LaHug's Captains 2016 - Round 11

[LaHug]

I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
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My top 3 averaged 132 between them last week - I have none of them in my AF team. Hopefully, your teams were a bit better and you took my advice! For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. If I have the time (and they're relevant), I'll get to any requests you have too!

The facts & thoughts:

Goldstein
Last 3: 99, 138, 109 (115 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 94, 71, 133 (99 avg)
Last 3 at Hobart: 149, 92, 106 (116 avg)

If it weren't for the knee, he'd be in strong consideration this week. 99 last week without even playing out the game, great form in general, and a delicious 149 last time he was in Hobart. Friday night in Tassie might not be the best conditions for scoring though and his knee troubles me. Prediction - 110

Cotchin
Last 3: 120, 127, 57 (101 avg)
Last 3 against North: 35, 97, 81 (71 avg)
Last 3 at Hobart: 81 (81 avg)

Last week, I told you he was back and a legitimate option. This week, I stand by my word. North were a tough team to score against but the Swans showed that good midfielders can rack it up. Form trumps here but I am wary of Tassie winds at night affecting scoring. Prediction - 115

D. Martin
Last 3: 123, 107, 123 (118 avg)
Last 3 against North: 62, 111, 101 (91 avg)
Last 3 at Hobart: 101 (101 avg)

BOG last week against the Bombers and in great form. If you don't have Dusty yet, it's almost getting too late. Pretty good history against the Roos barring last year's final and good in their one matchup in Tassie. Prediction - 120

Lewis
Last 3: 140, 73, 107 (107 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 144, 111, 81 (112 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 73, 117, 59 (83 avg)

It's gotta be tempting this week. Coming off a big 140 in his 250th last week, Lewis is flying high and comes up against a Demons outfit who are out of form and let him score 144 last year. His inconsistency this year makes it too risky but worth a look if you need a POD. Prediction - 110

Gawn
Last 3: 142, 47, 59 (83 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 111 (111 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 47, 59, 142 (83 avg)

Big Max has only played the Hawks once for a handy 111. I could say that the Hawks restrict opposition rucks by pointing out Stef Martin's 44 or I could say they let them score freely using Tippet's 129 from just one week earlier. Really, the Hawks will just let opposition rucks score to their form and that means it's up to Max. Last week would mean a resounding yes but the weeks prior say otherwise. Too risky but could be big. Prediction - 110

Gibbs
Last 3: 137, 106, 133 (125 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 103, 67, 84 (85 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 137, 106, 133 (125 avg)

Over the last 6 weeks, Gibbs has averaged 125. I know this off the top of my head because it was 6 weeks ago I traded him to Selwood (yep, worst trade of the year contender). His form speaks for itself but the icing on the cake has to be that the Lions gave up a 140 to Lewis last week playing a very similar role to what Gibbs plays and are by far one of the easiest teams to score against. Prediction - 135

Dangerfield
Last 3: 122, 107, 129 (119 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 75, 110, 60 (82 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 113, 129, 107 (116 avg)

The Giants continued being stingy on the scoring front, even in their loss, which doesn't bode particularly well for Danger. He was tagged by Coniglio against them in round 2 this year but my gut tells me that they tag Selwood instead this week, as its proven effective in recent weeks. His form is enough for me to give him a pass mark, particularly at Kardinia where he's been terrific. Prediction - 115

Selwood
Last 3: 86, 70, 82 (79 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 69, 106, 140 (105 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 103, 126, 114 (114 avg)

Getting tagged and getting beaten by it. I expect the Giants to use Coniglio against him this week instead of sending the tag to Danger, which will continue Selwood's bad form. Prediction - 80

Ward
Last 3: 64, 139, 91 (98 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 74, 76, 111 (87 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 104, 64 (84 avg)

Not with those numbers coming off a 64. Prediction - 85

Coniglio
Last 3: 93, 136, 101 (110 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 67, 97, 48 (71 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 115 (115 avg)

I don't like that he only scored 67 in round 2 playing a tagging role as he'll almost certainly play one again this week. That said, he's tagged Mitchell and Mundy in recent weeks for returns of 119 and 129, showing that his recent form is good enough for him to shut down an opponent and get 30+ disposals of his own. Prediction - 110

Ablett
Last 3: 120, 82, 82 (95 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 146, 84, 152 (127 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 82, 91, 124 (99 avg)

GAJ is back! Well, a one game sample size says he is... What I like here is that he's smashed Sydney in the past. We should be expecting a big score from GAJ... unless... Tom Mitchell could tag! The two have never actually played against each other but Mitchell did a great job tagging the other Mitchell a couple of weeks ago. Be wary but he'll be big if tag-free. Also look out for bad weather. Prediction - 115

T. Mitchell
Last 3: 163, 87, 61 (104 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 163, 131 (147 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 131 (131 avg)

As I said above, he might tag GAJ. If he does, we're looking at that 87 from tagging Sam Mitchell and sweating. If he doesn't, we're looking at the 163 from last week, the 147 average in his two games vs. the Suns, and we're remembering that the Suns are one of the easiest teams in the comp to score against. Prediction - 125

Hannebery
Last 3: 125, 99, 120 (115 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 117, 133, 106 (119 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 133, 106, 90 (110 avg)

The weather has me a little worried but, otherwise, Hanners is close to a lock. He loves racking it up, he's in good form, and the Suns are super leaky. Even if the weather is shocking, he should get enough of it with contested possessions and tackles. Prediction - 125

J.P. Kennedy
Last 3: 129, 88, 115 (111 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 119, 60, 103 (94 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 60, 103, 99 (87 avg)

Way too inconsistent for me but could be another to take advantage of the Suns being crap. Prediction - 110

Parker
Last 3: 59, 103, 69 (77 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 102, 166, 98 (122 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 102, 98, 47 (82 avg)

If Parker doesn't bounce back this week, he's on the chopping block. Suprisingly mediocre form against the Suns barring that big 166 but the 166 is what his owners will be hoping for. Prediction - 105

Franklin
Last 3: 105, 92, 89 (95 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 71, 77, 56 (68 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 77, 56 (67 avg)

Check the weather forecast. If it's dry, he kicks 8 and scores 140+. If it's as wet as predicted, stay away. Prediction - 80

Neale
Last 3: 104, 149, 108 (120 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 131, 73, 42 (82 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 149, 99, 130 (126 avg)

Speaking of teams easy to score against... The Bombers are super leaky and gave up a nice pair of 120+ scores to Dusty and Cotch last week. Neale is in good form, had a 131 against the Bombers last year, and goes big at Subi. Prediction - 135

Zaharakis
Last 3: 103, 104, 57 (88 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 45, 76, 76 (66 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 45, 76, 96 (72 avg)

Freo are similarly leaky but Zaka doesn't have the record or form to warrant a pick. Prediction - 105

Merrett
Last 3: 115, 90, 143 (116 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 86 (86 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 137, 86 (112 avg)

Nor does Merrett... but form is better. Prediction - 115

Pendlebury
Last 3: 124, 114, 106 (115 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 112, 95, 95 (101 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 124, 114, 118 (119 avg)

Pendles is in great form and is loving it at the MCG. He'll likely need to lift with so many injuries in the Pies team and his form against Port is decent enough. Prediction - 115

Sidebottom
Last 3: 107, 131, 97 (112 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 107, 142, 107 (119 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 107, 131, 109 (116 avg)

Sidebum is a bit of a dip in recent average compared to Pendles but is better against the Power. Should be about as good. Prediction - 115

Treloar
Last 3: 119, 116, 131 (122 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 93, 101, 75 (90 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 119, 116, 96 (110 avg)

Probably in the best form of the Pies trio and Port are giving up almost 3 tons a game, meaning all three could go well enough. Form against Port isn't as good as the others. Prediction - 115

Boyd
Last 3: 97, 113, 101 (104 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 113, 118, 112 (114 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 101, 118, 108 (109 avg)

Last week was a disappointment but Boyd scores well against the Eagles too consistently to not look at him. This week, he's more of a safe option than a big scorer but if you need that locked in 110 then consider. Prediction - 115

Sloane
Last 3: 81, 106, 155 (114 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 130, 131, 117 (126 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 81, 155, 135 (124 avg)

I was expecting a good score from Sloane last week and was very surprised by an 81. I'm expecting possibly even more this week against the Saints, a team he's frequently scored well against, at a ground he's had recent big scores on, against a relatively leaky team. Prediction - 125

Steven
Last 3: 135, 138, 83 (119 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 98, 98, 82 (93 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 123, 106, 98 (109 avg)

Two weeks in a row I've expected big things from Jack and he's delivered. This week, I don't expect so much, as the Crows are a bit of a bogey team for him with no tons from his last four. Form might be enough to get him there but too risky. Prediction - 95

Riewoldt
Last 3: 136, 112, 101 (116 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 26, 48, 110 (61 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 55, 26, 48 (43 avg)

The 26 was from Roo being knocked out in the first quarter but the 48 is just a shocking game. Prior to this, Riewoldt's been very up and down against the Crows, with 2011 a great example scoring 43 and 134 in two match ups. Basically, his form says he'll have an up game this time but there are less risky options. Prediction - 110

Montagna
Last 3: 123, 101, 129 (118 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 89, 65, 129 (94 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 112, 90, 89 (97 avg)

Joey's form is good enough to have a look but Adelaide aren't leaky enough for him to be a good option. Prediction - 100

LAHUG'S ROUGHIE OF THE WEEK!

Montagna was just one of many Saints to make me look smart last weekend. I'm back in form with my roughies. In this segment, I'll talk about someone that, partly because of stats and mostly because of gut feeling, I think will go huge this week. It'll usually be somebody that you wouldn't usually give the C to but, if you have him and are feeling brave, might be worth a look.

Rockliff
Last 3: 33, 132, 88 (84 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 143, 95, 153 (130 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 88, 125, 95 (103 avg)

Let's do this. Rocky is playing this week and has a great record against the Blues. Ablett managed a 120 in his return last week, so there's precedent to insanity. He scored 132 in his last healthy game, against the Swans in round 6. If you have a trade to spare, and are slightly insane, do it! Gutsy Prediction - 145

LAHUG'S POTATO FORECAST!

Having traded him in for Gibbs a while back, me being spot on about Selwood last week really hurts... That said, I'm in form with my potatoes so watch out! Basically, I'll highlight a premium that is probably in plenty of teams but is both down on form and has some terrible history against this week's opponent. Get ready for a shocker of a score!

S. Mitchell
Last 3: 88, 53, 74 (72 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 110, 93, 66 (90 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 53, 101, 146 (100 avg)

It may have taken 14 odd years but teams have finally figured out that tagging Mitchell might just be a good way to beat the Hawks. This spells disaster for Mitchell owners and his recent form shows how mad it can be. Melbourne haven't been tagging but neither had Brisbane or Sydney before sending Robinson and Tom Mitchell onto him. It wouldn't surprise me if Melbourne sent Bernie Vince or similar to follow Mitchell all day and shut him down yet again. Spudiction - 70

The verdict:
1.   Gibbs (135)

2.   Neale (135)
3.   Hannebery (125)
4.   T. Mitchell (125)
5.   Sloane (125)

Requests:



I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
Please follow this link: https://my-own-way-2016.everydayhero.com/au/william-huggett

[Bill Manspeaker]

great work again Huggy! your prediction on Steven last week was spot on, happy I went with him! gonna go with you again and put the C on Gibbsy!

might also trade Rocky back in looking at that (for a 3rd time) (probably don't have the balls though)

[Mat0369]

Be careful with Gibbs this week guys, read my last post in the Blues thread as to why. I'm expecting our midfield to be a little off.

[LaHug]

Be careful with Gibbs this week guys, read my last post in the Blues thread as to why. I'm expecting our midfield to be a little off.

It's a good point with the guys that don't usually spend so much time in the mids but doesn't Gibbs usually spend most of the game there anyway?

[HappyDEZ]

I voted Danger but not so sure now looking at the 75 with the Conigs tag from earlier in the year. May still stick with Danger but may move the C to Gibbs. Now I think of it I had Danger C that day. Might go the once bitten approach. Fire up man bun!

[Chelskiman]

I went Neale last week and he gave me 104, but thinking he could go huge against the Bombers.

[Mat0369]

Be careful with Gibbs this week guys, read my last post in the Blues thread as to why. I'm expecting our midfield to be a little off.

It's a good point with the guys that don't usually spend so much time in the mids but doesn't Gibbs usually spend most of the game there anyway?

He does, but he spent longer on the ground and had to run harder then he does most weeks. The proof was in the puking post game. When it is coming from Judd who was one of the best and hardest running mids to have ever played it got me thinking that the whole unit could be pretty sluggish this week

[Barra13]

Dahlhaus and Wines please?

[nrich102]

Heath Shaw if you have a minute mate :)

[jvalles69]

Tommy "Gun" Mitchell to explode!

[HappyDEZ]

With Murphy out what chance Mitch goes to Gibbs?

[Chelskiman]

Tommy "Gun" Mitchell to explode!

It's worked for me once and backfired on me once.  I'd love to because we know what he can do, but the fact he's being used as a tagger every now and then scares me.  I'd rather get a solid 110-115 from my captain than risk either a 160 or an 80 from Titch, and that's why I'm going Neale for a second week in a row.

[Dave085]

Tommy "Gun" Mitchell to explode!

It's worked for me once and backfired on me once.  I'd love to because we know what he can do, but the fact he's being used as a tagger every now and then scares me.  I'd rather get a solid 110-115 from my captain than risk either a 160 or an 80 from Titch, and that's why I'm going Neale for a second week in a row.

Is there really any point in him tagging against GC though? And if he does, youd imagine his tackle count would be high given the likely high stoppages with the wet weather.

[Chelskiman]

Tommy "Gun" Mitchell to explode!

It's worked for me once and backfired on me once.  I'd love to because we know what he can do, but the fact he's being used as a tagger every now and then scares me.  I'd rather get a solid 110-115 from my captain than risk either a 160 or an 80 from Titch, and that's why I'm going Neale for a second week in a row.

Is there really any point in him tagging against GC though? And if he does, youd imagine his tackle count would be high given the likely high stoppages with the wet weather.

I wouldn't personally use him as a tagger, but I'm not the coach of Sydney.  Who knows what Longmire will do as he's screwed around with Titch in the past.  I think he'll do well, I have him myself, but there's always that unknown with him which makes it a ballsy move every time you put the C on him.

I wish anyone who does captain him all the luck though!

[jvalles69]

Tommy "Gun" Mitchell to explode!

It's worked for me once and backfired on me once.  I'd love to because we know what he can do, but the fact he's being used as a tagger every now and then scares me.  I'd rather get a solid 110-115 from my captain than risk either a 160 or an 80 from Titch, and that's why I'm going Neale for a second week in a row.

Is there really any point in him tagging against GC though? And if he does, youd imagine his tackle count would be high given the likely high stoppages with the wet weather.

I wouldn't personally use him as a tagger, but I'm not the coach of Sydney.  Who knows what Longmire will do as he's screwed around with Titch in the past.  I think he'll do well, I have him myself, but there's always that unknown with him which makes it a ballsy move every time you put the C on him.

I wish anyone who does captain him all the luck though!

Surely you can't make him tag in his 50th game, no way!