3: 127, 93, 100 (107 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 96, 123, 133 (117 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 127, 93, 100 (107 avg)

As I said last week, Treloar is the most in-form Pie. His record against the Blues is good too (although not quite as good as Pendlebury's) so expect a good score. Prediction - 115

Gawn
Last 3: 132, 146, 85 (121 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: N/A
Last 3 at MCG: 146, 85, 47 (93 avg)

Tough one to pick this week. He's never played against the Crows but Jacobs is on fire and slowing down just about everyone. Goldy did get a ton last week though and Gawn is in better form. The selling point here is his last two before the bye - 132 and 146. Prediction - 115

Sloane
Last 3: 139, 107, 140 (129 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 130, 89, 104 (108 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 96, 82, 62 (80 avg)

Form and history a big tick but can you pick a guy that, from 12 games, has never scored a ton at the MCG? His best is the 96 he had against the Hawks this year. I'm backing him to break a 12 game streak but I'm far from confident. Prediction - 110

LAHUG'S ROUGHIE OF THE WEEK!

Back in the winner's list for Roughies last week but it was only a small ton for Stef. In this segment, I'll talk about someone that, partly because of stats and mostly because of gut feeling, I think will go huge this week. It'll usually be somebody that you wouldn't usually give the C to but, if you have him and are feeling brave, might be worth a look.

Riewoldt
Last 3: 116, 64, 136 (105 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 108, 104, 64 (92 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 108, 104, 82 (98 avg)

That 64 was probably due to his early knee problems. Aside from that, Nick averages 124 over 8 straight tons. Good enough against the Suns that, when you combine crazy good form, you really need to consider him. Gutsy Prediction - 120

LAHUG'S POTATO FORECAST!

First spud to hit the ton in ages, Goldy scraped a 101 and ruined my streak. I'll bounce back! Basically, I'll highlight a premium that is probably in plenty of teams but is both down on form and has some terrible history against this week's opponent. Get ready for a shocker of a score!

Cotchin
Last 3: 93, 121, 118 (111 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 57, 56, 52 (55 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 69, 56, 118 (81 avg)

He was meant to get a 120+ last week and only got 93 despite no tag. This week looks a lot worse for Cotchin with absolutely horrendous form against the Power dating back to that Elimination Final I'd rather not remember. Spudiction - 55

The verdict:
1.   Ablett (125)

2.   T. Mitchell (125)
3.   Pendlebury (120)
4.   Merrett (120)
5.   D. Martin (125)

Requests:



I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
Please follow this link: https://my-own-way-2016.everydayhero.com/au/william-huggett

[Rusty00]

Without checking the history, I'm guessing those low scores of Cotchin's (prior to the game earlier this year when he got injured) were from Kane Cornes tags.

[Chelskiman]

Gonna VC Merrett I think, but if he spuds up I'm not really sure.  Gaz may get tagged, and I've been burned before when going Titch.  Pendles may be the safe option this week.

[LaHug]

Without checking the history, I'm guessing those low scores of Cotchin's (prior to the game earlier this year when he got injured) were from Kane Cornes tags.

When did Cornes retire? The low scores are too recent to be Cornes I'd think.

Gonna VC Merrett I think, but if he spuds up I'm not really sure.  Gaz may get tagged, and I've been burned before when going Titch.  Pendles may be the safe option this week.

The guy with two 83s in a row is your safe option??

[LF]

No Doggies players this week Huggy?

[DBRiMatt]

Without checking the history, I'm guessing those low scores of Cotchin's (prior to the game earlier this year when he got injured) were from Kane Cornes tags.

When did Cornes retire? The low scores are too recent to be Cornes I'd think.

R6, 2016: Port Adelaide 13.16 (94) d Richmond 8.11 (59) at the MCG
R8, 2015: Richmond 11.10 (76) d Port Adelaide 5.13 (43) at Adelaide Oval
1EF, 2014: Port Adelaide 20.12 (132) d Richmond 11.9 (75) at Adelaide Oval


Kane Cornes retired after ROund 8 in 2015, so that R8 Match vs Richmond was also a Kane Cornes Milestone, 300game + retirement.
Port have only played Tigers once since.

[Chelskiman]

The guy with two 83s in a row is your safe option??

Looking at his record against the Blues, yep.

[Thunderbolts]

Going Gazza with Tmitch as my VC this week.

[nrich102]

If you have a minute could you look at JJ Kennedy. Thinking he could be a sneaky VC option.

[LaHug]

No Doggies players this week Huggy?

99% sure I managed to miss this when rushing :/ I'll have a look now and update if necessary.

If you have a minute could you look at JJ Kennedy. Thinking he could be a sneaky VC option.

Numbers won't do him justice as it's all about the fact he could kick a bag. I don't think he needs a write up. IF YOU HAVE HIM, GIVE HIM THE VC

[LaHug]

Without doing full write ups...

1. Hunter - couple of poor ones in a row before the bye, only played Sydney once for a 57 - prediction 90
2. Boyd - last three of 103, 98 vs. Sydney, 102 at SCG - could do worse, prediction 105
3. Bont - last three 109, played Sydney twice with a 103 last time at the SCG - prediction - 105

[kilbluff1985]

should i take Zerrett's 123 or go GAJ

[jvalles69]

should i take Zerrett's 123 or go GAJ

Good question...  :-\  Think I need to take it...

[LF]

I'm locking it in,especially after so many failed last weekend

[Gigantor]

I'm locking it in,especially after so many failed last weekend

+1

Same in DT