Do players "steal" points off each other?

Started by Money Shot, January 09, 2016, 11:39:57 AM

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Money Shot

I always see people saying "Danger coming in will affect Jelwoods scoring as he will steal points" but I don't actually think that is the case really. I would just like too see if you guys have any proof of where this has happened.

Pendles was an elite scorer with Beams and Swan both averaging very highly and so was say Ablett when he had a gun Geelong midfield.

I just don't think it is as big a problem as what other people think, would love your thoughts.

RaisyDaisy

The whole point stealing discussion doesn't really impact guns IMO

2nd and 3rd tier players might drop a little, but the best are always going to get their 25+ touches each week and I cant see it impacting their scoring at all

If we assume that Geelong are going to win more games now, that means they should score more points overall as winning teams generally have a larger share of the 3300 points than the losing team, and this shouldn't see a reduction to Danger and Jelwoods scoring

I cant think of too many instances where players have gone to a new club and it's impacted their team mates scoring. Look at Sydney - Buddy came in and it didn't stop all their other guns averaging what they usually do. Beams into Brisbane didn't change much either, granted Hanley wasn't around much

TL;DR It shouldn't be a problem


fanTCfool


ronl

Just off the top of my head Martin/Delidio, Montagna/Riewoldt, Bartel/Johnson, Murphy/Judd, etc, etc.  I'm sure there are heaps more

shaker

Ball pigs are ball pigs put them in any team with any one and they will still be ball pigs , just a matter of picking the right ball pigs  :P

Peter


quinny88

Only thing you should worry about is how a new player coming in will affect a certain players role. In Selwoods case it will help him not hinder him.


Sabretooth Tigers

 :)
Look at the Woods when Pendles, Swan, Beams and Sidebottom were all killing it. Depends purely on the quality of the players as RD stated.  Cheers mate.    :D

Footyrulz

No. As every player in the match has to add up to a huge 3300 points, one player scoring 50 points more than their predecessor (eg. Danger 50 more than Kelly) will take just over 1 point away from every other player (eg. Selwood). In other words, it makes very little difference.

However, a new player coming in does make a difference if they steal another player's midfield time. For example, Motlop may be forced to play up forward more, meaning his scores may fall.

If anything, Danger will help Selwood, as Geelong may improve their ladder position, and therefore boost Selwood's scoring potential.

fanTCfool

Quote from: Footyrulz on January 10, 2016, 04:09:56 PM
No. As every player in the match has to add up to a huge 3300 points, one player scoring 50 points more than their predecessor (eg. Danger 50 more than Kelly) will take just over 1 point away from every other player (eg. Selwood). In other words, it makes very little difference.

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Mat0369

Quote from: fanTCfool on January 10, 2016, 08:09:39 PM
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The math is slightly out since 22 + 22 = 44 but it's close enough to one point per player.

GCSkiwi

I think it depends a lot on the dynamics of the situation. It happens but not in the way people think it does, eg a team like the Swans you've got DanHan, JPK, Titch, Parker, KJack and McVeigh who all averaged close to or above 100. But the reality is that in any given game, ~4 of them will probably go big, plus a couple of the less regular scorers (like Tippett, Franklin) and a couple of left field options, while 2 of those top 6 won't go so well. But it's swings and roundabouts in most cases. If you add another marquee player to that list, then it just means another one in the pack to share it around... So everyone's average might take a small hit but most weeks those guys will still do well. However in the case of Danger going to Geelong, it could definitely benefit Jelwood as he's had some extremely good midfield support but not the sort of elite that Danger brings, which means he's copped a lot of attention. Still hard to say exactly how things will change but there's definitely the possibility that life gets easier for Jelwood and the two combine well and both make monster scores, and the 'stealing' is from other guys who don't see as much of the pill any more. The reality is that it's a lot of speculation and crystal ball gazing that is pretty hard to predict and not overly worth worrying about...

Footyrulz

Quote from: fanTCfool on January 10, 2016, 08:09:39 PM
Quote from: Footyrulz on January 10, 2016, 04:09:56 PM
No. As every player in the match has to add up to a huge 3300 points, one player scoring 50 points more than their predecessor (eg. Danger 50 more than Kelly) will take just over 1 point away from every other player (eg. Selwood). In other words, it makes very little difference.

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Let's say Danger comes in for Kelly, for example, and scored 50 more. Then there are 50 less points to split among the other 44.

Therefore, it's just over 1 point lost for each player, which is not worth worrying about.

Holz

Quote from: Footyrulz on January 15, 2016, 11:02:40 AM
Quote from: fanTCfool on January 10, 2016, 08:09:39 PM
Quote from: Footyrulz on January 10, 2016, 04:09:56 PM
No. As every player in the match has to add up to a huge 3300 points, one player scoring 50 points more than their predecessor (eg. Danger 50 more than Kelly) will take just over 1 point away from every other player (eg. Selwood). In other words, it makes very little difference.

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Let's say Danger comes in for Kelly, for example, and scored 50 more. Then there are 50 less points to split among the other 44.

Therefore, it's just over 1 point lost for each player, which is not worth worrying about.

or Danger comes in for kelly and wins 10 more disposals then kelly would have. thats 10 less disposals for the ball winning mids of that 3-4 of them are selwoods. that 4 touches less a game and a drop of 10 points.

thats an extreme example of the other side.

Footyrulz

Quote from: Holz on January 15, 2016, 11:06:21 AM
Quote from: Footyrulz on January 15, 2016, 11:02:40 AM
Quote from: fanTCfool on January 10, 2016, 08:09:39 PM
Quote from: Footyrulz on January 10, 2016, 04:09:56 PM
No. As every player in the match has to add up to a huge 3300 points, one player scoring 50 points more than their predecessor (eg. Danger 50 more than Kelly) will take just over 1 point away from every other player (eg. Selwood). In other words, it makes very little difference.

?¿?¿?¿
Let's say Danger comes in for Kelly, for example, and scored 50 more. Then there are 50 less points to split among the other 44.

Therefore, it's just over 1 point lost for each player, which is not worth worrying about.

or Danger comes in for kelly and wins 10 more disposals then kelly would have. thats 10 less disposals for the ball winning mids of that 3-4 of them are selwoods. that 4 touches less a game and a drop of 10 points.

thats an extreme example of the other side.
This in unrealistic though, as Danger will not steal Selwood's disposals, but rather help Selwood gain more himself. Of Danger's extra 10 disposals, it likely that some will be handballs to Selwood, or they will be handball receives from Selwood.

The top midfields in the comp (eg. Freo, Sydney) help each other, as shown by the averages of Neale, Mundy, Fyfe, JPK, Hanners, Parker and T Mitchell. They all average 100+. The introduction of Neale only improved the averages of Fyfe and Mundy across the last 2 years, while Hanners lifted his average with the increased playing time of Mitchell.

Of course, if someone is forced to play forward (eg. Barlow), there scores will diminish. This is only likely to happen to the likes of Motlop, Guthrie and Caddy though. Selwood should play full time midfield as always.