LaHug's Captains 2016 - Round 13 - First Bye Round!

[LaHug]

I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
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As the great NSYNC once sang, "Byes Byes Byes". Well, close enough. Anyway, captains are extra important in bye rounds so listen up and listen well! For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. If I have the time (and they're relevant), I'll get to any requests you have too!

The facts & thoughts:

Goldstein
Last 3: 91, 99, 138 (109 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 88, 80, 118 (95 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 91, 138, 109 (113 avg)

I have no idea why Goldy doesn't average higher against the Hawks when he's so much better than any ruck they've had in ages. His closest comparison this year is Gawn who, despite 50 hitouts, only managed 85 against them two weeks back. Goldy will likely get more than Gawn's 8 disposals though and, at Etihad where he kills it, should ton. Prediction - 110

Lewis
Last 3: 126, 106, 140 (124 avg)
Last 3 against North: 117, 90, 89 (99 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 126, 60, 94 (93 avg)

Is Lewis back in form? His last three weeks certainly look good. North might be a bit tougher than Brisbane (140) and Essendon (126) so let's take those scores with a grain of salt. North gave up some big scores to Danger and Selwood last week after the loss of their key inside mids. Will it happen again? Maybe, but I'm not banking on it. Prediction - 105

S. Mitchell
Last 3: 109, 88, 53 (83 avg)
Last 3 against North: 130, 67, 97 (98 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 117, 85, 124 (109 avg)

I'm thinking Mitchell will be back this week and he'll be happy to hear that North aren't tagging. A 130 on them last year after 33 possies is more than possible to happen again this week. Prediction - 115

Rockliff
Last 3: 142, 184, 33 (120 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 109, 66, 114 (96 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 142, 132, 24 (99 avg)

When you've scored 326 points in your last two weeks, you have to be worth a look. West Coast are his 4th worst team to play over his career but his 109 earlier this year was from only 21 disposals (8 tackles helped). His current form says at least 30 disposals is very likely which is 18-27 points more than last game. Prediction - 130

Zorko
Last 3: 100, 104, 106 (103 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 76, 105, 80 (87 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 100, 106, 122 (109 avg)

West Coast gave up plenty of tons last week (6) and plenty again, including Hunter's 163, the week before (5). That said, Brisbane aren't quite the Bulldogs or Crows. Still, West Coast aren't restrictive enough to stop you backing Zorko for a ton. Prediction - 105

Priddis
Last 3: 114, 114, 90 (106 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 137, 101, 83 (107 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 101, 83, 80 (88 avg)

After seeing Mitch Robinson absolutely embarrass Bryce Gibbs (my no.1 option that week) and Lachie Neale (my no.2), I'd be naive not to learn my lesson. If Robinson goes to Shuey, Priddis will score very well, similar to his round 1 efforts of 137. Of course, if he cops the tag, he's doomed. Way too risky. Prediction - 110 (but watch out!)

Neale
Last 3: 52, 126, 104 (94 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 71, 59, 99 (76 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 126, 149, 99 (125 avg)

Last week made me open my eyes to what is now the most dangerous tag in the comp. This week, Neale doesn't play against Robinson and will be back to his best. His history against Port is shocking so that's all that's keeping me away but he should ton at home. Prediction - 115

Barlow
Last 3: 90, 113, 88 (97 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 136, 101, 112 (116 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 113, 59, 138 (103 avg)

You couldn't based on his topsy turvy form but his history against Port is very, very tempting. Prediction - 110

Hunter
Last 3: 85, 163, 122 (123 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 34, 78 (56 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 163, 71, 133 (122 avg)

His two scores against the Cats are a green vested 34 and a 78 in his second year. We can ignore that and look at his high ceiling but then we also need to consider untrustworthy consistency. Too much risk of a low score, but the Cats have given up some solid scores in recent weeks (Gibson's 132, Whitfield's 126) so there's hope. Prediction - 110

Boyd
Last 3: 89, 122, 97 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 49, 53, 108 (70 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 122, 101, 118 (114 avg)

If this weren't at Etihad, we'd be in trouble, but Boyd's been too good there to count him out. Last year, he played as an actual defender and in 2014 he just sucked. Still, he has years of tons against his name so let's chalk in another one. Prediction - 105

Bontempelli
Last 3: 98, 125, 91 (105 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 98, 116 (107 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 125, 122, 80 (109 avg)

I know he's more of a SC player than an AF/DT guy but the Bont has been good against the Cats, loves Etihad, and is in season best form! Prediction - 115

Dangerfield
Last 3: 187, 108, 122 (139 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 110, 110, 103 (108 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 187, 122, 118 (142 avg)

Even without the 187, we're strongly considering Danger this week. Ridiculously good form, loving Etihad (5/5 tons in the last two seasons!), three straight tons against the Bulldogs. It's a certain ton and the question is simply how big? Prediction - 125

Selwood
Last 3: 132, 111, 86 (110 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 81, 84, 100 (88 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 132, 86, 88 (102 avg)

Form is good enough to look past his shaky history but we all know Selwood can quickly revert to giving us a shocker. Too risky given he sometimes likes to chase his past. Prediction - 100

J.P. Kennedy
Last 3: 98, 124, 129 (117 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 136, 103, 83 (107 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 129, 115, 99 (114 avg)

If we just look at last week, Melbourne are super restrictive and you should never put a captain against them. Of course, Collingwood were shocking last week so that's not a big enough sample size. However, make that a 4 week sample size and you've got only 9 tons with only 2 of them 110+ (the highest being 116). Melbourne are currently very hard to score against! Kennedy's history is nice but it's risky. Prediction - 110

Hannebery
Last 3: 81, 115, 125 (107 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 74, 116, 74 (88 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 125, 102, 102 (110 avg)

He's been tagged in two of the last three times he's played the Dees and he's smashed them when they don't tag. You're lucky if you're a Hannebery owner because Roos isn't using taggers this season. Too risky though, with anything possible. Prediction - 105

Parker
Last 3: 66, 121, 59 (82 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 120, 110, 70 (100 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 59, 91, 121 (90 avg)

I'm conflicted... Melbourne aren't letting teams score much, Parker's spudding it up, yet he was good in his last two against them, giving him a bit of history. Saved himself a potato head but form still says no. Prediction - 95

T. Mitchell
Last 3: 98, 132, 163 (131 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 101, 104 (103 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 163, 130, 92 (128 avg)

I'm only doing so many Swans players because I know you'll all riot if I don't... That said, Mitchell is your pick of the bunch this year with 2/2 tons against them and ridiculous form at the SCG. Prediction - 120

Gawn
Last 3: 146, 85, 142 (124 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 96 (96 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: N/A

Never played at the SCG, only played the Swans once, playing against no Tippett, will get 50+ hitouts, career high in disposals last week gives him huge momentum. Yeah, Gawn's gonna be good this week. Prediction - 125

Merrett
Last 3: 115, 121, 115 (117 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 87 (87 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 115, 90, 143 (116 avg)

Merrett's back in form but there's no way in hell you want to play against the Giants right now. They held the Swans tonless last week and even kept the Cats to just the three tons (with Selwood and Bartel needing big fourth quarters to get there). I'm not liking the Bombers' chances here with GWS likely to play bully and go for percentage. Merrett's form gets him the pass but only just. Prediction - 100

Ward
Last 3: 110, 117, 64 (97 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 70, 108, 81 (86 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 97, 123, 70 (97 avg)

Everyone gets the "we're playing Essendon's B team who are also really exhausted now" bonus but that's not enough to make Ward worth a look on current form. Prediction - 110

Shaw
Last 3: 109, 95, 80 (95 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 95, 125, 93 (104 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 131, 77, 136 (115 avg)

Here's a man that will get very involved this week (unless the ball never goes down there... which it might not). The only reason I'm not predicting something huge is his 11 point 4th quarter last week. When the Giants are putting the foot down, it doesn't need to switch through the Shaw as they're already forward of centre. Prediction - 115

Greene
Last 3: 113, 78, 92 (94 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 120, 100, 84 (101 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 141, 56, 122 (106 avg)

My second choice for Roughie this week. Has the history against the Bombers to make it enticing without the Bombers bonus but he's way too inconsistent. Prediction - 115

LAHUG'S ROUGHIE OF THE WEEK!

Want a huge POD to make up for stuffing up your bye structure? Remember what they say: "You gotta risk it to get the biscuit!" In this segment, I'll talk about someone that, partly because of stats and mostly because of gut feeling, I think will go huge this week. It'll usually be somebody that you wouldn't usually give the C to but, if you have him and are feeling brave, might be worth a look.

Gray
Last 3: 113, 86, 103 (101 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 93, 122, 95 (103 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 122, 95, 113 (110 avg)

These numbers don't necessarily jump out as spectacular but Fremantle's last few weeks certainly do. 142 to Rocky, 139 to Cutler, 121 to Merrett, 158 to Armitage, 136 to Riewoldt, 135 to Steven, 123 to Montagna, 127 to Cotchin. They don't care how much of the ball their opponents get and it's beautiful for our fantasy teams. You could pick anyone playing Freo for a POD and I'm just highlighting their best player. Gutsy Prediction - 135

LAHUG'S POTATO FORECAST!

A potatoey week off last week but I want to reiterate that my spuds have been particularly hot in recent weeks. Beware! Basically, I'll highlight a premium that is probably in plenty of teams but is both down on form and has some terrible history against this week's opponent. Get ready for a shocker of a score!

Zaharakis
Last 3: 108, 26, 103 (79 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 91, 132, 95 (106 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 108, 104, 57 (90 avg)

Do you know who doesn't have the form to get a pass against the super stingy Giants? This guy! If you read my Merrett write up, you'll see that the Giants are scarily stingy and I'd be surprised to see them leak more than one ton. Zaka will try hard but I can't see it being enough. History against the Giants saves this from being embarrassing. Spudiction - 75

The verdict:
1.   Rockliff (130)

2.   Dangerfield (125)
3.   Gawn (125)
4.   T. Mitchell (120)
5.   Bontempelli (115)

Requests:

J.J. Kennedy   - Requested by nrich102
Last 3: 88, 52, 113 (84 avg)   
Last 3 against Brisbane: 180, 91, 76 (116 avg)   
Last 3 at Gabba: 91, 76, 64 (77 avg)   

Chasing that 180, are we? Let's be real here. Firstly, that 180 was his first ever ton against the Lions and came because of an 8 goal haul. I think another 8 isn't likely but the Lions have given up three 5 goal hauls and another four 4 goal hauls in the past four weeks. Let's say he kicks 5. I think 25 disposals (by far a season high) and 16 marks (also a huge season high) are stupidly unlikely. Drop that to a more reasonable 15 (-9 kicks, -1 handball) and 10 and we get 115 which would still be his second highest score of the year. Hell, the Lions have only given up 3 scores of 120+ in the last 4 weeks, with the highest score by a forward Mayne's 119. You pick him if you're more than happy with a flat 100 and you wanna shoot for that rare 150+. Prediction - 110



I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
Please follow this link: https://my-own-way-2016.everydayhero.com/au/william-huggett

[WhatMate]

Love the right up every week mate!

I've gone with Rocky myself, I really like Shaw as a rough option, Gibson and Birchall both still racked up last week and heavily one sided games havent stopped him previously, 132 vs Suns (92 point Win) and 135 vs Hawks (75 point win) although that being said both were at the Showgrounds which he seems to enjoy, I think we can lock him in for a tonne its just a matter of how big.

[Thunderbolts]

Another week another great write up!!

Rocky for me.

[nrich102]

If you have a minute could you look at JJK pls late :)

[LaHug]

J.J. Kennedy   - Requested by nrich102
Last 3: 88, 52, 113 (84 avg)   
Last 3 against Brisbane: 180, 91, 76 (116 avg)   
Last 3 at Gabba: 91, 76, 64 (77 avg)   

Chasing that 180, are we? Let's be real here. Firstly, that 180 was his first ever ton against the Lions and came because of an 8 goal haul. I think another 8 isn't likely but the Lions have given up three 5 goal hauls and another four 4 goal hauls in the past four weeks. Let's say he kicks 5. I think 25 disposals (by far a season high) and 16 marks (also a huge season high) are stupidly unlikely. Drop that to a more reasonable 15 (-9 kicks, -1 handball) and 10 and we get 115 which would still be his second highest score of the year. Hell, the Lions have only given up 3 scores of 120+ in the last 4 weeks, with the highest score by a forward Mayne's 119. You pick him if you're more than happy with a flat 100 and you wanna shoot for that rare 150+. Prediction - 110



I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
Please follow this link: https://my-own-way-2016.everydayhero.com/au/william-huggett

[nrich102]

Thanks Huggy!  :D

[LaHug]

Thanks Huggy!  :D

Probably the most in-depth I've gone for a request because I was so genuinely curious.

[Mat0369]

I had it on Zorks and swapped it to Tom Mitchell about a minute before lockout  :-X

My captains choices are probably costing me right now. Here are my captains in DT so far this season

1. Rocky - 109. Not too bad but had Steven VC who scored 123 and a couple other big options over 130.
2. Steven - 104. Went chasing the points. Rocky put up a huge 24 and my other captain options were not great either so one tick.
3. Tom Mitchell - 111. Again pretty good when looking at it in isolation. Brought him in and gave him the big C, however the three alternatives in Parker and Steven scored 121, 133 and 149! Small loss but probably a tick since he scored over 110.
4. Tom Mitchell - 60. The bad run starts. The alternatives were not great with both not hitting the ton.
5. Steven - 100. Probably not terrible again, but Parker and Pendles where the other 2 and scored 114 and 127.
6, Goldy - 64. An absolute stinker. New recruit NRoo was the one I was looking at and he scored 126. Steven and Parker also scored 117 and 141 a piece.
7. Parker - 95. Went point chasing and ignored NRoo again. Guys I looked at before ultimately settling on Parker were Steven, Mitchell, NRoo and Zorks. Not going Steven was good but NRoo scored 144! A couple of other scores over 110 as well.
8. NRoo - 101 - Finally gave it to NRoo after tossing a coin between him and Zorko based on form. Zorko scored 122.
9. NRoo - 112. Pretty good and was looking at giving it to one of 3 Saints vs the Dons. Went with NRoo, the other two in Stevn and Joey scored 138 and 101.
10. Jack Steven - 135 - Can't complain, Roo only scored 1 more point, Mitchell did go nuts for 163 and I think my opponent had him in a league game as captain that week  :-X
11. Gibbs - 58. Against my gut went Gibbs in not only trading him in, but making him captain. All other options hit the ton, a couple over 130.
12. Gibbs - 75. Didn't learn my lesson, was between him and Steven, Steven scored 132.

The last two weeks have been really costly, hopefully Mitchell can at least score 110 because Zorko finished on 147  :'(

[Mat0369]

Mitchell 11 DT in the first quarter. Fark my DT

[Mat0369]

I had some lunch and just saw Mitchell scored 41 points in that quarter  ;D

I need a couple more of those.

[Mat0369]

Finished on 112. I'll take it considering he was on 11 at QT.

[LaHug]

Rocky 135, Danger 143, Gawn 132, Mitchell 114, Bont 104

I'll take that from my top 5