Mid Price Predictions

[Ricochet]

Libba 105+
Crouch 100+
JOM 90+

Bit tired of hearing how players coming back from injury are viewed as risks that will never be 100% ever again

Yes Crouch has had an injury or two, but with his preseason form and no Danger on top of what he showed before he went down this kid can seriously be a future 110+ gun

Any player can cop an LTI, doesnt mean they are forever going to be injured

I don't think many have said they will NEVER get back to their best??

[meow meow]

1.  Greene. 80

2.  Gaff. 105

3. Shuey 95

4.  Hanley 90

[FactHunt]

You jumping on the Libba train Meow?

[eaglesman]

Libba 105+
Crouch 100+
JOM 90+

Bit tired of hearing how players coming back from injury are viewed as risks that will never be 100% ever again

Yes Crouch has had an injury or two, but with his preseason form and no Danger on top of what he showed before he went down this kid can seriously be a future 110+ gun

Any player can cop an LTI, doesnt mean they are forever going to be injured

I agree ... Shaking my head at some of these doubters

[RaisyDaisy]

Libba 105+
Crouch 100+
JOM 90+

Bit tired of hearing how players coming back from injury are viewed as risks that will never be 100% ever again

Yes Crouch has had an injury or two, but with his preseason form and no Danger on top of what he showed before he went down this kid can seriously be a future 110+ gun

Any player can cop an LTI, doesnt mean they are forever going to be injured

I don't think many have said they will NEVER get back to their best??

It's not using the word NEVER, but a common theme I continue to read around here is how these 3 can't or won't be as good as what they either have been in the past or can be in the future because of their injuries or injury history

They're 300k and 350k for crying out loud - that is ridiculous value of the highest order. At that price, there is no risk that outweighs the reward

JOM I question as he is still touch and go, but Libba and Crouch are the biggest locks of the year and both are capable of pushing 110 and being M7/8 at least. They are as just as susceptible to injuries than any other player

[FactHunt]

Libba- ceiling 115-120, expecting 105
Crouch- ceiling 110, expecting 95-100
JOM- ceiling 105-110, expecting 90-100

any, or all 3 could go bang at any time... be great to see all 3 of these lads play 22 + finals

[Ricochet]

Libba 105+
Crouch 100+
JOM 90+

Bit tired of hearing how players coming back from injury are viewed as risks that will never be 100% ever again

Yes Crouch has had an injury or two, but with his preseason form and no Danger on top of what he showed before he went down this kid can seriously be a future 110+ gun

Any player can cop an LTI, doesnt mean they are forever going to be injured

I don't think many have said they will NEVER get back to their best??

It's not using the word NEVER, but a common theme I continue to read around here is how these 3 can't or won't be as good as what they either have been in the past or can be in the future because of their injuries or injury history

They're 300k and 350k for crying out loud - that is ridiculous value of the highest order. At that price, there is no risk that outweighs the reward

JOM I question as he is still touch and go, but Libba and Crouch are the biggest locks of the year and both are capable of pushing 110 and being M7/8 at least. They are as just as susceptible to injuries than any other player

Haha you did, but anyway doesnt matter. There is a risk but they're still good picks, and most on here will agree

[quinny88]

Libba- ceiling 115-120, expecting 105
Crouch- ceiling 110, expecting 95-100
JOM- ceiling 105-110, expecting 90-100

any, or all 3 could go bang at any time... be great to see all 3 of these lads play 22 + finals

I'll give you the hot tip, none of them will play finals ;)

[GoLions]

Libba- ceiling 115-120, expecting 105
Crouch- ceiling 110, expecting 95-100
JOM- ceiling 105-110, expecting 90-100

any, or all 3 could go bang at any time... be great to see all 3 of these lads play 22 + finals

I'll give you the hot tip, none of them will play finals ;)

And yet they'd still win the same amount as Richmond

[kilbluff1985]

Rockliff will make more cash then those 3

[Holz]

Libba to go 110+ and be a keeper
crouch and Jaeger to go 100-105 and be my M8/M9 and rotate them around.

So you expect them to put up career best numbers because they've spent a year out injured, and two of them aren't having full preseasons? I think your logic is being clouded by the fact that you've picked them in your team and wishful thinking has taken over.

Libba 97
Crouch 88 and another injury
JOM 91

MM good points, though I still see Libba 100+ and Crouch around 100 when he is on the park.    Given  their starting price we have nothing to lose as if they only avg your figures we can trade up.  If they go higher we keep them.    Where is the downside?

The only downside is that rookies should make more money, and quicker than these guys. If you're happy to carry a not quite premium for most of the year then go for it.

Danger 120
Hopper 80
Gresham 75

Libba 100
JOM 90
Crouch 85

Same points. Quicker cash generation. More cash generation. Less trades. Captain option included. Less injury risk. More incentive to trade rather than carry an almost premo and fall behind week after week.

thats not a fair comparison though as Hopper Gresham are my first picked rookies.

I have 3 rookies and Crouch Libba so you need to compare my 4th and 5th best rookie against them on field and then 7th and 8th for cash generation. then the numbers wont look soo good.

Can you name 5 rookies better then crouch and libba?

[Holz]

For the record

Crouch 95
Libba 95
Omeara 90

will still pick crouch and libba

libba pricey at 360k and a 95 average player will reach 500k, but due to magic number changing during season and the price change formula i expect him to get to only 440k so make only 80k. However I have +20 scoring against rookies then at 440k I downgrade a 300k rookie to a 120k rookie, use that 180k to add to libba and have 620k.

with that 620k I might be able to jump on a fyfe who started a little slow with his injury interupted preseason or defaintley should have enough to jump on beams who also had an interupted preseason.

[GCSkiwi]

There's certainly plenty of reasons to debate Crouch and JOM, but I'm just gonna say anyone who isn't taking Libba is plain nuts. Ok, he's had a year off, ok he blew an ACL. The kid is 23, and in his previous two seasons played 22 games, averaging 107 and 110. A bunch of his scoring came from the fact that he's a tackling machine (highest # of tackles in the 2014 season). The bulldogs are starting to develop some potential and Libba could easily slot right back in and kill it. Yeah he'll have some rust, but it's not purely wishful thinking to suggest he could average >100 this year. At 360k that's a no-brainer. Worst case scenario he cops an early injury and you have to trade him, which is literally NO DIFFERENT to any other player on the park, you can't predict that. Next worse case is he doesn't kill the scoresheet and stagnates where he is, ok then it's a risk that didn't pay off. Alternatively, he could pump out an average of 105, become a perfectly good M7/8/9 for 360k. I don't see him coming back and averaging <70, if he stays on the park he's absolutely worth it.

[MC]

For the record

Crouch 95
Libba 95
Omeara 90

will still pick crouch and libba

libba pricey at 360k and a 95 average player will reach 500k, but due to magic number changing during season and the price change formula i expect him to get to only 440k so make only 80k. However I have +20 scoring against rookies then at 440k I downgrade a 300k rookie to a 120k rookie, use that 180k to add to libba and have 620k.

with that 620k I might be able to jump on a fyfe who started a little slow with his injury interupted preseason or defaintley should have enough to jump on beams who also had an interupted preseason.

I agree with your predictions, almost exactly what I think, though I would suggest that they are more likely to improve as the year goes on.
For example, if we're being reasonable we might predict JOM to average 90 for the year. The unfortunate thing with that is that it's more likely to be 80 for the start of the year and 100 for the 2nd half to get to that 90-average..

What I suggest to everyone:
1. Predict your player's average for the end of the year.
2. Split the season in half and work out the split (ie 75 and 95 to average 85 etc)
3. Work out what you need from that player in terms of output/cash generation.
4. Consider the likelihood of it happening.
5. Make your decision and pray  ;D

[BomberSam]

Predictions for Craig Bird anyone?

Really keen to see how he goes in NAB, but he's my F4 currently. I reckon he'll go 85-90.