LaHug's Captains 2016 - Round 12

[LaHug]

I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
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If it weren't for Gibbs, I'd be on two superb weeks in a row. If only... For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. If I have the time (and they're relevant), I'll get to any requests you have too!

The facts & thoughts:

Merrett
Last 3: 121, 115, 90 (109 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 90, 116, 35 (80 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 90, 143, 107 (113 avg)

Well... this is going to be a hard game to tip... At Etihad and with pretty good form against the Hawks, Merrett should be good despite a likely one-sided result. Prediction - 115

Zaharakis
Last 3: 26, 103, 104 (78 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 75, 91, 68 (78 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 104, 57, 92 (84 avg)

His record against the Hawks makes me think he won't ton this week. Last week was a nightmare but I'm hopeful it was a once off. Prediction - 85

Lewis
Last 3: 106, 140, 73 (106 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 82, 119, 66 (89 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 60, 94, 111 (88 avg)

Essendon has given up 10 tons in the last two games and look exhausted. This means that you can comfortably expect the top 5 or so Hawks to score tons. Lewis is one of these guys and, despite his bad record at Etihad, he proved just two weeks ago he can score big. Could be worth a punt. Prediction - 110

S. Mitchell
Last 3: 109, 88, 53 (83 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 91, 111, 109 (104 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 117, 85, 124 (109 avg)

The numbers don't look great but there's nobody at the Bombers with the tank to tag him right now meaning Mitchell could return to those scores from earlier in the year. Prediction - 115

Hunter
Last 3: 163, 122, 92 (126 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 89 (89 avg)
Last 3 at AO: N/A

Not many numbers to look at this week but his current form can't be ignored. Strongly consider. Prediction - 115

Boyd
Last 3: 122, 97, 113 (111 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 120, 87, 92 (100 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 87, 92 (90 avg)

Boyd scored very well last week but it was expected based on his history against the Eagles. With last year's 120 in the mix, he might be worth a look. Prediction - 110

Rockliff
Last 3: 184, 33, 132 (116 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 154, 172, 80 (135 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 132, 24, 149 (102 avg)

To anyone that traded him in last week, kudos! To those that held him and made him captain, kudos again! To people that are gonna trade him in based on last week's score... you're in luck! He smashes the Dockers and, although Freo just showed that they can beat bad teams, losing didn't stop Rocky scoring 184 last week. At the Gabba is just the icing on the cake. Prediction - 140 (and that's conservative)

Zorko
Last 3: 104, 106, 91 (100 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 108, 132, 43 (94 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 106, 122, 148 (125 avg)

Not Rocky level ridiculous but good against the Dockers nonetheless. The Gabba is what's really exciting me as that form is delicious. Prediction - 120

Neale
Last 3: 126, 104, 149 (126 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 117, 107, 124 (116 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 107 (107 avg)

Neale is the non-Rocky option for this week (and I don't have either of them). Form is a big tick, history is a big tick, even the ground hasn't caused problems (in only one game there). He will almost certainly get tagged by Robinson (holding Sam Mitchell and Gibbs to 88 and 58 in recent weeks) but Neale had 40 disposals when tagged by Adelaide this year so... Prediction - 125

Goldstein
Last 3: 99, 138, 109 (115 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 140, 131, 130 (134 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 138, 109, 113 (120 avg)

How's his knee? If he's 100% healthy, he's scoring 130. If he's out, he's out. If he plays but is still sore, we're looking at 100ish. I'll update this when I hear more news but it's the middle ground for now. Prediction - 100

Selwood
Last 3: 111, 86, 70 (89 avg)
Last 3 against North: 94, 94, 108 (99 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 86, 88, 94 (89 avg)

Single-handedly won the game last week but I don't think it matters. North are stingy, Selwood has a mediocre history against them, and Selwood isn't good at Etihad. Won't be spud-worthy but won't ton. Prediction - 90

Dangerfield
Last 3: 108, 122, 107 (112 avg)
Last 3 against North: 93, 87, 73 (84 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 122, 118, 110 (117 avg)

Danger is the better Cat at Etihad but his North history still worries me. Look elsewhere, despite good form. Prediction - 110

Sloane
Last 3: 140, 81, 106 (109 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 111, 108, 86 (102 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 87, 86, 112 (95 avg)

Sloane went bang last week, as expected, and his history against the Eagles says he should be good again. My fear is his form out West is far from good. Prediction - 105

Steven
Last 3: 103, 135, 138 (125 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 92, 62, 67 (74 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 135, 138, 58 (110 avg)

Loves Etihad and, after what Rocky did last week, it might be worth considering someone against the Blues. His history against them makes me think otherwise though. Prediction - 110

Gibbs
Last 3: 58, 137, 106 (100 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 81, 67, 131 (93 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 58, 137, 106 (100 avg)

Gibbs was tagged last week and it stopped a run of really good form. St Kilda won't tag him and, despite a shaky history, form trumps that. Add that St Kilda gave up 8 tons last week, many big, and you've got a very solid option. Prediction - 120

Cotchin
Last 3: 118, 120, 127 (122 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 100, 127, 114 (114 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 120, 57, 110 (96 avg)

I keep talking this guy up and I keep not trading him into any teams but here's another week where he'll be really good. Against the Suns, he has a solid history, and he's racking it up like it's 2012 again. Prediction - 120

D. Martin
Last 3: 67, 123, 107 (99 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 140, 100, 120 (120 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 123, 123, 99 (115 avg)

Will bounce back. Loves the Suns. BOOM! Prediction - 120

Ablett
Last 3: 124, 120, 82 (109 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 141, 106, 128 (125 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 61, 119, 139 (106 avg)

GAJ is back and he loves playing the Tiges more than Tigers mids love playing the Suns. Usually pretty good at the MCG too, barring that 61. Finally, check out Daniel Wells last week, an inside midfielder that kicked a few goals, 126 points to his name... and GAJ could be better than Wells. Prediction - 125

Ward
Last 3: 117, 64, 139 (107 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 89, 92, 100 (94 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 139, 91, 110 (113 avg)

Tough to call this week with Ward up and down all season. However, the lack of good history against the Swans is enough to keep me away. Prediction - 95

Shaw
Last 3: 95, 80, 176 (117 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 113, 119, 81 (104 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 176, 132, 135 (148 avg)

Back at the Showgrounds and against the Swans. YES! I said before the 80 that Shaw plays true to history, and I was right. I said before the 176 that Shaw plays true to history, and I was right. Shaw's history against the Swans, combined with a career best season, makes him really tempting this week. Prediction - 125

J.P. Kennedy
Last 3: 124, 129, 88 (114 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 118, 127, 67 (104 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 127, 83 (105 avg)

Form and history are good and it's only his unpredictability (i.e. random score well under 100 for no reason) that has me keeping my distance. Prediction - 115

Hannebery
Last 3: 115, 125, 99 (113 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 100, 83, 111 (98 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 83, 66 (75 avg)

Up and down against the Giants but Hanners has been pretty good this year at scoring you a ton (or very close to). There are better options but he'll be good. Prediction - 110

Parker
Last 3: 121, 59, 103 (94 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 121, 61, 82 (88 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 90 (90 avg)

Bounced back last week and scored a solid 121 in the last Sydney derby. That said, his form prior to last week makes him way too risky. Prediction - 100

T. Mitchell
Last 3: 132, 163, 87 (127 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 111, 93, 113 (106 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 93 (93 avg)

Form is bloody fantastic and history is definitely good enough to be worth a solid look. Prediction - 120

Pendlebury
Last 3: 133, 124, 114 (124 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 103, 93, 119 (105 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 133, 124, 114 (124 avg)

Pendles is in excellent form and has a good enough history against the Dees to make him a big option. Prediction - 125

Sidebottom
Last 3: 89, 107, 131 (109 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 122, 80, 62 (88 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 89, 107, 131 (109 avg)

Consistency is key in a reliable captain option and Sidebottom lacks it severely. Will he get another 89 or a 131? A 122 or a 62? Too much variability. Prediction - 105

Treloar
Last 3: 100, 119, 116 (112 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 123, 90, 86 (100 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 100, 119, 116 (112 avg)

Form is more than good enough to consider him. He was good last time they played the Dees and I think he'll be good again. Prediction - 110

LAHUG'S ROUGHIE OF THE WEEK!

So my Roughies are clearly better the best captain choice with Rocky more than backing up Montagna's score. In this segment, I'll talk about someone that, partly because of stats and mostly because of gut feeling, I think will go huge this week. It'll usually be somebody that you wouldn't usually give the C to but, if you have him and are feeling brave, might be worth a look.

Macrae
Last 3: 126, 139, 91 (119 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 87, 130, 103 (107 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 130, 103 (117 avg)

Do it! His last two weeks have shown some really good form but what I'm most excited about is 130 vs. Port in Adelaide just last year. This same venue, and I think Macrae is better now than he was then. Gutsy prediction - 140

LAHUG'S POTATO FORECAST!

My Potatoes continue to score horrifically with Sam Mitchell copping a tag as expected, so heed my warning and stay away from all my spuds! Basically, I'll highlight a premium that is probably in plenty of teams but is both down on form and has some terrible history against this week's opponent. Get ready for a shocker of a score!

Well... lucky for everyone in the Fantasy world, I can't find any spuds this week. I looked hard too! I went through all of the top ownership players considered "premium" and everyone looks good. Feel free to recommend a spud and I'll have a look!

The verdict:
1.   Rockliff (140)

2.   Neale (125)
3.   Ablett (125)
4.   Pendlebury (125)
5.   Shaw (125)

Requests:



I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
Please follow this link: https://my-own-way-2016.everydayhero.com/au/william-huggett

[Chelskiman]

God damn Rocky.  I didn't want to waste yet another trade on him, but last week's score was nuts and he loves Freo.  I had Zorko on my radar to bring in this week, but the allure of Rocky might be too much.

[Thunderbolts]

After last week it has to be Rocky or nothing!!  8) The ball will be flowing to him so you'd be silly not to back him in for a 140+

[Rusty00]

I've seen this movie many time before - Rocky comes back from injury, pumps out a monster score, everyone scrambles to bring him in every one of their teams, makes him Captain in every one of their teams, Rocky gets injured, everyone says he is on the never again list.

Looks Captain Rocky for me then ;)

[LaHug]

I've seen this movie many time before - Rocky comes back from injury, pumps out a monster score, everyone scrambles to bring him in every one of their teams, makes him Captain in every one of their teams, Rocky gets injured, everyone says he is on the never again list.

Looks Captain Rocky for me then ;)

It's unfortunate because injury is really the only thing that will stop him but it's also something that's actually quite probable...

[Jalapeno]

Great read LH thank you. I dont have Rocky or Neale   :-[

Could I request Isaac Smith, just out of curiosity and with it been a bit harder week for me to choose I may go POD.

Thanks man

[LaHug]

Great read LH thank you. I dont have Rocky or Neale   :-[

Could I request Isaac Smith, just out of curiosity and with it been a bit harder week for me to choose I may go POD.

Thanks man

Won't have time to do a proper one, sorry.

But, basically, one ton in his last three, pretty poor record against Essendon and at Etihad. That said, Essendon are very different this year. I'd expect a ton based on Essendon giving everyone tons but it won't be captain worthy (maybe 100-105ish)

[Mat0369]

I'll be curious to see if they send Mitchell to Ward this week but I need to decide between one of Gibbs, Gaz, Steven and Pendles. I'm leaning towards Pendles due to his consistency

[blue]

I'm slightly concerned about Barlow going to rocky, so I think I might go Pendlebury

[GoLions]

I'm slightly concerned about Barlow going to rocky, so I think I might go Pendlebury

Reckon Rocky and Neale go H2H, Barlow goes to Hanley, Robbo to Mundy perhaps

[Chelskiman]

I'm slightly concerned about Barlow going to rocky, so I think I might go Pendlebury

Reckon Rocky and Neale go H2H, Barlow goes to Hanley, Robbo to Mundy perhaps

That would be fantastic.

[LaHug]

I'm slightly concerned about Barlow going to rocky, so I think I might go Pendlebury

Reckon Rocky and Neale go H2H, Barlow goes to Hanley, Robbo to Mundy perhaps

That would be fantastic.

140+ for both if it happens

[Ricochet]

I'm slightly concerned about Barlow going to rocky, so I think I might go Pendlebury

We'll tag Hanley first

[Mr.Craig]

Worth pointing out that Dangerfield's two poor scores vs North were due to heavy checking from Greenwood and Bastinac, both of whom have left the club.

[LaHug]

Worth pointing out that Dangerfield's two poor scores vs North were due to heavy checking from Greenwood and Bastinac, both of whom have left the club.

Very interesting point that I missed. Cheers MC!