Sloane ...

[RaisyDaisy]

I've currently got him in my side (him or jelly) but am starting to think that 570K isn't exactly a bargain. At 500k he's a lock, and I can't doubt the concern about Danger leaving and that great analysis by DC

Shell out a lazy 20-30K and grab Gray is sounding a bit more assured. Heck, even JPK who nobody seems to be considering

[Grazz]

I would have thought that Brodie Smith would get the tag before Sloane

What makes you think that mate ?

More outside, more damaging by foot, and easier to tag/limit his impact

Fair points but can't help but feel others will be inline ahead of him for a tag. Not out of the realms of possibility though depending on where he plays.

I'm an outside looking in, so you'd know more than me man.  I'd be interested to know who you think would get tagged before Smith though?

Would not surprise to see teams tag him off the backline to stop his run and carry which is damaging with his foot skills. Smith I suspect will get minutes in the middle in 2016 with the lower rotations but I feel he will used sparingly in the gut's for a few minutes each game, Pyke has already hinted Smith's best position is off half back(will need to wait and see on that). My gut tells me Sloane is the obvious target mate with Crouch being another after those two it starts to get thin as to who else I think may cop it. We are going to need a few to step up in the middle in 2016 with the loss of Danger and the lower rotations thats for sure. If indeed Smith plays predominantly as a mid rather than off Halfback then he is certainly a candidate for a tag but as said I feel he'll be used sparingly each week in the middle which leaves others vulnerable to it.

[Mat0369]

Did some research on Sloane as i have seen him in many teams and have been had recommendations to put him in. I thought I'd just let you guys know my findings to make some peoples selection decision on him a bit easier. I reckon although he looks underpriced he could be a bit of a trap (and i'm not saying he won't be a good pick but based on my findings I have taken him out of consideration). My data used is from both the 2014 and 2015 seasons and does not include his injury/sub games.

Wins = 123, 120, 60, 115, 133, 130, 120, 83, 90, 104, 91, 98, 80, 126, 108, 145, 105, 145, 124, 123 = Ave. 111.2

Looks like a great selection when you see his scores in wins, with some huge scores posted, and only 3 scores < 90.
However, when you look at the losses is where things start to get a bit pearshaped and alarming.


Losses = 74, 86, 89, 77, 102, 75, 106, 93, 96, 65, 96, 87, 88, 100, 105, 130 = Ave. 91.8

Now this is where it looks bad for those selecting and considering Sloane, especially because of their opening fixture. Of his 16 losses in the past 2 seasons, he has had just one score above 106 which is a serious problem. Now some of you might be thinking that this doesn't matter cause if they win he will score well, but have a look at the first 8 games for the Crows in 2016 (NM, Port, Rich, Syd, Haw, Fre, WB, Geelong). Unlikely, but with their list changes I honestly could see Adelaide stumble to 0-8 by round eight. They sure have drawn a short straw with this fixture, however in terms of SC, this draw (if they do lose) will greatly affect Sloane, and along with the tag, could see him fall to an average of approx. 90-100 by round 10, and he could actually be quite cheap to bring in then. Just a suggestion, I love Sloane as a player and this is nothing against him, but more of a warning for those considering him. Any opinions are welcome, and hope it helps.

I did something similar with Hanners last year but I had a look at a few seasons. The reason was to see if his form improved between wins and losses. I'll see if I can find my post. The difference with Hanners though is he was receiving heavy attention during that period and the midfield didn't change all that much (like losing Danger).

[DMCC10]

Smith may well get the tag ahead of Sloane but even so, he has scored very poorly in losses without it anyway, so either way, its more the fixture side of it and his scores in losses that I am trying to get across

Would you be able to do the same analysis on Danger please mate?

My thinking is that Sloane will have to step up in Danger's absence. If Danger show's a similar trend then I may have to stay away, but if he show's he scored well in losses too then there is room for Sloane to improve on those stats as a #1 mid

Again, just my thinking

Hey Rico, made a quick analysis of Danger for you. For Danger I used 90 games of data from 2012-2015. The thing I noticed with Danger was that he does score less in losses, however he has the odd huge scoring game (e.g. the 188 last year when him and Fyfe had that battle). Overall, these were my findings, hope these help:

Wins = Averaged 118 from 52 wins (above 110ppg in 60% of wins, and less than 100 in 30.7% of wins)

When he played in wins, majority of the time (60%) he scored well over 110, proving he statistically scores better and more consistently in wins. Other thing I noticed is that in wins he only had 8/52 (15.3%) games under 90 so when he played a "poor game" he still scored reasonably, however in losses his probability of going under 90 was a lot higher (12/38 =31.6%).

Losses =Averaged 107 from 38 losses (above 110ppg in 36.8% of losses, and less than 100 in exactly 50% of losses)

Based on that, you can tell his 107 average is boosted up a bit by the huge scores which we all know he is capable of, however as a whole, we can conclude that generally he averages 11ppg worse in losses (closer range than Sloane however whose was a 20ppg difference between wins/losses)

[Ricochet]

Thanks mate, that's great stuff. Given us a fair bit to consider

[Peter]

Excellent work DMC

Interested to know your analysis on JPK as my gut feel has been that he is outstanding in tough games, but no where near as prolific scoring  when playing weaker teams

[Grazz]

Yep nice work DMC.  ;)

[Mat0369]

My Hanners numbers that I posted last year for comparison

I just did a quick calculation on Hanners games since 2012

Win
34
55 (sub)
121
43
121
120
133
48 (sub)
70
94
82
119
71
80
104
88
70
118
141

Total: 1712
average: 90.1

new season
85
102
140
107
131
112 (draw)
113
129
84
93
122
145
87
73
47
111

Total: 1681
average: 105

new season
82
113
138
123
159
97
104
137
55 (injured)
54
65
104
140
76

Total: 1447
average: 103.4

Loss
89
78
68
38
103
42

Total: 418
Average: 69.7

new season
97
43
112 (draw)
60
79
83
66

Total: 540
average: 77.1

new season
57
107
67
154
63

Total: 448
Averaga: 89.6

I am missing one losing game score from 2013

If you don't count the injury game last year his average actually improves to 107 in a winning team.

I think it is a bit of both. As I said earlier, if you think the Swans are going to win a heap of games then he is going to be really good value.

I think the further you look into it he is actually improving some of those flop scores when they lose. The last 63 was the GF so he actually managed to average 96.25 in losses in the regular season. He is starting to gain consistency and is the one guy in the league that has flogged the Crowley tag multiple times.

KJack is another one. at a similar price that is worth looking at.

Now this is Sloane since 2012. I didn't include 2015 since DMC already did it

WIN

2012

1. 114
2. 97
4. 125
5. 121
6. 125
7. 112
8. 113
10. 178
12. 95
14. 77
15. 118
16. 86
17. 141
19. 103
20. 95
23. 87

Sum: 1787
Games: 16
Average: 111.69

2013

2. 100
4. 146
7. 105
8. 129
9. 72
14. 76
17. 97
20. 180
22. 116
23. 128

Sum: 1149
Games: 10
Average: 114.9

2014

4. 127
5. 105
6. 123
9. 112
11. 136
13. 127
15. 120
16. 143
18. 78
20. 172
23. 141

Sum: 1384
Games: 11
Average: 125.82

Total average over 3 years: 116.77

Loss

2012

3. 76
9. 77
13. 106
18. 100
21. 76

Sum: 435
Games: 5
Average: 87


2013

1. 89
3. 100
5. 82
6. 87
10. 134
11. 105
12. 94
15. 112
16. 77
18. 122
21. 102

Sum: 1104
Games: 11
Average: 100.36

2014

1. 103
2. 102
3. 122
7. 104
10. 83
12. 110
14. 84
17. 105
19. 112
21. 105
22. 111

Sum: 1141
Games: 11
Average: 103.73

Total average over 3 year span: 99.26

Obviously no Danger is the big question mark still since most of these games were played with Danger (2013 - Round 17: 97 Round 18: 122). The numbers look good though since in this period he has raised his scores in both wins and losses. If they win 11 games with a similar average it would probably work out to a total season average of 114. So if he drops 5 ppg because of no Danger he still might be around the 110 mark.

[DMCC10]

Excellent work DMC

Interested to know your analysis on JPK as my gut feel has been that he is outstanding in tough games, but no where near as prolific scoring  when playing weaker teams

Hey Peter, did a quick analysis on JPK for you, I won't add in all the data as it'll be all over the place. I noticed that 2012 & 2014 (his 2 best SC seasons) there was a 14ppg difference between when he played the top 8 and bottom 8 teams, however the evidence to support this wasn't backed up by 2013 & 2015 so take from what you like, hope this is what you wanted :)

2012: Averaged 128.2 against the top 8 teams (114.9 vs bottom 8 teams) = 13.3ppg difference in favour of harder games
2013: Averaged 102.9 against the top 8 teams (110.8 vs bottom 8 teams) = 7.9ppg difference in favour of easier games
2014: Averaged 119.2 against the top 8 teams (105.2 vs bottom 8 teams) = 14.0ppg difference in favour of harder games
2015: Averaged 115.0 against the top 8 teams (111.7 vs bottom 8 teams) = 3.3ppg difference in favour of harder games

[GCSkiwi]

Heck, even JPK who nobody seems to be considering

I'm really battling with my starting mids because there's so much value to be picked that a host of players pretty much pick themselves... Currently my M1-5 are GAJ, Jelwood, Rocky, Libba, Crouch, I would love to pick up a Swan (not JPK though ;) ) but it's hard to justify booting any of those guys, and if I tried to add him instead of a current rookie I would need a lot of rookie options on other lines to go my way early...

[Money Shot]

This has made me reconsider Sloane but more confident in Selwood if fit.

[sammy123]

sloane would be a decent pick i reckon. could be a good POD

[Holz]

have had him locked and its probably becasue pre season dragging on and this thread but if its pendles v sloane im leaning towards pendles now. will try for both

[BomberSam]

With all the discussion in this thread, I am now leaning towards downgrading Sloane to Crouch.

Pendlebury, Ablett, Selwood, Rockliff, Libba, Crouch.

[Peter]

Thanks DMC re JPK. Differential not as stark as I thought it would be, from my own stats. Perhaps depends on timing of games played against various teams. Going to be a challenging season with so many alternatives