Marc Murphy

[GoLions]

Another bad score or 2 might make him cheap enough for me to consider. I've used too many trades on Rockliff, Crouch, et al that I can't afford this type of luxury. Unless he goes lower still.

If he posts a few more bad scores then, if anything, I wouldn't want him as he's not scoring well enough :P

A few 90-100+ scores in the next 3 weeks or so will make him very tempting.

[HotTiges]

Keeping an eye on him.Just not sure he can go 110+ from here..and that's what i want from mids im bringing in..Can see Sloane and Rocky do it i think..

[Ricochet]

I think i'd prefer him to have a couple more poor games rather than needing him to post decent scores as reassurance.

History suggests he's more likely than not to go 102+ so get the shower outta the way and hopefully the rest of the season will be big, bringing his average back up

[_wato]

Plus a few low scores makes his asking price even lower than it potentially could be. Could get Murph for $400k or less which is a steal imo

Plus people would not jump on making him a pod. Early days could make a load of points over those still hanging onto blokes like Parish and Oliver because we all know a lot of people do it and hold on for way too long. Then make him a M9 so you ain't losing points in the process too.

Would love to get a hold of his heat maps though.

[Judd Magic]

Not for me.

I only want the best of the best in my midfield.

Mids currently are - Ablett, Fyfe, Dangerfield, R.Gray, Libba, Parish, Mills, Oliver.

Next week Oliver becomes Hannebery and I will try and pick up Priddis, S.Mitchell and Pendles to complete my mids I reckon.

Libba will end up as my M9.  8)

[Grufflez]

yeah nah, its a no from me. i see the reasoning, but he just hasnt been relevant for a long time now. im a blues supporter. captaincy ruined this bloke.

Murphy was a great support act to Judd and now Cripps is becoming the main man in there (although having a rough/slow start this year)
Murph has never really handled that number 1 role well, i think these things more than captaincy hurt him (SC wise)

[Grufflez]

Rocky I'll get when he is cheap and showing something. Not atm

Don't want Sloane. Shiel will match if not beat him.

Hanners I'll also get and Titch should match Parker from here out. Don't think Parker will go much more than 110 for the year.

Can I have a look at those heat maps please Capper? Would love to see.

Dunno, a 105-110+ player priced at 80 is super tempting.

Dont have direct access to heat maps, i get them from other people with AFL live access

Shiel will not average higher than Sloane this year

This.

If you look at Shiels big scores from early last year that seem to have stamped themselves on peoples brains as
''this guy can go huge and will break out anytime'' you realise that they were all against extremely weak opposition and
that shiel has never actually proven himself.
We just seem to remember that huge start he had over5 or w/e it was games,go check those teams he smashed.
Also scored like 50 twice once he got close attention.

I am considering Sloan but not sold on him completely yet either.

[Grufflez]

High risk, potentially high reward.

After Malthouse's sacking last season, he averaged 111 for the remainder. In the first eight games under Malthouse, he averaged just 92.4.

Look at his season averages since 2009:

112.9
111.9
118.0
112.7
92.4
106.0
103.2

We know that he has the ability to average 110+ because he has done it four times already.

This season:

Round 1: 123 (73% TOG) vs. Richmond.
Round 2: 84 (78% TOG) vs. Sydney.
Round 3: 64 (74% TOG) vs. Gold Coast.
Round 4: 36 (53% TOG) vs. Western Bulldogs.

If he can ton up in the next couple of weeks, I will heavily consider him at 430k.

Nice stats, so i am guessing that he took over from Juddy around that middle patch where he slumped badly?
Got to remember scoring history doesn't matter if that player has a complete role change, as Murphy did
when he became the number 1 man.

Last years post Malthouse stats are much more relevant and interesting though.

[Grufflez]

Wato, with guys like shiel and libba in your team you really need more top enders and not any more M8's mate, gl jmo

[_wato]

Shiel went 106 unsubbed last year, and tonned against Hawks Eagles Crows before his injury. Don't see how they're easy teams and how that is considered a M8 average. All he has to do is improve another few points to become a 110avg premo.

And how can you pigeonhole him as a player who hasnt proven himself when he's only 23. Most blokes haven't done that by his age either. The kid is a jet.

And Libba ain't staying on my team lol, his last two scores has given me evidence that he's gonna score consistently but between 80-110 nothing much above and less. So good for a possible 100avg, and not much more. Dogs team is way too even across the field

[Holz]

Shiel went 106 unsubbed last year, and tonned against Hawks Eagles Crows before his injury. Don't see how they're easy teams and how that is considered a M8 average. All he has to do is improve another few points to become a 110avg premo.

And how can you pigeonhole him as a player who hasnt proven himself when he's only 23. Most blokes haven't done that by his age either. The kid is a jet.

And Libba ain't staying on my team lol, his last two scores has given me evidence that he's gonna score consistently but between 80-110 nothing much above and less. So good for a possible 100avg, and not much more. Dogs team is way too even across the field

Sloane has proved he can go 115+

Shiel has proved he can go 105 and be a guy who you have at m8 but wish he was m9. Prefer murphy for less

[_wato]

Sloane also averaged 105.8 at the same age as Shiel was last year.

Then 107 the year after. Comparison can be justified. 

Griffen has also proven he can go 115+ but do we rate him? No

Sloane will not go 115 this year so stop banking on it. More like 105-110. You say Shiel is a poor mans M8, so is Sloane in my mind too. If you can have a bloke who goes 105 at M8 you're doing alright imo

[crowls]

If you can have a bloke who goes 105 at M8 you're doing alright imo

have-ablett, danger, fyfe, selwood, smitch libba  mills kerridge   
mills > pendles
kerridge> ward, hanner, priddis
libba>??? or just leave at m8

[ants]

Shiel went 106 unsubbed last year, and tonned against Hawks Eagles Crows before his injury. Don't see how they're easy teams and how that is considered a M8 average. All he has to do is improve another few points to become a 110avg premo.

And how can you pigeonhole him as a player who hasnt proven himself when he's only 23. Most blokes haven't done that by his age either. The kid is a jet.

And Libba ain't staying on my team lol, his last two scores has given me evidence that he's gonna score consistently but between 80-110 nothing much above and less. So good for a possible 100avg, and not much more. Dogs team is way too even across the field

Sloane has proved he can go 115+

Shiel has proved he can go 105 and be a guy who you have at m8 but wish he was m9. Prefer murphy for less

have to agree i rate murph and shiel the same and murph is a lot cheaper! in a couple of weeks hes a bargain!

[Mat0369]

Murphy was a great support act to Judd and now Cripps is becoming the main man in there (although having a rough/slow start this year)
Murph has never really handled that number 1 role well, i think these things more than captaincy hurt him (SC wise)

I don't completely agree with this. People see the one or two bad games he has with the tag and say 'oh he's crap, he can't deal, blah blah blah'. He has also gotten the tag from some of the best and absolutely smashed it, what has killed him in recent years is first of all the injuries and secondly the Malthouse factor.

He has had injuries in the first quarter of games which has seen his average plummet, he has gone out there injured a few times (knee issues) because we've needed him as the captain of the club and he has barely had a pre-season most of the years since 2011 due to the knee and the shoulder last year.

Malthouse was a different issue, he had us playing a low possession prehistoric game plan and had Murphy sitting in the forward line because we lacked goal kickers and he could hit the scoreboard. Unfortunately he has no idea how to play as a forward and his goals all came playing through the minefield. This saw his contested possession numbers and overall possession numbers drop along with his goals even though he was playing more forward. It was a recipe for disaster. When he was allowed to play his natural game in the midfield he would normally ton up or get  pretty close.

I broke down his points per possession numbers for 2010-2013 to get an idea how he was scoring at the time. I can post them in here if you want but I can't be farked doing 2014-2015.

I think the 2nd half of last year was arguably the best of his career. He really grew as a leader and was trying to drag the team with him. Obviously 2011 looks prettier on paper but considering the circumstances and the pressure he was under he stood up. He was really killing it up until the shoulder injury and freeing the shackles in terms of game plan really helped him out. His scoreboard impact is way down from when he was posting huge SC numbers but his overall numbers were back up.

The one major thing that would make me hesitant in picking him is the limited pre-season. He had issues with the shoulder and was pushing to get back. I  know he came out and killed it in round 1, but I would want to wait until he gets his legs under him a bit. Lack of pre-season is generally a big cross so I'll want to wait until around the byes before jumping on.