Mills

[Bully]

you just 'fudged' the facts to support your arguments you cant take out injury affected games as they are very likely for rookies

Why not? The point is Mills is a more complete package than Heeney at the same age, therefore there's no reason that he can't average 80+ and play from round 1

Many had Heeney as the true number 1 pick in his draft year, I also think he's a little bit more dynamic than Mills. In any case, scoring 80+ will require a season similar to the top rebounding flankers, with McVeigh coming back I just can't see it. Best case scenario is he scores a few early tons similar to Vlastuin and pushes his price to 400k. The odds of that are still fairly remote. 

[SydneyRox]

i will preface what i am about to say with i havent had the chance to watch the game.

Heeney and Mills are different players. heeney is a fantastic lead and really good mark for his size, so playing a more fwd role was always going to be his early years and injuries were always going to be an issue trying to take the step up to afl.

Mills is more of a genuine mid that goes and gets his own ball. The issue is that like Mitchell (and now including Titch) the Swans are full of in and under ball getters, so I wouldnt think he plays that role for a few years while his body adjusts, so a role in defence will be his for the taking, getting a run in the mids from time to time, but dont doubt Mills will get a run every week and play a role from round 1 and unless he gets injured or struggles he could play 18-20 games this year.

However as guys like Capper and I say often this time of year you cant trust the role you think they will play in the swans team, Horse could give him a mid tagging role, cant see him getting a defensive role in the back six since we already have Smith.
I will most likely start Mills, but mostly cos I am a one eyed Swans supporter....still think he will be a solid cash cow

[Gigantor]

If Mills was in a bottom 8 side he would be a lock but in a top 6 side he has some competition

If you look at last year the only 200k+ genuine first year rookie that was worth it was Brayshaw. Averaged 75 at the byes and was worth 411K and he only got that high because he average 97 from rds 9-12

And lets be honest 2015 Melbourne was a hell of a lot weaker that the 2016 Swans will be

[timtim]

I'm going Mills, Simpkin and maybe even Hopper

If Mills can push a 65-70 ave he'll make ~160k

Just not sure there are enough rookie MID locks at this stage (already have Gresham and Mathison).... NAB 2 and 3 will probably through it all out the window though

[H1bb3i2d]

you just 'fudged' the facts to support your arguments you cant take out injury affected games as they are very likely for rookies

Why not? The point is Mills is a more complete package than Heeney at the same age, therefore there's no reason that he can't average 80+ and play from round 1

Many had Heeney as the true number 1 pick in his draft year, I also think he's a little bit more dynamic than Mills. In any case, scoring 80+ will require a season similar to the top rebounding flankers, with McVeigh coming back I just can't see it. Best case scenario is he scores a few early tons similar to Vlastuin and pushes his price to 400k. The odds of that are still fairly remote.

Let's be honest, it's not a hard position to find the ball. I'm thinking more a Heppell's first year myself  ::)

But it'll completely depend on available rookies. I'm no fan of paying $200k for a rookie either, but if he does turn out to be a desperate option he should be a more reliable scorer at M6/7/8 than the $117k guys with half the ability.

[Bully]

you just 'fudged' the facts to support your arguments you cant take out injury affected games as they are very likely for rookies

Why not? The point is Mills is a more complete package than Heeney at the same age, therefore there's no reason that he can't average 80+ and play from round 1

Many had Heeney as the true number 1 pick in his draft year, I also think he's a little bit more dynamic than Mills. In any case, scoring 80+ will require a season similar to the top rebounding flankers, with McVeigh coming back I just can't see it. Best case scenario is he scores a few early tons similar to Vlastuin and pushes his price to 400k. The odds of that are still fairly remote.

Let's be honest, it's not a hard position to find the ball. I'm thinking more a Heppell's first year myself  ::)

But it'll completely depend on available rookies. I'm no fan of paying $200k for a rookie either, but if he does turn out to be a desperate option he should be a more reliable scorer at M6/7/8 than the $117k guys with half the ability.

Vlastuin would have made more dough than Heppell, he scored 105, 141, 87 & 108 in a red hot patch of form, just in time for culling. Heppell averaged 83 and won the Rising Star, Deledio averaged 75 and won the Rising Star - will Mills be somewhere in between? Who knows but even at 80 he isn't going to make as much money as some of the cheaper rookies.

For me to field a rookie at M8 I want a bonafide midlfielder, if none emerge then I will default to plan B and play Crouch there.

[AaronKirk]

Mills is in my team for now. He was very encouraging on the weekend and there are not a lot of obvious midfielders jumping off the page to be selected.

A flat 80 average (which is achievable) gets him to 383,945 according to the Too Serious calculator at the bye round.

A 70 average which is more realistic gets him to 338,237 at the swans bye.

He needs to get to 75+ to be a worthwhile pick for cash generation.

There is no doubt IMO he will play round 1. There is a void there off the half back line with the retirement of Shaw and the trade of Jetta to the Eagles.

He also rotated through the mids at times and his ball use was excellent.

The Swans rate him very highly and will get every chance to play. Another 2 performances like NAB 1 and he won't be leaving my side unless he is not picked round 1.

[NickyBoy]

Mills is in my team for now. He was very encouraging on the weekend and there are not a lot of obvious midfielders jumping off the page to be selected.

A flat 80 average (which is achievable) gets him to 383,945 according to the Too Serious calculator at the bye round.

A 70 average which is more realistic gets him to 338,237 at the swans bye.

He needs to get to 75+ to be a worthwhile pick for cash generation.

There is no doubt IMO he will play round 1. There is a void there off the half back line with the retirement of Shaw and the trade of Jetta to the Eagles.

He also rotated through the mids at times and his ball use was excellent.

The Swans rate him very highly and will get every chance to play. Another 2 performances like NAB 1 and he won't be leaving my side unless he is not picked round 1.

I traded mills out but after reading this, i'm very tempted to get him back

[RaisyDaisy]

I wouldn't focus too much on what calculators predict. That's off the assumption he comes out and scores exactly that score every week

Just takes one or two above par scores or stinkers to get things going or halting

More than confident that 3-4 good cheap mid rookies line up rd1 for me, therefore not needing someone like Mills

[sammy123]

in my team at the moment. if he plays the shaw role will score well

[Holz]

he doesnt need to average 80+ to be a good pick.

somebody please give me 5 players sub 150k who will score 70+

If we look at some of the expensive rookies of the past (and take out the sub scores)

Brayshaw 67 77 64 47 76 107 91 78 112
Billings 107 72 50 70 66 33 67 132
Bont 47 58 63 58 91 91 139 111
Wines 125 51 121 91 82 74 61 75 77

from that it certainly looks like they hit a purple patch at some stage. All 4 guys were highly rated fantasy players before the season started.

their certainly will be 2-3 cheap guys who will go 65-70 but i dont see 5. We dont need 200+ guys to average 80 for the season as you are not keeping them for the season.

Brayshaw averaged 69.4 unsubbed for the season which you would call a failure. But looking at the scores above (and from a braysahw owner) I was very very happy with him.

I picked up some omnster scores from him and I forget what i sold him for but it must have been 350k+

[RaisyDaisy]

If you're fielding 2-3 mid rookies than I can understand why you would want to pick Mills

With Libba and Crouch as well as a few others this year I think fielding 1-2 rookies is the way to go, stacking the mids and with that being the case I have no desire to start Mills

[Holz]

If you're fielding 2-3 mid rookies than I can understand why you would want to pick Mills

With Libba and Crouch as well as a few others this year I think fielding 1-2 rookies is the way to go, stacking the mids and with that being the case I have no desire to start Mills

its also cash aswell. I might actually be sticking a 200k guy on my bench as i dont see 5 mids who can make me money.

I also might actually start petrecca so i can use him as a mid loophole guy.

for example Mills Hopper Parish. I get a double chance by sticking one on the bench each week given dees start late.

Just something im thinking off.

120k guys dont make cash not playing.

who are these 5 sub 150k guys?

[Ringo]

who are these 5 sub 150k guys?

No one will know till teams announced Holz but there are a few to keep an eye on McPherson, Matthieson, Gresham at $144k,  Marcon, Petracca, Kerridge and Dunkley.

In saying that I currently have Mills at M7

[Holz]

who are these 5 sub 150k guys?

No one will know till teams announced Holz but there are a few to keep an eye on McPherson, Matthieson, Gresham at $144k,  Marcon, Petracca, Kerridge and Dunkley.

In saying that I currently have Mills at M7

till then Mills is a good pick.

people are saying he isnt and really he is a good pick untill others pop up.