LaHug's Captains 2016 - Round 8

[LaHug]

I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
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A bit of a delay this week but I wouldn't leave you guys hanging forever! For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. If I have the time (and they're relevant), I'll get to any requests you have too!

The facts & thoughts:

Sloane
Last 3: 74, 135, 96 (102 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 100, 109, 92 (100 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 135, 112, 67 (105 avg)

You could certainly do a lot worse than pick Sloane this week. He disappointed last week but, back in Adelaide, he'll be great. Add his decent form against Geelong and you've got a ton. Prediction - 110

Dangerfield
Last 3: 113, 129, 115 (119 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: N/A
Last 3 at AO: 115, 91, 95 (100 avg)

I'd love to be able to put this guy as this week's Roughie but he's obviously too good for that. It's hard to predict how he'll go against his old club but, based on form alone, you'd assume the answer is a big score. Prediction - 120

Selwood
Last 3: 103, 126, 134 (121 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 140, 132, 133 (135 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 134, 66, 73 (91 avg)

Form: 121 over the last three. Opponent: 135 over the last three. Ground: Maybe not as good as the first two but 134 in his most recent is very positive. Prediction - 135

Zaharakis
Last 3: 122, 98, 82 (101 avg)
Last 3 against North: 87, 71, 100 (86 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 92, 58, 97 (82 avg)

I'm confused by the Bombers guys. They finally look like they can't score and are tiring, then they do this. Against North, however, who kept most of the Crows quiet last week, we might not get as much. Prediction - 95

S. Mitchell
Last 3: 66, 101, 130 (99 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 117, 142, 105 (121 avg)
Last 3 at Launceston: 130, 142, 108 (127 avg)

Is Sam Mitchell injured? If yes, you can't go there... If no, we have stupidly good form against a stupidly bad team. Prediction - 125
Edit: Changed MCG to Launceston. Doesn't change anything. Will still be really good.

Lewis
Last 3: 117, 58, 59 (78 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 72, 108, 156 (112 avg)
Last 3 at Launceston: 111, 106, 108 (108 avg)

I think last week was a combination of Richmond folding and no Mitchell. I expect Freo to fold similarly but Mitchell's back. Prediction - 110
Edit: Changed MCG to Launceston. Doesn't change much but earned him an extra 5 on the prediction.

Barlow

Edit: Barlow not even named so removed him.

Ward
Last 3: 113, 110, 97 (107 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 138, 122, 116 (125 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 110, 92, 92 (98 avg)

The Suns are absolutely battling which is so perfect for Ward. His record against them speaks for itself and, in what could be an ugly match, he'll surely go big. Prediction - 130

Coniglio
Last 3: 129, 119, 123 (124 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 96, 103, 97 (99 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 119, 50, 84 (84 avg)

With four straight tons (all good ones, too), Coniglio can no longer be ignored. Better yet, he's coming up against his best opponent for his career who suck right now. Prediction - 125

Shaw
Last 3: 109, 135, 131 (125 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 125, 74, 99 (99 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 135, 74, 119 (109 avg)

Stupidly good on form too and scored a 125 against the Suns last year. The Suns are leaking points and the only reason he's not in my top 5 is that I think the ball won't go into the back half enough. Prediction - 115

Ablett
Last 3: 82, 90, 91 (88 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 176, 122, 132 (143 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: N/A

That form against the Giants is why you don't trade him out this week! That form in general is why you don't make him C. In a probably drubbing, I can't see him coming close to those huge tons but he's due for a ton this week... otherwise, he's out. Prediction - 105

Beams
Last 3: 106 (106 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 83 (83 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 125, 107, 152 (128 avg)

Tempting. He loves the Gabba and I feel he'll get a lot of the ball to make up for Rocky's absence. Still, you shouldn't. Prediction - 110

S. Martin
Last 3: 129, 92, 92 (104 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 87, 123, 76 (95 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 92, 97, 152 (114 avg)

Finally got a ton last week and I back him to follow it up. Prediction - 110

Pendlebury
Last 3: 118, 85, 127 (110 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 104, 95, 119 (106 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 104, 95, 119 (106 avg)

I keep questioning him then deciding he'll probably ton anyway and, as you'd expect, he does. Form and record are good enough for me. Prediction - 110

Sidebottom
Last 3: 109, 96, 144 (116 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 88, 94, 115 (99 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 88, 115, 115 (106 avg)

I'd put Sidey as someone that'll score big in a win but not so much in a loss. At the start of the year, I'd have pencilled in this game as a win and, hence, big score. Now I'm not so sure... Prediction - 100

Treloar
Last 3: 96, 119, 129 (115 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 120, 115, 97 (111 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 115, 97, 57 (90 avg)

If you have to go a Pie for whatever reason, he's your man. Good recent form against the Lions. Prediction - 115

Hannebery
Last 3: 102, 136, 102 (113 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 96, 143, 76 (105 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 119, 74, 116 (103 avg)

Not feeling it this week because he's a bit too inconsistent against the Tigers. Ton for sure but maybe not huge. Prediction - 110

J.P. Kennedy
Last 3: 115, 91, 99 (102 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 114, 107, 55 (92 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 102, 136, 100 (113 avg)

Will love a contested ball contest against Cotchin-less Tigers and will relish in the fact that he'll setup his team by putting in work. Good record against the Tigers. Prediction - 115

T. Mitchell
Last 3: 130, 106, 92 (109 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 48, 138, 112 (99 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 95, 101, 104 (100 avg)

Last week was some evidence that Tommy Mitchell is a bit of a flat track bully. The Tigers are about as flat as you can get right now so expect another good one. Prediction - 120

Parker
Last 3: 91, 141, 114 (115 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 112, 116, 102 (110 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 114, 116, 120 (117 avg)

About 50 points shy of expectations last week. No way he doesn't do well this time though. Prediction - 115

Gibbs
Last 3: 136, 125, 110 (124 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 65, 113, 93 (90 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 136, 125, 127 (129 avg)

Gibbs has done really well in the three weeks since I've traded him out (you're welcome) but the common and unsustainable theme has been Carlton winning. This week, they could win again (I don't think they will... but they could) and then he'll be good again. However, Port seem to be doing just enough and that might mean slowing down. Prediction - 105

Gawn
Last 3: 138, 88, 142 (123 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 81, 64, 9 (51 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 142, 107, 61 (103 avg)

Rucks don't score tons against the Dogs. Just ask Jacobs and Goldstein, who are otherwise in form. Sorry Max but not this week. Prediction - 80

Hunter
Last 3: 71, 133, 95 (100 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 85, 63, 65 (71 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 63, 45, 19 (42 avg)

20 first half disposals and 4 second half disposals is how you blue ball a fantasy coach. No form against Melbourne to make me think he'll do well and I'm genuinely concerned about the Doggies on the much bigger MCG. Prediction - 85

Boyd
Last 3: 101, 118, 108 (109 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 96, 115, 125 (112 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 115, 109, 86 (103 avg)

Used to hate playing the Dees but now loves it. My pick for the Doggies top scorer this week and a legitimate option. Prediction - 115

Priddis
Last 3: 89, 84, 94 (89 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 129, 114, 101 (115 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 84, 110, 137 (110 avg)

If, for whatever reason, you have Priddis in your team right now, enjoy it. This week, he'll do what he always does against the Saints and score big. Back at home, the Eagles are a real team again too! Prediction - 110

Gaff
Last 3: 104, 74, 103 (94 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 125, 115, 88 (109 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 74, 108, 111 (98 avg)

Will probably join his mate Priddis in this one. Prediction - 110

Steven
Last 3: 58, 113, 100 (90 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 89, 166, 86 (114 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 89, 93, 78 (87 avg)

Jack just sucks against North so last week was always going to happen. This week's a bit more interesting, with a 166 drawing attention but all the other numbers looking really bad. Prediction - 90

Montagna
Last 3: 109, 76, 68 (84 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 113, 123, 104 (113 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 113, 104, 117 (111 avg)

Adores the Eagles and happily smashes them at their own ground. His current form worries me but he bounced back last week and will continue strong. Prediction - 110

Riewoldt
Last 3: 144, 126, 137 (136 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 68, 72, 84 (75 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 68, 84, 103 (85 avg)

I don't care what his form against his opponent is like. When you're playing the high-forward, get-the-ball-wherever-I-want, kick-goals-too role that Roo is playing right now, and averaging 136 over your last three (133 over the last four), you're a real option. That said, his record against West Coast is particularly bad so there are better options. Prediction - 120

LAHUG'S ROUGHIE OF THE WEEK!

Pretty sure Viney was set for 130 before injury so I'm counting it as a tick. In this segment, I'll talk about someone that, partly because of stats and mostly because of gut feeling, I think will go huge this week. It'll usually be somebody that you wouldn't usually give the C to but, if you have him and are feeling brave, might be worth a look.

Goldstein
Last 3: 113, 64, 102 (93 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 175, 70, 90 (112 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 113, 64, 96 (91 avg)

The following are the list of reasons you should not pick Goldstein: 1. No rucks have scored a ton against Essendon this year. 2. The much loved Gawn only scored 61 against them. 3. Two of Goldstein's last three against the Bombers were shockers. The following is why you should pick Goldstein: 1. The Roos will win by a lot. 2. Goldy will kick lots of goals when he rests forward. 3. 175. Gutsy prediction - 150

LAHUG'S POTATO FORECAST!

Priddis was always going to struggle so I'm not sure how much credit I should get for calling it... but I'll take as much as you'll give! Basically, I'll highlight a premium that is probably in plenty of teams but is both down on form and has some terrible history against this week's opponent. Get ready for a shocker of a score!

Merrett
Last 3: 117, 98, 66 (94 avg)
Last 3 against North: 81, 68, 81 (77 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 107, 118, 81 (102 avg)

After a dismal 66, Merrett worked his way to a 98 and then a solid 117. So why am I doubting him?? Gut feeling, mainly. That 66 came when Collingwood decided to try and won by 70-odd. North won't even need to try to win by 70+ but I'm backing them to put the foot down and win by 100. In that case, coupled with his poor form against the Roos, Merrett's gonna struggle. Spudiction - 60

The verdict:
1.   Selwood (135)

2.   Ward (130)
3.   S. Mitchell (125)
4.   Coniglio (125)
5.   Dangerfield (120)

Requests:

Can't do any this week. Sorry!



I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
Please follow this link: https://my-own-way-2016.everydayhero.com/au/william-huggett

[pommyadam]

I wish we could get that Barlow prediction #Dropped

the sensible prediction of me says to go with Selwood, but the allure of Shaw is TOO tempting

[HBTD22]

Hawks are playing Freo in Tassie mate.

Think I'll stick with Hanners this week.

[henry]

Was tossing up between danger, ward and treloar.

Reckon I'll go Ward, can't be much worse than rocky last week ::)

[LaHug]

Hawks are playing Freo in Tassie mate.

Think I'll stick with Hanners this week.

Yeah, noticed after I posted and left for a gig. Will hopefully be able to edit tomorrow.

[LaHug]

Fixed Hawks vs. Freo game

[Ricochet]

Nice work Huggy
Running with Parker in AF and Pendles in DT i think

[Koop]

Cheers Huggy, will go with Selwood in AF. However need a POD for RDT Eliminator so will back in Ward, lets see how that goes .  :-X

[WhatMate]

Someone else: Parker! CHeers again Lahug :)

[DBRiMatt]

Zach Merret mustve read this and put his game face on!

143 including 8 tackles and 18 contested possesions.

Kicking 0.2 couldve been the icing on a delicious cake...

Wasn't game enough to give him the C though

[LaHug]

Zach Merret mustve read this and put his game face on!

143 including 8 tackles and 18 contested possesions.

Kicking 0.2 couldve been the icing on a delicious cake...

Wasn't game enough to give him the C though

Made me look quite the fool. Very confusing round so far. Nobody doing what they're meant to except maybe Heater.

[colmullet]

Stef Martin: 79
Danger: 75
Titch: 111
Ablett: 83
Merrett: 63
Sidey: 96
Hall: 97
Titch: 61


My strike rate this year is horrible.....