Rucks

[enzedder]

Weird that you can't trust any of those guys but can Mummy

Those guys have much better history than Mummy

They really don't. The only ones that you can argue are Goldstein (which I have), Sandi (suspended round 1) and maybe Sauce.

Stef Martin has NEVER played 22 games in his career. He has had back to back years of around a 110 average which is a positive, but he isn't going to improve past that and is priced at top dollar at 30k more then Mummy. He will get his 20 touches a game which will see him still be a good DT option and the less rotations should benefit him, but I'd prefer Mumford.

Nic Nat won't play 22 games either, I am expecting about 20 games (has played 20 in 5 of the last 6 years and one season with 11), he also has an injury history and he doesn't do as much around the ground as Mumford for roughly the same price.

Nic Nat would've played every game last year had his mother not passed away.

[RaisyDaisy]

Weird that you can't trust any of those guys but can Mummy

Those guys have much better history than Mummy

They really don't. The only ones that you can argue are Goldstein (which I have), Sandi (suspended round 1) and maybe Sauce.

Stef Martin has NEVER played 22 games in his career. He has had back to back years of around a 110 average which is a positive, but he isn't going to improve past that and is priced at top dollar at 30k more then Mummy. He will get his 20 touches a game which will see him still be a good DT option and the less rotations should benefit him, but I'd prefer Mumford.

Nic Nat won't play 22 games either, I am expecting about 20 games (has played 20 in 5 of the last 6 years and one season with 11), he also has an injury history and he doesn't do as much around the ground as Mumford for roughly the same price.

Sauce is probably good for around 105 and is safe injury wise, but he had most of his big games against bottom 8 teams last year. Assuming with a tougher draw to start the season he could be a flop by that point and have to bounce back to finish as a top 5 option.

Max Gawn has 0 runs on the board and struggled against the better rucks last year as well. I don't think he has a ton of upside considering he played to his potential last year which is 102-103. 105 is probably what I expect in a best case scenario.

Mummy has the injury history but he has had 2 previous years where he has averaged over 110 and a 105 last year. The only rucks that truly influence games to the extent of Mumford are Goldstein, Sandilands and maybe Nic Nat to a degree. The year he averaged 113 and 112 he averaged 92 and 91 DT.....

GWS will improve this year and with the way he influences contests it should see him score well. Basically I think I can lock him in for 105 minimum with a ceiling over 110. If he isn't fit I'll look at Martin, Nic Nat and Sauce in that order.

Yeah sorry Mat but I just have to disagree with all of this, which would be a first because I always agree with you

Saying Stef Martin won't play 22 when comparing to Mummy is just LOL. Back to back seasons of 110+ is as good as it gets

Again, saying the same about NicNat is just ridiculous. You're talking about Mumford who misses more games than any other ruck

Like BM said, Gawn is only 24 and has not even played 40 games so his upside his quite big

If Mummy was 100k less than your points would hold some value, but being the same price as these guys means he is no where near a better pick than them. He is the riskiest of them all

[Mat0369]

The thing with Maxy is that he just turned 24, and will play his 40th AFL game in round one

Has so much improvement left in him, last year was just a taste of what he can offer

fwiw he's not in my side at the moment, but I'd pick him over Mummy

I went and had a look at Gawns stats last year to try and have a look at what he did exactly and to see how much he could prove. Against the better rucks in the comp he averaged about 90, he had two huge games against Geelong (no ruck) and Essendon (no ruck). I also remember watching him get absolutely smashed by Kreuz who just ran him all over the ground. Improving his tank (which he has done) will help him improve in those games like the Carlton one and I do expect him to be a decent player, I just see much more risk in starting him over Mumford who has the same ceiling but is much more consistent with his scoring.

He played 20 last year and the two he missed were due to a bs suspension which made zero sense.

True, but it doesn't matter how you miss them it just matters that you do.

Fairly sure the two games he missed last year were not by choice. :-\ And he had a very good season after a slow start.

Nic Nat would've played every game last year had his mother not passed away.

He did miss the two games because of that which sucked to be honest considering the circumstances. However in the other 4 years he played 20, 20, 11 and 20 games. The point is that people can't use the line that Mumford will get injured so pick Nic Nat when there is just as real a chance that Nic Nat will miss a couple games during the year based on history. I also think that Mumford will outscore him in all the games he is on the park.

Yeah sorry Mat but I just have to disagree with all of this, which would be a first because I always agree with you

Saying Stef Martin won't play 22 when comparing to Mummy is just LOL. Back to back seasons of 110+ is as good as it gets

Again, saying the same about NicNat is just ridiculous. You're talking about Mumford who misses more games than any other ruck

Like BM said, Gawn is only 24 and has not even played 40 games so his upside his quite big

If Mummy was 100k less than your points would hold some value, but being the same price as these guys means he is no where near a better pick than them. He is the riskiest of them all

The reason I brought up the missed games is because you can tell me that Mummy is going to get injured at some point during the year (which I fully expect) but you can't argue that the other guys are durable selections that will play week in week out and pump out consistent scores when history tells you that they won't play 22 games either.

I think a lot of you are missing my original point, lets forget about the injuries for all the above players and look at them when comparing their scoring ability. My original idea is picking guys that can score regardless of injury history which Mumford can and I have him ahead of all the other guys in that category bar Goldy.

The way I see it Stef Martin is top dollar for a 110 average with 0 scope for improvement. He is consistent, that is for sure, I probably should have included him in my bracket with Sandi based on the back to back averages which are exactly the same. He also has a decent run to start the year after the first two games where he matches up against Nic Nat and Goldy, however I think scoring wise Mumford could match or better him for that time period. Stef is my 2nd choice but I prefer Mumford at the price. The other thing with Stef is he is an accumulator of the ball which means he has a high floor, but he doesn't influence games the same way Mumford does. I'd rather take the risk on Mummy, know the real possibility he will get injured at some point and maybe pick up Stef at a cheaper price if he is doing his thing.

[Spite]

Mat, I'm going to keep it simple and say if you think Stef has zero room for improvement, then you haven't done your due diligence in researching him properly. Check his averages with/without leuey and the fact he expects to play 90% TOG this season and it will tell you another story.

[Mat0369]

Mat, I'm going to keep it simple and say if you think Stef has zero room for improvement, then you haven't done your due diligence in researching him properly. Check his averages with/without leuey and the fact he expects to play 90% TOG this season and it will tell you another story.

His whole 2014 was without another ruck and he scored similarly last year. Leuenberger was basically a non factor, when he played it was with Leuenberger as a forward for 90% of the season with Stef taking the majority of the ruck work. Round 1 last year Martin played 91% of the game, that was with Leuenberger in the side. The only time Leuenberger was in the ruck for the majority of the game was when Martin was suspended.

Stef is not going to see a change to his role meaning and the fact he racks up touches means he is consistent, he's fitness base will obviously help him, but he is not going to play 100% of the game or improve 5-10 points based on what he is priced, it will be 1-2 at best. You can pretty much bank on it. A couple of his better SC games he actually spent less time on the ground, but he was generally on the field for 90% of the game last year, go and have a look at the TOG% stats.

Here are some handy stats from when Mumford got injured last year.

Score launches are chains launched by an intercept possession, free kick, hit-out-to-advantage or clearance. For a ruckman, the most common way to launch a score is with a hit-out-to-advantage and in 2015, no player in the competition has launched more scores than Todd Goldstein (44), two more than Aaron Sandilands and Shane Mumford’s 42. Sam Jacobs (38) and Nic Naitanui (35) rounds out the top five.

Mumford’s score launches have contributed 152 points on the scoreboard which ranks No. 1 overall.

Aaron Sandilands (147) and Todd Goldstein (144) are ranked second and third respectively for points generated from score launches. Jacobs hasn’t missed a game since 2012 and more importantly has already served the bye which adds more to his appeal. Only Stefan Martin has averaged more disposals than him across the year (16.3), ranking fifth overall for contests attended per game.

[Capper]

Yeah i tend to agree Mat but Mummy has missed games as a result of doing something stupid and not only getting injured. Also even before he stopped on Friday night i would have never started mummy this year as his ankle is pretty bad reading all reports.

Injury may make this Mummy's last year in the AFL

[PICCOLLO]

Really looking forward to see how Mummy goes this year :)

ATM I have Goldy and Nicnat but Gawn has my attention. 

[Wall-E]

Blicavs & Gawn for me!!  8) ::)

[timmyparso]

Nicnat and Gawn. Hoping this is set and forget.

[quinny88]

Nicnat and Gawn. Hoping this is set and forget.

So tempted to do this. Saves 150k on my Goldy/Nicnat combo

[IntegralX]

The more I think about it, the less I want to start goldy. Especially if it means I can pick up an extra premium mid...

[Ricochet]

Rucks selection is huuuge this year

Start Goldy and get a jump on the rest of the pack who aren't on his level... or he can't back up last years scoring and drops back to the rest
Start NN/Gawn and they lift to almost Goldy levels (plus pick up an extra premo elsewhere)... or lose out as Goldy beats them by 10+ again

Then the other option is to start a rookie ruck and wait for a fall from Goldy/SMartin

[quinny88]

Rucks selection is huuuge this year

Start Goldy and get a jump on the rest of the pack who aren't on his level... or he can't back up last years scoring and drops back to the rest
Start NN/Gawn and they lift to almost Goldy levels (plus pick up an extra premo elsewhere)... or lose out as Goldy beats them by 10+ again

Then the other option is to start a rookie ruck and wait for a fall from Goldy/SMartin

Id be so much more willing to trial the non Goldy options if I hadnt been burned so badly by picking Maric ahead of him last year. Ill never forgive myself if I do it again haha

[Holz]

Just a reminder this is what he did between round 9 and 19

134 128 136 150 148 221 127 164 155

North should be just as good if not better next year with A fit swallow and now Daniel Wells back in (draws a tagger outside).

even without his 221 score he averaged just under 124.

I think he can go 120 this year and ill be stoked with that.

He does have a very tough draw to start though

Sloane
Martin
Gawn
Sandi

so think he will average 110 over the first 4 weeks.

[Ringo]

Just a reminder this is what he did between round 9 and 19

134 128 136 150 148 221 127 164 155

North should be just as good if not better next year with A fit swallow and now Daniel Wells back in (draws a tagger outside).

even without his 221 score he averaged just under 124.

I think he can go 120 this year and ill be stoked with that.

He does have a very tough draw to start though

Sloane
Martin
Gawn
Sandi

so think he will average 110 over the first 4 weeks.

Too early for you Holz   ;)- Know Sloane is good but not a ruck.  Think you mean Jacobs.  ;D