Heath Shaw

[quinny88]

Don't forget that his 2 low scores in 2014 came when he got KO'd against Sydney early and against Richmond he had to play full back on Jack Riewoldt when he kicked 10 goals and they lost by 100+Mid you take those out he averaged 100
GWS won't get belted this year, they will probably be pushing the top 8. I wouldn't be banking on another 112 avg year but I don't see him falling off the face of the earth, he will still be 105ish IMO

[Bully]

Don't forget that his 2 low scores in 2014 came when he got KO'd against Sydney early and against Richmond he had to play full back on Jack Riewoldt when he kicked 10 goals and they lost by 100+Mid you take those out he averaged 100
GWS won't get belted this year, they will probably be pushing the top 8. I wouldn't be banking on another 112 avg year but I don't see him falling off the face of the earth, he will still be 105ish IMO

Jack had half a dozen opponents that day, Shaw may have finished on him but it certainly didn't begin like that. Shaw's 2014 average was affected by the Sydney match, it's one reason I started him last year. This year it's hard to justify spending 600k on a guy who will be around the 100 mark, that to me is more realistic. He has only hit 105 twice in his career, 2015 and way back in 2007. If I was a betting man I would say there's an excellent chance Shaw will come at a 100k discount down the track, the only players who can hold their value are the ones who never dip below 100.

Here's a list of his highest & lowest salaries recorded throughout the year.

2015 - 617k, 491k
2014 - 522k, 437k
2013 - 563k, 406k
2012 - 578k, 454k
2011 - 479k, 399k
2010 - 530k, 389k
2009 - 552k, 400k
2008 - 613k, 371k

Heath Shaw has a high standard deviation, he's a trading stock and a good one at that. He can slip in the odd horror game and that's when you need to strike. If I take last year and plug in his first 8 games he drops to 531k, that would be around the upgrade season and a perfect time to add him to your defence - and this is his best set of numbers. Just have a look at the right hand column and tell me you are comfortable with the downside. If I paid 607k for Shaw and my opponents got him for any of those amounts I would feel downright dirty.

[RaisyDaisy]

Understand what you're saying, but by that same logic we shouldn't be starting Goldy or Fyfe too

I can't see how Goldy is completely assured to go 125+, but everyone picks him because 'he will be the best ruck' so why can't that same logic be applied to the guy who 'will be the best defender'?

Heaters history is impressive - much longer and proven then most

Cant pick certain parts and facts to push your point. Heater is just as good a pick then any other top liner. Just comes down to personal choice and structure

[GoLions]

Understand what you're saying, but by that same logic we shouldn't be starting Goldy or Fyfe too

I can't see how Goldy is completely assured to go 125+, but everyone picks him because 'he will be the best ruck' so why can't that same logic be applied to the guy who 'will be the best defender'?

Heaters history is impressive - much longer and proven then most

Cant pick certain parts and facts to push your point. Heater is just as good a pick then any other top liner. Just comes down to personal choice and structure

I don't think you can really compare Goldy to Shaw though. In the ruck, if you don't start Goldy and you want him in your team end of season, you either start a mid pricer, or another premo and waste a trade later on. For the ruck mid pricers, Lobbe I don't believe will be a good pick, Leuey will injure himself, etc. Whereas with Shaw in defence, you can go 100k cheaper with someone like Simmo, Laird, Houli, and so many other guys, and not have to be in a situation where you either don't have Shaw all year, or have to waste a trade to swap another premo back for him.

[dmac07]

Understand what you're saying, but by that same logic we shouldn't be starting Goldy or Fyfe too

I can't see how Goldy is completely assured to go 125+, but everyone picks him because 'he will be the best ruck' so why can't that same logic be applied to the guy who 'will be the best defender'?

Heaters history is impressive - much longer and proven then most

Cant pick certain parts and facts to push your point. Heater is just as good a pick then any other top liner. Just comes down to personal choice and structure

I don't think you can really compare Goldy to Shaw though. In the ruck, if you don't start Goldy and you want him in your team end of season, you either start a mid pricer, or another premo and waste a trade later on. For the ruck mid pricers, Lobbe I don't believe will be a good pick, Leuey will injure himself, etc. Whereas with Shaw in defence, you can go 100k cheaper with someone like Simmo, Laird, Houli, and so many other guys, and not have to be in a situation where you either don't have Shaw all year, or have to waste a trade to swap another premo back for him.

To me I think you can defiantely compare Shaw and Goldy. Both are very likely to drop up to 100k from their starting price and may drop their averages. But both are very likely to be the top scorer in their position, both could be so by 5 to 10 points a game. If you look at it from a pure buy low sell high perspective then there are better picks than these guys who are more undervalued than them, this is why many are saying you could get Parker, Shiel, JPK, Beams etc for Shaws price who have more upside. This completely discounts the fact that we have limited trades, and if you plan on getting the best team of premiums on the park, you not only need value, but also to start as many of these top scoring premiums of each position in your initial side as possible. Assuming you already have a handful or more of the more guranteed top scoring mid premiums (Fyfe, Pendles, Danger, Ablett, Rocky), than Shaw (and Goldy) have something that is far more certain than any of those mids, a very very high probability that they will be in the top 2-3 scorers in their position, if not top. Whereas none of the JPK, Beams, Parker, Shiel etc group have anywhere near that certainty. Basically, every top team will NEED Shaw and Goldy in their side eventually. Yet the same cant be said for those other guys.

Dont why Im trying to convince people he is such a good pick, I really hope he is unique and that the weak he bottoms out in price a popular premium goes down, and Shaw scores a 150, screwing everyone over.

[RaisyDaisy]

Understand what you're saying, but by that same logic we shouldn't be starting Goldy or Fyfe too

I can't see how Goldy is completely assured to go 125+, but everyone picks him because 'he will be the best ruck' so why can't that same logic be applied to the guy who 'will be the best defender'?

Heaters history is impressive - much longer and proven then most

Cant pick certain parts and facts to push your point. Heater is just as good a pick then any other top liner. Just comes down to personal choice and structure

I don't think you can really compare Goldy to Shaw though. In the ruck, if you don't start Goldy and you want him in your team end of season, you either start a mid pricer, or another premo and waste a trade later on. For the ruck mid pricers, Lobbe I don't believe will be a good pick, Leuey will injure himself, etc. Whereas with Shaw in defence, you can go 100k cheaper with someone like Simmo, Laird, Houli, and so many other guys, and not have to be in a situation where you either don't have Shaw all year, or have to waste a trade to swap another premo back for him.

You can go 100k cheaper with Simmo, Laird or Houli just like you can go 100k cheaper with Martin, Gawn, Mummy or NN

Either way, Shaw is in defence as to what Goldy is in the ruck, so I don't see how that logic applies to one but not the other

[GoLions]

Understand what you're saying, but by that same logic we shouldn't be starting Goldy or Fyfe too

I can't see how Goldy is completely assured to go 125+, but everyone picks him because 'he will be the best ruck' so why can't that same logic be applied to the guy who 'will be the best defender'?

Heaters history is impressive - much longer and proven then most

Cant pick certain parts and facts to push your point. Heater is just as good a pick then any other top liner. Just comes down to personal choice and structure

I don't think you can really compare Goldy to Shaw though. In the ruck, if you don't start Goldy and you want him in your team end of season, you either start a mid pricer, or another premo and waste a trade later on. For the ruck mid pricers, Lobbe I don't believe will be a good pick, Leuey will injure himself, etc. Whereas with Shaw in defence, you can go 100k cheaper with someone like Simmo, Laird, Houli, and so many other guys, and not have to be in a situation where you either don't have Shaw all year, or have to waste a trade to swap another premo back for him.

To me I think you can defiantely compare Shaw and Goldy. Both are very likely to drop up to 100k from their starting price and may drop their averages. But both are very likely to be the top scorer in their position, both could be so by 5 to 10 points a game. If you look at it from a pure buy low sell high perspective then there are better picks than these guys who are more undervalued than them, this is why many are saying you could get Parker, Shiel, JPK, Beams etc for Shaws price who have more upside. This completely discounts the fact that we have limited trades, and if you plan on getting the best team of premiums on the park, you not only need value, but also to start as many of these top scoring premiums of each position in your initial side as possible. Assuming you already have a handful or more of the more guranteed top scoring mid premiums (Fyfe, Pendles, Danger, Ablett, Rocky), than Shaw (and Goldy) have something that is far more certain than any of those mids, a very very high probability that they will be in the top 2-3 scorers in their position, if not top. Whereas none of the JPK, Beams, Parker, Shiel etc group have anywhere near that certainty. Basically, every top team will NEED Shaw and Goldy in their side eventually. Yet the same cant be said for those other guys.

Dont why Im trying to convince people he is such a good pick, I really hope he is unique and that the weak he bottoms out in price a popular premium goes down, and Shaw scores a 150, screwing everyone over.

I dunno where you pulled Parker/Shiel/JPK/Beams from, and seems as though you completely missed my point. But whatever.

[Samm79]

Bully, you've hit the nail on the head. In a game of finding value this is not the value play. He may back up last year, play 22 and average 110+, but most likely it'll be <22 and <110. Will be very surprised if the overall winner starts with him.

Last year's winner started with Malceski.... I can't see Shaw dropping 30 PPG so starting him or not isn't going to make or break your year

Didn't know that, very good point. Do you know if he pull the pin on Eski after round 2?

[Big Mac]

Understand what you're saying, but by that same logic we shouldn't be starting Goldy or Fyfe too

I can't see how Goldy is completely assured to go 125+, but everyone picks him because 'he will be the best ruck' so why can't that same logic be applied to the guy who 'will be the best defender'?

Heaters history is impressive - much longer and proven then most

Cant pick certain parts and facts to push your point. Heater is just as good a pick then any other top liner. Just comes down to personal choice and structure

I don't think you can really compare Goldy to Shaw though. In the ruck, if you don't start Goldy and you want him in your team end of season, you either start a mid pricer, or another premo and waste a trade later on. For the ruck mid pricers, Lobbe I don't believe will be a good pick, Leuey will injure himself, etc. Whereas with Shaw in defence, you can go 100k cheaper with someone like Simmo, Laird, Houli, and so many other guys, and not have to be in a situation where you either don't have Shaw all year, or have to waste a trade to swap another premo back for him.

Good points mate I agree with you 100%

[Gigantor]

Bully, you've hit the nail on the head. In a game of finding value this is not the value play. He may back up last year, play 22 and average 110+, but most likely it'll be <22 and <110. Will be very surprised if the overall winner starts with him.

Last year's winner started with Malceski.... I can't see Shaw dropping 30 PPG so starting him or not isn't going to make or break your year

Didn't know that, very good point. Do you know if he pull the pin on Eski after round 2?

Nope, rd18 for 361k, was his last upgrade

[Bully]

Understand what you're saying, but by that same logic we shouldn't be starting Goldy or Fyfe too

I can't see how Goldy is completely assured to go 125+, but everyone picks him because 'he will be the best ruck' so why can't that same logic be applied to the guy who 'will be the best defender'?

Heaters history is impressive - much longer and proven then most

Cant pick certain parts and facts to push your point. Heater is just as good a pick then any other top liner. Just comes down to personal choice and structure

If you think Shaw will be the best defender then pick him, personally I don't think that will be the case because he has never achieved that feat apart from 2015. This game is just as much about picking anomalies as it is picking trends. Shaw's history is around the 100 mark, for the same reason I haven't gone for Deledio and his scoring history is far superior to Shaw's. The Goldy example is relevant to a degree but again, his history is far more conclusive, 113, 93, 106, 113 & 128. The odds of him replicating 2015 are very remote but he will more than likely be somewhere around the 115 mark, enough to take out the best ruck honours. His durability is also a selling point, Shaw doesn't have that record which is another reason to pick him mid season.

[Marstar]

Understand what you're saying, but by that same logic we shouldn't be starting Goldy or Fyfe too

I can't see how Goldy is completely assured to go 125+, but everyone picks him because 'he will be the best ruck' so why can't that same logic be applied to the guy who 'will be the best defender'?

Heaters history is impressive - much longer and proven then most

Cant pick certain parts and facts to push your point. Heater is just as good a pick then any other top liner. Just comes down to personal choice and structure

I don't think you can really compare Goldy to Shaw though. In the ruck, if you don't start Goldy and you want him in your team end of season, you either start a mid pricer, or another premo and waste a trade later on. For the ruck mid pricers, Lobbe I don't believe will be a good pick, Leuey will injure himself, etc. Whereas with Shaw in defence, you can go 100k cheaper with someone like Simmo, Laird, Houli, and so many other guys, and not have to be in a situation where you either don't have Shaw all year, or have to waste a trade to swap another premo back for him.

You can go 100k cheaper with Simmo, Laird or Houli just like you can go 100k cheaper with Martin, Gawn, Mummy or NN

Either way, Shaw is in defence as to what Goldy is in the ruck, so I don't see how that logic applies to one but not the other

But you won't and don't need to trade out Simmo, Lair or Houli if they are scoring 90-95 ..... and Shaw is scoring 110.

If you want Gold's 120's and the others are 110's ... some1 has to go.

[GoLions]

Understand what you're saying, but by that same logic we shouldn't be starting Goldy or Fyfe too

I can't see how Goldy is completely assured to go 125+, but everyone picks him because 'he will be the best ruck' so why can't that same logic be applied to the guy who 'will be the best defender'?

Heaters history is impressive - much longer and proven then most

Cant pick certain parts and facts to push your point. Heater is just as good a pick then any other top liner. Just comes down to personal choice and structure

I don't think you can really compare Goldy to Shaw though. In the ruck, if you don't start Goldy and you want him in your team end of season, you either start a mid pricer, or another premo and waste a trade later on. For the ruck mid pricers, Lobbe I don't believe will be a good pick, Leuey will injure himself, etc. Whereas with Shaw in defence, you can go 100k cheaper with someone like Simmo, Laird, Houli, and so many other guys, and not have to be in a situation where you either don't have Shaw all year, or have to waste a trade to swap another premo back for him.

You can go 100k cheaper with Simmo, Laird or Houli just like you can go 100k cheaper with Martin, Gawn, Mummy or NN

Either way, Shaw is in defence as to what Goldy is in the ruck, so I don't see how that logic applies to one but not the other

Martin, Nicnat, Shaw, Simmo: Obviously have Shaw, but can only get Goldy if you trade out Martin or Nicnat

Goldy, Nicnat, Simmo, Laird: Obviously have Goldy, and have 4 (more likely 3) other positions in defence where you can upgrade someone to Shaw

I know which combo I'd rather start with

[dmac07]

Understand what you're saying, but by that same logic we shouldn't be starting Goldy or Fyfe too

I can't see how Goldy is completely assured to go 125+, but everyone picks him because 'he will be the best ruck' so why can't that same logic be applied to the guy who 'will be the best defender'?

Heaters history is impressive - much longer and proven then most

Cant pick certain parts and facts to push your point. Heater is just as good a pick then any other top liner. Just comes down to personal choice and structure

I don't think you can really compare Goldy to Shaw though. In the ruck, if you don't start Goldy and you want him in your team end of season, you either start a mid pricer, or another premo and waste a trade later on. For the ruck mid pricers, Lobbe I don't believe will be a good pick, Leuey will injure himself, etc. Whereas with Shaw in defence, you can go 100k cheaper with someone like Simmo, Laird, Houli, and so many other guys, and not have to be in a situation where you either don't have Shaw all year, or have to waste a trade to swap another premo back for him.

You can go 100k cheaper with Simmo, Laird or Houli just like you can go 100k cheaper with Martin, Gawn, Mummy or NN

Either way, Shaw is in defence as to what Goldy is in the ruck, so I don't see how that logic applies to one but not the other

Martin, Nicnat, Shaw, Simmo: Obviously have Shaw, but can only get Goldy if you trade out Martin or Nicnat

Goldy, Nicnat, Simmo, Laird: Obviously have Goldy, and have 4 (more likely 3) other positions in defence where you can upgrade someone to Shaw

I know which combo I'd rather start with

Have Shaw, Bartel.  Goldy, Nicnat. Very happy with that combo.

[quinny88]

I think Shaw is a lot more mature and an all round better and more team orientated player than he ever has been in the past. I'm expecting another really good season from him