LS Defence Profiles

[LordSneeze]

Ive been working on my defence as I have been very indecisive on who I am going to pick. I thought instead of just looking id put some stuff I find into an analysis for you all.
Here is one as an example, happy to post more of the ones I have done if people want me too. Currently I have done the top 10 priced defenders

Name: Heath Shaw
Club: GWS
Price: $607,800
2015 Avg: 112.6

Opening 8 Opponents: Mel (98.43), Geel (108.3), Syd (97.64), Port (95.67), STK (91.91), Hawks (96.13), Freo (84.38), GC (104)
Opening 8 Stadiums: MCG (96.78), SO x2 (103.5), SCG (70), ES (97.47), SPO x2 (103.13), DS (107.67)

Injury News: Rumours to have no niggles and coming off a 22 game season. The only injury apparent is between the ears. With potential for some brain farts resulting in suspensions/self-inflicted injuries.

Analysis: I don’t believe anyone will argue that Shaw is a top defender and a solid pick to finish in the top 6 defenders and average 95+.
His last 5 years have yielded averages of 100.8, 100.6, 96.7, 91.8, 112. He has however historically struggled to keep himself on the field, with 2015 being the first year since 2007 that he played more than 19 games.
The starting draw for Shaw doesn’t fill me with a lot of confidence, overall he averages 100+ against 9 teams, and he is only playing 2 of these in the first 8 rounds
One point that a lot of people have missed from last year is the impact of the Mumford injury on Shaws scores. Prior to Mumford going down injured in R11 Shaw was averaging 104.72, post Mumford’s injury he averaged 119.45
For me the tough draw, 60k ish overpriced value and the fact that Mumford returning might impact his scoring push me to not starting him. His ability to have a brain fart and missing 2 games would be disastrous if occurring early with weak cover, risk offsets the risk of him starting the year averaging 120

Expected 2016 average: 100
Cost per point: $6078

Pick Type: Keeper

Verdict: It is a safe bet that he will be a top 6 defender come years end and players who can average 100 are few and far between in defence. There is no easy answer on whether you start Shaw and for most it will come down to personal opinion.
Overall I suggest to look elsewhere to start as I feel his risk outweighs the premium price he holds to start the year. It is likely he will drop in price sometime before the byes and that extra cash should be vital in improving a different selection and offsetting Shaw's extra points.

[quinny88]

Awesome write up LS. Interested to see what you have for Kade Simpson

[grange76]

Nice write up.

Locked in for SC, surely

[LordSneeze]

Simpson for you. Wanted to add in the heat maps, but too much effort. Gonna just have to trust me.

Name: Kade Simpson
Club: Carlton
Price: $500,200
2015 Avg: 92.7

Opening 8 Opponents: Rich (95.88), Syd (85.69), GC (89.2), WB (84.22), Freo (96.69), Ess (96.42), Coll (95), Port (87.64)
Opening 8 Stadiums: MCG x3 (95.86), ES x3 (94.23), MS (91), DS (89.13),

Injury News: No rumours this preseason of any injuries and is as versatile as they come. Only missing 5 games in the last 10 years.

Analysis: Consistency, consistency, consistency. We should just call him Mr consistency. The last 5 years have yielded averages of 94.5, 94.1, 95.1, 95.5, 92.5.
The question I ask you is why he dropped to 92 last year compared to the 4 years prior. The answer might surprise you. It’s not possessions, tackles or clangers. It was the result of a small change in his role, playing more as the loose man deeper in defence. This resulted in an increase in rebound 50, bounces, uncontested possessions and a reduction in contested possessions, goals, Free Kicks For. This was also the reason for the narrower variance in scores with 15/20 scores in the 70-100 point range and a season low of 65.

This change can be seen by his 2015 season heat map compared to the 2014

Expected 2016 average: 92
Cost per point: $5436

Pick Type: Keeper

Verdict:  You know what you will get from Simpson and that is durability and consistency, you will get the odd larger score and odd lower score, but most will fall in that average range of 70-100. I feel he is a very safe pick for a 90+ average something I cannot feel confident with most defenders at his price. This is good for about a top 10 defender and with the large amount of choices taking the consistent player to start is IMO the smart move.
If his Pre-season heat maps show a slightly more wing/mid role I will be locking him in and throwing away the key.

[Gigantor]

Man that makes me really want to start Simpson now :)

[quinny88]

Great stuff LS. Definitely in my side at this stage!

[GM]

Great analysis LS 
Can we have your thoughts on Duryea thanks.

[LordSneeze]

Great analysis LS 
Can we have your thoughts on Duryea thanks.

I do only plan on doing the top 10 defenders, but might do more depending on how long it takes me

[LordSneeze]

Name: Matthew Boyd
Club: WB
Price: $560,900
2015 Avg: 103.9

Opening 8 Opponents: Freo (111.3), STK (101.57), Hawks (107.45), Carl (109.56), Lions (108.08), North (98.69), Crows (95.64), Mel (96.63)
Opening 8 Stadiums: ES x7 (103.09), MCG (98.12)

Injury News: No rumour of injuries, however his body is a question and I do expect some rest games.

Analysis: Picking up defensive eligibility makes Boyd someone who should be considered. Solely off the back of his scoring history, since 2009 he has averaged 106.12 points per game. Last year did see a change in his role however he still averaged a solid 103.3. This was due to a large increase in uncontested marks (3rd in AFL) and uncontested possessions (7th in AFL), with his strong disposal efficiency at about 80% across last year I feel teams won’t allow him the freedom he had. With that said though he should still collect enough of the ball to score very well. IMO somewhere around the 95-100 mark.
Boyd has a very good start to the year with 7 matches in a row at ES and the first 5 matches against teams that he has historically scored very well against.
Last year saw him have 83.6% TOG. You would expect this is about the maximum he would be able to physically cope with. The reduction in interchanges and the sub rule might mean he needs to spend more time on the ground and thus need that additional rest

Expected 2016 average: 98
Cost per point: $5723

Pick Type: Keeper

Verdict: The fact that Boyd is highly likely to miss games makes him a very difficult player to start with, as you don’t want to be in the situation where you have only rookie cover. I do feel that the easier draw to start the year will mean that he will be rested more later on in the year and probably average less over the second half of the year. Thus if I had him id want him from the start, but it is a massive risk with only rookie coverage.
The fact he was so high up in the Uncontested Marks and Possessions and increased in most of the key stats tells me he has next to no room for growth. A 103 will be his Max average likely playing 18 games.
His consistency in scores means his price won’t drop a massive amount and make it hard t be an upgrade target.
Suggestion is to hold off and keep an eye on as a upgrade target once you have premium cover on the bench. Could be a great swing player for finals.

[Gigantor]

Doggies play the first 8 straight in Melbourne, wow that's crazy.

[LordSneeze]

Doggies play the first 8 straight in Melbourne, wow that's crazy.

First 7 at ES too.

[LordSneeze]

Name: Jarred Mcveigh
Club: Syd
Price: $542,600
2015 Avg: 100.5

Opening 8 Opponents: Coll (83.15), Carl (93.46), GWS (105.88), Crows (93.22), WCE (90.25), Lions (96.13), Ess (79.4), Rich (79.94)
Opening 8 Stadiums: ANZ x2 (90.73), ES (83.96), SCG x2 (94.13), AO (92.67), G (99.75), MCG (87.27)

Injury News: Had post season knee surgery. Was on light duties until after Christmas. Update: Started running this week and is still a few weeks away from contact drills.

Analysis: 31 and post season knee surgery are massive warning signs on am impending drop in points in the coming years, just will it be this one.The last 6 year have had averages of 93.8, 93.8, 97.3, 105.7, 104.4, 99.2. If you remove the one Sub game his average last year was 100.4.
Last year was played predominantly off half back, this saw an uptick in marks while possessions held steady. One issue I see is that his Disposal efficiency was at a high 80%, compared to his career average of 73%, add in 90% TOG excluding the Sub match and there is a bit of worry that any of these drop off slightly he will significantly fall in average. I still expect him to average 96 this year which is more than enough for a top 10 if not top 5 defender

Expected 2016 average: 96
Cost per point: $5652

Pick Type: Keeper

Verdict: The surgery over the post season is a massive cause of concern, an interrupted preseason for a player that was playing a large % of TOG at a high efficiency level. Even if playing R1 you would expect he will need some time to find his feet again, this could result in a slow start and small drop in price.
If named R1 in no way would Mcveigh be a bad pick, You know what you will get; a solid 20-22 games, consistent scores above 90 with the odd 60 or 130 thrown in. I do feel that you will only want one of Boyd or McVeigh come the end of the year, especially if you have Bartel and/or Simpson, so holding off to see which way to go appears a solid strategy.
Edit: The fact that he has only just started has put a big red line through his name for me.

[LordSneeze]

Name: Alex Rance
Club: Richmond
Price: $523,700
2015 Avg: 96.6

Opening 8 Opponents: Car (99.56), Coll (83.67), Ade (62.67), WCE (70.29), Mel (74.33), Port (82.14), Hawks (77.8), Syd (86.5)
Opening 8 Stadiums: MCG x6 (86.62), ES (74.29), DS (74.75)

Injury News: There have been no injuries to report for Rance. Keep in mind his issues last year where he almost walked away from the game.

Analysis: The reining Richmond Best and Fairest had arguably his best year of his career both in a playing and supercoach sense. While there was no discernible change in his stats averages, the gain came mainly from and increase in his disposal efficiency at 79.8 vs 83.2 ranking him 27th overall in players that had over 100 possessions for the year & reduction in clangers 47 (17 games) vs 49 (22 games) per game.

Rance has proven that he can score big with 8 scores over 120 & 22 over 100 in the last 3 years (61 games). He is also somewhat consistent with 65.57% of games over 80. He does have the tendency to throw in low scores with 14.75% under 70.

His average of 96.6 is the first time Rance has averaged over 90 in a year with the 4 prior years all between 80 & 90.

Expected 2016 average: 89
Cost per point: $5884

Pick Type: Keeper

Verdict: If you pick Rance you are picking him as a keeper and paying overs, expecting a solid consistency with the odd big game or poor game. While it is possible that Rance will be able to perform well again next year. His average of 96.6 will be very hard to back up. It is more likely he will fall backwards slightly towards a 88-90 point average.
People always overestimate points in defence, in general there are only a couple of players who average over 100 in any given year and 10 or so that go over 90.
There are worse picks you could make than Rance, but for his price I feel there are better options to start the year. Possible upgrade option after the byes once his price drops slightly.

[LordSneeze]

Name: Tom Mcdonald
Club: Melbourne
Price: $517,500
2015 Avg: 95.4

Opening 8 Opponents: GWS (90.5), Ess (83.5), NTH (89.6), COLL (65.4), RICH (64.33), STK (80), GC (103.6), WB (76.33)
Opening 8 Stadiums: MCG x5 (81.7), BA (NA), ES (91.8), MS (70)

Injury News: No Injury news to speak of.

Analysis: The breakout player to beat all breakouts last year with a pretty impressive increase of 25 points on his overall average. Can he back it up again this year, is he worth picking?

Last year in 22 games Mcdonald had 9 games over 100 (40.90%) and a further 7 over 80 (31.8%). However in the 3 years prior (58 games) he only scored 4 tons (6.89%) and 19 over 80 (32.58%). Thus he went from 39.47% to 72.7% of scores over 80. Obviously you should expect some improvement as he was going into his 4th year, but this is a big jump in 1 year.

If you look at his stats there was an uptick in most stats. Disposal efficiency went from 73 to 76%, Clangers 2.5 to 2, Disposals 14.9 to 19, contested 4.2 to 6.9, Marks 5 to 7, contested marks +.8. I could go on. If he can hold these stat increases next year there is no reason why he couldn’t score 90+, but it will be very hard to do.

Expected 2016 average: 86
Cost per point: $6017

Pick Type: Keeper

Verdict: A massive risk picking Mcdonald as he could fall back a long way. In essence he is an unproven premium defender. Looking at defenders with a similar stat line the one that stands out is Harry Taylor and only once in his career has he managed to average over 90. When he did the year after he fell back 11 points on average.
He does have a weakish run to start the year and might start the year strong, this could be a massive trap for young players upgrading to him before the start their tougher mid season run. I see no reason to be starting Mcdonald this year, if he manages to hold his average through the tough period he might be a strong late season upgrade.
Risk massively outweighs the gain here, look elsewhere.

[LordSneeze]

Name: Bacher Houli
Club: Richmond
Price: $516,100
2015 Avg: 94.8

Opening 8 Opponents: Car (74.33), Coll (97.14), Ade (86.71), WCE (92.67), Mel (96.43), Port (95.75), Hawks (84.14), Syd (74)
Opening 8 Stadiums: MCG x6 (85.87), ES (84.36), DS (94)

Injury News: No Injuries to report

Analysis: Another tiger coming off a career best year. A half back flanker that ranked 3rd in rebound 50’s behind Shaw and Hurley. In addition to that he ran at a disposal efficiency of 80.2% and averaged 2 clangers per game. One thing people normally miss is he gave away 33% less free kicks last year aswell. The lowest amount overall amongst all defenders. He had one of the highest inside 50 and goal assist averages for defenders and it was all done in only 85% TOG.
To me this says he puts in a lot of work, but might not have the tank. This could impact him mentally, trying to hold back a little to run out games. With Yarran coming into the team I feel this supports the theory that he wont be relied on as much for that running role.
Houli has and will always be consistent. You know what you will get. Last year he had 9 games over 100 and 8 more over 80. This equates to 77% of games over 80. If you extend this to include 2014 he still holds a 72% of scores at 80+. 

Expected 2016 average: 84
Cost per point: $6144

Pick Type: Keeper

Verdict: I cannot see Houli maintaining his stats from last year, especially with the arrival of Yarran. At best I see him dropping back to an 84 average. With the majority of games falling in that 80-90 range.
He does have a fairly favourable draw to start the year, but I feel at his price he is too much of a risk to start. Depending on how the seasons go he might be a good POD to bring in towards the end as he has proven he can pump out periods of huge scores.