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Shannon Hurn

Started by BomberSam, March 07, 2016, 09:55:59 PM

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RaisyDaisy

Quote from: Spite on March 08, 2016, 08:21:42 PM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 08, 2016, 08:13:25 PM
Averaged over 90 (91) once in the past 6 years

Why is he a good pick now?

Because he has averaged above 90 twice in the past 7 years and the other years look like this; 85,82,91,88,87 and then 76. So he's about 10 ppg under priced and has been consistent in the past with scores suitable for that of a D5/D6.

I feel like you know this since you looked up his past averages?

I do, and none of those averages are good enough for a starting 6 spot. Averaging 90 or below (which is most likely) is not top 15 let alone 6-10

Bully

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 08, 2016, 08:24:09 PM
Quote from: Spite on March 08, 2016, 08:21:42 PM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 08, 2016, 08:13:25 PM
Averaged over 90 (91) once in the past 6 years

Why is he a good pick now?

Because he has averaged above 90 twice in the past 7 years and the other years look like this; 85,82,91,88,87 and then 76. So he's about 10 ppg under priced and has been consistent in the past with scores suitable for that of a D5/D6.

I feel like you know this since you looked up his past averages?

I do, and none of those averages are good enough for a starting 6 spot. Averaging 90 or below (which is most likely) is not top 15 let alone 6-10

It's passable for D6 provided they play every game, Hurn however isn't the most durable player.

RaisyDaisy

Don't get me wrong, it's serviceable at D6

Aim higher though. He won't be top 10 so you're behind

Spite

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 08, 2016, 08:24:09 PM
Quote from: Spite on March 08, 2016, 08:21:42 PM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 08, 2016, 08:13:25 PM
Averaged over 90 (91) once in the past 6 years

Why is he a good pick now?

Because he has averaged above 90 twice in the past 7 years and the other years look like this; 85,82,91,88,87 and then 76. So he's about 10 ppg under priced and has been consistent in the past with scores suitable for that of a D5/D6.

I feel like you know this since you looked up his past averages?

I do, and none of those averages are good enough for a starting 6 spot. Averaging 90 or below (which is most likely) is not top 15 let alone 6-10

There were 12 people that averaged above 90 as defenders last year, including Roberton. Then there are a few who you wouldn't get because they will miss quite a few games which leaves about 7-10 realistic options above 90.

The 18th best backman averaged 86.17 so that means Hurn should be around there. There were only 6 players that went between 86.17 and 89.36.

Chances are, you'll have at least 1 player from that second group of 6 players. So my question is why can't that someone be Hurn? You'd be leaking less than 1 point per week and save a lot of starting money.

Between the 8 or so realistic options above 90 and a player from that second group, it puts Hurn borderline top 10 defender for only 409k. Feel free to pay 70k more for Mackie (who is also in that bracket) but I'll use that money to get myself Fyfe over Gray.

Ideally I would like to get all top 6 backman, but it's not going to happen.

GoLions

Also, if he stays fit all year, pretty sure a few of those averages are like mid 90s uninjured, so has potential to be right up there with the best.

In saying that, I don't think I'll start him. Have considered him quite a number of times though.

Keeper27

Quote from: Spite on March 08, 2016, 08:34:59 PM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 08, 2016, 08:24:09 PM
Quote from: Spite on March 08, 2016, 08:21:42 PM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 08, 2016, 08:13:25 PM
Averaged over 90 (91) once in the past 6 years

Why is he a good pick now?

Because he has averaged above 90 twice in the past 7 years and the other years look like this; 85,82,91,88,87 and then 76. So he's about 10 ppg under priced and has been consistent in the past with scores suitable for that of a D5/D6.

I feel like you know this since you looked up his past averages?

I do, and none of those averages are good enough for a starting 6 spot. Averaging 90 or below (which is most likely) is not top 15 let alone 6-10

There were 12 people that averaged above 90 as defenders last year, including Roberton. Then there are a few who you wouldn't get because they will miss quite a few games which leaves about 7-10 realistic options above 90.

The 18th best backman averaged 86.17 so that means Hurn should be around there. There were only 6 players that went between 86.17 and 89.36.

Chances are, you'll have at least 1 player from that second group of 6 players. So my question is why can't that someone be Hurn? You'd be leaking less than 1 point per week and save a lot of starting money.

Between the 8 or so realistic options above 90 and a player from that second group, it puts Hurn borderline top 10 defender for only 409k. Feel free to pay 70k more for Mackie (who is also in that bracket) but I'll use that money to get myself Fyfe over Gray.

Ideally I would like to get all top 6 backman, but it's not going to happen.

TBH I think that is the main problem with a lot of coaches.
They aren't being realistic with the players they'll finish with and what they'll avg
Sure it's fun to guess what certain players will avg but a bit of realism needs to be taken into account.

No one will finish their team with all the top players.

DEF - 1 maybe 2 100+ players the rest will be 80-95
MID - 4 maybe 5 115+ players. The rest will be 95-105
RUC - 2 100+ players
FWD - 2 maybe 3 100+ players the rest will be 85-95

That's what most teams will look like come seasons end

RaisyDaisy

Quote from: Keeper27 on March 08, 2016, 09:44:00 PM
TBH I think that is the main problem with a lot of coaches.
They aren't being realistic with the players they'll finish with and what they'll avg
Sure it's fun to guess what certain players will avg but a bit of realism needs to be taken into account.

No one will finish their team with all the top players.

DEF - 1 maybe 2 100+ players the rest will be 80-95
MID - 4 maybe 5 115+ players. The rest will be 95-105
RUC - 2 100+ players
FWD - 2 maybe 3 100+ players the rest will be 85-95

That's what most teams will look like come seasons end

Yes of course we don't end up with the best of the best, and like I said earlier he is a fine pick for D6, but I'm not looking to start D6 now - I'd rather start better scoring players and as the season goes on and we start to see how things pan out we can usually grab a bottomed out defender (due to most of them being inconsistent) or take a shot on a cheaper break out candidate

Keeper27

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 08, 2016, 09:49:21 PMI'd rather start better scoring players and as the season goes on and we start to see how things pan out

thats fair enough, i wish i could start with a Shaw/laird, but decided to go with Houli and cheaper break out candidates in D2-D5 so i can get my 5 super mids, hopefully my cheaper break out candidates can go 80-85.

anyways deviating from the subject matter, Hurn is a great option for D3-D6 come seasons end, can he get back to 90s?? maybe, more likely mid-high 80s.

Ricochet

Quote from: Spite on March 08, 2016, 08:34:59 PM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 08, 2016, 08:24:09 PM
Quote from: Spite on March 08, 2016, 08:21:42 PM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 08, 2016, 08:13:25 PM
Averaged over 90 (91) once in the past 6 years

Why is he a good pick now?

Because he has averaged above 90 twice in the past 7 years and the other years look like this; 85,82,91,88,87 and then 76. So he's about 10 ppg under priced and has been consistent in the past with scores suitable for that of a D5/D6.

I feel like you know this since you looked up his past averages?

I do, and none of those averages are good enough for a starting 6 spot. Averaging 90 or below (which is most likely) is not top 15 let alone 6-10

There were 12 people that averaged above 90 as defenders last year, including Roberton. Then there are a few who you wouldn't get because they will miss quite a few games which leaves about 7-10 realistic options above 90.

The 18th best backman averaged 86.17 so that means Hurn should be around there. There were only 6 players that went between 86.17 and 89.36.

Chances are, you'll have at least 1 player from that second group of 6 players. So my question is why can't that someone be Hurn? You'd be leaking less than 1 point per week and save a lot of starting money.

Between the 8 or so realistic options above 90 and a player from that second group, it puts Hurn borderline top 10 defender for only 409k. Feel free to pay 70k more for Mackie (who is also in that bracket) but I'll use that money to get myself Fyfe over Gray.

Ideally I would like to get all top 6 backman, but it's not going to happen.
Exactly, well said.

Its been said countless times how hard its been to identify the top backs..
Mainly because we expect a lot in that top 10 to drop a little or miss games. But we don't pick the Hurn type because they won't be top 10?

And yeh he might only be D6 at the end of the year... but the reason you would start him is because he is 10pts underpriced. With the potential to go higher

RaisyDaisy

Like I've said numerous times now, he's a good D6 option but I just think there are better options

Why not pick Sheridan, Lonergan or T McKenzie? All much cheaper and just as good a chance to average the same as Hurn

Ricochet

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 09, 2016, 09:07:33 AM
Like I've said numerous times now, he's a good D6 option but I just think there are better options

Why not pick Sheridan, Lonergan or T McKenzie? All much cheaper and just as good a chance to average the same as Hurn
No you didn't, you said he wasn't good enough for a starting 6 spot?? ???
Its ok though your allowed to have a different opinion, we just think he's a decent pick.

And because he has greater scoring history over those guys

Holz

Quote from: Ricochet on March 09, 2016, 10:03:54 AM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 09, 2016, 09:07:33 AM
Like I've said numerous times now, he's a good D6 option but I just think there are better options

Why not pick Sheridan, Lonergan or T McKenzie? All much cheaper and just as good a chance to average the same as Hurn
No you didn't, you said he wasn't good enough for a starting 6 spot?? ???
Its ok though your allowed to have a different opinion, we just think he's a decent pick.

And because he has greater scoring history over those guys

Your right rico but in RDs defence if you pick lonergan at 330k then you can use him as a stepping stone which is what I will be doing. Lonergan for the first 9-9 weeks hopefully he gives me 85 then when swallow jom start coming back I can use two trades to turn him into heater.

Ricochet

#27
Quote from: Holz on March 09, 2016, 10:12:41 AM
Quote from: Ricochet on March 09, 2016, 10:03:54 AM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 09, 2016, 09:07:33 AM
Like I've said numerous times now, he's a good D6 option but I just think there are better options

Why not pick Sheridan, Lonergan or T McKenzie? All much cheaper and just as good a chance to average the same as Hurn
No you didn't, you said he wasn't good enough for a starting 6 spot?? ???
Its ok though your allowed to have a different opinion, we just think he's a decent pick.

And because he has greater scoring history over those guys

Your right rico but in RDs defence if you pick lonergan at 330k then you can use him as a stepping stone which is what I will be doing. Lonergan for the first 9-9 weeks hopefully he gives me 85 then when swallow jom start coming back I can use two trades to turn him into heater.
Yeh thats cool, we were talking about hurn as a keeper so talking about stepping stones is a slightly different convo.

On Lonergan, i don't mind him but im not sure he will go that 90 mark. And even less confidence in the other two RD mentioned. That's why I'd prefer Hurn/Rich. But he is tempting as that stepping stone pick

Holz

Quote from: Ricochet on March 09, 2016, 10:47:26 AM
Quote from: Holz on March 09, 2016, 10:12:41 AM
Quote from: Ricochet on March 09, 2016, 10:03:54 AM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 09, 2016, 09:07:33 AM
Like I've said numerous times now, he's a good D6 option but I just think there are better options

Why not pick Sheridan, Lonergan or T McKenzie? All much cheaper and just as good a chance to average the same as Hurn
No you didn't, you said he wasn't good enough for a starting 6 spot?? ???
Its ok though your allowed to have a different opinion, we just think he's a decent pick.

And because he has greater scoring history over those guys

Your right rico but in RDs defence if you pick lonergan at 330k then you can use him as a stepping stone which is what I will be doing. Lonergan for the first 9-9 weeks hopefully he gives me 85 then when swallow jom start coming back I can use two trades to turn him into heater.
Yeh thats cool, we were talking about hurn as a keeper so talking about stepping stones is a slightly different convo.

On Lonergan, i don't mind him but im not sure he will go that 90 mark. That's why I'd prefer Hurn/Rich. But he is tempting as that stepping stone pick

yep certinaly no keeper when the gc mid brigade comes back but people are talking about hall who is much pricier.

All i need from lonergan is 85 go up to 400k then i downgrade a rookie pocket 150k and then pick up the best defeneder for 550k.

Keeper27

Quote from: Holz on March 09, 2016, 10:50:35 AM
All i need from lonergan is 85 go up to 400k then i downgrade a rookie pocket 150k and then pick up the best defeneder for 550k.

This. and i really do think we will get it too.