Craig Bird

[kilbluff1985]

pretty easy to see what role he plays in the nab and how he is doing

[enzedder]

pretty easy to see what role he plays in the nab and how he is doing

Yep, hasn't been in my plans at all but I'll be doing this.

[RaisyDaisy]

And the counter argument - why not spend an extra 100-150k and start a gun instead which will also save you a trade?

There's enough mid priced options already with runs on the board so why risk this?

[GCSkiwi]

And the counter argument - why not spend an extra 100-150k and start a gun instead which will also save you a trade?

There's enough mid priced options already with runs on the board so why risk this?

A 97.71 average unsubbed in 2014 surrounded by blokes like Kennedy, Parker, Hannebery, Jack, Mcveigh, Mcglynn (who averaged well) and others, shows that when given a run, is a gun. Will be a starting on baller, will be prolific. Lock.

Not saying he can't do it again but it's a lot easier to get plenty of quality possessions in a team that finishes on top of the ladder.
He's going to be on the receiving end of some very one sided games which he's never had before so will be interesting to Se how he adapts to being one of the key mids in a team that's getting beaten very week

I think these things are the key for me, The bombers are going to get spanked so its going to be hard (not impossible) for players to score big points consistently - GAJ still killed it in his first season at gold coast, it can be done. BUT effective possies are going to be harder, and if he is going well he'll attract tags (because there's not going to be many targets really), and his price makes him a dodgy pick. The reward for the risk isn't that great, he's have to go 110+ for me to start kicking myself for not picking him, if he's averaging 90-100 then he'll be one of a big enough group doing that...

[Holz]

And the counter argument - why not spend an extra 100-150k and start a gun instead which will also save you a trade?

There's enough mid priced options already with runs on the board so why risk this?

A 97.71 average unsubbed in 2014 surrounded by blokes like Kennedy, Parker, Hannebery, Jack, Mcveigh, Mcglynn (who averaged well) and others, shows that when given a run, is a gun. Will be a starting on baller, will be prolific. Lock.

Not saying he can't do it again but it's a lot easier to get plenty of quality possessions in a team that finishes on top of the ladder.
He's going to be on the receiving end of some very one sided games which he's never had before so will be interesting to Se how he adapts to being one of the key mids in a team that's getting beaten very week

I think these things are the key for me, The bombers are going to get spanked so its going to be hard (not impossible) for players to score big points consistently - GAJ still killed it in his first season at gold coast, it can be done. BUT effective possies are going to be harder, and if he is going well he'll attract tags (because there's not going to be many targets really), and his price makes him a dodgy pick. The reward for the risk isn't that great, he's have to go 110+ for me to start kicking myself for not picking him, if he's averaging 90-100 then he'll be one of a big enough group doing that...

I think thats a bit ridiculous. If he averages 90 he is a huge sucess. Priced at 64.5 and starting at 350k if he goes 90 then he makes 140k and is the 21st best forward in the comp which is very very decent for a F6. only the top 10 go 95+ so that would make him only 5 points less then the top 10, thats a huge sucess.

If he goes 90 then you should have picked him
If he approaches 100 then your kicking yourself that you missed out as he has gone up almost 200k.
If he goes 110 then i dont see how anyone can be a better pick this year.

I think he will go 80-85 and with that he isnt worth picking. anything over 85 and he is a good pick.

[GCSkiwi]

I think thats a bit ridiculous. If he averages 90 he is a huge sucess. Priced at 64.5 and starting at 350k if he goes 90 then he makes 140k and is the 21st best forward in the comp which is very very decent for a F6. only the top 10 go 95+ so that would make him only 5 points less then the top 10, thats a huge sucess.

If he goes 90 then you should have picked him
If he approaches 100 then your kicking yourself that you missed out as he has gone up almost 200k.
If he goes 110 then i dont see how anyone can be a better pick this year.

I think he will go 80-85 and with that he isnt worth picking. anything over 85 and he is a good pick.

I perhaps didn't phrase that well.

What I meant is more if he goes up to 90-100 then sure, he was a good pickup for 350k but it's not like those points can't be achieved with another player. The price change is irrelevant because at 350k he has to score keeper points to have a significant price shift, but if he's scoring keeper points then you're not trading him so price becomes moot (barring injury). On the downside, picking a 350k player in the bombers current situation leaves you very open to someone who either stagnates exactly where they are or makes very little $ gain and very little points upside, which is a real risk and every chance of happening. This leaves you with an awkwardly priced non-keeper scoring player. So what I meant was I'm only going to kick myself if he becomes one of the top scoring forwards, as in becomes a must-have player, which I don't think is likely at all. Sure, he might crack the top 10-20 forwards and good on you if you pick him and he does that, but I won't be upset if I don't pick him and that happens. Risk far outweighs reward for me.

[Holz]

I think thats a bit ridiculous. If he averages 90 he is a huge sucess. Priced at 64.5 and starting at 350k if he goes 90 then he makes 140k and is the 21st best forward in the comp which is very very decent for a F6. only the top 10 go 95+ so that would make him only 5 points less then the top 10, thats a huge sucess.

If he goes 90 then you should have picked him
If he approaches 100 then your kicking yourself that you missed out as he has gone up almost 200k.
If he goes 110 then i dont see how anyone can be a better pick this year.

I think he will go 80-85 and with that he isnt worth picking. anything over 85 and he is a good pick.

I perhaps didn't phrase that well.

What I meant is more if he goes up to 90-100 then sure, he was a good pickup for 350k but it's not like those points can't be achieved with another player. The price change is irrelevant because at 350k he has to score keeper points to have a significant price shift, but if he's scoring keeper points then you're not trading him so price becomes moot (barring injury). On the downside, picking a 350k player in the bombers current situation leaves you very open to someone who either stagnates exactly where they are or makes very little $ gain and very little points upside, which is a real risk and every chance of happening. This leaves you with an awkwardly priced non-keeper scoring player. So what I meant was I'm only going to kick myself if he becomes one of the top scoring forwards, as in becomes a must-have player, which I don't think is likely at all. Sure, he might crack the top 10-20 forwards and good on you if you pick him and he does that, but I won't be upset if I don't pick him and that happens. Risk far outweighs reward for me.

I do agree with you.

my rule is no Essendon players over 220k. had enough of that rabble if its a rookie its ok.

[sammy123]

he's in my maybe list

[ben_020285]

I think it should basically come down to if you thought he was a good pick before the players got suspended for 12 months then you should still think he is a good pick now and vice versa.

Bird should get a lot more of the ball now and play a pure midfield role but this needs to be offset by the fact that the Bombers will get thrashed most weeks so the SC points allocated to them per game will be low.

He was in my team before all this Essendon drama went down so he is still there now. I think he will average 90 - 95.

[Grufflez]

And the counter argument - why not spend an extra 100-150k and start a gun instead which will also save you a trade?

There's enough mid priced options already with runs on the board so why risk this?

Maybe you get Libba & i get Bird on a gut feeling, Libbe gets injured early and misses 2 months of footy...i win, unlikely theory but the point is anything can happen, what one person thinks is logical another may disagree.
Maybe my mid rookie performs better than your Fwd or Bck rookie as well.

[GCSkiwi]

And the counter argument - why not spend an extra 100-150k and start a gun instead which will also save you a trade?

There's enough mid priced options already with runs on the board so why risk this?

Maybe you get Libba & i get Bird on a gut feeling, Libbe gets injured early and misses 2 months of footy...i win, unlikely theory but the point is anything can happen, what one person thinks is logical another may disagree.
Maybe my mid rookie performs better than your Fwd or Bck rookie as well.

I think injuries are never worth considering unless you're looking at someone who has a string of the same sort of injury going on... Libba blew his ACL, prior to that other than being a space cadet sometimes he was solid, and scoring well. Exactly the same scenario could happen in reverse, Bird could get an early injury etc etc. But Bird doesn't have the scoring history. So unless there's a good reason to project a potential injury, that's not worth worrying about. The rookie situation is something worth considering as mid rookies tend to do better than others.