LAHUG'S CAPTAINS 2016 - ROUND 1 - WE'RE BACK!

[LaHug]

I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
Please follow this link: https://my-own-way-2016.everydayhero.com/au/william-huggett



LOOPHOLE UPDATE:

If you had Gibbs, Murphy, or Lambert (lol) as your VC, take their score. Otherwise, stick with your captain!



Footy's back! How good is that?! For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. If I have the time (and they're relevant), I'll get to any requests you have too!

We have a partial lockout this week for the Richmond vs. Carlton game which means we can use the CAPTAINS LOOPHOLE!

How it works:

1.   Select a player from the Tigers or Blues as your VICE CAPTAIN.
2.   For now, set your captain to someone worthy of captaincy in another game in case you forget to change it.
3.   IF your VC scores really well, sub a non-playing player onto the field and set them as captain. It's round 1 so this should only be the case if you have a non-playing ruck rookie.
4.   Make sure you have an emergency in the position of your non-playing captain!

Note: This has risks if there are any late withdrawals as you won't have cover. I will not accept any responsibility for any such misfortune. Your team, your decision!

Important note from pommyadam: RDT is a ROLLING LOCKOUT! You can loophole cleverly throughout the week. Afraid of GAJ being underdone? Give him the VC and use Mason Cox (for example) as your loophole captain if GAJ explodes. For this, of course, you need to be paying attention... Of course, with only one ruck bench spot and Currie probably your best rookie pick, this might be too hard. You don't want to start with a non-playing rookie solely for one captain score.

The facts:

Cotchin
2015 average: 91.4
Best 3 of 2015: 145 vs. GWS, 131 vs. Collingwood, 119 vs. Brisbane
Last 3 against Carlton: 92, 54, 79 (75 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 58, 100, 98 (85 avg)

Ellis
2015 average: 102.7
Best 3 of 2015: 140 vs. Collingwood, 127 vs. Collingwood, 122 vs. West Coast
Last 3 against Carlton: 96, 121, 93 (103 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 82, 140, 104 (109 avg)

Gibbs
2015 average: 81.1
Best 3 of 2015: 125 vs. West Coast, 103 vs. Brisbane, 96 vs. Richmond
Last 3 against Richmond: 85, 96, 61 (81 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 85, 95, 41 (74 avg)

Murphy
2015 average: 98.3
Best 3 of 2015: 139 vs. Collingwood, 128 vs. Adelaide, 122 vs. Port
Last 3 against Richmond: 92, 67, 103 (87 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 68, 139, 92 (100 avg)

Ward
2015 average: 100.4
Best 3 of 2015: 149 vs. Brisbane, 138 vs. Gold Coast, 125 vs. Hawthorn
Last 3 against Melbourne: 123, 105, 46 (91 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 82, 108, 46 (79 avg)

Ablett
2015 average: 94.5
Best 3 of 2015: 176 vs. GWS, 119 vs. Port, 119 vs. Bulldogs
Last 3 against Essendon: 136, 160, 81 (126 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 176, 119, 70 (122 avg)

Goldstein
2015 average: 113.8
Best 3 of 2015: 175 vs. Essendon, 155 vs. Melbourne, 153 vs. Brisbane
Last 3 against Adelaide: 85, 86, 85 (85 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 107, 111, 102 (107 avg)

J.P. Kennedy
2015 average: 107.5
Best 3 of 2015: 151 vs. Port, 141 vs. Fremantle, 136 vs. Melbourne
Last 3 against Collingwood: 120, 99, 83 (101 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 119, 120, 108 (116 avg)

Hannebery
2015 average: 110.7
Best 3 of 2015: 153 vs. Adelaide, 146 vs. Port, 143 vs. Bulldogs
Last 3 against Collingwood: 119, 93, 61 (91 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 117, 119, 153 (130 avg)

Pendlebury
2015 average: 111.1
Best 3 of 2015: 152 vs. Hawthorn, 142 vs. Geelong, 141 vs. Gold Coast
Last 3 against Sydney: 113, 152, 117 (127 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 113 (113 avg)

Boyd
2015 average: 104.4
Best 3 of 2015: 143 vs. Carlton, 129 vs. Collingwood, 127 vs. GWS
Last 3 against Fremantle: 99, 133, 155 (129 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 110, 96, 120 (109 avg)

Fyfe
2015 average: 105.1
Best 3 of 2015: 150 vs. Adelaide, 119 vs. Gold Coast, 116 vs. Geelong
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 109, 65, 101 (92 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 90, 109, 99 (99 avg)

Mundy
2015 average: 105.6
Best 3 of 2015: 151 vs. Geelong, 133 vs. Melbourne, 127 vs. St Kilda
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 67, 73, 70 (70 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 82, 127, 67 (92 avg)

Gray
2015 average: 96.8
Best 3 of 2015: 134 vs. West Coast, 122 vs. Fremantle, 121 vs. St Kilda
Last 3 against St Kilda: 121, 124, 81 (109 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 93, 82, 121 (99 avg)

Steven
2015 average: 111.7
Best 3 of 2015: 166 vs. West Coast, 142 vs. Essendon, 142 vs. Bulldogs
Last 3 against Port: 106, 101, 115 (107 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 106, 98, 98 (101 avg)

Armitage
2015 average: 107
Best 3 of 2015: 144 vs. Bulldogs, 143 vs. Collingwood, 140 vs. Essendon
Last 3 against Port: 77, 87, 55 (73 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 77, 108, 95 (93 avg)

Montagna
2015 average: 109
Best 3 of 2015: 155 vs. Fremantle, 140 vs. Melbourne, 124 vs. GWS
Last 3 against Port: 90, 66, 140 (99 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 90, 89, 66 (82 avg)

Priddis
2015 average: 103
Best 3 of 2015: 155 vs. Gold Coast, 142 vs. Sydney, 136 vs. Adelaide
Last 3 against Brisbane: 101, 83, 80 (88 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 129, 124, 70 (108 avg)

Rockliff
2015 average: 104.7
Best 3 of 2015: 159 vs. Hawthorn, 149 vs. Bulldogs, 143 vs. Carlton
Last 3 against West Coast: 66, 114, 73 (84 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 172, 80, 73 (108 avg)

S. Martin
2015 average: 114.1
Best 3 of 2015: 152 vs. Bulldogs, 151 vs. Adelaide, 138 vs. Gold Coast
Last 3 against West Coast: 119, 113, 62 (98 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 111, 56, 33 (67 avg)

Dangerfield
2015 average: 106.3
Best 3 of 2015: 147 vs. Fremantle, 142 vs. West Coast, 138 vs. Gold Coast
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 105, 105, 132 (114 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 108, 89, 74 (90 avg)

Selwood
2015 average: 97.8
Best 3 of 2015: 146 vs. Brisbane, 140 vs. Adelaide, 137 vs. Gold Coast
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 98, 76, 133 (102 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 57, 98, 117 (91 avg)

Lewis
2015 average: 110.7
Best 3 of 2015: 156 vs. Geelong, 152 vs. Bulldogs, 130 vs. Port
Last 3 against Geelong: 98, 156, 100 (118 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 110, 98, 109 (106 avg)

Hodge
2015 average: 111.1
Best 3 of 2015: 159 vs. Bulldogs, 148 vs. Fremantle, 140 vs. Carlton
Last 3 against Geelong: 109, 115, 103 (109 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 109, 104, 120 (111 avg)

The thoughts:

Cotchin
No reason to have him in your team based on last year's efforts and he's no good against the Blues. Pass. Prediction - 75

Ellis
If you're starting him as a roughie due to his good form vs. his first two opponents (look at those Pies numbers!) then it makes sense to give him the VC this week. Had 121 in the same fixture last year. Prediction - 110

Gibbs
If you believe this, then Gibbs is super underpriced and an awesome pickup. He scored 96 in this same fixture last year while under an injury cloud and had 133, 104, 147 in previous years. If you have him, you could do a lot worse than VC him. Prediction - 100

Murphy
Again, I can't see why you'd have him... but, for the sake of giving you VC options, here's another guy who might do just ok. Prediction - 95

Ward
Ward's pretty good against the Dees but not so good at the MCG. Take that to mean what you will, but I'd say it means he'll do just ok. Prediction - 90

Ablett
Watch out for the Crowley tag! But seriously, GAJ should kill it this week against an uncompetitive Essendon side. Your only fear is that he's still underdone from no preseason games. That said, his stretch of 119, 119, 176 before injury last year is enough for me to think he'll kill it. Prediction - 130

Goldstein
Goldy was huge last year and a regular captain option but he's consistently mediocre scores against the Crows (6 straight without a ton) have me passing on him this week. Prediction - 85

J.P. Kennedy
An interesting pick this week as he was good against the Pies last year, clearly plays well at the SCG, but probably won't be in many teams. Prediction - 110

Hannebery
Pretty similar to JPK in that he scored well against the Pies and loves the SCG. Might be in a few teams and definitely worth a look. Prediction - 115

Pendlebury
Consistently good against the Swans (although that's usually at their other, less fit for football, ground). What's not to like? Prediction - 120

Boyd
Really good history against the Dockers and not too shabby at home. Still, you'd be a brave person giving him the C. Prediction - 115

Fyfe
Scored pretty well against them last year but there's nothing here to say he'll be better than average. Prediction - 105

Mundy
Not good against the Doggies. Steer clear! Prediction - 70

Gray
This is Robbie we're talking about and, thanks to mid-only status, it's unlikely he's in any teams. In case he's your POD though, he's scorched the Saints for 120+ in his last two cracks and you could do a lot worse than giving him the C. Prediction - 115

Steven
Jack Steven was HUGE last year and, the fact that I think his 106 against the Power is a "poor showing" just cements that. Expect value from Steven with the C every week as he only dropped below 90 three times last year! Prediction - 115

Armitage
Armitage was almost as good as Steven last year but his bogey teams are stupidly clear to anyone that looks. One is Melbourne and the other? You guessed it! Port Adelaide. For some reason, he's 0/6 for tons in his career, averaging a dismal 62. Nope! Prediction - 75

Montagna
Not as bad as his team mate but the fantasy forward (how bloody good is that?) also doesn't like the Power. Otherwise, Montagna is also a reliable choice for regular C considerations. Prediction - 90

Priddis
Usually, a star like Priddis would love to beat up on a poor team like Brisbane (see Stevie J vs. Melbourne below) but it just isn't the case. I'd expect a ton on talent alone (plus, with all the injuries, the Eagles will need him to play well) but I can't bet on more. Prediction - 100

Rockliff
Very tough call here. The numbers look bad but they need a huge grain of salt. That 66? Right after his broken ribs when it was clear they were still bothering him. If healthy, Rocky's gotta be a lock for the C. The question we must ask is this... With a limited preseason, is Rocky ready to go? Prediction - 120

S. Martin
Worried about Rocky's fitness? Why not go the other Lion that can score really well and whose fitness isn't in doubt? Scored a handy 119 against the Eagles last year and should match it this time around. Prediction - 120

Dangerfield
You couldn't do it... could you? Danger loves playing the Hawks with 105, 105, 132, 145 in the last 3 years. He's also got the fight to be a big game player and Cats vs. Hawks is always a big one. I really wanna back him in for a big one here but it'd be very risky at a new home. Prediction - 120

Selwood
Joel used to be dominant against the Hawks but it's now only one ton in his last 6. My gut tells me that his new team mate should help his scoring but I'll wait and see before putting the C anywhere near him. Prediction - 100

Lewis
Fitness concerns surround Lewis and, because of that, I can't make him my number one this week. Considering his 156 against them last year, I was tempted! Will he even play? Prediction - 110

Hodge
Hodgey's consistently good but not standout great against the Cats. I'd say he's very safe if you're happy with 110 but I can't see him getting much more. Prediction - 110

LAHUG'S ROUGHIE OF THE WEEK!

In this segment, I'll talk about someone that, partly because of stats and mostly because of gut feeling, I think will go huge this week. It'll usually be somebody that you wouldn't usually give the C to but, if you have him and are feeling brave, might be worth a look.

Swan
2015 average: 110.1
Best 3 of 2015: 155 vs. Carlton, 144 vs. St Kilda, 139 vs. Sydney
Last 3 against Sydney: 139, 68, 94 (100 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 139 (139 avg)

You might count this as cheating because Swan was a perma-captain back in the day, but does anyone really have him in their team this year?? I'm picking this based on two things. 1. Swan will surely go huge at least a few times this year. 2. Sydney at the SCG was his third highest score last year, a nice 139! Gutsy prediction - 135

LAHUG'S POTATO FORECAST!

Basically, I'll highlight a premium that is probably in plenty of teams but is both down on form and has some terrible history against this week's opponent. Get ready for a shocker of a score!

D. Martin
2015 average: 103.6
Best 3 of 2015: 150 vs. West Coast, 142 vs. Fremantle, 140 vs. Gold Coast
Last 3 against Carlton: 65, 53, 89 (69 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 66, 126, 140 (111 avg)

Dusty absolutely stinks against the Blues but it's highly probable he'll start the year in many fantasy teams, giving him the honour of being the first spud forecasted for 2016. Don't let this stop you from starting him in your team (he'll make it up next week against the Pies) but don't put the C anywhere near him this week! Spudiction - 70

The verdict:
1.   Ablett (130)

2.   Pendlebury (120)
3.   Rockliff (120)
4.   S. Martin (120)
5.   Dangerfield (120)

For VCs, I would go Ellis, Gibbs, Dusty, in that order.

Requests:

S.Mitchell   - Requested by chief007, LF
2015 average: 103.7   
Best 3 of 2015: 142 vs. Fremantle, 130 vs. North, 124 vs. Carlton   
Last 3 against Geelong: 110, 76, 116 (101 avg)   
Last 3 at MCG: 115, 110, 83 (103 avg)   

There's no doubting that Mitchell is a dominant force in the AFL and still one of the game's best. He's scored 13 tons in his last 21 against the Cats (that's a bloody long time) and he's 5/8 in the last three years. All five ot thos are 110+ (in fact, his last 10 tons against the Cats have all reached the 110 mark). He's too risky with me as he won't necessarily dominant if his team doesn't need him to. I'd assume against this Cat's outfit, he'll do everything he can, but it's still a big risk. Prediction - 110

Neale   - Requested by LF
2015 average: 101.6   
Best 3 of 2015: 162 vs. West Coast, 151 vs. North, 147 vs. GWS   
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 102, 82 (92 avg)   
Last 3 at Etihad: 97, 112, 102 (104 avg)   

Neale can score very big; I'm not disputing that. The problem is that, even with these big scores, his season average was only just over 100 last year... meaning low scores too! No sub vest to hurt him like it has in the past (although that wasn't really a thing last year anyway). The good news here is that he did ton up against the Dogs last year and averaged a nice 104 at Etihad. Prediction - 105

Wines
2015 average: 92.6
Best 3 of 2015: 136 vs. Collingwood, 131 vs. Fremantle, 115 vs. Bulldogs
Last 3 against St Kilda: 11, 85, 34 (43 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 11, 73, 136 (73 avg)

Pro: I already had this request in my spreadsheet. Con: I didn't write about him in the main writeup because I didn't know what to say. Obviously, he was injured last year so only scored 11. 85 in 2014 is hard to judge because it was only his second year and then, of course, the 34 before that was rookie year. In other words, there's no real history to go by. He has scored well at home with 3 tons from 6 cracks (if you exclude the 11) at AO last year. Really could do anything but, unless he's improved more than usual over the offseason, I wouldn't bank on a captain-worthy score. Prediction - 100



I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
Please follow this link: https://my-own-way-2016.everydayhero.com/au/william-huggett

[Bill Manspeaker]

great work Huggy! always appreciate the effort you put in to this. gonna VC Gibbsy and if that fails the C goes to Gablett (accidently voted 'not loopholing')

[LaHug]

great work Huggy! always appreciate the effort you put in to this. gonna VC Gibbsy and if that fails the C goes to Gablett (accidently voted 'not loopholing')

Just turned on "allow users to change vote" :)

[LF]

Steven was basically my perma captain last year
Not sure I will be loopholing as I am not likely to be starting anyone of significance from these teams at this stage

Good to see you back Huggy and great work as usual

[LaHug]

Steven was basically my perma captain last year
Not sure I will be loopholing as I am not likely to be starting anyone of significance from these teams at this stage

Good to see you back Huggy and great work as usual

I'm sure it won't take long for him to hit this list (in fact, if any of the 5 aren't named, he slots into 5th) but he's just not as good against the Power as he is against other teams.

[Bill Manspeaker]

great work Huggy! always appreciate the effort you put in to this. gonna VC Gibbsy and if that fails the C goes to Gablett (accidently voted 'not loopholing')

Just turned on "allow users to change vote" :)

sweeet cheers  8)

[Jukes]

Just pointing something out - last year for round one you also predicted Ablett would score 130

He came mightily close...to scoring half of that (despite 94% TOG)



Tossing up between Rocky and Stef this week...I love Stef but I'm just so used to giving the C to a midfielder!

Oh, and what everybody else said - good as always!

[LaHug]

I blame the fact that the Dees somehow beat the Suns (comfortably too). I can't see the Bombers doing the same...

[Thunderbolts]

Awesome article and great to have you back again for another year!!  8)

[nrich102]

Aw yis LH!

Big Stef is my captain, not sure who I'll loophole tho.

[Ringo]

Thinking Gazz into Stef provided I have a loophole.

And great work as others have said.

[Ricochet]

Nice work as always LH!

Gibbs and DMarting my only VC options at this stage

[Jukes]

I blame the fact that the Dees somehow beat the Suns (comfortably too). I can't see the Bombers doing the same...

I seem to remember GAJ-lovers preaching that just because the suns would get smashed every week (back in like ~2011) that he'd still be a good pick...get your story straight guys  ;D

[pommyadam]

a slight thing to notice is that last year when Shiels was affected (his 4 missed games, plus his rd1 early sub)
Lewis averaged 138

[Rusty00]

a slight thing to notice is that last year when Shiels was affected (his 4 missed games, plus his rd1 early sub)
Lewis averaged 138

Interesting little stat there ;)

He has been under an injury cloud himself though.