Mid Price Predictions

[fasttrack13]

I think he'll be a weapon in 2017, I don't have the plums to start him this year though over Goldy/NicNat/Sauce etc.

Grundy needs to add finding the ball to his bow... Only thing separating him from elite! His ruck work will improve over time.

[dmac07]

I think he'll be a weapon in 2017, I don't have the plums to start him this year though over Goldy/NicNat/Sauce etc.

Grundy needs to add finding the ball to his bow... Only thing separating him from elite! His ruck work will improve over time.

Averaged 15 disposals, 24 hit outs, 4.5 tackles a game last year. His time in the ruck is gradually increasing, and I think it will again as I see the pies playing him as the only dedicated ruckman. If he can add 1-2 disposals and 5 hitouts a game, both very doable, he can be a keeper this year.

[frenzy]

Last season, I thought Witts would be the Pies number one Ruck, How wrong was I, Grundy done a number on me and Witts.  :o

[AaronKirk]

My projections for the main 3 mid pricers people are considering. IMO these below are a best case/half realistic scenario.
It also presumes they will all play from round one and not miss games.

Libba 100
Crouch 95
JOM 90

From the above Libba could be an M9 keeper (probably not) and the other 2 stepping stones

Using TooSerious' price calculator the prices for each at their respective byes would be roughly the figures below

Libba: 488k - gain approx 131k
Crouch: 457k - gain approx 151k
O'Meara 436k - gain approx 116k

Remember also that the byes are later this season compared to previous seasons.

From the above projections IMO the better selection of the 3 would be Crouch

For my rookie example price gain I have used Petracca and have projected a modest 60 average.

This rough example would move Petracca's price from around 124k to around 284k - a price gain of roughly 160k

The question? If Libba/Crouch/O'Meara roughly average above against say a 75 avg rookie what is the better pick?

If you use the extra cash to get another gun premo mid in then I would argue that it could be a trap picking the mid-pricers. At this stage I have both Libba and Crouch in my side but am considering dropping Libba for a rookie to then bring another premo in on another line.

[Marstar]

My projections for the main 3 mid pricers people are considering. IMO these below are a best case/half realistic scenario.
It also presumes they will all play from round one and not miss games.

Libba 100
Crouch 95
JOM 90

From the above Libba could be an M9 keeper (probably not) and the other 2 stepping stones

Using TooSerious' price calculator the prices for each at their respective byes would be roughly the figures below

Libba: 488k - gain approx 131k
Crouch: 457k - gain approx 151k
O'Meara 436k - gain approx 116k

Remember also that the byes are later this season compared to previous seasons.

From the above projections IMO the better selection of the 3 would be Crouch

For my rookie example price gain I have used Petracca and have projected a modest 60 average.

This rough example would move Petracca's price from around 124k to around 284k - a price gain of roughly 160k

The question? If Libba/Crouch/O'Meara roughly average above against say a 75 avg rookie what is the better pick?

If you use the extra cash to get another gun premo mid in then I would argue that it could be a trap picking the mid-pricers. At this stage I have both Libba and Crouch in my side but am considering dropping Libba for a rookie to then bring another premo in on another line.

If Libba is averaging 100 when the BYE's come round then (IMO) he becomes a M9 Keeper if you are Cruising or an M8 Keeper if you've been traderaped from injuries.

Crouch doesn't in either scenario and as you pointed out ... is he better than a 70's rookie?

So I'm on Libba :P

[RaisyDaisy]

Still can't understand the debate about Libba and Crouch

180-200 points per week, sometimes more for 655K

Good luck getting that output cheaper elsewhere

Starting them means you'll have less rookies to moo so it's all relative. Enjoy their much better than rookie points from the get go, then reassess as the season plays out

If they're keepers, fantastic. If not, easy upgrades

Don't try and over complicate it. Lock them in

[Keeper27]

Still can't understand the debate about Libba and Crouch

180-200 points per week, sometimes more for 655K

Good luck getting that output cheaper elsewhere

Starting them means you'll have less rookies to moo so it's all relative. Enjoy their much better than rookie points from the get go, then reassess as the season plays out

If they're keepers, fantastic. If not, easy upgrades

Don't try and over complicate it. Lock them in

Call me crazy but I LOVE the idea of starting with Libba & Crouch.
and I'd be happy if Libba goes 100, crouch 90-95 all for $663K

Im even warming up to the idea of Polec being in there too over a rookie. (85)

[MC]

Still can't understand the debate about Libba and Crouch

180-200 points per week, sometimes more for 655K

Good luck getting that output cheaper elsewhere

Starting them means you'll have less rookies to moo so it's all relative. Enjoy their much better than rookie points from the get go, then reassess as the season plays out

If they're keepers, fantastic. If not, easy upgrades

Don't try and over complicate it. Lock them in

The problem is that the best teams (for overall placings) are the ones which are finished first. I'm assuming neither will be best-22 in a finished team, so having one of them on the field is to the detriment of your overall rank. As stated, having a rookie scoring 60 makes the same cash in a quicker timeframe, meaning you upgrade your squad faster.
Not sure why I keep posting this, if my theory is correct, everyone who starts an underdone Libba/Crouch will be less competition for that #1 spot  8)

[Holz]

Still can't understand the debate about Libba and Crouch

180-200 points per week, sometimes more for 655K

Good luck getting that output cheaper elsewhere

Starting them means you'll have less rookies to moo so it's all relative. Enjoy their much better than rookie points from the get go, then reassess as the season plays out

If they're keepers, fantastic. If not, easy upgrades

Don't try and over complicate it. Lock them in

The problem is that the best teams (for overall placings) are the ones which are finished first. I'm assuming neither will be best-22 in a finished team, so having one of them on the field is to the detriment of your overall rank. As stated, having a rookie scoring 60 makes the same cash in a quicker timeframe, meaning you upgrade your squad faster.
Not sure why I keep posting this, if my theory is correct, everyone who starts an underdone Libba/Crouch will be less competition for that #1 spot  8)

Points not cash win you overall. Cash just gets you points.

There arent roo many good rookies, the good ones are all 200k. I dont see 5-6 good 120k options.

Fair enough saying 120k guys will go up more but i have crouch libba and still have 5 rookie spots. Which i can fill with 120k guys but there arent enoigh.

So need 200k guys and crouch for 110k can make you 15 on them. Not sure you can make that up elsewhere.

Basically give me your 5 beet rookie picks. Forget about them now pick 2 better then crouch libba

[Ringo]

I have Libba locked in and also Crouch is in but still under consideration. 

I will be watching both in the NAB cup to see how they are running after their injuries.  My cause for concern is after watching Dan Rich at close quarters last year after he came back as it appears to me anyway he had lost a couple yard of pace (was never overly quick though) but more importantly appeared to have lost some distance and accuracy with his kicks. The number of times he failed to reach the sticks from just outside 50 last season really emphasized it to me.

So as i said will be watching for any signs of diminished performance.

[MC]

Still can't understand the debate about Libba and Crouch

180-200 points per week, sometimes more for 655K

Good luck getting that output cheaper elsewhere

Starting them means you'll have less rookies to moo so it's all relative. Enjoy their much better than rookie points from the get go, then reassess as the season plays out

If they're keepers, fantastic. If not, easy upgrades

Don't try and over complicate it. Lock them in

The problem is that the best teams (for overall placings) are the ones which are finished first. I'm assuming neither will be best-22 in a finished team, so having one of them on the field is to the detriment of your overall rank. As stated, having a rookie scoring 60 makes the same cash in a quicker timeframe, meaning you upgrade your squad faster.
Not sure why I keep posting this, if my theory is correct, everyone who starts an underdone Libba/Crouch will be less competition for that #1 spot  8)

Points not cash win you overall. Cash just gets you points.

There arent roo many good rookies, the good ones are all 200k. I dont see 5-6 good 120k options.

Fair enough saying 120k guys will go up more but i have crouch libba and still have 5 rookie spots. Which i can fill with 120k guys but there arent enoigh.

So need 200k guys and crouch for 110k can make you 15 on them. Not sure you can make that up elsewhere.

Basically give me your 5 beet rookie picks. Forget about them now pick 2 better then crouch libba

In my team currently, I have Wines at M5, who is 520k. What i'm saying is that I have Wines and a rookie where someone else will have Crouch/Libba. I concede that Crouch/Libba may outscore my pair for a slightly cheaper cost, though I would wager that my team would be completed in a quicker timeframe and through the use of less trades. Regardless of whether you might be 50-points up on me after 8-10 rounds, my team started is closer to being finished, meaning I will shoot past soon enough.
The counter to this would be if either of those blokes upped their output from previous years and became keepers, say if Libba averaged 110 again you would of course be better off. My argument is that neither of those players will be keepers, merely stepping stones and possibly won't be peaking when you need them to be.

The rookie situation is not something we can really discuss right now given the uncertainties, though I am certain there will be more than enough to start with, given Essendon's plight. Gore/Jansen/Keays/Polkinghorne/Marcon/Kerridge/Petracca are all in the mix for those spots you were referring to, plus many others who I can't remember off the top of my head :)

As usual, it will be a wait and see during the NAB. 

[Holz]

I have Libba locked in and also Crouch is in but still under consideration. 

I will be watching both in the NAB cup to see how they are running after their injuries.  My cause for concern is after watching Dan Rich at close quarters last year after he came back as it appears to me anyway he had lost a couple yard of pace (was never overly quick though) but more importantly appeared to have lost some distance and accuracy with his kicks. The number of times he failed to reach the sticks from just outside 50 last season really emphasized it to me.

So as i said will be watching for any signs of diminished performance.

A leg break is possibly worse but look at this

Barlow

116 injured
94 unsubbed (only played second half of the season)
95
110

considering libba rehabbed for a full year not half a year like barlow. Im thinking that drop to 95 is about right.

Libba was 110. Im expecing 95 from him.

Crouch career best year is 95 but 103 if you exclude his first two games. Im thinking 90 for him.

im planning on 95, 90 and im happy with that.

95 is a 515k price tag but realistically should be about 450k by round 8 i think
90 is a 490k price tag but realistically should be about 420k by round 8

so Libba +80 with good scoring
Crouch +110 with good scoring

takes 4 trades to turn these guys into the best of the best super premos.

Starting Fyfe Ablett Rocky Pendles if i can get these two to say JPK Danger then i feel pretty strong come round 9

[Holz]

Still can't understand the debate about Libba and Crouch

180-200 points per week, sometimes more for 655K

Good luck getting that output cheaper elsewhere

Starting them means you'll have less rookies to moo so it's all relative. Enjoy their much better than rookie points from the get go, then reassess as the season plays out

If they're keepers, fantastic. If not, easy upgrades

Don't try and over complicate it. Lock them in

The problem is that the best teams (for overall placings) are the ones which are finished first. I'm assuming neither will be best-22 in a finished team, so having one of them on the field is to the detriment of your overall rank. As stated, having a rookie scoring 60 makes the same cash in a quicker timeframe, meaning you upgrade your squad faster.
Not sure why I keep posting this, if my theory is correct, everyone who starts an underdone Libba/Crouch will be less competition for that #1 spot  8)

Points not cash win you overall. Cash just gets you points.

There arent roo many good rookies, the good ones are all 200k. I dont see 5-6 good 120k options.

Fair enough saying 120k guys will go up more but i have crouch libba and still have 5 rookie spots. Which i can fill with 120k guys but there arent enoigh.

So need 200k guys and crouch for 110k can make you 15 on them. Not sure you can make that up elsewhere.

Basically give me your 5 beet rookie picks. Forget about them now pick 2 better then crouch libba

In my team currently, I have Wines at M5, who is 520k. What i'm saying is that I have Wines and a rookie where someone else will have Crouch/Libba. I concede that Crouch/Libba may outscore my pair for a slightly cheaper cost, though I would wager that my team would be completed in a quicker timeframe and through the use of less trades. Regardless of whether you might be 50-points up on me after 8-10 rounds, my team started is closer to being finished, meaning I will shoot past soon enough.
The counter to this would be if either of those blokes upped their output from previous years and became keepers, say if Libba averaged 110 again you would of course be better off. My argument is that neither of those players will be keepers, merely stepping stones and possibly won't be peaking when you need them to be.

The rookie situation is not something we can really discuss right now given the uncertainties, though I am certain there will be more than enough to start with, given Essendon's plight. Gore/Jansen/Keays/Polkinghorne/Marcon/Kerridge/Petracca are all in the mix for those spots you were referring to, plus many others who I can't remember off the top of my head :)

As usual, it will be a wait and see during the NAB.

its not a case of may its will. First up i dont like wines as a pick so this is an easy case for me to say libba crouch beat them.

stepping stones are all about upgrading fast the reason im getting them is to upgrade my team fast. Getting your rookie to a super premo is tough.

I have fyfe ablett rocky pendles and with crouch he can shot up to 420k pretty quickly that makes it easier for me to say bring in a 115+ danger early who will smash wines.

then even by round 7 i have Pendles Ablett Rocky Fyfe Danger Libba which will pull ahead. getting libbba up to another premo is easier.

for you to bring in super premos you need to double downgrade one week or have cash in the bank. double downgrade really hurts your points that week. So if i do rookie downgrade with crouch to super premo the same week you do a double downgrade im now making 40 points on you that week. If you are leaving cash in the bank thats points wasted.

[MC]

I guess I don't trust Libba or Crouch to average their end of season numbers at the start of the year. I could imagine Libba going for 80s at the start, with 100s after the half, giving him that average of 90-95 by season's end. The problem with that is that you need him to string together some pretty good scores to raise the cash you're needing - which may not happen at the start of the year. 

[Ricochet]

I have Libba locked in and also Crouch is in but still under consideration. 

I will be watching both in the NAB cup to see how they are running after their injuries.  My cause for concern is after watching Dan Rich at close quarters last year after he came back as it appears to me anyway he had lost a couple yard of pace (was never overly quick though) but more importantly appeared to have lost some distance and accuracy with his kicks. The number of times he failed to reach the sticks from just outside 50 last season really emphasized it to me.

So as i said will be watching for any signs of diminished performance.

Guys coming back from ACLs can generally hit similar numbers. Even Rich only dropped 5pts from his average the year before his ACL, and that could be because of his move to Half Back

Goddard
2006 ave: 106
2007: ACL
2008 ave: 103

Gray
2011 ave: 91
2012: ACL
2013 ave: 91 unsubbed

Hayes
2010 ave: 103
2011: ACL
2012 ave: 102

Liberatore
2014 ave: 110
2015: ACL
2016: ??

My only concern with Libba is Minson's affect on him