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Started by bowyanger, January 24, 2016, 11:41:05 AM

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Capper

Quote from: Keeper27 on March 02, 2016, 10:56:18 PM
Goldy + Martin/Gawn
Goldy + Blicavs/Martin + Currie ATM

PICCOLLO

It's basically a certainty that Mummy will get injured but he will go big while he's out on the park.  IMO it's a viable option to pick him up and hope he gets through seven rounds +

No one's under the illusion that picking him doesn't come with an element of risk but it's calculated risk and could pay off in a big way.  Not many rucks that can pull 150s and do it with regularity.

AaronKirk

Quote from: Holz on March 04, 2016, 01:27:59 PM
Quote from: AaronKirk on March 04, 2016, 12:31:10 PM
I have Mummy and NN at this stage. Dropping Goldy to NN allowed me to then bring a lower priced premo into D4 for Emac

I know I will have to trade Mummy out but if he can play the first 8-10 weeks he will end up IMO similar in price with Goldy with the excellent ruck match-up draw that Mummy has.

If he stays on the park all year its a bonus, if not he should be able to bridge the gap price wise to Goldy before making that trade.

NN a slight injury risk and Mummy a huge injury risk. Where is your cover?

Mummy will not catch Goldy. Absolute terrible pick at 570k he plays just enough not to get a discount each year.

Perhaps this will help

Total Points Each year

Goldy: 1977 1842 2392
Mummy: 1483 1573 1038

burn trades and lose points if you want but I would need 200k+ difference to even think about it.

Goldy will beat his average, smash his total score and require one less trade.

I can see it costing 200 points easy and a trade or possibly two.

Ill use that extra trade to downgrade someone and pocket over 120k.

you can make picks like this in the mid with guys like Fyfe Ablett (who are far less risky anyway) as there are lots of options to go down to.

I pose you a question lets say Mummy comes out the gate goes 100 110 30 (injured) and is now 550k. Who do you pick?


his draw isnt that good

Round 1: Max Gawn: Gawn a running machine i think he could get abit tired by the games end
Round 2: Yes easy matchup but maybe Blicavs does 3rd man up. Also Danger Selwood possibly getting his taps.
Round 3: Again easy ruck matchup but Sydney mids are quality
Round 4: Should smash Lobbe but again port mids are good
Round 5: I expect him to go big here (if not injured)
Round 6: Another weak ruck but strong mid game against the 3 time premiers
Round 7: Sandi will smash him

I have them playing 5 finalists in the first seven

Goldy 120 + Emac 70
v
Mumford 110 + Brodie Smith 90

That is what I am weighing up.


Gigantor

Did some rough price change calculations, after 9 rounds Mummy will need to have averaged 5 ppg more than Goldy to be around the same price.

If he averages the same as Goldy or less you will be having to spend money to get Goldy in.

Really don't see how Mummy will average 20 more than Goldy which imo is the only way picking him will be worth it (Unless by some fluke he remains uninjured)


Ringo

Currently have Goldy and Nic Nat.  However if I need extra cash to adjust rookies Goldy may become Martin, Gawn, Jacobs or Mummy.

Holz

Quote from: AaronKirk on March 04, 2016, 02:16:22 PM
Quote from: Holz on March 04, 2016, 01:27:59 PM
Quote from: AaronKirk on March 04, 2016, 12:31:10 PM
I have Mummy and NN at this stage. Dropping Goldy to NN allowed me to then bring a lower priced premo into D4 for Emac

I know I will have to trade Mummy out but if he can play the first 8-10 weeks he will end up IMO similar in price with Goldy with the excellent ruck match-up draw that Mummy has.

If he stays on the park all year its a bonus, if not he should be able to bridge the gap price wise to Goldy before making that trade.

NN a slight injury risk and Mummy a huge injury risk. Where is your cover?

Mummy will not catch Goldy. Absolute terrible pick at 570k he plays just enough not to get a discount each year.

Perhaps this will help

Total Points Each year

Goldy: 1977 1842 2392
Mummy: 1483 1573 1038

burn trades and lose points if you want but I would need 200k+ difference to even think about it.

Goldy will beat his average, smash his total score and require one less trade.

I can see it costing 200 points easy and a trade or possibly two.

Ill use that extra trade to downgrade someone and pocket over 120k.

you can make picks like this in the mid with guys like Fyfe Ablett (who are far less risky anyway) as there are lots of options to go down to.

I pose you a question lets say Mummy comes out the gate goes 100 110 30 (injured) and is now 550k. Who do you pick?


his draw isnt that good

Round 1: Max Gawn: Gawn a running machine i think he could get abit tired by the games end
Round 2: Yes easy matchup but maybe Blicavs does 3rd man up. Also Danger Selwood possibly getting his taps.
Round 3: Again easy ruck matchup but Sydney mids are quality
Round 4: Should smash Lobbe but again port mids are good
Round 5: I expect him to go big here (if not injured)
Round 6: Another weak ruck but strong mid game against the 3 time premiers
Round 7: Sandi will smash him

I have them playing 5 finalists in the first seven

Goldy 120 + Emac 70
v
Mumford 110 + Brodie Smith 90

That is what I am weighing up.

Goldy 120 from 22 and Emac 70 from 22 games

Mummy 110 from how many?
Smith 90 is abit optomisitc but possible

difference is

Mummy is 120k less then goldy. Smith is 170k more then Mackenzie.

you could always go say Goldy 120 + harwood 75-80 or for 30k more Goldy 120 + Seedsman 80ish

_wato

Mummy currently in my team at the moment. Can't foresee injuries and for all you know Goldy could go down in the first few rounds and then you're all stuffed. Yes Mummy has injury history but the impossible is nearly always possible and Mummy could spectacularly not get injured this year, you just never know. Backing him to best Goldy early too. All it takes is a massive game against Saints/Port/Cats/Demons etc and it'll continue through his rolling average. The man is more than capable. Goldy has a few tough opponents and you'd be nuts to think he'll go 128 again. Could start slow and be 105-110 after the first 3-4. Price plummets, cash in the bank and bam it's all good. Will take two trades but that second trade will be used to give cash to a third trade, meaning the Mummy-Goldy swap is once trade, and my points is the same if not better than those who ran with Goldy.

I'm taking the chance, because a he is a pod, and b you get nowhere without taking risks in this game. The balance of my side looks much much better with Mummy instead of splurging cash on Goldy.

Holz

Quote from: _wato on March 04, 2016, 04:27:25 PM
Mummy currently in my team at the moment. Can't foresee injuries and for all you know Goldy could go down in the first few rounds and then you're all stuffed. Yes Mummy has injury history but the impossible is nearly always possible and Mummy could spectacularly not get injured this year, you just never know. Backing him to best Goldy early too. All it takes is a massive game against Saints/Port/Cats/Demons etc and it'll continue through his rolling average. The man is more than capable. Goldy has a few tough opponents and you'd be nuts to think he'll go 128 again. Could start slow and be 105-110 after the first 3-4. Price plummets, cash in the bank and bam it's all good. Will take two trades but that second trade will be used to give cash to a third trade, meaning the Mummy-Goldy swap is once trade, and my points is the same if not better than those who ran with Goldy.

I'm taking the chance, because a he is a pod, and b you get nowhere without taking risks in this game. The balance of my side looks much much better with Mummy instead of splurging cash on Goldy.

100% disagree came 3rd and 32nd without taking any risks. The guys who beat me didn't take any big risks either.

you can say Goldy is pricey, that could be true then jump on Sloane Martin etc..

your big bold play could be good but there isnt massive upside at 570k. If it backfires then it could easily ruin your season its not a season winning move like Blicavs was last year.

_wato

Yes but to get yourself an early jump I think you need to be bold, then hold your position rather than be like everyone and then make your decision to play catch up after.

True mate. Isn't massive upside but there is some. The upside is that you take advantage of his monster scores, get enough $$ increase or Goldy losing $$ to make the trade, and it's done. Better so than riding out on Stef Martin knowing you will keep him and he's only $90k less so would pick Goldy instead.

eaglesman

Quote from: T Dog on March 04, 2016, 11:31:09 AM
Quote from: cortez on March 04, 2016, 09:07:03 AM
Anyone tempted on a set up of: Premium, Currie (cox) and have Grimley in the forward line.

Currie looked pretty good last night but all depends how he  goes when Nicholls comes back.
This also opens up another premium spot in the mids where there aren't many solid rookie options

Actually, I sort of like the structural idea. Will certainly now have a look at what players might work.
Nice idea Cortez. Always on the lookout for the weird approach early in the season.  8)

IF Nichols is injured or there is confirmation about currie role
In the side ... I'm actually considering him as r2

RaisyDaisy

I'm not picking Mummy, but o reckon Martin would be a better pick

If you don't want to start Goldy two of Martin, NicNat and Gawn would be fine

jfitty

Mumford's been put on ice in this game already with a toe injury.

It begins  :o :o

Grazz

Quote from: jfitty on March 04, 2016, 09:30:11 PM
Mumford's been put on ice in this game already with a toe injury.

It begins  :o :o

Toe injury is it, was wondering why he wasn't out there.  :(

jfitty

Quote from: Grazz on March 04, 2016, 09:36:03 PM
Quote from: jfitty on March 04, 2016, 09:30:11 PM
Mumford's been put on ice in this game already with a toe injury.

It begins  :o :o

Toe injury is it, was wondering why he wasn't out there.  :(

Yep, hopefully not that Aaron Sandilands turf toe.

Nothing serious by the sounds of it at least.

barlowlove

Barely a mention of Sam Jacobs around?

Has missed 2 games in 4 years and averaged around 102 in that time

Last 2 years averaged 115.3 and 107.1 and missed 1 game

I'm not necessarily sold on him but he seems like the pick with the least risk?