LaHug's Captains 2016 - Round 10

[LaHug]

I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
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Having been bedridden with "the plague" for a week now, I can't even remember what happened this weekend. Hopefully what follows is coherent. For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. If I have the time (and they're relevant), I'll get to any requests you have too!

The facts & thoughts:

J.P. Kennedy
Last 3: 88, 115, 91 (98 avg)
Last 3 against North: 130, 92, 103 (108 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 115, 99, 118 (111 avg)

North are the third hardest team to score against this year. Some of those numbers look tempting but his form and North are enough for me to pass. Prediction - 95

Hannebery
Last 3: 99, 120, 102 (107 avg)
Last 3 against North: 65, 93, 72 (77 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 102, 102, 100 (101 avg)

Decent form but there's more than enough to be worried about this week. He's no good against North and they're really hard to score against. But wait! There's no Ben Jacobs to tag him. Not all hope is lost! Still way too risky. Prediction - 100

Parker
Last 3: 103, 69, 91 (88 avg)
Last 3 against North: 120, 133, 94 (116 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 91, 121, 135 (116 avg)

Quite good against North and could continue that way. Of course, I said that about Bryce Gibbs last week with much better form to his name but North's stinginess prevailed. Prediction - 100

T. Mitchell
Last 3: 87, 61, 130 (93 avg)
Last 3 against North: 67, 100, 67 (78 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 130, 92, 111 (111 avg)

I was right to say he'd be poor last week but it was only right in a fantasy sense; his tag on Sam Mitchell was superb! Nothing good to see here against North though, which will have owners really sweating. Prediction - 80

Goldstein
Last 3: 138, 109, 113 (120 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 87, 122, 72 (94 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 80, 33, 95 (69 avg)

Goldy's on fire right now but Tippett's no pushover in the ruck. Not enough to support his claim this week. Prediction - 110

Rockliff
Last 3: 33, 132, 88 (84 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 159, 96, 63 (106 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 132, 24, 149 (102 avg)

Just quickly... he could play this week, time off is often the opposite of detrimental to his scoring, and he's playing the Hawks who he scored 159 on last year. Plus, he loves the Gabba! You'd be brave though. Prediction - 115

Zorko
Last 3: 91, 122, 110 (108 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 89, 93, 57 (80 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 122, 148, 109 (126 avg)

I love Zorko at the Gabba but I don't like his history against the Hawks. This year is a breakout year for him though and he's only missed the ton twice. Should be good at home. Prediction - 115

S. Mitchell
Last 3: 53, 74, 66 (64 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 68, 100, 113 (94 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 127, 70, 71 (89 avg)

I think it's time to worry about Mitchell. He's looked tired and was easily controlled by the other Mitchell last week. If there were a market for it (is there? if there is, you have to tell me!), I'd bet big bucks on him being rested this week. If he plays, there's not much going for him in the numbers anyway. Prediction - 90

Lewis
Last 3: 73, 107, 117 (99 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 106, 111, 61 (93 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 59, 94, 63 (72 avg)

Brisbane are the 4th easiest team to score against yet Lewis's numbers are too unconvincing for me. Prediction - 100

Viney
Last 3: 84, 135, 99 (106 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 22, 76, 78 (59 avg)
Last 3 at Alice Springs: 22, 78 (50 avg)

Last week was a let down and I don't know what to expect from him in Alice Springs this week. Just don't. Prediction - 90

Gray
Last 3: 111, 58, 64 (78 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 110, 100, 91 (100 avg)
Last 3 at Alice Springs: 110, 91 (101 avg)

He's back and he's been good in the previous two encounters up north. Likes playing against Melbourne and, in case you've been living under a rock, is forward eligible in Fantasy! Still, much better options available. Prediction - 110

Steven
Last 3: 138, 83, 58 (93 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 107, 148, 93 (116 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 138, 58, 113 (103 avg)

When he plays a team he likes to play, Jack Steven bounces straight back. Essendon got him going and now Freo could be even better. They're the 2nd leakiest team in the comp, Steven has slaughtered them before, and he knows how to score big at Etihad. Prediction - 130

Riewoldt
Last 3: 112, 101, 144 (119 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 89, 164, 120 (124 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 112, 144, 126 (127 avg)

112 was disappointing last week... that's how good Roo can be. This week, he's right back up there near the top of my list. Killing it at Etihad and Freo are super leaky. Plus, his history against them is really really good. Prediction - 125

Barlow
Last 3: 59, 124, 138 (107 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 74, 97, 56 (76 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 75, 84, 100 (86 avg)

We wanted him back last week to score well against the Tiges! Now he's highly probable to make his return and it's going to be for a shocker against a team he hates playing. Prediction - 80

Merrett
Last 3: 90, 143, 117 (117 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 80, 59, 98 (79 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 98, 66, 127 (97 avg)

Those numbers are nowhere near good enough for me to consider hopping on the Merrett rollercoaster this week. Too unpredictable but history says no. Prediction - 90

D. Martin
Last 3: 107, 123, 99 (110 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 66, 107, 106 (93 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 123, 99, 114 (112 avg)

Essendon are giving up some very solid tons (see Steven and Ross last week, or Gibson the week before) and Dusty's form is on the rise. History doesn't have enough for me to go all in but I'm watching with intrigue. Prediction - 110

Cotchin
Last 3: 127, 57, 110 (98 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 108, 113, 86 (102 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 57, 110, 107 (91 avg)

It's time to realise that Cotchin's ball-winning ability makes him a legitimate premium midfielder (when he's not breaking his face). My pick for the medal this week, Cotch will continue his recent good form against the Bombers and probably rack up a fair few while he's at it. Prediction - 115

Sloane
Last 3: 106, 155, 74 (112 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 143, 108, 92 (114 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 155, 135, 112 (134 avg)

GWS are the stingiest team in the comp, the only team giving up fewer than 2 tons per game and giving up the lowest total points. But look at thos numbers! Sloane loves Adelaide Oval smashed the Giants just last year. I'm backing Rory to stand up. Prediction - 125

Ward
Last 3: 139, 91, 113 (114 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 106, 67, 44 (72 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 96, 44 (70 avg)

Adelaide aren't giving up too many tons themselves (5th fewest) and their form at home is pretty good. Ward doesn't have enough going for him this week to go against that. Prediction - 105

Coniglio
Last 3: 136, 101, 129 (122 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 58, 91, 115 (88 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 115 (115 avg)

Form is really good for Coniglio in what has been a breakout year. I don't like his history against the Crows but I quietly think that won't matter much. Prediction - 115

Shaw
Last 3: 176, 132, 109 (139 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 61, 92, 79 (77 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 81 (81 avg)

HOW GOOD WAS HEATH SHAW LAST WEEK?! That said, Heater's played true to his historic form on a couple of occasions this year for 9th straight score under 100 against Port, and for a huge 176 just last week. The risk of him following his history, five straight flops against the Crows, is too much of a gamble. With all of that said, I still think he tons. Prediction - 100

Gibbs
Last 3: 106, 133, 136 (125 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 37, 91, 139 (89 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 106, 133, 84 (108 avg)

Why do you taunt me, Bryce? Even against North, who are one of the hardest teams to score against, he manages a ton. Unfortunately for him, North are only 3rd hardest while Cats are 2nd. Still, form says a ton but I say only just. Prediction - 100

Dangerfield
Last 3: 107, 129, 113 (116 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 108, 74, 71 (84 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 118, 110, 114 (114 avg)

Form and history says good but not great. He is very handy at Etihad though, making him a safe pick despite Carlton giving up the third fewest tons per game. Prediction - 115

Pendlebury
Last 3: 114, 106, 118 (113 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 113, 114, 133 (120 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 114, 118, 127 (120 avg)

I think there was a Giants player with great numbers going up against the Bulldogs last week. How'd he go again? Pendlebury's numbers make him easily the safest option for captain this week but it's probably not the highest ceiling. Prediction - 120

Sidebottom
Last 3: 131, 97, 109 (112 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 130, 87, 114 (110 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 131, 109, 144 (128 avg)

This guy is annoying to predict but I can tell you he gets tons at the MCG. He'll get another here and it should be solid. Prediction - 110

Treloar
Last 3: 116, 131, 96 (114 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 87, 98, 98 (94 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 116, 96, 129 (114 avg)

Might be the week to pass on Treloar with his history against the Dogs not great and their stinginess ranking them 4th worst to score against. Prediction - 95

Boyd
Last 3: 113, 101, 118 (111 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 129, 112, 94 (112 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 113, 115, 109 (112 avg)

As someone with Boyd in my team, I'm very glad he'll be back for this week. Has a great record against the Pies. Prediction - 115

Hunter
Last 3: 92, 113, 71 (92 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 122 (122 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 113, 63, 45 (74 avg)

Not enough to back him this week but I like his chances to score you a ton. Prediction - 105

Priddis
Last 3: 105, 105, 89 (100 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 106, 155, 103 (121 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 105, 84, 110 (100 avg)

The Suns give up the most points in the competition and give up almost 5 tons per game in the process. If you are a rare Priddis owner, grab a pen and circle that 155 because it could come again this week. Prediction - 120

Ablett
Last 3: 82, 82, 90 (85 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 118, 89, 102 (103 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 97, 118, 80 (98 avg)

Likely to be back this week, has scored well against the Eagles in the past, and you'd be an idiot to pick him. Prediction - 90

LAHUG'S ROUGHIE OF THE WEEK!

Adams let me down last week but have I got a juicy one for you this time around. In this segment, I'll talk about someone that, partly because of stats and mostly because of gut feeling, I think will go huge this week. It'll usually be somebody that you wouldn't usually give the C to but, if you have him and are feeling brave, might be worth a look.

Montagna
Last 3: 101, 129, 109 (113 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 155, 91, 189 (145 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 101, 109, 76 (95 avg)

Fremantle give up more points than anyone other than Gold Coast. Montagna is in pretty solid form. But, la crème de la crème, Montagna averages a stupidly good 145 in his last three against the Dockers (and that's with a 91 dragging things down). If you have balls of steel, do it. Just do it! Gutsy Prediction - 160

LAHUG'S POTATO FORECAST!

1/2 last week with Parker managing a ton but Tommy Mitchell flopping as predicted (although only in fantasy terms). Basically, I'll highlight a premium that is probably in plenty of teams but is both down on form and has some terrible history against this week's opponent. Get ready for a shocker of a score!

Selwood
Last 3: 70, 82, 103 (85 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 83, 104, 79 (89 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 88, 94, 118 (100 avg)

An interesting one this week as the numbers aren't quite as bad as previous spuds. My concerns are simple. The Blues are giving up just over two tons per game. Danger gets one, for sure, but the other? Why not an in-form Bartel or Duncan backing up his efforts or even another Cam Guthrie game? His history against Carlton and at Etihad mean a score under 100 is very likely. Spudiction - 80

The verdict:
1.   Steven (130)

2.   Riewoldt (125)
3.   Pendlebury (120)
4.   Sloane (125)
5.   Priddis (120)

Requests:

Neale   - Requested by LF
Last 3: 149, 108, 99 (119 avg)   
Last 3 against St Kilda: 112, 56, 62 (77 avg)   
Last 3 at Etihad: 132, 106, 97 (112 avg)   

My most dreaded but regular request. I just can't predict this guy. He is capable, with his engine and determination, of scoring 130 every single week. He's also capable of dropping below 100 for no reason. That said, he's only dropped below 100 three times this year: a 99, a 98, and a 79. Against the Saints, there's last year's 112 to look at and he can score at Etihad. Saints are the 5th easiest team to score against which will help too. Should be good. Prediction - 115

Bontempelli   - Requested by meow meow
Last 3: 106, 105, 122 (111 avg)   
Last 3 against Collingwood: 97, 92,  (95 avg)   
Last 3 at MCG: 105, 45, 133 (94 avg)   

I must confess, I almost put him in this week's write up after seeing 3 tons in a row but the 6 straight under 100 to start the season made me decide otherwise. He's in form, and Collingwood are one of his best teams to play, but you'd still be mad to pick him. That said, ton 4 is on its way. Prediction - 105



I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
Please follow this link: https://my-own-way-2016.everydayhero.com/au/william-huggett

[LF]

Lachie Neale please

[GoLions]

Awesome stuff Huggy! Thinking about Steven, buttt....

Lachie Neale please

:)

[Bill Manspeaker]

Jacky boy it is!  8) cheers Huggy!

[LaHug]

Neale   - Requested by LF
Last 3: 149, 108, 99 (119 avg)   
Last 3 against St Kilda: 112, 56, 62 (77 avg)   
Last 3 at Etihad: 132, 106, 97 (112 avg)   

My most dreaded but regular request. I just can't predict this guy. He is capable, with his engine and determination, of scoring 130 every single week. He's also capable of dropping below 100 for no reason. That said, he's only dropped below 100 three times this year: a 99, a 98, and a 79. Against the Saints, there's last year's 112 to look at and he can score at Etihad. Saints are the 5th easiest team to score against which will help too. Should be good. Prediction - 115



I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
Please follow this link: https://my-own-way-2016.everydayhero.com/au/william-huggett

[LF]

Thanks Huggy
May as well chuck him in every week because I will be asking haha

[WhatMate]

Steven in, Steven captain.. well atleast till teams come out..

[RoughRed]

Sidebottom please  ::)

[LF]

Sidebottom please  ::)

He is already up there

[meow meow]

Bont?

[LaHug]

Bontempelli   - Requested by meow meow
Last 3: 106, 105, 122 (111 avg)   
Last 3 against Collingwood: 97, 92,  (95 avg)   
Last 3 at MCG: 105, 45, 133 (94 avg)   

I must confess, I almost put him in this week's write up after seeing 3 tons in a row but the 6 straight under 100 to start the season made me decide otherwise. He's in form, and Collingwood are one of his best teams to play, but you'd still be mad to pick him. That said, ton 4 is on its way. Prediction - 105



I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
Please follow this link: https://my-own-way-2016.everydayhero.com/au/william-huggett

[RoughRed]

Sidebottom please  ::)

He is already up there

Oops ... reading with my wine goggles :)
Thanks

[Chelskiman]

I'm thinking Neale, but tempted by Steven too.

[pommyadam]

ruckmen vs Port (with the exception of Hampson) average 120 since Lobbe left the side #NoLongerASmoky #LockItIn
and NRoo averages 125.6 over his last 7 games #LockHimIn
and then Buddy plays GC in rd11 #LeakyGC #BuddyToBreakHis204Score