Heath Shaw

[AaronKirk]

At some stage he will be in my side. I just cannot justify spending 600k on a defender when history suggest he will be unable to maintain his average.

However his lowest score was against the Suns with a score of 69 in round 4. Every other score for the rest of the season was 85 or more with 2 scores in the 80s, 4 in the 90's and 15 100+ scores.

It is hard to justify the spend on him and hard to justify not to pick him as well with his great scoring in a side which will only improve.

A dilemma which is causing headaches in my potential selections in my starting side

[RaisyDaisy]

It's Shaw or Rance for me

If the 80k saved can really help me in another line I will do it, but if not I am going with Heater

I've got a lot of top priced guys in my side this year, but this is the approach I have decided to go with. If I think you are good enough for Top 5 etc then I am starting with you from the get go and not worrying about trying to get you in later

[Bully]

Before breaking the bank balance on Shaw it's worth reminding people of the following -

1) Heath Shaw has shattered his career average, the previous two years he averaged 92 & 96.

2) Last year was the first time in 7 years Shaw has played 22 games, prior to that he would miss his obligatory 3-4 matches.

3) In the past 8 years Shaw has averaged in the nineties on 5 occasions with his lowest being 90. Aside from last year his best two years were 100 & 101.

4) Despite the outstanding year last year Shaw's first 6 games consisted of 3 scores under 90 which included a 69. This may not sound like a big deal but you are paying for premium output, if JPK or Priddis did the same thing there would be some expletives thrown around.

5) There is a slight chance Shaw will not be a top 6 defender. If he reverts back to his 2013 & 2014 form this will become reality. The top 6 will all need to be around the 100 mark (based on previous history). Factor in some missed matches and this will become even more pronounced.

6) One needs to weigh up Shaw vs Premo midfielder, that is the bottom line, the money you are spending could buy JPK, Priddis, Beams. Ask yourself who you feel more confident about in a head to head and for the entire season.

7) Shaw is prone to shockers which will see his price plummet, in 2014 he scored a 34 against Richmond (no this wasn't his concussion game) and in 2013 he scored 37 against Hawthorn. If this does eventuate then his price will plummet.

I'm not suggesting Shaw is a bad pick but for 600k you want ironclad certainty, pretty much a ton a match for the whole year. If you can say with some confidence that this will happen then fair enough, if there's some doubt then perhaps it's better to wait for him to drop in price.

[eaglesman]

Before breaking the bank balance on Shaw it's worth reminding people of the following -

1) Heath Shaw has shattered his career average, the previous two years he averaged 92 & 96.

2) Last year was the first time in 7 years Shaw has played 22 games, prior to that he would miss his obligatory 3-4 matches.

3) In the past 8 years Shaw has averaged in the nineties on 5 occasions with his lowest being 90. Aside from last year his best two years were 100 & 101.

4) Despite the outstanding year last year Shaw's first 6 games consisted of 3 scores under 90 which included a 69. This may not sound like a big deal but you are paying for premium output, if JPK or Priddis did the same thing there would be some expletives thrown around.

5) There is a slight chance Shaw will not be a top 6 defender. If he reverts back to his 2013 & 2014 form this will become reality. The top 6 will all need to be around the 100 mark (based on previous history). Factor in some missed matches and this will become even more pronounced.

6) One needs to weigh up Shaw vs Premo midfielder, that is the bottom line, the money you are spending could buy JPK, Priddis, Beams. Ask yourself who you feel more confident about in a head to head and for the entire season.

7) Shaw is prone to shockers which will see his price plummet, in 2014 he scored a 34 against Richmond (no this wasn't his concussion game) and in 2013 he scored 37 against Hawthorn. If this does eventuate then his price will plummet.

I'm not suggesting Shaw is a bad pick but for 600k you want ironclad certainty, pretty much a ton a match for the whole year. If you can say with some confidence that this will happen then fair enough, if there's some doubt then perhaps it's better to wait for him to drop in price.

I currently have shaw but I agree with everything said here. Makes me want to downgrade him. The issue for me is who to? I don't like any of the defenders really.
I have laird and rance at the moment. I like Houli but don't want 2 tigers and I'm not sure which tiger to pick out of he two.
Not convinced Bartel and birch are good picks.
Keep coming back to Simpson or docherty.
Really not sure

[Bully]

Before breaking the bank balance on Shaw it's worth reminding people of the following -

1) Heath Shaw has shattered his career average, the previous two years he averaged 92 & 96.

2) Last year was the first time in 7 years Shaw has played 22 games, prior to that he would miss his obligatory 3-4 matches.

3) In the past 8 years Shaw has averaged in the nineties on 5 occasions with his lowest being 90. Aside from last year his best two years were 100 & 101.

4) Despite the outstanding year last year Shaw's first 6 games consisted of 3 scores under 90 which included a 69. This may not sound like a big deal but you are paying for premium output, if JPK or Priddis did the same thing there would be some expletives thrown around.

5) There is a slight chance Shaw will not be a top 6 defender. If he reverts back to his 2013 & 2014 form this will become reality. The top 6 will all need to be around the 100 mark (based on previous history). Factor in some missed matches and this will become even more pronounced.

6) One needs to weigh up Shaw vs Premo midfielder, that is the bottom line, the money you are spending could buy JPK, Priddis, Beams. Ask yourself who you feel more confident about in a head to head and for the entire season.

7) Shaw is prone to shockers which will see his price plummet, in 2014 he scored a 34 against Richmond (no this wasn't his concussion game) and in 2013 he scored 37 against Hawthorn. If this does eventuate then his price will plummet.

I'm not suggesting Shaw is a bad pick but for 600k you want ironclad certainty, pretty much a ton a match for the whole year. If you can say with some confidence that this will happen then fair enough, if there's some doubt then perhaps it's better to wait for him to drop in price.

I currently have shaw but I agree with everything said here. Makes me want to downgrade him. The issue for me is who to? I don't like any of the defenders really.
I have laird and rance at the moment. I like Houli but don't want 2 tigers and I'm not sure which tiger to pick out of he two.
Not convinced Bartel and birch are good picks.
Keep coming back to Simpson or docherty.
Really not sure

Bartel is still a very good selection in my opinion, take out his concussion game and he's back over 500k. My feeling is he will average 95, it will be a bit like Dane Swan in his twilight years, there will be some good matches mixed in with some not so good. The addition of 4 gun recruits will also help, Geelong will be pressing for top 4 selection. Simpson is a decent pick but to be honest, I think this is the year to go with 2 premos in defence. I'm playing Crouch at M8 because I think a guy like Parker will outscore any defender at a similar price. Defensive rookies are there so it seems, just need one of Tucker/Broad/Adams to be named and I can pull it off.

[_wato]

Point 6 is the defining point for me Bully. I could not put $607k into Shaw knowing I could get Beams/JPK/Priddis/Gray for exactly the same price.

[eaglesman]

Before breaking the bank balance on Shaw it's worth reminding people of the following -

1) Heath Shaw has shattered his career average, the previous two years he averaged 92 & 96.

2) Last year was the first time in 7 years Shaw has played 22 games, prior to that he would miss his obligatory 3-4 matches.

3) In the past 8 years Shaw has averaged in the nineties on 5 occasions with his lowest being 90. Aside from last year his best two years were 100 & 101.

4) Despite the outstanding year last year Shaw's first 6 games consisted of 3 scores under 90 which included a 69. This may not sound like a big deal but you are paying for premium output, if JPK or Priddis did the same thing there would be some expletives thrown around.

5) There is a slight chance Shaw will not be a top 6 defender. If he reverts back to his 2013 & 2014 form this will become reality. The top 6 will all need to be around the 100 mark (based on previous history). Factor in some missed matches and this will become even more pronounced.

6) One needs to weigh up Shaw vs Premo midfielder, that is the bottom line, the money you are spending could buy JPK, Priddis, Beams. Ask yourself who you feel more confident about in a head to head and for the entire season.

7) Shaw is prone to shockers which will see his price plummet, in 2014 he scored a 34 against Richmond (no this wasn't his concussion game) and in 2013 he scored 37 against Hawthorn. If this does eventuate then his price will plummet.

I'm not suggesting Shaw is a bad pick but for 600k you want ironclad certainty, pretty much a ton a match for the whole year. If you can say with some confidence that this will happen then fair enough, if there's some doubt then perhaps it's better to wait for him to drop in price.

I currently have shaw but I agree with everything said here. Makes me want to downgrade him. The issue for me is who to? I don't like any of the defenders really.
I have laird and rance at the moment. I like Houli but don't want 2 tigers and I'm not sure which tiger to pick out of he two.
Not convinced Bartel and birch are good picks.
Keep coming back to Simpson or docherty.
Really not sure

Bartel is still a very good selection in my opinion, take out his concussion game and he's back over 500k. My feeling is he will average 95, it will be a bit like Dane Swan in his twilight years, there will be some good matches mixed in with some not so good. The addition of 4 gun recruits will also help, Geelong will be pressing for top 4 selection. Simpson is a decent pick but to be honest, I think this is the year to go with 2 premos in defence. I'm playing Crouch at M8 because I think a guy like Parker will outscore any defender at a similar price. Defensive rookies are there so it seems, just need one of Tucker/Broad/Adams to be named and I can pull it off.

Yeah I don't share the same hope with tucker broad and Adams as most on here --- think it's wishful thinking and come the real stuff you will all be changing structures back to what u had originally

[RaisyDaisy]

Point 6 is the defining point for me Bully. I could not put $607k into Shaw knowing I could get Beams/JPK/Priddis/Gray for exactly the same price.

I'm not entirely sure about this

Shaw's history in Collingwood was in a team where he was part of the 6. He is now the general leading down back and taking the lead role. I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see him pushing 110 this year.

Yes you can get JPK etc at the same price, but eventually you need to fill out backline with prems too, and Shaw will be the best if not Top 3 so you're going to want him eventually - just comes down to whether you think he will drop enough and consider the points lost by not picking him over another defender

It's a tough choice

[Bully]

Before breaking the bank balance on Shaw it's worth reminding people of the following -

1) Heath Shaw has shattered his career average, the previous two years he averaged 92 & 96.

2) Last year was the first time in 7 years Shaw has played 22 games, prior to that he would miss his obligatory 3-4 matches.

3) In the past 8 years Shaw has averaged in the nineties on 5 occasions with his lowest being 90. Aside from last year his best two years were 100 & 101.

4) Despite the outstanding year last year Shaw's first 6 games consisted of 3 scores under 90 which included a 69. This may not sound like a big deal but you are paying for premium output, if JPK or Priddis did the same thing there would be some expletives thrown around.

5) There is a slight chance Shaw will not be a top 6 defender. If he reverts back to his 2013 & 2014 form this will become reality. The top 6 will all need to be around the 100 mark (based on previous history). Factor in some missed matches and this will become even more pronounced.

6) One needs to weigh up Shaw vs Premo midfielder, that is the bottom line, the money you are spending could buy JPK, Priddis, Beams. Ask yourself who you feel more confident about in a head to head and for the entire season.

7) Shaw is prone to shockers which will see his price plummet, in 2014 he scored a 34 against Richmond (no this wasn't his concussion game) and in 2013 he scored 37 against Hawthorn. If this does eventuate then his price will plummet.

I'm not suggesting Shaw is a bad pick but for 600k you want ironclad certainty, pretty much a ton a match for the whole year. If you can say with some confidence that this will happen then fair enough, if there's some doubt then perhaps it's better to wait for him to drop in price.

I currently have shaw but I agree with everything said here. Makes me want to downgrade him. The issue for me is who to? I don't like any of the defenders really.
I have laird and rance at the moment. I like Houli but don't want 2 tigers and I'm not sure which tiger to pick out of he two.
Not convinced Bartel and birch are good picks.
Keep coming back to Simpson or docherty.
Really not sure

Bartel is still a very good selection in my opinion, take out his concussion game and he's back over 500k. My feeling is he will average 95, it will be a bit like Dane Swan in his twilight years, there will be some good matches mixed in with some not so good. The addition of 4 gun recruits will also help, Geelong will be pressing for top 4 selection. Simpson is a decent pick but to be honest, I think this is the year to go with 2 premos in defence. I'm playing Crouch at M8 because I think a guy like Parker will outscore any defender at a similar price. Defensive rookies are there so it seems, just need one of Tucker/Broad/Adams to be named and I can pull it off.

Yeah I don't share the same hope with tucker broad and Adams as most on here --- think it's wishful thinking and come the real stuff you will all be changing structures back to what u had originally

I should qualify that by stating I have Harwood at D3, I really think he's an excellent prospect in the mid-price range. The only catch is I need another 117k backman to fill D6, none may emerge in which case it will be Simpson for me at D3 & Harwood at D4.

Point 6 is the defining point for me Bully. I could not put $607k into Shaw knowing I could get Beams/JPK/Priddis/Gray for exactly the same price.

I'm not entirely sure about this

Shaw's history in Collingwood was in a team where he was part of the 6. He is now the general leading down back and taking the lead role. I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see him pushing 110 this year.

Yes you can get JPK etc at the same price, but eventually you need to fill out backline with prems too, and Shaw will be the best if not Top 3 so you're going to want him eventually - just comes down to whether you think he will drop enough and consider the points lost by not picking him over another defender

It's a tough choice

Ignore history at your own peril, Shaw has had a season which is completely at odds with his own playing career and for SC defenders in general. The only flanker who had back to back 110 seasons was Goddard with a 115 followed by a 130, the rest of the time he was around the 100-105 mark. I would even argue he played forward & midfield a fair bit in those days. Deledio has never done it in his career, the year he hit 116 he was a permanent midfielder. The odds of Shaw reverting back to type are very high, most rebounders have a golden year and then normaility returns, Andrew Walker & Nick Malceski are further evidence of this.

[Marstar]

Point 6 is the defining point for me Bully. I could not put $607k into Shaw knowing I could get Beams/JPK/Priddis/Gray for exactly the same price.

I'm not entirely sure about this

Shaw's history in Collingwood was in a team where he was part of the 6. He is now the general leading down back and taking the lead role. I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see him pushing 110 this year.

Yes you can get JPK etc at the same price, but eventually you need to fill out backline with prems too, and Shaw will be the best if not Top 3 so you're going to want him eventually - just comes down to whether you think he will drop enough and consider the points lost by not picking him over another defender

It's a tough choice

Another way to look at it is :

Shaw + 450k mid

450k def + 600k mid.

Option 2 = Keepers.

The arguement that the 450k mid is Libba would only work if Option 2 ppl didn't have him.

The other option is "why not both(tm)" and go with a weaker D3/4 or F3/4 combo .... now this becomes a structure debate.

[Holz]

the questioned I asked myself originally was Birchall + Weitering or Shaw + a def rookie after I already picked the 4 best.

It has now been

Shaw + 2 rookies v  Lonergan + Harwood + Weitering and feel much safer with option 2.

Weitering at D5 looks very very solid. especially considering i have 5 uber premos with crouch at M7 and mills at m8

[Samm79]

Bully, you've hit the nail on the head. In a game of finding value this is not the value play. He may back up last year, play 22 and average 110+, but most likely it'll be <22 and <110. Will be very surprised if the overall winner starts with him.

[Gigantor]

Bully, you've hit the nail on the head. In a game of finding value this is not the value play. He may back up last year, play 22 and average 110+, but most likely it'll be <22 and <110. Will be very surprised if the overall winner starts with him.

Last year's winner started with Malceski.... I can't see Shaw dropping 30 PPG so starting him or not isn't going to make or break your year

[Holz]

Bully, you've hit the nail on the head. In a game of finding value this is not the value play. He may back up last year, play 22 and average 110+, but most likely it'll be <22 and <110. Will be very surprised if the overall winner starts with him.

Last year's winner started with Malceski.... I can't see Shaw dropping 30 PPG so starting him or not isn't going to make or break your year

At this stage i dont have shaw, so the overall winner wont have him :P

Good point though

[eaglesman]

I don't mind the Harwood option and with a quick reshuffle involving shaw out I have him at d4 and a mid pricer of the Sheridan/lonergan type at d3

It leaves me 100k that I don't know where to use it

I'm not going 5 uber premos as I don't believe Pendles will be as good this season - favouring Parker