WXV Round 12: Reindeer Revival & Saint Slump

[Purple 77]

We have a Monday game, which means...

NAME FOUR EMERGENCIES THIS WEEK

Round 12, AFL Round 12

Home Team	Away Team	Venue	Head-to-Head
Cairo Sands	Berlin Brewers	Borg El Arab Stadium	1  v  3
Christchurch Saints	Beijing Thunder	AMI Stadium	1  v  0
Mexico City Suns	Pacific Islanders	Guadalajara, AAP Alliance	4  v  0
Moscow Spetsnaz	Buenos Aires Armadillos	Luzhniki Stadium	2  v  4
New Delhi Tigers	Cape Town Cobras	Nepal	1  v  3
New York Revolution	London Royals	Neutral, Manuka	3  v  1
PNL Reindeers	Tokyo Samurai	State de France, EurAsia	2  v  2
Rio de Janeiro Jaguars	Seoul Magpies	Maracana Stadium	0  v  1
Toronto Wolves	Dublin Destroyers	Rogers Centre	1  v  3

Well, on the bright side, it can't get much worse... can it? The Sands lost to the previously winless Wolves last week and, if the Wolves win just one more game, they will likely have some wooden-ware for their 2016 troubles. But really, it would be pretty hard to win any game if you've got the likes of Adams, Beams, Higgins & even Stokes and McGovern out of the team through injury. I mean, just look at Berlin, they can't win without Fyfe, Viney, M.Johnson, Hibberd or the true Brad Crouch despite sitting 6th on the points ladder. It's bull shower is what it is, and I feel like Cairo totally understand. But geez, I just get this feeling Cairo REALLY want to beat me this week, but I can't quite figure out why... anyway, surely Berlin account for this run-down, beaten, uncompetitive and poorly managed team that saw them play an OOP midfielder last week? I just hope the coaches at Cairo can just lay off the hate they put my way for just one week... give me a break!

It's a miracle that the Saints 1) sit 4th on the ladder whilst being 13th on the points ladder and 2) have somehow managed to remain in World Idol despite an awful last three weeks that has seen them score 117, 122 & 123. Although I admire the Saints ability to keep winning (no thanks to having the least amount of points scored against them this year I'm sure), I gotta admit, I'm starting to lose a bit of respect for them week-by-week strictly in terms of being a finals contender. The Thunder heartbreakingly came off second best last week in what should be called the match of the year; losing by one SC point to the Pacific Islanders despite posting their highest score of the year (1507) off the back of a brilliant resting strategy that saw Josh Jenkins (171 + 18 rest bonus) break the record for the highest rest bonus ever. The Thunder have scored 88 WXV points (approximately 880 SC) more than the Saints this year, and yet sit 4 spots below them at 8th... that's crazy. Beijing to inflict some justice here.

Oh boy, the Suns whipped out something fierce last week. They were already a premiership threatening team, then we all got reminded that they've been missing a fully fit Rockliff and the impact that he could do in the month of September. The Suns smashed fellow top 4 contender New York with a horrifying score of 168, which although lower than their score of 178 posted just two weeks before, this one was more impressive simply due to the fact that they slowed down towards the end of the match. I asked for Mexico City to give me something to write about... so thanks for that! The Islanders are coming off a THRILLING one SC point victory against its like-team in Beijing in what would be the match of the year so far. It's even more impressive when you consider what was at stake for the Islanders; coming off a three-game losing streak with a fourth loss condemning them to a game and a lot of percentage away from the top 8 with just 6 games to go. However, after this match, Pacific will only face one more top 8 team for the rest of the year but win here and they could even go on to book a home final. But I just can't tip a team that has averaged 161 in the last 3 weeks.

Whilst Beijing v Pacific were playing the match of the year, Moscow took part in a contender for the worst game of the year... and losing it. The Spetsnaz had a perfect opportunity to knock off the performing New Delhi Tigers and post their 3 straight win and just be percentage from the eight, but again their outs were heavily felt when they sorely needed them. Buenos Aires though, are crazy! No team would be expected to win seven straight games after dropping their first four and set itself up perfectly to be a finals contender! But even at the start of the streak, you felt the Dillos were just getting lucky with wins from 130+ scores. But in the last month, they scored 149 three times (wtf lol), and are actually showing to be a worthy finals participant. The Dillos have got Moscow Spetsnaz, London, Beijing, New Delhi, Rio and Cairo for the rest of the year... just keep going at make the four?! The Spetsnaz can challenge, but I think I'll back the Dillos again.

The Tigers got luck last week; winning with the 3rd lowest score of the week. But to be fair, they were probably due for a bit of luck when you consider were they have come from... luck turns with form I guess! The Tigers sit 10th and just a game and a bit of percentage outside the eight, and when you consider that they finished in the bottom 6 last year and will hence play those teams in the final 5 weeks... then they're every chance to make the finals! Cape Town have had a really solid past 3 weeks with scores of 141, 132 and 144 despite losing their last two matches. For a currently bottom 4 team, they're not that bad are they? It's a tough, tough comp this year and although only with 3 wins, the Cobras present a danger game for all of its opponents. Cape Town would have beaten New Delhi last week, but I expect the Tigers to respond to their down game and account for the Cobras.

The Revolution were faced with a top tier opponent and an opportunity to be viewed in the same light with a win. Although they lost and shown what to expect in finals by the very best, their performance certainly didn't lose any admirers either with a solid 143. Cruelly however, they are now two games behind the top 3 and I think those teams are almost certainties to occupy those spots after Round 17. That just makes the race for the fourth spot a bit more heated, even if the other two teams that share their 7-4 record are the less fancied Christchurch & Buenos Aires. The Royals have been a much bigger success that what everyone, including maybe even their coach, thought they would be this year; posting yet another win (their 5th) against a current top 4 side in Christchurch last week. With London, you know what to expect with every one of their scores in the 120-136 range (last week's score of 135 was their season high), and as such I'm not blinking when I tip the Revolution... the Royals just don't have the ceiling, yet.

No huge stand-outs this week, but after much thought this game is my MATCH OF THE ROUND! The Reindeers are BACK! Have you ever seen a mid-season revival this well done (*let me have this Buenos Aires*)? PNL have scored 147, 145, 147 & 157 in their last 4 weeks to net 4 wins and 4th in points scored during this time. The Reindeers just needed time to realise what their new best XV looked like without Swan & Hodge featuring, and for those XV to take time to gel, and gel they have! So if the Reindeers are so good and all, why I have declared this my MOTR against the 16th placed Tokyo? I'm glad you asked! The Samurai have been known to bob-up every now and then in the last year and a half and snatch a win against a more fancied team. The Samurai actually have quite a large ceiling... they just not very consistent in achieving it. Having said that, they have scored 140, 141, 136 & 135 in what has been a solid month for them despite losing the last three games. The Samurai have actually ranked 8th in points scored in this time, so I actually think this game has all the hallmarks of an upset Samurai win. And you know what? I'm gonna back them in!

The Jaguars have seemed to fit into the "accepted elite team" way of thinking by the competition; quietly going about their business with win after win and all but securing a top 3 berth. I'll also remind you, that the Jaguars have probably had the toughest draw of anyone so far this year (because they'll play 2016 bottom 6 teams after this week for the rest of the H&A season) and to sit 3rd after all that is pretty damn impressive. It's just a matter of managing your players correctly for the finals and ensuring you keep winning in the meantime for the Jaguars. The Magpies haven't troubled the 140 barrier in a while now; having now slipped to 15th in total points scored in the last month. However, they still sit a game and percentage outside the eight so finals is still a very real possibility for them, but they can't really afford to lose more than 1 match for the rest of the season. I actually kinda feel that Seoul is overdue for a good performance, and I give them a real chance to beat Rio at Maracana Stadium, but that HGA has me favouring Jaguars for this one.

TORONTOOOOO! YES BOIZ! The Wolves won their first match of the season last week (and their first win under new coach Adamant!) and would be feeling on top of the world in the days proceeding! Although they still sit at the bottom of the ladder, their final 5 matches of the year present some opportunities to maybe snatch another win and if they do so, will likely avoid receiving the spoon which no one wants to have achieved in their time as coach. I say final 5 fully aware that this is their 6th last match, because they have no chance at winning this game. It just won't happen... there is no betting market, it's been closed. Toronto's season high of 128 is still 4 points below Dublin's worst of 132, and the Destroyers are simply just too good. The Destroyers play Christchurch next week, so maybe they'll look at resting Joel Selwood or someone? Still, I hope the Wolves will be aiming to top 132 just in case Dublin don't turn up, but Dublin will win here.

[Ricochet]

Genuinely torn... Want JPK to post 3000 points this week for my SC team

but want him to catch gastro, struggle to run and not get anywhere near it for Worlds

[Holz]

Backs:  A.Rance, G.Birchall, J.Weitering, H.Grundy
Mids: J.Selwood, A.Treloar (CC), N. Dal Santo, L.Jetta
Ruck: T.Goldstein (CC)
Fwds: D.Martin, L.Franklin,J.Gunston, J.Riewoldt
Interchange: S.Collins, N.Jetta


Emg: C.Byrne, L.Jetta, M.Daw, M.Pittonet
Rest:  R.Sloane

looking very weak with Sloane, Murphy, Roughy, Yarran not in the squad.

[Nige]

Reading that first preview, I can't help but feel that in some ways, this match is just bigger than your regular home and away WXVs game. There is so much more at stake here. I thought maybe, just maybe, that we'd get some love after another week from hell, but nope, that's too much to ask for.

This admin fella I tell ya, terrible guy.  :P

Just you wait Purple 77, just you wait.

Bring it.

[Purple 77]

Reading that first preview, I can't help but feel that in some ways, this match is just bigger than your regular home and away WXVs game. There is so much more at stake here. I thought maybe, just maybe, that we'd get some love after another week from hell, but nope, that's too much to ask for.

This admin fella I tell ya, terrible guy.  :P

Just you wait Purple 77, just you wait.

Bring it.

[RaisyDaisy]

LOL Holz, stop mentioning Roughy and Yarran - they're LTI and we all know :P

Never know what to expect from London, so I'm a little nervous about this one but as long as our starting 15 can perform to expectations then we should be able to get the job done

Looks like there are a few teams gunning for that 4th spot, so I am hopeful we can continue to produce and get it!

Would rather face Dublin than Mexico in the first week  :-X

[ossie85]

Genuinely torn... Want JPK to post 3000 points this week for my SC team

but want him to catch gastro, struggle to run and not get anywhere near it for Worlds

The answer is obvious. JPK scores 160 in a half, before getting gastro just before half time and being subbed out in Worlds

[Ricochet]

Genuinely torn... Want JPK to post 3000 points this week for my SC team

but want him to catch gastro, struggle to run and not get anywhere near it for Worlds

The answer is obvious. JPK scores 160 in a half, before getting gastro just before half time and being subbed out in Worlds

haha and then i buy a lotto ticket

[meow meow]

You shouldn't respect us. We're shower and just extremely lucky. Lose all the respect that you have for Christchurch and replace it with compo. Our team is trash and we need help.

[meow meow]

Rory Sloane will suffer the same fate as Toby Mac and a host of other rested players. Unavailability after their rest.

[Toga]

BEIJING THUNDER:
D: H.Taylor, L.Brown, S.Mayes, D.Howe
M: L.Neale (CC), C.Ward, O.Wines, B.Ellis
R: B.Grundy
F: D.Zorko (CC), K.Lambert, J.Jenkins, C.Petracca
I/C: J.Caddy, B.Kennedy

Rest: J.Polec

Emg: B.Hill (m), K.Stewart (m), J.Hunt (f), T.O'Brien (f)

OUT: A.Christensen (collarbone)
IN: B.Kennedy

[meow meow]

Griff should be back this week and Zorko is due for a shocker. It won't make up for the abysmally unjust trade being allowed to pass but if there's any justice in the universe my man Griff should outscore Dayne by about 50 points this week.

[meow meow]

I've heard enough about Petracca and if he wins the WXV rising star it'll be a joke. Connor Blakely has a 3 week average of 104. He had a breakout game 3 weeks ago and won't look back. Struggled in the first half last week with just 4 possessions, finished the game with 25. Gun!

[meow meow]

Gibbs 10
Rocky 2

[meow meow]

As for trades, anyone who isn't 18, 19, 20, 29+ on my list is available. That includes Gibbs, Hartlett, Stringer, Reid, Breust for those of you who are looking for one or maybe even two premos in their prime. There's plenty of best 15 quality like Nathan Wilson and Koby Stevens in the 21-28 range available too.