WXV Predictions 2016

[Purple 77]

Just thought this might be a bit of casual fun! Predictions can be anything from a Cairo premiership to a "Todd Goldstein to average 80; cost Dublin flag", the Jim Stynes medalist or a ladder prediction, which is what I've done below:

Now. This ladder is based purely from the averages each player scored last year, or from the 2014 year if they missed all of 2015. And in the case of Petracca, a conservative guess at what they might average. I expect some players to improve their average and some might slip, but in the end I think the net result should be roughly the same. I also acknowledge I may have missed an injury affected 2015 player or two that normally would be in the best XV :)

1st & Premiers - Dublin
D: Alex Rance (97), Grant Birchall (86), Heath Grundy (78), Chris Yarran (74)
M: Adam Treloar (107), Rory Sloane (105), Joel Selwood (105), Marc Murphy (103)
R: Todd Goldstein (129)
F: Dustin Martin (106), Jack Gunston (97), Jarryd Roughead (96), Jack Riewoldt (91)
U: Nick Dal Santo (91), Lance Franklin (87)
CAPTAIN: Todd Goldstein (129)

TOTAL:  1581

Super team, that some might say went backwards a little in the trade period. They slashed their depth somewhat, but Holz would be confident of avoiding a mass absence should he make the final this year due to the AFL having a week off before finals. I reckon Dublin will enact vengeance and win their second premiership.

2nd - Mexico City
D: Heath Shaw (113), Kade Simpson (93), Jimmy Bartel (87), Matthew Broadbent (83)
M: Tom Rockliff (102), Brent Stanton (101), Trent Cotchin (100), Brendon Goddard (97)
R: Ivan Maric (95)
F: Brett Deledio (113), Harley Bennell (102), Nick Riewoldt (91), Brent Harvey (90)
U: Brad Ebert (97), Sam Gray (89)
CAPTAIN: Brett Deledio (113)

TOTAL:  1566

The reigning premiers I think improved their best XV, but they are no spring chickens. Expect them to be up there again, but will their ageing stars succumb to the inconsistency of age?

3rd - Berlin
D: Jamie MacMillan (89), Shaun Burgoyne (85), Michael Hibberd (82), Michael Johnson (81)
M: Nat Fyfe (124), Jack Steven (104), Tom Liberatore (110), Brad Crouch (95)
R: Max Gawn (102)
F: Drew Petrie (86), Steve Johnson (85), Mark LeCras (82), Michael Walters (81)
U: Jack Viney (92), Chris Masten (89)
CAPTAIN: Nat Fyfe (124)

TOTAL:  1511

Went to the trading period with a clear plan; to reduce the liabilities in the team (melbourne players), and to trade for older players to make the push for a flag. Have sacrificed some long term value, and even next year a few of their best XV players won't be there, but you can't argue that Berlin will be a force next year; however, an injured or down on form Fyfe makes the Brewers vulnerable.

4th - PNL
D: Corey Enright (96), Marley Williams (86), Jarrod Harbrow (74), Nick Malceski (71)
M: Matt Priddis (113), Luke Hodge (108), Dane Swan (106), Dylan Shiel (103)
R: Matthew Lobbe (72)
F: Chad Wingard (98), Justin Westhoff (95), Cyril Rioli (93), Zachary Merrett (88)
U: Nathan Jones (91), Jack Billings (84)
CAPTAIN: Matt Priddis (113)

TOTAL:  1491

The Reindeers, true to form, were fairly quiet at the trade table and as such, have more or less retained their impressive 2015 team whilst adding long term value. A fit Jones, Malceski and Billings might push this team to winning something special.

5th - Christchurch
D: Matthew Boyd (104), Jarrad McVeigh (101), Sam Gilbert (81), Sean Dempster (79)
M: Sam Mitchell (109), Hamish Hartlett (101), Ryan Griffen (91), Koby Stevens (87)
R: Aaron Sandilands (108)
F: Leigh Montagna (111), Luke Breust (83), Jake Stringer (79), Tory Dickson (77)
U: Shaun McKernan (84), Bryce Gibbs (82)
CAPTAIN: Leigh Montagna (111)

TOTAL:  1488

The super consistent Saints look oh so very solid, with arguably the best depth in the competition. Expect them to be a top 4 contender and even premiership contender again. Can they defend their champions league title?

6th - Rio de Janeiro
D: Robert Murphy (92), Kade Kolodjashnij (89), Andrew Mackie (88), Elliot Yeo (82)
M: Gary Jnr Ablett (116), Scott Thompson (103), Travis Boak (99), Bernie Vince (98)
R: Sam Jacobs (108)
F: Mitch Robinson (93), Aaron Hall (79), Lewis Taylor (72), Cameron Pedersen (71)
U: Patrick Cripps (96), Danyle Pearce (80)
CAPTAIN: Gary Jnr Ablett (116)

TOTAL:  1482

The unluckiest team of 2015 really are a force when they can get some things going their way. A firing fit Gary Ablett could lead this team to a premiership... but will that F4 spot cost them when the times get tough?

7th - New York
D: Tom McDonald (96), Bachar Houli (96), Josh Gibson (91), Matt Rosa (78)
M: David Mundy (114), Jordan Lewis (103), Liam Picken (99), Stephen Hill (96)
R: Kurt Tippett (90)
F: Josh J Kennedy (92), Jarrad Waite (81), Nathan Vardy (78), Isaac Heeney (70)
U: Mitch Duncan (91), Shaun Grigg (91)
CAPTAIN: David Mundy (114)

TOTAL:  1480

New York look a very solid team, but has the downgrading of Shaw and Adams to Heeney, Hurn and Grigg taken away their game winning edge? Nonetheless, expect this team to do some damage this year.

8th - Moscow
D: Sam Docherty (88), Lynden Dunn (83), Clancee Pearce (78), Nick Vlastuin (76)
M: Robbie Gray (110), David Armitage (110), Dyson Heppell (105), Jaeger O'Meara (98)
R: Nic Naitanui (104)
F: Cale Hooker (91), Tom Bell (90), Jesse Hogan (78), Tyrone Vickery (78)
U: Levi Greenwood (80), Steven May (75)
CAPTAIN: Robbie Gray (110)

TOTAL:  1454

Moscow would welcome O'Meara back with open arms; that midfield is very, very dangerous. Moscow was outstanding in the first two thirds of the season, but hit dramatically hit the wall in the last third; consistency will take them places this year.

9th - Pacific
D: Michael Hurley (95), Rory Laird (94), Matt Suckling (73), Lee Spurr (73)
M: Tom Mitchell (104), Andrew Gaff (104), Marcus Bontempelli (103), Cameron Guthrie (97)
R: Jarrod Witts (73)
F: Michael Barlow (94), Devon Smith (89), Steven Motlop (88), Ben Howlett (77)
U: Michael Rischitelli (92), Alex Fasolo (76)
CAPTAIN: Tom Mitchell (104)

TOTAL:  1436

The Islanders and reigning Coach of the Year Jayman find themselves with a very youthful and talented list; all of these players should still be around in the next 2-3 years! Michael Barlow's forward status provides a competitive edge to this exciting team, but Jayman would be concerned about his D3 and D4.

10th - Beijing
D: Matthew Jaensch (84), Harry Taylor (82), Jackson Thurlow (70), Heritier Lumumba (64)
M: Callan Ward (106), Lachie Neale (104), Brandon Ellis (100), Oliver Wines (97)
R: Brodie Grundy (91)
F: Dayne Zorko (101), Allen Christensen (86), Kane Lambert (68), Christian Petracca (65)
U: Josh Caddy (94), Bradley Hill (79)
CAPTAIN: Callan Ward (106)

TOTAL:  1397

The consistency 130-135 team looks like taking another step forward, as the transformation under Toga continues to take shape. The trading in of Callan Ward makes their starting 4 midfielders... well... arguably the best young quartet of midfielders you'll find in Worlds!

11th - Buenos Aires
D: Easton Wood (86), Zach Tuohy (79), Troy Chaplin (74), Shane Biggs (73)
M: Scott Pendlebury (116), Andrew Swallow (94), Richard Douglas (92), Jack Crisp (89)
R: Tom Nicholls (81)
F: Shane Edwards (91), Jamie Elliott (77), Andrejs Everitt (75), Jay Schulz (75)
U: Isaac Smith (88), Edward Curnow (83)
CAPTAIN: Scott Pendlebury (116)

TOTAL:  1389

The team to seemingly benefit the most out of the redraft, Buenos Aires are now a competitive bunch that might be able to beat anyone on its day. A lot rests on Captain Pendlebury's shoulders, but aside from Schulz and Chaplin, Buenos Aires now find themselves with a competitive core for the future.

12th - Seoul
D: Tom Langdon (85), Travis Varcoe (77), Taylor Duryea (75), Christian Salem (74)
M: Patrick Dangerfield (120), Liam Shiels (97), Jack Newnes (91), David Swallow (86)
R: Ben McEvoy (84)
F: Tom J Lynch (88), Ben McGlynn (88), Toby Greene (83), Brandon Matera (69)
U: Lachie Whitfield (78), Jonathon Ceglar (72)
CAPTAIN: Patrick Dangerfield (120)

TOTAL:  1387

Ah Seoul, my team away from Berlin... I just like this team. There is a lot of attractive players here with genuine star potential. You could easily see Salem, Swallow, Whitfield, Greene and Matera take big steps forward this year then all of a sudden you have a top 8 contending team. Captain Danger needs to continue to guide his younger teammates though.

13th - New Delhi
D: Daniel Rich (81), Sharrod Wellingham (76), Jeremy Howe (75), Nathan Krakouer (69)
M: Steele Sidebottom (104), Kieran Jack (99), Mitch Wallis (98), Stephen Coniglio (92)
R: Stefan Martin (111)
F: Jack Darling (84), Jeremy Cameron (75), Jack Martin (72), Travis Cloke (69)
U: Tom Scully (84), Adam Oxley (76)
CAPTAIN: Stefan Martin (111)

TOTAL:  1376

I reckon New Delhi might be the feel good story of this year; just the one win in 2015 proved a miserable time, but, the dynamic coaching duo at the Tigers managed to turn draft picks 1 & 2 into a competitive team! Well done guys! Surely some more wins are on the way for New Delhi in 2016?

14th - Cairo
D: Dylan Roberton (91), Jeremy McGovern (80), Nick Smith (72), Eric MacKenzie (75)
M: Dayne Beams (113), Taylor Adams (98), Pearce Hanley (87), Heath Hocking (77)
R: Shane Mumford (106)
F: Shaun Higgins (95), Paul Puopolo (76), Rhys Palmer (75), Mark Hutchings (72)
U: Luke Dunstan (70), Travis Colyer (68)
CAPTAIN: Dayne Beams (113)

TOTAL:  1368

Cairo would be dancing with glee if they were able to have Beams, Hanley, Mumford and even their better depth players not go down injured for periods of time. Should that not happen, expect a lot more competitive Sands outfit that, although may not have a team to take them into the 2016 finals, should be capable of beating the big boys on their day.

15th - London
D: Dane Rampe (85), Adam Saad (78), Bradley Sheppard (75), Tom Lonergan (67)
M: Daniel Hannebery (115), Luke Shuey (97), Ben Cunnington (93), Jesse Lonergan (64)
R: Jonathan Giles (84)
F: Tom T Lynch (88), Chris Mayne (82), Callum Sinclair (76), Maverick Weller (72)
U: Will Langford (77), Lin Jong (64)
CAPTAIN: Daniel Hannebery (115)

TOTAL:  1332

An newly adapted youth policy has seen London lose a competitive edge... for now at least. 2016 looks like a development year for the Royals, but as long as they have Hannebery leading the way and showing his talented teammates how its done, then they won't be anything close to a basket case. As always, London would be penciling a win against Dublin...

16th - Tokyo
D: Garrick Ibbotson (80), Jason Johannisen (78), Ricky Henderson (77), Jack Grimes (77)
M: Luke Parker (100), Anthony Miles (98), Jack Redden (95), Harry Cunningham (67)
R: Zac Smith (79)
F: Luke Dahlhaus (104), Paddy Ryder (85), Jamie Cripps (77), Jarryd Blair (75)
U: Scott Lycett (72), Adam Kennedy (60)
CAPTAIN: Luke Dahlhaus (104)

TOTAL:  1328

The Samurai weren't really that far off from playing finals in 2016, and with only 5 trades to their name in the trading period, I'm a little baffled that they've managed to slip to this far on the averages ladder. But, back to good years for Grimes, Redden and Ryder, and continued improvement for Johannisen, Cripps and Lycett, then the Samurai could challenge again.

17th - Cape Town
D: Jarryn Geary (78), Brodie Smith (77), Shane Savage (74), Will Schofield (64)
M: Josh P Kennedy (110), Dion Prestia (101), Nicholas Graham (80), Dom Tyson (80)
R: Mark Blicavs (104)
F: Tom Hawkins (80), Stewart Crameri (73), Touk Miller (73), Sam B Reid (72)
U: Lachie Hunter (77), Craig Bird (72)
CAPTAIN: Josh P Kennedy (110)

TOTAL:  1325

The Cobras traded for picks 1 & 4, so for that to happen something had to give. The Cobras though do have some real promise in this team; an improved year for Tyson, Bird, Smith, Miller and even Sam Reid are possible, so really as long as they are scoring 130+ then they will be winning some games this year. Heck, Mills and Parish might just come out and wow us all yet.

18th - Toronto
D: Jasper Pittard (80), Marco Paparone (77), Sam Wright (77), Tyson Goldsack (69)
M: Jackson Macrae (100), Jack Ziebell (87), Angus Brayshaw (65), Scott Selwood (58)
R: Matthew Kreuzer (89)
F: Taylor Walker (83), Matthew Pavlich (82), Jack Watts (71), Jake Carlisle (69)
U: Andrew Phillips (68), Brendon Ah Chee (62)
CAPTAIN: Jackson Macrae (100)

TOTAL:  1237

It's not as bad as it looks for the Wolves in my opinion; although it does look like they came out second best in the redraft, they do have a balanced team and genuine talent on every line. Brayshaw, Paparone, Watts, Ah Chee and even experienced heads Selwood, Ziebell and Macrae should all improve their output, so I also see the Wolves winning some games. But, I do think they will struggle the most in 2016, but am confident in new coach Adamant to make Toronto legend roo boys proud in the long term.

[Purple 77]

The TL;DR version:

Dublin   1581
Mexico City   1566
Berlin   1511
PNL   1491
Christchurch   1488
Rio de Janeiro   1482
New York   1480
Moscow   1454
Pacific   1436
Beijing   1397
Buenos Aires   1389
Seoul   1387
New Delhi   1376
Cairo   1368
London   1332
Tokyo   1328
Cape Town   1325
Toronto   1237

[Ringo]

The London Team is going into camp in mid January on a bonding exercise to get the best out of our youthful team We will spring some surprises this year and Dublin are already running away.

[RaisyDaisy]

Nice exercise Purps

Only 100 points separating 1st to 7th which just goes to show anything can happen on any given week

As for New York we definitely lost points short term with Shaw, but long term I think we are much better off and have a few players which will improve our average

Bring on season 2016!

[Nige]

Karen's quietly confident of surprise finals berth.  8)

[DazBurg]

still feel we gambling a bit in the defense and also lack that 1 more big scoring mid

but happy for our younger ones to step up again (hoping shiel stays fit and dominates)

[kilbluff1985]

curious how many teams XV have done a rebuild and won a flag

not just WXV

[Holz]

Im predicting minor premiership then getting robbed again for Dublin.

Mexico should win this, despite being old and injury prone

[Memphistopheles]

17th - Cape Town
D: Jarryn Geary (78), Brodie Smith (77), Shane Savage (74), Will Schofield (64)
M: Josh P Kennedy (110), Dion Prestia (101), Nicholas Graham (80), Dom Tyson (80)
R: Mark Blicavs (104)
F: Tom Hawkins (80), Stewart Crameri (73), Touk Miller (73), Sam B Reid (72)
U: Lachie Hunter (77), Craig Bird (72)
CAPTAIN: Josh P Kennedy (110)

TOTAL:  1325

The Cobras traded for picks 1 & 4, so for that to happen something had to give. The Cobras though do have some real promise in this team; an improved year for Tyson, Bird, Smith, Miller and even Sam Reid are possible, so really as long as they are scoring 130+ then they will be winning some games this year. Heck, Mills and Parish might just come out and wow us all yet.

Wow, big fall from grace predicted by a former grand finalist.

I think we will surprise a few this season though.

If you take out vests (and thank god there aren't any in 2016) then the averages of some of our players change significantly including:

Shane Savage - 81
Lachie Hunter - 98 (including the elim final)
Nick Graham - 90
Tim Broomhead - 72
Longer - 72

And, all of those guys are young and we'd hope for more improvement.

I also highly doubt Will Schofield will be our D4. Trent McKenzie averaged 80+ the previous two seasons (including 88 in 2013) before 2015 and we'd expect him to get back to that level or at least 75+.

Then we'd hope for some improvement in Luke McDonald, Lukas Webb, Sam Colquhoun and a few other younger types who will be able to fill the gap behind TMac.

Other guys who had a down year but we hope will bounce back are Brodie Smith (averaged 94 in 2014), Dom Tyson (averaged 94 in 2014), Craig Bird (averaged 88 in 2014).

The oldest guys listed in our squad are JPK and Hawkins who are just 27 and there's lots of young talent for improvement to come from including Mills, Parish, Lang, Acres, Toumpas, Honeychurch, Garner, Kent, P Wright and Freeman out o the guys not already listed in some form above.

It will be a tough year for us that's for sure but, give it another 1-2 seasons and we should be looking very good. And, if our inconsistent youngsters all fire at once then we could provide a few shocks this season.

[Memphistopheles]

curious how many teams XV have done a rebuild and won a flag

not just WXV

I doubt anyone has - a rebuild is a 3 season process minimum and even then that's super quick. And, none of the comps have been going long enough for a team to go all right, then rebuild and then rise back up.

I'm hoping that Staines or Taiwan in the Asians or British can do it given another couple of seasons but, they only started the rebuild a couple of off-seasons ago.

[RaisyDaisy]

Im predicting minor premiership then getting robbed again for Dublin.

Mexico should win this, despite being old and injury prone

Mexico will be absolute cactus in 2-3 years (Sorry JROO!). 80% of their best/meaningful players will be gone. Huge bottom out on the cards but should still cash in over the next couple of years

Then we'd hope for some improvement in Luke McDonald, Lukas Webb, Sam Colquhoun and a few other younger types who will be able to fill the gap behind TMac.

Hey Hey, there's only 1 TMac and he starts at NY  :P

McKenzie isn't worthy of the abbreviation hehe

Dublin and Mexico will be battling it out for the premiership this year again, but I'm really curious to see which team finishes 3rd. For me, that's probably more interesting then the 2 horse premiership race, because I reckon half a dozen teams will be fighting for third

[Toga]

Nice work Purps! Loved the read. Sure will be a few teams fighting for finals this year, exciting to see some teams coming from the bottom of the ladder in contention!

[meow meow]

I reckon I could find a spot for Jobe Watson in the XV.

[Purple 77]

I reckon I could find a spot for Jobe Watson in the XV.

Ah. Knew some one would slip through the cracks...

Well, Christchurchs' average goes up 11, and into 4th place. I can't be arsed changing the OP though :P

[Ricochet]

NDT to finish top 6