LaHug's Captains 2016 - Round 14 - Second Bye Round!

[LaHug]

I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
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If all three bye rounds provide scores like that, I'll take it! For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. If I have the time (and they're relevant), I'll get to any requests you have too!

The facts & thoughts:

Sloane
Last 3: 107, 140, 81 (109 avg)
Last 3 against North: 79, 112, 86 (92 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 140, 81, 155 (125 avg)

His form is decent but nothing too flash and his record against North ain't great either. However, he's scored a 140 and 155 at AO in his last three there so you could do a lot worse for a sneaky VC loophole. Prediction - 115

Pendlebury
Last 3: 83, 133, 124 (113 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 101, 122, 92 (105 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 83, 133, 124 (113 avg)

My only concern with Pendles throughout the year has been his health. A week off certainly helps get over any niggles. The bad news we have this week is that Freo are tagging (and tagging well) with Barlow holding Gray and Rich to 76 and 74 in the past two weeks. Pendles is a cut above those two but he doesn't have enough going in his favour to ignore that. Prediction - 105

Sidebottom
Last 3: 81, 89, 107 (92 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 63, 84, 119 (89 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 81, 89, 107 (92 avg)

Holy moly look at those numbers! Down on form and against a team he doesn't like playing. No thanks! Prediction - 85

Treloar
Last 3: 93, 100, 119 (104 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 127, 91, 106 (108 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 93, 100, 119 (104 avg)

Treloar won't be tagged and he has a good record against his opponents. Freo aren't the pushovers they were earlier this year but I'd be betting on a good score from Treloar. Prediction - 110

Barlow
Last 3: 159, 90, 113 (121 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 117, 134, 100 (117 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 106, 110, 113 (110 avg)

Barlow has embraced his run-with role and has managed to rack up heaps of the ball too. His form is good, his record against the Pies is good, and he's good enough at the MCG. What's not to love?? Well... be careful considering he's scored under the ton 7/11 games this year... Prediction - 120

Neale
Last 3: 128, 52, 126 (102 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 120, 23, 26 (56 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 57, 125, 57 (80 avg)

After being well and truly shut down by Robinson, Neale bounced back by breaking Port's tag for a solid 128. Pies aren't tagging this year so Neale will likely go well again. Prediction - 120

Cotchin
Last 3: 121, 118, 120 (120 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 119, 110, 138 (122 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 121, 120, 57 (99 avg)

Speaking of Robinson, who does he tag from Richmond this week? If it's Cotchin, all those beautiful numbers implying 120+ are for naught. If he doesn't, we have a legitimate captain option. The last time the Lions tagged against Richmond, they tagged Cotch (but he still got 138). Way too tough to call. Only one team has tagged against Richmond all year and it was North shutting down Brandon Ellis. I'm about 70/30 that Cotchin won't be tagged so I'll lean towards a good score. Prediction - 120

D. Martin
Last 3: 137, 67, 123 (109 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 108, 115, 94 (106 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 137, 123, 123 (128 avg)

Probably Richmond's most damaging player in recent weeks which may get him Robinson's attention (but who knows anymore). If he's free, he's a superb pick this week with his record at the G and recent big scores. Prediction - 125

Rockliff
Last 3: 135, 142, 184 (154 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 137, 116, 115 (123 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 111, 165, 137 (138 avg)

Why did I bother doing a write up this week? 154 over his last three, 123 against the Tigers, 138 at the MCG. Prediction - 140

Zorko
Last 3: 147, 100, 104 (117 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 106, 74, 101 (94 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 91, 124, 130 (115 avg)

Huge last week and should be good again but there are better choices. Prediction - 110

Ward
Last 3: 74, 110, 117 (100 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 92, 85, 127 (101 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 110, 139, 91 (113 avg)

Back at home, Ward will likely bounce back but there's not enough going for him to consider him. Prediction - 100

Shaw
Last 3: 116, 109, 95 (107 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 74, 88, 70 (77 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 109, 176, 132 (139 avg)

I've said it time and time again this season, Shaw is scoring to his history. He sucks against the Blues so don't go for him this week. Prediction - 80

Gibbs
Last 3: 75, 58, 137 (90 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 92, 113, 93 (99 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 113 (113 avg)

Gibbs has a good record against the Giants and was good in their one meeting at Spotless. That said, his last two weeks make him unpickable for the moment. Prediction - 100

Steven
Last 3: 132, 103, 135 (123 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 102, 57, 124 (94 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 132, 135, 138 (135 avg)

How good is Jack Steven at Etihad?? My big concern is that Geelong has been slaughtering teams (at Etihad) in recent weeks, not allowing for many tons. Then again, Sam Gibson got 132 two weeks back. Steven's not great against the Cats but he's not awful. Prediction - 120

Dangerfield
Last 3: 143, 187, 108 (146 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 122, 94, 92 (103 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 143, 187, 122 (151 avg)

Only if you don't have Rockliff... or maybe even if you do?? 146 over his last three, 103 against the Saints, 151 at Etihad. St Kilda leaked a lot when Adelaide smashed them a few weeks back (140 to Sloane) but they've been pretty restictive otherwise. Prediction - 140

Selwood
Last 3: 102, 132, 111 (115 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 88, 70, 136 (98 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 102, 132, 86 (107 avg)

Would be in the running for the Brownlow if Danger didn't keep taking his three votes and relegating him to two. Will be serviceable against the Saints based on recent form but doesn't have the history to earn the C. Prediction - 115

S. Mitchell
Last 3: 99, 109, 88 (99 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 108, 122, 103 (111 avg)
Last 3 at Launceston: 74, 130, 142 (115 avg)

Usually I'd be jumping at Mitchell vs. Gold Coast in Launceston but, after starting the year with 5 straight tons, he's only scored 1 in his last 6. The numbers suggest this will make it 2 from his last 7 butit might not be huge. Prediction - 105

Lewis
Last 3: 106, 126, 106 (113 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 120, 119, 122 (120 avg)
Last 3 at Launceston: 107, 111, 106 (108 avg)

All the numbers point to a safe ton and the "Gold Coast suck" factor gives him a little bonus too. Prediction - 125

Ablett
Last 3: 120, 124, 120 (121 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 157, 132, 139 (143 avg)
Last 3 at Launceston: 157, 135, 74 (122 avg)

If it weren't for two superstars dominating Fantasy right now, GAJ would be a lock this week. Great form and absolutely ridiculous against the Hawks, even in Launceston. Ablett's last 6 against the Hawks are 157, 132, 139, 175, 147, 135 for an average of 148. What the hell?! I don't know how to split the big three right now but do note that Ablett didn't play the Hawks last year and he's a bit quieter this year than years past. Prediction - 140

LAHUG'S ROUGHIE OF THE WEEK!

I hope you ignored my Roughie last week because, although risking it got you the biscuit, the biscuit was soggy and covered in crap. In this segment, I'll talk about someone that, partly because of stats and mostly because of gut feeling, I think will go huge this week. It'll usually be somebody that you wouldn't usually give the C to but, if you have him and are feeling brave, might be worth a look.

S. Martin
Last 3: 111, 61, 81 (84 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 107, 97, 41 (82 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 58, 90, 123 (90 avg)

You get rid of West and Martin scores 111. Too easy! This week is mostly gut feel but I've seen enough of Hampson to know that he's great at hitouts but a lumbering fool when it comes to everything else. Look, Stef Martin had 51 hitouts last week and it might only be 35ish this week. He also had 17 disposals which sounds reasonable to repeat. But he had only 3 marks and no goals. Expect WAY more in those areas against Hampson leading to a better score than last week. Gutsy Prediction - 130

LAHUG'S POTATO FORECAST!

Zaka was my highest scoring spud in over a month with a 91. My spuds are well and truly spuddy so steer clear! Basically, I'll highlight a premium that is probably in plenty of teams but is both down on form and has some terrible history against this week's opponent. Get ready for a shocker of a score!

Goldstein
Last 3: 81, 91, 99 (90 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 121, 85, 86 (97 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 85, 85 (85 avg)

I don't like the idea of an unfit ruck having to match up against Sam Jacobs (see Nic Nat's 75 as an example), especially in Adelaide. Goldy hasn't scored a ton since Round 9 now and, while many will still probably use him as a loophole option, I'd bet on it being another week of falling short. Spudiction - 80

The verdict:
1.   Rockliff (140)

2.   Dangerfield (140)
3.   Ablett (140)
4.   Lewis (125)
5.   D. Martin (125)

Requests:



I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
Please follow this link: https://my-own-way-2016.everydayhero.com/au/william-huggett

[Bill Manspeaker]

tasty! might flip a 3 sided coin to decide between Rocky/GAJ/Danger

great work as always Huggy

[LaHug]

tasty! might flip a 3 sided coin to decide between Rocky/GAJ/Danger

great work as always Huggy

Seriously considering using an RNG to pick for me...

[WhatMate]

Ablett and Rockliff ridiculous  :o

Danger is too out of touch for non owners, an off game would be nice, but that doesnt look like happening anytime soon

CHeers LH

[Thunderbolts]

Will be a flip of the coin between Danger n Rocky for me.

[Chelskiman]

May as well make it three weeks in a row with Rocky as C.

[Jalapeno]

I think I am going to take Sloane as a VC loophole. Not worth risking it on Rocky for an extra 10-20 points.

[LaHug]

I think I am going to take Sloane as a VC loophole. Not worth risking it on Rocky for an extra 10-20 points.

Yeah. I didn't think this needed to be said but if anyone had Sloane VC you absolutely take him. I wouldn't be surprised if one or more of Rocky, Danger, GAJ break the 150 mark but I also wouldn't be too surprised if one or more of them choked a 90. So you don't take the risk, particularly considering injuries can happen!