Cripps

[Gigantor]

I'll declare up front I'm a Blues supporter.

I currently have M. Crouch at M5 (Libba @ M6; Mills @ M7). I'm going for M. over B. Crouch because I need to place my trust in the body above my hope in the ceiling.

Therefore... M. Crouch or N. Graham?

Feels like a marginal call.

Adelaide will win more games than the Blues, but Graham is a bigger fish in a smaller pond. Am I wrong in predicting Graham will average low 100s this year, whereas M. Crouch will more than likely be a 95 - 100 player? Either way, both players will end up being a 1-trade sideways move to a fallen premium. Which is more optimal?

Of course, we wouldn't be having this conversation if B. Crouch had played just 1 NAB game pre Rd 1.

Last year the Blues only had 7 players over 85

1 100+
2 90-100
4 85-90

Not confident any Carlton mid will reach keeper level this year, maybe Murph if he can go 105+

[Colley Dogs]

I'll declare up front I'm a Blues supporter.

I currently have M. Crouch at M5 (Libba @ M6; Mills @ M7). I'm going for M. over B. Crouch because I need to place my trust in the body above my hope in the ceiling.

Therefore... M. Crouch or N. Graham?

Feels like a marginal call.

Adelaide will win more games than the Blues, but Graham is a bigger fish in a smaller pond. Am I wrong in predicting Graham will average low 100s this year, whereas M. Crouch will more than likely be a 95 - 100 player? Either way, both players will end up being a 1-trade sideways move to a fallen premium. Which is more optimal?

Of course, we wouldn't be having this conversation if B. Crouch had played just 1 NAB game pre Rd 1.

Last year the Blues only had 7 players over 85

1 100+
2 90-100
4 85-90

Not confident any Carlton mid will reach keeper level this year, maybe Murph if he can go 105+

Nothing is forever.

[Gigantor]

So I'm going to retract my stat about Carlton only having 7 players 85+ last year as I dug around and West Coast and Freo both only had 6 players over 85  :o

I stand by my comment about no Carlton mid reaching keeper status excpet maybe Murph

[Colley Dogs]

So I'm going to retract my stat about Carlton only having 7 players 85+ last year as I dug around and West Coast and Freo both only had 6 players over 85  :o

I stand by my comment about no Carlton mid reaching keeper status excpet maybe Murph

Serious question: does N. Graham - or for that matter M. Crouch, Libba, or B. Crouch - have to be keepers in order to justify their selection? In my opinion, a 450K+ player needs to be a keeper, whereas a 300K - 400K mid-pricer needs to rise enough be a one trade sideways swap to a fallen ultra-premium, or in the best case scenario slip down to M9 as premium midfield bench cover, whilst in the short term contributing 95 - 105 points, depending.

My query is over whether M. Crouch or N.Graham provide the same potential, considering the cheaper, higher ceiling, B. Crouch, has unexposed form.

Like everyone, I have Libba. But I'm looking for one more... and I think N. Graham is a real option.

[Mat0369]

I'd rather Daisy Thomas and his 9 clangers. That guy is a superstar. He is going to average 130 this year!

[Mat0369]

Serious question: does N. Graham - or for that matter M. Crouch, Libba, or B. Crouch - have to be keepers in order to justify their selection? In my opinion, a 450K+ player needs to be a keeper, whereas a 300K - 400K mid-pricer needs to rise enough be a one trade sideways swap to a fallen ultra-premium, or in the best case scenario slip down to M9 as premium midfield bench cover, whilst in the short term contributing 95 - 105 points, depending.

My query is over whether M. Crouch or N.Graham provide the same potential, considering the cheaper (higher ceiling B. Crouch) has unexposed form.

Like everyone, I have Libba. But I'm looking for one more. And I think N. Graham is a real option.

I don't think you can group Brad with the other 3 because of the difference in price tag.

If I had to rank them it would be like this

Libba, Graham, Matt Crouch. My reasons are as follows

Libba has a proven premium season and is much cheaper then Graham who is almost 400k. He is likely to have the highest floor of the 3 guys you mentioned, so even if you have to use him as a stepping stone his ability to generate cash will be higher then the other two.

Graham has a higher ceiling and if he was 50k cheaper I would lock him in, unfortunately he isn't but if Brad doesn't line up round 1 I am trying to swindle the funds to potentially bring in Graham.

Crouch should be an ok pick as well, I think he 100% has to be viewed as a stepping stone and Adelaide apparently have a tough opening draw.

[Gigantor]

M Crouch and Graham are in that awkward price range, I feel they need to become keepers to be worth it

If Graham averages 95 he might make you 90-100k by round 10, if that drops to 85 he might make 30 k. So for me I would only pick a 390K player if I believed he was going to become a keeper.

If there was no Libba this year I would think about taking a punt.

[Colley Dogs]

Serious question: does N. Graham - or for that matter M. Crouch, Libba, or B. Crouch - have to be keepers in order to justify their selection? In my opinion, a 450K+ player needs to be a keeper, whereas a 300K - 400K mid-pricer needs to rise enough be a one trade sideways swap to a fallen ultra-premium, or in the best case scenario slip down to M9 as premium midfield bench cover, whilst in the short term contributing 95 - 105 points, depending.

My query is over whether M. Crouch or N.Graham provide the same potential, considering the cheaper (higher ceiling B. Crouch) has unexposed form.

Like everyone, I have Libba. But I'm looking for one more. And I think N. Graham is a real option.

I don't think you can group Brad with the other 3 because of the difference in price tag.

If I had to rank them it would be like this

Libba, Graham, Matt Crouch. My reasons are as follows

Libba has a proven premium season and is much cheaper then Graham who is almost 400k. He is likely to have the highest floor of the 3 guys you mentioned, so even if you have to use him as a stepping stone his ability to generate cash will be higher then the other two.

Graham has a higher ceiling and if he was 50k cheaper I would lock him in, unfortunately he isn't but if Brad doesn't line up round 1 I am trying to swindle the funds to potentially bring in Graham.

Crouch should be an ok pick as well, I think he 100% has to be viewed as a stepping stone and Adelaide apparently have a tough opening draw.

Because of the reasons you've stated, without even a second's thought I take Libba over everyone else below 500K. But.... I need one more. And with B. Crouch being irritatingly naughty this week, were you to have the money, who would you take: M. Crouch or N. Graham?

[Colley Dogs]

M Crouch and Graham are in that awkward price range, I feel they need to become keepers to be worth it

If Graham averages 95 he might make you 90-100k by round 10, if that drops to 85 he might make 30 k. So for me I would only pick a 390K player if I believed he was going to become a keeper.

If there was no Libba this year I would think about taking a punt.

It's an interesting point. I need to think about this. I don't believe he would drop below 90. I believe he (and M. Crouch and B. Crouch for that matter) need to average 100 flat minimum (540K) to justify their section. Anything less would be a fail. They don't need to be Keepers, but rather a 1-trade sideways move to a fallen ultra-premium or a premium bench M9 bench warmer. Different approaches, I guess.

I agree with you in that if they must be Keepers, I wouldn't consider either of them.

[Mat0369]

I'm still going with Brad Crouch. He's playing some level of football this week, of he is named round 1 start him.

[Gigantor]

M Crouch and Graham are in that awkward price range, I feel they need to become keepers to be worth it

If Graham averages 95 he might make you 90-100k by round 10, if that drops to 85 he might make 30 k. So for me I would only pick a 390K player if I believed he was going to become a keeper.

If there was no Libba this year I would think about taking a punt.

It's an interesting point. I need to think about this. I don't believe he would drop below 90. I believe he (and M. Crouch and B. Crouch for that matter) need to average 100 flat minimum (540K) to justify their section. Anything less would be a fail. They don't need to be Keepers, but rather a 1-trade sideways move to a fallen ultra-premium or a premium bench M9 bench warmer. Different approaches, I guess.

I agree with you in that if my thinking was they needed to be Keepers, I wouldn't consider either of them.

During the year a 100 average won't equal a 540K price tag. At the start of the year the magic number they use to calculate price is a lot higher than the numbers they use during the year

Start of the year is around 5400, during the year it fluctuates but averages around 5000, so a 100 average will settle on 500k.

So for Graham that only equals a 110k increase, if he drops closer to 90 you are starting to get into pretty small numbers

If you think he can go 100+ then pick him, if you have any doubts go someone cheaper like Mills if you dont have him already.

[Colley Dogs]

I'm still going with Brad Crouch. He's playing some level of football this week, of he is named round 1 start him.

Last year I burnt 11 trades on Ablett, Rockliff, and Sloane (after starting them, and then buying them back into my team after each time they returned from injury).

Anyone can get injured at anytime... I respect that. We all spend 8-12 our trades on injuries. But not on 3 players! My rule this year is to not have any player in my side that has not played at least 1 NAB game. Therefore.... Dangers instead of Ablett; Hanners instead of Rocckliff; & either M. Crouch or N. Graham instead of B. Crouch.

Believe me... I would rather Ablett, Rockliff, and B. Crouch. The cash I would have left over would solve many other issues. But I want 21 games from my starters, and I'm not convinced. And as Einstein said, 'Insanity is doing the same thing over and over, and expecting a different result.'

[Colley Dogs]

M Crouch and Graham are in that awkward price range, I feel they need to become keepers to be worth it

If Graham averages 95 he might make you 90-100k by round 10, if that drops to 85 he might make 30 k. So for me I would only pick a 390K player if I believed he was going to become a keeper.

If there was no Libba this year I would think about taking a punt.

It's an interesting point. I need to think about this. I don't believe he would drop below 90. I believe he (and M. Crouch and B. Crouch for that matter) need to average 100 flat minimum (540K) to justify their section. Anything less would be a fail. They don't need to be Keepers, but rather a 1-trade sideways move to a fallen ultra-premium or a premium bench M9 bench warmer. Different approaches, I guess.

I agree with you in that if my thinking was they needed to be Keepers, I wouldn't consider either of them.

During the year a 100 average won't equal a 540K price tag. At the start of the year the magic number they use to calculate price is a lot higher than the numbers they use during the year

Start of the year is around 5400, during the year it fluctuates but averages around 5000, so a 100 average will settle on 500k.

So for Graham that only equals a 110k increase, if he drops closer to 90 you are starting to get into pretty small numbers

If you think he can go 100+ then pick him, if you have any doubts go someone cheaper like Mills if you dont have him already.

Thanks for the clarification, Gigantor. I've been playing for many years but never realised that. I'm not an analytics person. I use these numbers as a general litmus rather than a hard-and-fast rule. I'm just tying to figure which of M. Crouch & N. Graham has more potential of averaging 100 through the home-and-away season. I think it's marginal, and being a Carlton fan would prefer to have the Blue (at the moment I have the Crow :) )

[Mat0369]

Just for reference, I don't think Wingard played any NAB games last year and he played the whole season and averaged close to 100. Word with Chad was he wouldn't be ready for a few months but I get your point. Rocky had broken ribs last year that he tried to come back from early. He should be good to go this year, I think there is more risk starting without him then there is having guys like him and Gaz in your team. You're talking about top 5 SC players here. Crouch is on a different level and I can understand approaching him with caution.

One rule I generally have is if I trade a guy out I don't trade him back in, that generally stops this from happening. I broke it last year, traded Gaz in after round 1 for Sidey (injured) after I got sucked in by his good record vs his opponent and the fact even though he looked in pain he scored well and got through. Mistake and I regretted it the very next round and went point chasing which cost me my season and had me on the injury merry go round.

I think if it came down to it and you didn't want to take the risk with all 3, I would downgrade Crouch and grab Mills. If Crouch was you M7, play Mills there and Kerridge at M8. Use the cash to fill out your team elsewhere or keep it handy in the bank in case you feel like taking the risk later.

[Mat0369]

And on Cripps, I won't really consider him as a SC option until he adds the ability to play as a forward to his game. If he can go forward and take a grab it could see him push the mantle for best mid in the comp. Once I start to see glimpses of that I will be all over him, but he is in his third year so he will eventually add a few more strings to his bow in the coming seasons.