BandWagon heading to the Wild West

[Ringo]

and still only at 0.74% ownership - A real Pod if game.

[_wato]

Pretty much 1 in a hundred teams. So top 1,000 considering, only 10 people would have him.

All the stats weigh up and his durability is a massive plus. Dunno why people are saying not to be 'stupid' in picking him. Face it, he's one of the best.

[Holz]

Pretty much 1 in a hundred teams. So top 1,000 considering, only 10 people would have him.

All the stats weigh up and his durability is a massive plus. Dunno why people are saying not to be 'stupid' in picking him. Face it, he's one of the best.

not really casual football fans who are making teams unless they follow port wont have him. I think about 5-10% of the people who atre serious are looking at him.

just like how Rocky is only like 40%.

I can guarantee more then 800 of the top 1000 will have rocky unless he has a terrible start and not having him is a huge plus. 

[quinny88]

3 straight 2000+ seasons

only Dustin has done that out of all the forwards.

That's enough for me.

It's nice to have a guy that's in all year but it's not everything. If I have Deledio who's averaging 15 points more and he gets injured I'll burn a trade but still have more points than Westhoff produced

[Holz]

3 straight 2000+ seasons

only Dustin has done that out of all the forwards.

That's enough for me.

It's nice to have a guy that's in all year but it's not everything. If I have Deledio who's averaging 15 points more and he gets injured I'll burn a trade but still have more points than Westhoff produced

what if he gets a 1 week resting?

you play a 65 forward and that average drops from 110 to 108

2 weeks injury and its 110 down to 106.

he is still a good pick but Hoff did average 94.6 so 95-98 is not unreasonable.

90k + a trade can make up lots of points.

[fanTCfool]

Pretty much 1 in a hundred teams. So top 1,000 considering, only 10 people would have him.

All the stats weigh up and his durability is a massive plus. Dunno why people are saying not to be 'stupid' in picking him. Face it, he's one of the best.

Spot on here, this guy is one of the best 15 fantasy forwards in the competition, it's impossible for it to be a stupid pick.
Some teams will take the punt, looks like most won't, but that's the way it is with premos, they all get picked but you can't pick them all.

[Jukes]

Pretty much 1 in a hundred teams. So top 1,000 considering, only 10 people would have him.

All the stats weigh up and his durability is a massive plus. Dunno why people are saying not to be 'stupid' in picking him. Face it, he's one of the best.

Spot on here, this guy is one of the best 15 fantasy forwards in the competition, it's impossible for it to be a stupid pick.
Some teams will take the punt, looks like most won't, but that's the way it is with premos, they all get picked but you can't pick them all.

Wouldn't trust you two to know about stupid picks, you do both have Ablett in your teams after all ;)

Hoff's not a stupid pick, but it's not like you're missing too much if you leave him out. Plenty of good options around his price.

[Marstar]

and still only at 0.74% ownership - A real Pod if game.

Up by 0.13% in less than 3 weeks ... Bandwagon picking up pace ... 5% here we come !!!!

In the mix for your F3 Holz?

[Holz]

and still only at 0.74% ownership - A real Pod if game.

Up by 0.13% in less than 3 weeks ... Bandwagon picking up pace ... 5% here we come !!!!

In the mix for your F3 Holz?

he is my F2 at the moment

Martin Hoff Barlow Buddy

if i chose 3 premo forwards he is the one im dropping though.

[Marstar]

and still only at 0.74% ownership - A real Pod if game.

Up by 0.13% in less than 3 weeks ... Bandwagon picking up pace ... 5% here we come !!!!

In the mix for your F3 Holz?

he is my F2 at the moment

Martin Hoff Barlow Buddy

if i chose 3 premo forwards he is the one im dropping though.

You don't think Buddy will be a similar price some point mid-season?

Personally, I don't trust the hype that the 22 game 100ppg+ Buddy is just waiting for Round 1 to start.

I'm far more confident in securing my 2000+ points for the season and rolling the dice on Buddy when it's time to roll the dice.

p.s. can some1 give us a current % of teams with the Hoff (thanks in advance).

[Huttabito]

0.83%

[Mykonos FC]

Posted by James Griffiths in AFL Open Society on Facebook:

"Westhoff is currently ranked as the 11st best forward by average. Ranked as the 6th best for total points in 2015. So on the face of it, he shouldn’t really be considered a bad pick to begin with.

Westhoff averaged a respectable 94.6 in 2015. Here are two historical facts about Westhoff that you may not know. Firstly, over the past 4 seasons he has only missed 1 match (talk about dependable!) This subsequently leads on to the second fact, that over each of the past 3 seasons, he has scored over 2000 total SC points. No other forward, except Dustin Martin has achieved that feat.

Let’s get stuck into the analysis of his 2015 season. When Port Adelaide WON in 2015, Westhoff’s average was 103.8 (increase of 9.2). His flat track bully status is well and truly confirmed when we look back further and analyse 2014’s numbers. In 2014 Westhoff averaged 91 SC points but only averaged 80 (-11 below season average) in games Port LOST. So it is fair to say he is somewhat of a flat track bully, meaning he performs *distinctly* better in games his team wins.

Port Adelaide’s 2016 fixture is relatively soft, with them only having to play Hawthorn, WCE, Sydney and Fremantle once each.
Another weird quirk about Westhoff in 2015, in games played at Etihad stadium (4 games) he averaged 76 points (-18.4 season average). The trait was existent in 2014 too where he averaged 84.6 at Etihad Stadium (3 games) which was -6.4 below his season average. You might ask… Why are you rambling on about Etihad Stadium…? Thankfully, Port Adelaide only play 2 games there in 2016, against the Blues and the Kangaroos. Over the past 3 years Westhoff’s average against Carlton and North Melb is 91.5 and if Westhoff was to escape with 90 odd from his two Etihad stadium games in 2016, it would be another reason to expect Westhoff to exceed 2015 numbers.

It might seem a little OTT, and it probably is, however playing 2 less games at Etihad stadium in 2016 literally equates to a 2 PPG advantage compared to 2015.

Getting back on track, remember how I said Westhoff was a flat track bully… In the words of Futurama’s Professor Farnsworth ‘GOOD NEWS EVERYONE’. Port Adelaide’s first 11 games of the season include games against STK, ESS, CARL, GWS, BL, MEL and COLL. Last season, in the 7 games against this opposition he averaged 106 (+11.4 above season average).

6 of Port Adelaide’s first 9 games are at home. Westhoff averaged 98 SC points at home in 2015 (+3.4 on season average) and averaged a whopping 112.7 in the 7 home games that Port Adelaide won (+18.1 above season average).
It is not improbable that Port Adelaide will be 8-0 after 8 rounds, maybe even 10-2 after 12 and with a lot of home games early on, I smell a Westhoff explosion!

Westhoff’s 90-100 average of the past 3 seasons doesn’t require him to kick bags of goals either;
2013 avg: 98.4 (27 goals scored)
2014 avg: 91 (26 goals scored)
2015 avg: 94.6 (25 goals scored)

Therefore the inclusion of Dixon is pivotal, if Dixon is fit it can either allow Westhoff to roam around the ground, possibly being used as a +1 in defence, extra big body midfielder/pinch hit ruck (stopping short of saying a Blicavs version 2.0 however) or a third tall forward which could snag him an extra goal or two. In no game in 2015 was Westhoff the highest individual goal scorer for Port Adelaide. What I’d love to get my hands on is a heat map of Westhoff’s coverage of the ground. I think you’ll find it similar to that of a midfielder almost.

However, let’s be an honest salesman here. If you do not start with Westhoff or bring him in very early (before round 4), then DO NOT bring him in at all as he goes through exhilarating highs and crashing lows.
Alarmingly, he has started both 2014 and 2015 POORLY, dropping in price roughly $130,000 in 2014 by the middle of the season and dropping $80,000 by round 8 in 2015. You will have heard of this saying before, BUY LOW, SELL HIGH. This rule is golden when considering Westhoff however, I think that at $510,900 he is actually at a low price when you consider what is written above, and that his high point may come at around 12/bye period.

Then the question becomes what do you do with Westhoff at his proposed peak in Round 12?
Use a trade to sideways trade him out? Keep him, hoping he doesn’t taper off as predicted? Is this inconsistency in scoring offset by the fact he will most likely score above 2000 SC points and not miss a game in 2016?

Also, to add one further dangling carrot, Westhoff is currently owned by 0.8% of SC teams. Now for someone who can boast being the 2nd highest forward SC scorer over the past 3 seasons, he would be one hell of a POD, also potentially one hell of a rollercoaster/headache come round 12"

[fanTCfool]

Damn, that is some good reading.
I'm getting tempted  :-\

[PowerBug]

Started poorly in 14 and 15 but who remembers his start in 13? ;)

[DaveElNacho]

Started poorly in 14 and 15 but who remembers his start in 13? ;)

I remember how many people were bitterly disappointed after trading him in haha