LaHug's Captains 2016: Round 4

[LaHug]

I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
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My top 6 averaged over 115 last week with only Gray failing to hit the ton. Sounds like a pretty good week to me! For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. If I have the time (and they're relevant), I'll get to any requests you have too!

The facts & thoughts:

Priddis
Last 3: 110, 67, 137 (105 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 95, 147, 91 (111 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 110, 137, 129 (125 avg)

As Priddis has already shown early this season, he's much better in Perth than elsewhere. This week, he plays the struggling Tigers at home and will continue his good record against them. Prediction - 110

Gaff
Last 3: 111, 111, 87 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 110, 83, 43 (79 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 111, 87, 125 (108 avg)

A couple of solid 111s in a row now and Gaff looks probable to score similarly this week. Prediction - 110

D. Martin
Last 3: 99, 114, 75 (96 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 150, 101, 90 (114 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 142, 101, 90 (111 avg)

Dusty went ham on the Eagles last year for a huge 150 and his previous scores against them aren't too bad either. The lack of consistency is what's keeping me away. Prediction - 105

Merrett
Last 3: 128, 136, 119 (128 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 106, 21 (64 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 136, 84, 90 (103 avg)

Zach's scoring so far this season is no fluke, he's a gun! He's scored in victories and in big losses so expect him to keep getting tons. Prediction - 120

Zaharakis
Last 3: 112, 126, 125 (121 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 103, 122, 81 (102 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 126, 69, 71 (89 avg)

Looks like Zaka's no fluke either. If you remember last week, I said he'll score well against anyone he has a good record against. He has a good record against the Cats. Prediction - 115

Dangerfield
Last 3: 107, 75, 137 (106 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 118, 79, 51 (83 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 137, 108, 89 (111 avg)

After giving up 6 tons in Round 1, the Bombers have only given up 3 total in the past two weeks. Don't be concerned though, this is likely due to Melbourne and Port sucking. Geelong don't suck and Danger will feast! Prediction - 125

Selwood
Last 3: 114, 69, 85 (89 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 118, 133, 101 (117 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 85, 57, 98 (80 avg)

114 is actually way less than I thought he could get against Brisbane and it gives me concerns about Selwood. If he looked 100%, I'd be backing 130+ this week, but he doesn't. Prediction - 120

Lewis
Last 3: 60, 110, 134 (101 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 80, 122, 100 (101 avg)
Last 3 at Launceston: 106, 108, 152 (122 avg)

Shiel back and he struggles. Surely not the sole reason but it doesn't look good, particularly as he only scored 80 on them most recently. That said, he loves it in Launceston and will get a ton. Prediction - 105

S. Mitchell
Last 3: 117, 146, 124 (129 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 90, 7, 77 (58 avg)
Last 3 at Launceston: 142, 108, 120 (123 avg)

Would it be a stretch to say Mitchell's still a top 5 player in the AFL? This guy just doesn't stop dominating. His record against the Saints doesn't look great but it's impossible to ignore his form this year and his scoring in Launceston. Prediction - 125

Steven
Last 3: 133, 104, 123 (120 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 133, 108, 99 (113 avg)
Last 3 at Launceston: 76 (76 avg)

The Saints don't get many chances in Tassie but I don't think the ground matters. Steven is a Fantasy GOD and will score you a captain-worthy score every week. Prediction - 125

Montagna
Last 3: 160, 98, 112 (123 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 112, 151, 111 (125 avg)
Last 3 at Launceston: 93, 68, 80 (80 avg)

Absolutely adores playing the Hawks but wasn't great against them back when this fixture was held in Launceston. That was back in 2006 though so we can ignore it comfortably and lock him in for a ton. Prediction - 120

S. Martin
Last 3: 81, 97, 79 (86 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 138, 116, 122 (125 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 97, 152, 124 (124 avg)

Kreuzer only scored 67 against Nicholls and Sandilands only 72. The numbers look so good that he must get a ton this week but his form and Gold Coast's say no. Prediction - 90

Ablett
Last 3: 124, 97, 134 (118 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 146, 105, 143 (131 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 143, 97, 106 (115 avg)

Back-to-back spots at the top of my list for GAJ. Only thing missing is it being at Metricon but he scored 143 last time it was in Brisbane so that's not even a concern. The Lions gave up 7 tons to a team that didn't even give it their all last week. As much as the Q-Clash is a joke to those outside of Queensland, he'll take is seriously and dominate. Prediction - 130

Hunter
Last 3: 86, 130, 108 (108 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: N/A
Last 3 at Etihad: 86, 130, 108 (108 avg)

Did you know that Lachie Hunter has never played Carlton before? Did you also know that Carlton's given up 151, 143, 124, and 123 in the last two weeks against teams much better than them? Did you also know that the Bulldogs are much better than them? Yeah... Prediction - 120

T. Mitchell
Last 3: 111, 143, 132 (129 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 132, 41, 144 (106 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 41 (41 avg)

That 41 looks bad but it was sub affected (still played three quarters) and was in 2014. Everything else looks really good though so you gotta back him to go BANG. Prediction - 130

Parker
Last 3: 121, 106, 135 (121 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 112, 121, 91 (108 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 86, 106, 121 (104 avg)

Probably leading the Brownlow right now and doesn't look to slow down with the Crows being another opponent he's good against. Prediction - 120

Hannebery
Last 3: 100, 96, 76 (91 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 153, 80, 136 (123 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 87, 55, 80 (74 avg)

Finally got a ton last week but only just. That 153 looks so tempting but I'd be steering clear until he starts racking up the big points. Prediction - 105

Gray
Last 3: 93, 127, 125 (115 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 82, 113, 28 (74 avg)
Last 3 at Manuka: 113 (113 avg)

Been pretty good this season and happily scored 113 last time they played in Canberra. Should be good again. Prediction - 105

Pendlebury
Last 3: 108, 98, 84 (97 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 93, 119, 100 (104 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 108, 98, 85 (97 avg)

I'm still not convinced he's not injured and those numbers don't even look that convincing. Prediction - 95

Goldstein
Last 3: 149, 62, 121 (111 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 111, 73, 62 (82 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 121, 107, 111 (113 avg)

Goldy's huge 149 last week was very much helped by 5 goals. He was, however, hindered by Gawn smashing him in the hitouts. Take away those 5 goals (-30) and add the probable 15 extra hitouts against Griffin (if the Dockers decide to go with him) and you still have 134. He probably won't go that big this week but it'll be a healthy ton at home. Prediction - 115

Fyfe
Last 3: 122, 121, 54 (99 avg)
Last 3 against North: 90, 111, 119 (107 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 54, 90, 109 (84 avg)

I love that Fremantle can play like absolute crap and Fyfe will still score 121 and 122. Mark my words, they will get smashed by North, but Fyfe should still be ok. Prediction - 110

LAHUG'S ROUGHIE OF THE WEEK!

Tick and tick for the two Bombers last week. Looks like they might be legit this year. In this segment, I'll talk about someone that, partly because of stats and mostly because of gut feeling, I think will go huge this week. It'll usually be somebody that you wouldn't usually give the C to but, if you have him and are feeling brave, might be worth a look.

Hall
Last 3: 151, 126, 125 (134 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 112, 89, 57 (86 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 112, 89, 54 (85 avg)

Carlton and Essendon are, arguably, the two worst teams in the AFL, giving people a legitimate reason to doubt Hall's 125 and 151. If you really want to be a pessimist, you can point out that Freo suck this year too. So, if you want to argue that he's only averaging 134 because he's played crap teams, look up this week's opponent. Brisbane are the definition of crap right now so lock in another biggie! Gutsy prediction - 135

LAHUG'S POTATO FORECAST!

After a week of twice the Roughies and none of the spuds, we're back. Basically, I'll highlight a premium that is probably in plenty of teams but is both down on form and has some terrible history against this week's opponent. Get ready for a shocker of a score!

Armitage
Last 3: 80, 92, 105 (92 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 115, 70, 44 (76 avg)
Last 3 at Launceston: 127 (127 avg)

Based on the last two weeks, Hawthorn's stinginess, and some sketchy history vs. the Hawks, Armitage has quickly gone from "safe ton" to SPUD. Might be his worst score yet! Spudiction - 75

The verdict:
1.   Ablett (130)

2.   T. Mitchell (130)
3.   Steven (125)
4.   S. Mitchell (125)
5.   Dangerfield (125)

Requests:

Shiel   - Requested by pommyadam
Last 3: 94, 91, 88 (91 avg)   
Last 3 against Port: 91, 73, 64 (76 avg)   
Last 3 at Manuka: 91, 135, 136 (121 avg)   

Last week, Shiel racked up 94 in just 70% TOG. That said, he didn't reach the ton in his other two games either and he's no good against Port. He went bang and bang in Canberra last year but he only had 91 against Port, that time from 71% TOG. In fact, looking at TOG more closely, it was only 76% in Round 1. Shiel's scoring well per minute but you can't back him until he's playing more than 3/4 of the game! Prediction - 90

Gibbs   - Requested by Barra13
Last 3: 87, 80, 127 (98 avg)   
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 111, 76, 93 (93 avg)   
Last 3 at Etihad: 80, 37, 92 (70 avg)   

You'd be nuts to consider him. He started with a bang against the Tigers but hasn't looked as competitive since. The Bulldogs are super stingy with points so far this season so that's a risk too. 111 in his last game against them is nice but I'm betting on the Blues to get smashed so Gibbs just can't score a ton. Prediction - 85



I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
Please follow this link: https://my-own-way-2016.everydayhero.com/au/william-huggett

[LaHug]

Shiel   - Requested by pommyadam
Last 3: 94, 91, 88 (91 avg)   
Last 3 against Port: 91, 73, 64 (76 avg)   
Last 3 at Manuka: 91, 135, 136 (121 avg)   

Last week, Shiel racked up 94 in just 70% TOG. That said, he didn't reach the ton in his other two games either and he's no good against Port. He went bang and bang in Canberra last year but he only had 91 against Port, that time from 71% TOG. In fact, looking at TOG more closely, it was only 76% in Round 1. Shiel's scoring well per minute but you can't back him until he's playing more than 3/4 of the game! Prediction - 90



I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
Please follow this link: https://my-own-way-2016.everydayhero.com/au/william-huggett

[HBTD22]

Hard to go past Gaz once again, he has treated me well through three rounds. Always tempting to jump on Titchell but I'll be sticking with the tried and tested GAJ.

[pommyadam]

Shiel   - Requested by pommyadam
Last 3: 94, 91, 88 (91 avg)   
Last 3 against Port: 91, 73, 64 (76 avg)   
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 41, 52, 83 (59 avg)   

Last week, Shiel racked up 94 in just 70% TOG. That said, he didn't reach the ton in his other two games either, he's no good against Port, and he's crap at home. That 41 was him getting injured but the 52 and 83 are just struggles. Prediction - 80

I'll shush, but the game is in Canberra/Manuka, not at Spotless/Showgrounds
you picked the correct ground for their opponents though (Gray and Port)

[LaHug]

Shiel   - Requested by pommyadam
Last 3: 94, 91, 88 (91 avg)   
Last 3 against Port: 91, 73, 64 (76 avg)   
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 41, 52, 83 (59 avg)   

Last week, Shiel racked up 94 in just 70% TOG. That said, he didn't reach the ton in his other two games either, he's no good against Port, and he's crap at home. That 41 was him getting injured but the 52 and 83 are just struggles. Prediction - 80

I'll shush, but the game is in Canberra/Manuka, not at Spotless/Showgrounds
you picked the correct ground for their opponents though (Gray and Port)

I have no idea how I managed to get it wrong for one player but right for others. Will fix it now. Sorry mate! Clearly rushed it.

[LaHug]

Shiel   - Requested by pommyadam
Last 3: 94, 91, 88 (91 avg)   
Last 3 against Port: 91, 73, 64 (76 avg)   
Last 3 at Manuka: 91, 135, 136 (121 avg)   

Last week, Shiel racked up 94 in just 70% TOG. That said, he didn't reach the ton in his other two games either and he's no good against Port. He went bang and bang in Canberra last year but he only had 91 against Port, that time from 71% TOG. In fact, looking at TOG more closely, it was only 76% in Round 1. Shiel's scoring well per minute but you can't back him until he's playing more than 3/4 of the game! Prediction - 90



I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
Please follow this link: https://my-own-way-2016.everydayhero.com/au/william-huggett

Edited. My bad, mate! His sub-100 scoring this year seems to be a TOG issue. If he starts playing more game time (is there a fitness issue??) he might actually be a really good pick up!

[Barra13]

Gibbs?

[LaHug]

Gibbs   - Requested by Barra13
Last 3: 87, 80, 127 (98 avg)   
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 111, 76, 93 (93 avg)   
Last 3 at Etihad: 80, 37, 92 (70 avg)   

You'd be nuts to consider him. He started with a bang against the Tigers but hasn't looked as competitive since. The Bulldogs are super stingy with points so far this season so that's a risk too. 111 in his last game against them is nice but I'm betting on the Blues to get smashed so Gibbs just can't score a ton. Prediction - 85



I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
Please follow this link: https://my-own-way-2016.everydayhero.com/au/william-huggett

[LF]

Jack Macrae if you get time please and thank you Huggy

[Nige]

Wouldn't mind a look at Luke Dahlhaus if you don't mind, Huggy!

[LaHug]

Will try to do them tomorrow if I get home from work in time but highly unlikely. Sorry guys!

[Jalapeno]

Thank LH!

I followed you roughie last week and was pretty happy :)

So this week I will be going A Hall!!

Fingers crossed!!  8)

[WhatMate]

Let's go Hall  ;D

[pommyadam]

is Bellis (78) a flop score?

my curse:
rd1 - JP Kennedy 63
rd2 - T Rockliff 24
rd3 - D Parish 67
rd4 - B Ellis 78

well at least I'm on the improve :P

[LaHug]

is Bellis (78) a flop score?

my curse:
rd1 - JP Kennedy 63
rd2 - T Rockliff 24
rd3 - D Parish 67
rd4 - B Ellis 78

well at least I'm on the improve :P

I didn't have him in my write up but, when I gave him a quick look, I had him pencilled in for 110. So yeah, counts as a flop. Great job!