Blicavs

[tor01doc]

he lacks the ceiling of a genuine premo mid in my opinion. but i think he is a solid option for the ruck.

Agree with this.

Two bites of the cherry at captaincy demands more than 110 per week.

Looking for 140 plus or even 170 woo hoo.

[Spite]

he lacks the ceiling of a genuine premo mid in my opinion. but i think he is a solid option for the ruck.

Agree with this.

Two bites of the cherry at captaincy demands more than 110 per week.

Looking for 140 plus or even 170 woo hoo.

he lacks the ceiling of a genuine premo mid in my opinion. but i think he is a solid option for the ruck.

Makes no sense man. There's so many other captain options in gaz, Fyfe, danger, goldy etc that he doesn't need have a huge ceiling as long as he consistently pumps out 110ish scores. All about the points scored at the end of the day, not who scores the highest in any given week

[tor01doc]

he lacks the ceiling of a genuine premo mid in my opinion. but i think he is a solid option for the ruck.

Agree with this.

Two bites of the cherry at captaincy demands more than 110 per week.

Looking for 140 plus or even 170 woo hoo.

he lacks the ceiling of a genuine premo mid in my opinion. but i think he is a solid option for the ruck.

Makes no sense man. There's so many other captain options in gaz, Fyfe, danger, goldy etc that he doesn't need have a huge ceiling as long as he consistently pumps out 110ish scores. All about the points scored at the end of the day, not who scores the highest in any given week

I am quoting a quoted quote because I want to get this clear.

People pick him as a mid elite because he scores 110ish?

I just don't think that is enough.

[Grufflez]

People over estimate every year what their players on each line will get, if your m8 is averaging 110 and your D6 90-95 and your F6 90-95
You have probably won the bloody comp!

People also talk about "averages" but as long you someone has at least 2 high ceiling captain options
the only averages that matter are overall points scored, thus durability is a fine commodity to own.

People can't get their head around a ruckman sized midfielder he is totally unique.

His ownership is actually just over 10% so he is not a massive POD anyway.

[tor01doc]

Need at least 3, if not 4 high ceiling guys as games can overlap, teams play each other, loopholes can vary.

I would prefer to have

GAJ, Fyfe, Parker, Danger, Smitch, Pendles, Gray and Priddis

over

GAJ, Fyfe, Parker, Danger, Smitch, Pendles, Gray and Blicavs

as an example.

I love a discussion.

[tor01doc]

You need sleep.

You were up far too late last night.

[Marstar]

I posed this question preseason and it still baffles me why people try to compare his points output to other Mids.

He's obviously going to be used at R2.  Unless Goldy gets a friend in the 120+ bracket ... then at least Blitz can be moved to M6-8.  Didn't last years winner have Jordan Lewis?

The only convo that needed to be had was ... can you take him over NN or S.Martin.

I think it's worth the punt.

[Spite]

You're not making any sense Doc. You said you need 3 or 4 high ceiling players and I've stated now twice already (3rd time incoming!!) that you'll have FYFE, GAZ, DANGER, GOLDY and therefor do not need players with high variance in your team. Blicavs pumping out 110s is perfectly fine, he doesn't have to be a captain option. 110 would sit him above Smitch's average from last season btw and Blicavs - as it has been said by Grufflez - doesn't miss games like others do.

(Last year 110ish was a top 8 midfielder, I listed them before as well)

Conversation recap so far:

Me: guys you have 4 amazing captain choices already so can get someone consistent and durable
First person: he doesn't score high enough to be a captain option so I don't want him.
Doc: yes I agree, consistent 110 average isn't good enough and he isn't a C option,
Me: dude I just said you already have 4 options so he's not needed as a C option. Everyone in your team doesn't have to be a C option.
Doc: you need at least 3 or 4 captain options each week. Blicavs doesn't give you that. You need sleep
Me: Fml

[tor01doc]

You're not making any sense Doc. You said you need 3 or 4 high ceiling players and I've stated now twice already (3rd time incoming!!) that you'll have FYFE, GAZ, DANGER, GOLDY and therefor do not need players with high variance in your team. Blicavs pumping out 110s is perfectly fine, he doesn't have to be a captain option. 110 would sit him above Smitch's average from last season btw and Blicavs - as it has been said by Grufflez - doesn't miss games like others do.

(Last year 110ish was a top 8 midfielder, I listed them before as well)

Conversation recap so far:

Me: guys you have 4 amazing captain choices already so can get someone consistent and durable
First person: he doesn't score high enough to be a captain option so I don't want him.
Doc: yes I agree, consistent 110 average isn't good enough and he isn't a C option,
Me: dude I just said you already have 4 options so he's not needed as a C option. Everyone in your team doesn't have to be a C option.
Doc: you need at least 3 or 4 captain options each week. Blicavs doesn't give you that. You need sleep
Me: Fml

OK.

I can't see him averaging enough to stay top 8 mid. Probably where I am coming from.

I have set and forget rucks - Goldy and Martin (may regret starting Martin over Blitz but not changing now).

Doesn't need to be a captain but if he did have the same average by year's end compared to a guy with a higher ceiling (same average) I'd still go the guy with a higher ceiling for options. Not vital but could be handy.

I guess I am not at all confident he can outscore the 'pure' mids of SC so will watch and maybe learn.

PS No need to swear  :P

Will pay more attention in future Spite, but occasionally I just see the lights on and drop in.

[Grufflez]

You're not making any sense Doc. You said you need 3 or 4 high ceiling players and I've stated now twice already (3rd time incoming!!) that you'll have FYFE, GAZ, DANGER, GOLDY and therefor do not need players with high variance in your team. Blicavs pumping out 110s is perfectly fine, he doesn't have to be a captain option. 110 would sit him above Smitch's average from last season btw and Blicavs - as it has been said by Grufflez - doesn't miss games like others do.

(Last year 110ish was a top 8 midfielder, I listed them before as well)

Conversation recap so far:

Me: guys you have 4 amazing captain choices already so can get someone consistent and durable
First person: he doesn't score high enough to be a captain option so I don't want him.
Doc: yes I agree, consistent 110 average isn't good enough and he isn't a C option,
Me: dude I just said you already have 4 options so he's not needed as a C option. Everyone in your team doesn't have to be a C option.
Doc: you need at least 3 or 4 captain options each week. Blicavs doesn't give you that. You need sleep
Me: Fml

OK.

I can't see him averaging enough to stay top 8 mid. Probably where I am coming from.

I have set and forget rucks - Goldy and Martin (may regret starting Martin over Blitz but not changing now).

Doesn't need to be a captain but if he did have the same average by year's end compared to a guy with a higher ceiling (same average) I'd still go the guy with a higher ceiling for options. Not vital but could be handy.

I guess I am not at all confident he can outscore the 'pure' mids of SC so will watch and maybe learn.

PS No need to swear  :P

Will pay more attention in future Spite, but occasionally I just see the lights on and drop in.

But the lights aren't on Doc,
So you head around the back to see if that's where everyone is hanging out but..
No one is there either, it's still dark but the backdoor is wide open,
ever so carefully you enter because you are worried about the welfare of your ''friends''.
As you pass the first room on your left suddenly a light comes on from the kitchen further up the hallway..
With trepidation you slowly move towards the source of the light wondering why you can't hear anybodies voice or footstep's,
You turn into the kitchen where the light was coming from only to discover your ''friends'' who happen to be avid Blicavs supporters
standing around you an a circle formation holding what appear to be long socks with solid objects in them!
The vicious sock beating begins....

[tor01doc]

Why are you beating my socks?

[Spite]

You're not making any sense Doc. You said you need 3 or 4 high ceiling players and I've stated now twice already (3rd time incoming!!) that you'll have FYFE, GAZ, DANGER, GOLDY and therefor do not need players with high variance in your team. Blicavs pumping out 110s is perfectly fine, he doesn't have to be a captain option. 110 would sit him above Smitch's average from last season btw and Blicavs - as it has been said by Grufflez - doesn't miss games like others do.

(Last year 110ish was a top 8 midfielder, I listed them before as well)

Conversation recap so far:

Me: guys you have 4 amazing captain choices already so can get someone consistent and durable
First person: he doesn't score high enough to be a captain option so I don't want him.
Doc: yes I agree, consistent 110 average isn't good enough and he isn't a C option,
Me: dude I just said you already have 4 options so he's not needed as a C option. Everyone in your team doesn't have to be a C option.
Doc: you need at least 3 or 4 captain options each week. Blicavs doesn't give you that. You need sleep
Me: Fml

OK.

I can't see him averaging enough to stay top 8 mid. Probably where I am coming from.

I have set and forget rucks - Goldy and Martin (may regret starting Martin over Blitz but not changing now).

Doesn't need to be a captain but if he did have the same average by year's end compared to a guy with a higher ceiling (same average) I'd still go the guy with a higher ceiling for options. Not vital but could be handy.

I guess I am not at all confident he can outscore the 'pure' mids of SC so will watch and maybe learn.

PS No need to swear  :P

Will pay more attention in future Spite, but occasionally I just see the lights on and drop in.

That's ok Doc, all good.

So my next question for the discussion will be; why don't you think he can be a top 10 mid? (I said 10 not 8 because it's unlikely we will all end up with the best 8 mids).

Remember he only just got into the AFL game, so his natural improvement is probably a lot higher than others. If he just figures out how to read the play a tiny bit better and can improve 2 possessions per game, he can take his 105 average from last year, to 110, the magic number.

I like how you said you weren't confident of him out scoring "pure" mids because I have a theory that I'll share now. In the old days, we knew mids outscored defenders and forwards so we would want as many of them in our team as possible. Fwd/mids rule! But I believe the passing of the baton has begun and that rucks are now what are most desirable. There's crappy fwd/mids just like crappy fwd/rucks so I'm obviously talking about the NN, Gawn, Smartin, Jacobs, Goldy and Blicavs. Goldy was the highest scoring player in the game so rucks can match - and beat - mids. So maybe we will want as many "premo" rucks as possible in the future?
If those players I mentioned had fwd/ruck, they'd be in everyone's teams. Blicavs just has a different kind of DPP and has to compete against mids. It's a closer battle, but we've seen rucks outscore mids plenty of times before!

The changing of the guard is coming and Blicavs is here to show us the light ;)

[MC]

Ok I'll jump in with my 2c...

*1st cent - Blicavs is no longer a ruck, he plays in the middle/wing. He's averaging 1 more disposal, 1 less mark, 10 less hitouts, same tackles... only difference seems to be goals kicked which may not last.
*2nd cent - Blicavs would be 4th or 5th in the pecking order as a Geelong mid. Danger, Joel, Duncan, Guthrie all ahead of him at least. Can there be 3+ Geelong mids in the top 10?

[tor01doc]

Thanks Spite'n'MC

I think we are seeing more really high scores.

At least 12 over 150 already

Goldy Gawn Gibson Montagna Danger Parker Priddis NicNait JJK Waite and a couple more.

I think we can  aim higher this year. Just a hunch.

I would have no problems with Blitz at R2.

I think teams will start to put more time into stopping him as well.

As for 5th at Geelng in SC - no. But 3rd yes.

Wish we could could fast forward.

Cheers

[PowerBug]

Who likes graphs? I like graphs. Here's a graph for you all


For the person that may not understand this here is a quick explanation:

- The blue dots show the disposals Blicavs has gotten. The higher they are the more disposals he got. The further to the right they the more SC points he got in that match
- The red dots show the same but for hitouts.
- The lines are the best fit lines, basically it's position such that it is as close to the data as possible.
- In simple terms the number next to the line shows you how well the data fits the line. The bigger the number the more it fits the line.

Conclusion: Hitouts have no effect on Blicavs SC scoring.


There's obviously like 100 other variables to SC scoring but here is a simple trendline that may help some people. If you believe Blicavs will keep racking up the touches, well get him in. His drop in hitouts doesn't matter. I got him in last week after looking at this stuff, I reckon he'll just keep plowing along all game and get his 15-20 touches a game :)