LaHug's Captains 2016 - Round 5

[LaHug]

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A good footy journalist will trust their data and information but will own their mistakes. Fortunately, I don't consider myself a footy journalist and can say, with confidence, that last week was just really unlucky or something like that... For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. If I have the time (and they're relevant), I'll get to any requests you have too!

The facts & thoughts:

S. Mitchell
Last 3: 130, 117, 146 (131 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 106, 93, 103 (101 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 146, 124, 115 (128 avg)

I don't want to overreact to just a few games or anything but Sam Mitchell is the greatest athlete the world has ever seen. The man just gets so much footy! Last week, the Crows only gave up one ton but it was a 132 to Hannebery on the back of 38 disposals. Mitchell could easily match that with Adelaide not tagging, his ball winning ability, and his great form. Prediction - 130

Lewis
Last 3: 111, 60, 110 (94 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 107, 75, 90 (91 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 110, 134, 110 (118 avg)

Lewis bounced back last week but I'd remain cautious with an average record vs. Adelaide. He does love it at the MCG though. Prediction - 110

Hannebery
Last 3: 132, 100, 96 (109 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 86, 131, 116 (111 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 100, 76, 117 (98 avg)

Hanners continued his form of racking it up against the Crows last week and, other than a blip in his most recent outing, he's pretty good against the Eagles too. I think he'll be good but maybe not great. Prediction - 110

Parker
Last 3: 96, 121, 106 (108 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 87, 125, 84 (99 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 121, 135, 55 (104 avg)

Last week was his first game under 100 and a trend his coaches will hope stops at one. Very up and down against the Eagles but I like him here based on it being at home. Prediction - 115

T. Mitchell
Last 3: 60, 111, 143 (105 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 41, 74 (58 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 111, 132, 163 (135 avg)

What the hell was that last week?! Let's look past his form against the Eagles because of so many vests plaguing his past. Your concern is that 60 last week and whether it was a once off. If it was, that SCG form has you licking your lips! Too risky though. Prediction - 110

Ablett
Last 3: 83, 124, 97 (101 avg)
Last 3 against North: 119, 119, 119 (119 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 124, 134, 176 (145 avg)

Last week was disappointing and it looks like GAJ isn't playing great away from home this year. Luckily, he's back at Metricon for this week! Unluckily, he's gonna cop a tag from Ben Jacobs. Jacobs held Nathan Jones to 68 two weeks back but Fyfe fought him off for 137 last week. It took four goals to get there so don't expect that from Ablett but I do expect him to kick one or two and boost his score. Take away three goals from Fyfe's score and you get exactly what Ablett's scored on the Roos the last three times. Lock it in? Prediction - 119

Hunter
Last 3: 115, 86, 130 (110 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 67, 52 (60 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 115, 86, 130 (110 avg)

My fear for Hunter is that he might shy away against strong opposition (i.e. 86 against Hawthorn). Luckily, Brisbane are not strong opposition. Hell, if Martin's out with concussion and Rocky isn't back (he's a test), the Doggies midfield will have a ball and he'll go huge. Let's not get ahead of ourselves but do expect a solid score. Prediction - 115

Rockliff
Last 3: 24, 109 (67 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 149, 102, 139 (130 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 125, 95, 110 (110 avg)

Obviously, you'd be insane to do it, but Rocky loves playing the Dogs. Look out if he's named. Prediction - 110

Dangerfield
Last 3: 86, 107, 75 (89 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 90, 120, 113 (108 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 91, 95, 120 (102 avg)

Danger was meant to be a regular C choice and now he's spudding it up like he doesn't give a shower. Sure, he didn't have to try against Essendon last week but he should've done something against the Giants and I don't wanna bet on him bringing it this week against the hapless Power. Hopefully he brings it because of Showdowns back with the Crows... hopefully. Prediction - 100

Armitage
Last 3: 113, 80, 92 (95 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 84, 89, 109 (94 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 92, 111, 92 (98 avg)

One on hand, I'm sorry I doubted him. On the other, I'm doubting him again against a Giants team that destroyed Port last week. Prediction - 90

Steven
Last 3: 95, 133, 104 (111 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 136, 99, 109 (115 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 104, 120, 102 (109 avg)

The fact that 95 is very disappointing says it all. Steven doesn't miss the ton at Etihad and has scored well against the Giants. Prediction - 115

Fyfe
Last 3: 137, 122, 121 (127 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 76, 105, 101 (94 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 122, 121, 108 (117 avg)

Fyfe just scored 137 with the Jacobs tag... Carlton aren't very good and gave up four tons (plus 70 to JJ in half a game) including 33 disposals to Lachie Hunter. With Freo sucking and not having much of a forward line, expect the mids to kick their goals and Fyfe to go big. I don't care what his history against the Blues says (and it's not even that bad). Prediction - 130

Pendlebury
Last 3: 103, 108, 98 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 85, 118, 84 (96 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 103, 108, 98 (103 avg)

He's scored 5 ANZAC Day tons in a row but you have to go back to 2011 for one over last year's 118 (a HUGE 166). His form says ton but not big. Prediction - 105

Sidebottom
Last 3: 122, 87 (105 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 91, 109, 124 (108 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 122, 91, 111 (108 avg)

Missed ANZAC Day last year but has 124 and 143 in his last two. Really hard to call but my gut says he'll be the Pies' best. Prediction - 120

Zaharakis
Last 3: 112, 112, 126 (117 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 69, 78, 98 (82 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 112, 126, 69 (102 avg)

In 2013, Zaka won the ANZAC medal. Since then, he hasn't scored a ton against the Pies (and mostly hasn't looked close). This year is a different Zaka though and the Pies leaked 4 tons to the Dees. Prediction - 115

Merrett
Last 3: 127, 128, 136 (130 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 86, 94, 65 (82 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 127, 136, 84 (116 avg)

Can't look past that form. If, like me, you're stupid enough to still not have him, do something about it. No reason this will stop. If Tomas Bugg can score 121 against the Pies, Merrett should reach 120 too. Prediction - 120

LAHUG'S ROUGHIE OF THE WEEK!

It seems like this is the only segment I can get right (cue 60something from my pick) with Aaron Hall going well to continue the streak. In this segment, I'll talk about someone that, partly because of stats and mostly because of gut feeling, I think will go huge this week. It'll usually be somebody that you wouldn't usually give the C to but, if you have him and are feeling brave, might be worth a look.

Goldstein
Last 3: 96, 149, 62 (102 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 135, 108, 102 (115 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 135, 102, 104 (114 avg)

You can't give the C to someone who's scored under 100 twice in the last three... but then you realise his ton was 149. Add that he scored 135 against the Suns last year and that, before May tried to kill him, Stef Martin was well on track (56 from 39% TOG) and you have yourself a roughie! Gutsy Prediction - 140

LAHUG'S POTATO FORECAST!

Looks like I picked the wrong Saint last week as Armitage delivered but Steven flopped. Basically, I'll highlight a premium that is probably in plenty of teams but is both down on form and has some terrible history against this week's opponent. Get ready for a shocker of a score!

Gray
Last 3: 64, 93, 127 (95 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 86, 96, 71 (84 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 93, 127, 125 (115 avg)

After his fast start, I actually considered Gray as a POD. Thankfully, I didn't go there. Obviously, he's usually good at home but his last two weeks have been crap, his team have been crap, and he's never hit the ton vs. Geelong in 8 career attempts. Spudiction - 75

The verdict:
1.   Fyfe (130)

2.   S. Mitchell (130)
3.   Merrett (120)
4.   Sidebottom (120)
5.   Ablett (119)

Requests:

Hall   - Requested by Bill Manspeaker
Last 3: 114, 151, 126 (130 avg)   
Last 3 against North: 94, 70, 80 (81 avg)   
Last 3 at Metricon: 151, 125, 95 (124 avg)   

I'm a little bit embarrassed that this guy had to be requested. I don't know how I missed him in the write up! Anyway, he's stupidly consistent with last week's 114 almost a down week. Hard to look at his previous form as he only really had half a year of breakout before this year. What's important is that it's at Metricon and, while they haven't been super leaky, North aren't impossible to score well against. Prediction - 120

Adams   - Requested by Ricochet
Last 3: 106, 106, 101 (104 avg)   
Last 3 against Essendon: 127, 127, 84 (113 avg)   
Last 3 at MCG: 106, 106, 101 (104 avg)   

Adams is consistently scoring tons, they're just not huge. With how disappointing some premiums have been though, that might be something worth looking at. He has form against the Bombers but I'm finding it hard to work out what that means this year, where Essendon can either play really well and restrict you or really poorly and let you run free. Let's shoot down the middle. Prediction - 110

Neale   - Requested by Koop
Last 3: 132, 79, 98 (103 avg)   
Last 3 against Carlton: 105, 84, 87 (92 avg)   
Last 3 at Subi: 79, 98, 123 (100 avg)   

This is almost always my least favourite request as Neale is stupidly inconsistent. He can score very big, no doubt, but he backs it up with 80s and 90s that you wouldn't want the C to go near. I can't see him missing the ton vs. Carlton but there's little evidence to suggest it'll be big. Prediction - 105

Selwood   - Requested by aces-high
Last 3: 97, 114, 69 (93 avg)   
Last 3 against Port: 66, 73, 99 (79 avg)   
Last 3 at AO: 66, 73 (70 avg)   

Nope nope nope nope nope. No good against Port, awful in Adelaide, and not even having a good year. Prediction - 70



I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
Please follow this link: https://my-own-way-2016.everydayhero.com/au/william-huggett

[LaHug]

As of right now, I don't have any of my top 4 in any comp... oh dear.

[pommyadam]

currently bringing in the top guy in your thread this week
not because of that prediction though, because I want to

also... worth noting for your roughie selection is that GC haven't conceded above 75 to ruckmen yet
caveats:
rd1 (and 57) was to an underdone Leuenberger
rd2 (and 72) was to a 'limited preseason' Sandilands
rd3 (and 67) was to a Kreuzer (but they do double-team with Phillips)
rd4 (and 56) was to a KO'd Smartin (who was on track for 100+)

[LaHug]

currently bringing in the top guy in your thread this week
not because of that prediction though, because I want to

also... worth noting for your roughie selection is that GC haven't conceded above 75 to ruckmen yet
caveats:
rd1 (and 57) was to an underdone Leuenberger
rd2 (and 72) was to a 'limited preseason' Sandilands
rd3 (and 67) was to a Kreuzer (but they do double-team with Phillips)
rd4 (and 56) was to a KO'd Smartin (who was on track for 100+)

Berger backed that up with another 57 and a 73, spud. Sandi far from 100%. Before last week's 72, that 67 was Kreuzer's top score. And, finally, I already mentioned Martin who was comfortably on track for a ton (potentially a decent one too). I don't think Goldy's got a problem.

[HBTD22]

Bringing in Goldy for Martin this week and I think I'll probably go with him, even though I HATE captaining players on their first week in. Ablett, Adams, Danger, Hunter and Titchell all seem riskier at this stage so I'm not sold on any of them, which leaves me with either Hall or Goldy to choose from.

[Bill Manspeaker]

great work again mate, can I please get Hall's prediction? he's been Mr Reliable so far! appreciated as always Huggy 8)

[Thunderbolts]

Another great read with good advice.  8)

[Rusty00]

As of right now, I don't have any of my top 4 in any comp... oh dear.

Same. I really need to get one in this week!

[jvalles69]

This is a tough week to pick a C...Think I have to back Ablett at Metricon, but Jacobs! :(

[Ricochet]

Can I get Taylor Adams please mate

[TomK]

Nice work mate, going Zaha this week

[Koop]

Hey Huggy great work as usual mate! Can I get Lachie Neale as a POD please?

[LaHug]

great work again mate, can I please get Hall's prediction? he's been Mr Reliable so far! appreciated as always Huggy 8)

Hall   - Requested by Bill Manspeaker
Last 3: 114, 151, 126 (130 avg)   
Last 3 against North: 94, 70, 80 (81 avg)   
Last 3 at Metricon: 151, 125, 95 (124 avg)   

I'm a little bit embarrassed that this guy had to be requested. I don't know how I missed him in the write up! Anyway, he's stupidly consistent with last week's 114 almost a down week. Hard to look at his previous form as he only really had half a year of breakout before this year. What's important is that it's at Metricon and, while they haven't been super leaky, North aren't impossible to score well against. Prediction - 120



I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
Please follow this link: https://my-own-way-2016.everydayhero.com/au/william-huggett

[LaHug]

Can I get Taylor Adams please mate

Adams   - Requested by Ricochet
Last 3: 106, 106, 101 (104 avg)   
Last 3 against Essendon: 127, 127, 84 (113 avg)   
Last 3 at MCG: 106, 106, 101 (104 avg)   

Adams is consistently scoring tons, they're just not huge. With how disappointing some premiums have been though, that might be something worth looking at. He has form against the Bombers but I'm finding it hard to work out what that means this year, where Essendon can either play really well and restrict you or really poorly and let you run free. Let's shoot down the middle. Prediction - 110



I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
Please follow this link: https://my-own-way-2016.everydayhero.com/au/william-huggett

[LaHug]

Hey Huggy great work as usual mate! Can I get Lachie Neale as a POD please?

Neale   - Requested by Koop
Last 3: 132, 79, 98 (103 avg)   
Last 3 against Carlton: 105, 84, 87 (92 avg)   
Last 3 at Subi: 79, 98, 123 (100 avg)   

This is almost always my least favourite request as Neale is stupidly inconsistent. He can score very big, no doubt, but he backs it up with 80s and 90s that you wouldn't want the C to go near. I can't see him missing the ton vs. Carlton but there's little evidence to suggest it'll be big. Prediction - 105



I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
Please follow this link: https://my-own-way-2016.everydayhero.com/au/william-huggett