LS Defence Profiles

[Capper]

Agree with Shaw (start) and Macca (wait till he drops in price)

we read the others later

[djbics]

Awesome write ups as per usual LS, I'm assuming your final two will be Corey Enright and Rory Laird?  Any chance (time and motivation willing) of getting one of Josh Gibson?  Bit of a unique who I'd love to read your opinion on.

[LordSneeze]

Awesome write ups as per usual LS, I'm assuming your final two will be Corey Enright and Rory Laird?  Any chance (time and motivation willing) of getting one of Josh Gibson?  Bit of a unique who I'd love to read your opinion on.

Yep last 2 will be Enright and Laird. I will then see what sort of motivation I have.

I have some pretty interesting stuff on KK & Smith

[LordSneeze]

Name: Corey Enright
Club: Geel
Price: $516,000
2015 Avg: 95.62

Opening 8 Opponents: Haw (96.89), GWS (94.67), Bris (84.25), Ess (99.27), Port (97.15), GC (96), WCE (89.73), Crows (104.5)
Opening 8 Stadiums: MCG x2 (96.53), SO (103.5), SS x3 (94.23), AO x2 (95.50)

Injury News: No injuries over preseason other than old age with him turning 35 during the season. Did step down from the leadership group aswell.

Analysis: Over his career Enright has been a very durable player missing a total of 9 games in the last 10 years, the majority of these were from restings rather than injuries or suspensions, thus if you pick Enright expect 20 games due to the few games it is inevitable that he will be rested in.
Enright really is at his peak price being the equivilant of a 95.2 average. Over the last 10 years he has averaged between 89 & 100. Over the last 5 rounds in 2015 Enright averaged 104.2, this good run inflated his average from about a 92 to a 95. The last time Enright average 95+ was in 2011.

Expected 2016 average: 91
Cost per point: $5670

Pick Type: Keeper

Verdict: You know what you will get with Enright, a few missed game, but a solid 90+ average. I wouldn’t suggest picking more than 1 of him, Boyd, Mcveigh, Simpson or Bartel due to the high probability that all will be rested at some point during the year. If you are happy paying overs and willing to take a risk on restings not happening until you have cover Enright would be an interesting POD as he is owned by only 1.15% of teams.

[LordSneeze]

So looking back I am pretty happy with what I suggested.
Simpson was a lock,
Shaw, Rance, Enright and Boyd were good picks. (If you took any 2 with Simpson you went well)
Houli, Mcdonald, McVeigh were wait and see.

Heath Shaw â€" My most difficult selection, a lock for a top 6 defender to start the year and lo and behold, he averaged 106. His relatively poor start averaging 90 over the first 4 rounds would have had a few people concerned who started him, however a few big games meant his price never really dropped to levels to all you to pick him up easily until round 16 ish. Averaging 112.4 up until the byes proved that you really needed to start with Shaw. So eventhough you could be paying overs that’s 11 straight years over 90 average. Ignore at your peril going forward.

Kade Simpson â€" I suggested to start him and boy did he repay those who did (3.9% of teams), wish id followed by own advice. His move to the wing as projected resulted in huge gains averaging 106.4. While this extent of the increase was unexpected his consistency was not a low of 84 and 15 scores over 100 just shows that.

Matt Boyd â€" Thanks to the Bulldogs injuries Boyd only missed 2 games this year. After the first 4 rounds of the year Boyd scored 100+ 11/16 times So eventhough he dropped 60k in the first few weeks he never dropped enough to pick up easily. He was the perfect upgrade after his Bye

Jarred Mcveigh â€" The fact Mcveigh didn’t start the year meant that it was a no brainer not to pick him. As expected though he was highly consistent with a low of 67 and high of 130, but the majority in the 85-90 range.

Alex Rance â€" Rance managed to improve on his average in 2016, which was due mainly to his 3 huge games in rounds 19-21 (145, 120, 126) bumping it up from a 94. Looking back on his price history after the Bye he had declined $50k and by round 18 by $92k. Picking him up in this period was the best result price wise, but his overall consistency showed he was a good pick from the start.

Tom Mcdonald â€" As expected Mcdonald dropped well off last years pace to start the year. Bottoming out at 369k after round 9 averaging 73.9. If you looked elsewhere to start as suggested and brought him here as a possible D7 come years end you reaped the rewards as he averaged 98.8 from R9 onwards

Bacher Houli â€" Correct prediction to wait and see, but not for the correct Reason.
Injury Derailed his season playing only 12 games and that likely means he won’t get a discount next year either.
He threw most of my preview out the window not having a single game score between 80 & 90. Crazy when you consider his previous history. Overall though he averaged 89.3 with 5 scores about 100 & 7 scores below 80.
While he is going to be down on his 2016 starting price ill be treating him as a wait and see in 2017, if he can pull the 60s back up to 80s he might be worth the option to bring in as a POD.

Corey Enright â€" Arguably the surprise starting premium defender with an average of 101 over the year while missing only 1 game. His consistency and durability was a great factor and repayed those that took the chance starting him.