Aaron Hall - to keep or to chop

Started by King_Robbo, June 05, 2016, 02:05:33 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

MontyJnr

Quote from: tor01doc on June 06, 2016, 04:02:56 PM
Quote from: MontyJnr on June 06, 2016, 03:54:55 PM
I would still get rid of Kerridge before Hall. Everyone forgets that Kerridge put up a 60 against Geelong just 2 weeks ago, probably because they forgive him for being a 'rookie' pick.

Player         DPP       Price this week    Projected next week        BE          3 round ave             5 Round ave   

Hall               F/M      413K                     409K                        138                 68                          75           

Kerridge        F/M      417K                     430K                          56                100                         90         


I know who I'd keep.

I just think Hall has more upside as a M9/F7 player you can loophole. Carlton has had a super easy run, so who is to say Kerridge's good scoring will continue against the tougher sides.

Holz

Quote from: MontyJnr on June 06, 2016, 04:05:32 PM
Quote from: tor01doc on June 06, 2016, 04:02:56 PM
Quote from: MontyJnr on June 06, 2016, 03:54:55 PM
I would still get rid of Kerridge before Hall. Everyone forgets that Kerridge put up a 60 against Geelong just 2 weeks ago, probably because they forgive him for being a 'rookie' pick.

Player         DPP       Price this week    Projected next week        BE          3 round ave             5 Round ave   

Hall               F/M      413K                     409K                        138                 68                          75           

Kerridge        F/M      417K                     430K                          56                100                         90         


I know who I'd keep.

I just think Hall has more upside as a M9/F7 player you can loophole. Carlton has had a super easy run, so who is to say Kerridge's good scoring will continue against the tougher sides.

but kerridge is up and down so he is the far better loophole. Hall hasnt gone 100+ since round 4.

Kerridge has 3 times.

he has also gone 105 on north in a big loss, and 107 on sydney.

MontyJnr

Quote from: Holz on June 06, 2016, 04:08:52 PM
Quote from: MontyJnr on June 06, 2016, 04:05:32 PM
Quote from: tor01doc on June 06, 2016, 04:02:56 PM
Quote from: MontyJnr on June 06, 2016, 03:54:55 PM
I would still get rid of Kerridge before Hall. Everyone forgets that Kerridge put up a 60 against Geelong just 2 weeks ago, probably because they forgive him for being a 'rookie' pick.

Player         DPP       Price this week    Projected next week        BE          3 round ave             5 Round ave   

Hall               F/M      413K                     409K                        138                 68                          75           

Kerridge        F/M      417K                     430K                          56                100                         90         


I know who I'd keep.

I just think Hall has more upside as a M9/F7 player you can loophole. Carlton has had a super easy run, so who is to say Kerridge's good scoring will continue against the tougher sides.

but kerridge is up and down so he is the far better loophole. Hall hasnt gone 100+ since round 4.

Kerridge has 3 times.

he has also gone 105 on north in a big loss, and 107 on sydney.

Yeah well we all know that Kerridge towels up North regardless ;) One more chance for both players this week anyway and one will be traded to Dahlhaus before the bye

Bully

Quote from: Holz on June 06, 2016, 04:00:19 PM
Quote from: MontyJnr on June 06, 2016, 03:54:55 PM
I would still get rid of Kerridge before Hall. Everyone forgets that Kerridge put up a 60 against Geelong just 2 weeks ago, probably because they forgive him for being a 'rookie' pick.

I cant say im unbias in this convo but last 7 weeks.

90 76 95 84 0 68 52 v

115 62 82 67 105 68 126

kerridge is up and down but still averaging 89 in that period. Ill take that over 77.

Kerridge is a great F7 M9 link aswell.

Hall also has a BE of 138 and Kerridge a BE of 56, all the evidence points to cutting the losses with Hall. At the end of the day Hall looks toast as a SC player, the shoulder has really impacted on his scoring. Six tackles the last 3 weeks is also an ominous sign.

tor01doc

Quote from: Holz on June 06, 2016, 04:08:52 PM
Quote from: MontyJnr on June 06, 2016, 04:05:32 PM
Quote from: tor01doc on June 06, 2016, 04:02:56 PM
Quote from: MontyJnr on June 06, 2016, 03:54:55 PM
I would still get rid of Kerridge before Hall. Everyone forgets that Kerridge put up a 60 against Geelong just 2 weeks ago, probably because they forgive him for being a 'rookie' pick.

Player         DPP       Price this week    Projected next week        BE          3 round ave             5 Round ave   

Hall               F/M      413K                     409K                        138                 68                          75           

Kerridge        F/M      417K                     430K                          56                100                         90         


I know who I'd keep.

I just think Hall has more upside as a M9/F7 player you can loophole. Carlton has had a super easy run, so who is to say Kerridge's good scoring will continue against the tougher sides.

but kerridge is up and down so he is the far better loophole. Hall hasnt gone 100+ since round 4.

Kerridge has 3 times.

he has also gone 105 on north in a big loss, and 107 on sydney.

Hey H

If Carlton play 3 of the next 5 rounds AFTER GC (with one being almost the same time) aren't we better off with the earlier player for loophole purposes?

The later the player, the fewer options of a non playing component of loopholing remain.

I still agree that Hall should go before Kerridge looking at the stats and fully expect an 'I told you so' but if loopholing is a reason, think again?

Holz

#35
Quote from: tor01doc on June 06, 2016, 04:27:29 PM
Quote from: Holz on June 06, 2016, 04:08:52 PM
Quote from: MontyJnr on June 06, 2016, 04:05:32 PM
Quote from: tor01doc on June 06, 2016, 04:02:56 PM
Quote from: MontyJnr on June 06, 2016, 03:54:55 PM
I would still get rid of Kerridge before Hall. Everyone forgets that Kerridge put up a 60 against Geelong just 2 weeks ago, probably because they forgive him for being a 'rookie' pick.

Player         DPP       Price this week    Projected next week        BE          3 round ave             5 Round ave   

Hall               F/M      413K                     409K                        138                 68                          75           

Kerridge        F/M      417K                     430K                          56                100                         90         


I know who I'd keep.

I just think Hall has more upside as a M9/F7 player you can loophole. Carlton has had a super easy run, so who is to say Kerridge's good scoring will continue against the tougher sides.

but kerridge is up and down so he is the far better loophole. Hall hasnt gone 100+ since round 4.

Kerridge has 3 times.

he has also gone 105 on north in a big loss, and 107 on sydney.

Hey H

If Carlton play 3 of the next 5 rounds AFTER GC (with one being almost the same time) aren't we better off with the earlier player for loophole purposes?

The later the player, the fewer options of a non playing component of loopholing remain.

I still agree that Hall should go before Kerridge looking at the stats and fully expect an 'I told you so' but if loopholing is a reason, think again?

yes we are better of with the earlier player and to be honest i didnt look when they played.

My comment was in regards to kerridge being up and down. before the injury hall went 90 76 95 84 for a F7 loophole those are terrible numbers as its not good enough to say yep ill drop buddy or whatever for him and its not bad enough to say ok well that failed.

86 106 65 78 115 62 82 67 105 68 126 those are great loophole numbers. As the 106 115 105 126 you take every day of the week. 65 62 68 78 82 you just put in the bin and then you think about 86.

basically i want my guy going 85 or under or 105+

Also im not sure how many people will have hall or kerridge at f7 at this stage im thinking its probably more likely round 14 onwards at best. Im very strong as i trade hard and i still have kerridge at f7. my numbers are comparing kerridge to a premo not a rookie so if covering a rookie i can see hall being good but covering a premo its got to be kerridge.

and in regards to the "I told you so" im too classy for that :P


AaronKirk

I don't want to feed Holz' ego too much but he may be right and I may be wrong about Hall being a keeper....  :-X

I am holding for now but conceivably he could become my F7/M9 in a couple of week or I may punt him

desafinado


Hall is projected to drop down to $413K this week.
So, i gave him the flick. Traded him out for Jansen.
Then traded out J.Smith for Neale.

Judd Magic

Quote from: Bully on June 06, 2016, 12:22:17 PM
Quote from: Holz on June 06, 2016, 11:15:18 AM
I reckon he has to go,

wasnt putting up premo numbers before the injury and now he is really below par. Best i can see is he comes back to full health and puts up 85-90.

only thing is, its almost too late, he is dropped 100k and not worth much more then some of the best rookies.

I would trade him out of kerridge adams though.

This is the week to ditch him, can still make hay with so many other blue ribbon forwards having dipped in price.

Hall + 80k = Dahlhaus,
Hall + 60k = Joey
Hall + 100k = Lids

These numbers aren't too dissimilar to a few weeks back when Hall was fully priced. Leave it any longer and Hall goes sub 400k and becomes very hard to shift.

Zac Merretts a good option too at $509,800.

I have traded Hall > Z.Merrett this week.

Kerridge will be traded to Dahlhaus next week as Kerridge has the round 13 bye.


King_Robbo

I'm leaning towards holding for the moment.

I think we all saw his scoring potential at the start of the year and I can only see GC getting better with the top end talent they have to come back into their best 22.

He's defiantly a bit of a downhill skier however that suits their draw.
After they play the Hawks in Rd 14 they have Stk (H) Brisbane (H) Bulldogs (A)* Freo (H) Melb (A) GWS (H) Ess (A) Collingwood (A) Port (H)

It's not a terribly scary draw as I see the only difficult opponents being Dogs and GWS. Stk, Ess, Bris, Freo, Melb, Ess and Collingwood are all pretty awful teams who won't play finals.. Could junk it up in a few of those games if he stays fit

*Away game against Dogs is in Darwin

Colty

Not appearing in 1 centre bounce last week is the nail in the coffin for me.

AaronKirk

Quote from: Colty on June 07, 2016, 05:21:03 PM
Not appearing in 1 centre bounce last week is the nail in the coffin for me.

I wouldn't read too much into last weeks game. It was pissing down here on the Gold Coast and he is an outside mid. He wasn't suited to the conditions which was why he spent less time in the mids.

It is hard to justify keeping him but I am not sideways trading him. Would prefer to keep as an F7/M9 type.

Holz

Quote from: AaronKirk on June 06, 2016, 05:17:24 PM
I don't want to feed Holz' ego too much but he may be right and I may be wrong about Hall being a keeper....  :-X

I am holding for now but conceivably he could become my F7/M9 in a couple of week or I may punt him

you get some right you get some wrong. I was wrong on Lonergan seeds and Crouch.

Signs where showing before the injury that he was not a super premo. But the decision to trade him out was line ball and I totally understand why people didnt listen and trade him out then.

however the guy is now injured, having a guy who is just below the premo level you want and injured is a must trade in my opinion. If your sticking him on the bench trade him out. The best case is looking like he comes back after the byes and goes 85-95 from then on out fully healthy. If your thinking 100+ is possible i think your being unreasonable.


Merett is 80k more and likely to go 100-105
Buddy is 70k more and likely to go 100
Dahl is 90k more and likely to go 105-107

just seems smart to make the move from best case 85-95 up to a 100+ guy given the downside is huge.

trading Hall to Merett Buddy Dahl is not a sideways trade it is an upgrade.

trading Hall to say Kerridge, Betts, Walters, Lynch is a sideways trade.



RaisyDaisy

I started with him, and I am happy with what he gave me, but now I would like to trade him out but just don't have that luxury so he stays for now, and I will loophole him where possible

Sucks for those who brought him in 3-4 weeks into the season though

If I can get through the byes and still have 4-6 trades left, then I will dump him


Peter