2016 Watchlist

[Mat0369]

I am adjusting the first post to have the list of guys I am going to monitor over the pre-season based on each line and I'll update my lineups.

Defenders

Bartel - Underpriced due to the knee. Should be good for at least 90 so I see him as a safe pick


Smith - Underpriced with the concussions and was AA the previous year. With the Crows acquisitions and the loss of Danger they have more rebounding HB's and could see him push up the ground.


Andrew Mackie - Quad injuries hampered him for most of the season but he finished with a bang. He averaged over 98 from round 15 and if one of the other two falls over he is probably next in line to replace them.


Docherty - I think he could move into a more permanent midfield role this year but it will be interesting to see how Bolton uses him. He also doesn't use the ball all that well which is not great for SC. I think he is one I will monitor a bit in the pre-season and see how he goes.


Simmo - I am curious to see his role in NAB 3. I am probably only starting two defensive premiums and it looks like Bartel and Smith are best bang for buck, but if we have a full squad and he looks to be playing on the wing I will seriously have to look at him.


Jaensch - Pending the knee, he averaged close to 90 the previous season, was averaging 85 before he did his ACL and is priced at an average of 75. I see him as a cheap option to be a D6. I think either one of him or Smith should average 90, they both could but I am kind of hedging my bets here by picking both. Doesn't look like he will be ready for a while though.


Boyd - Upgrade target


Z. Williams - Will monitor to see where he fits in a healthy Giants 22 after a strong finish to last season.


McVeigh - Probably underdone so another upgrade target.


Aish - At the price he is at, he is very tempting. I figure he is going to slot into the Pies 22 and won't gain a lot of attention. He's priced at 51 and averaged close to 70 in his rookie season. He seems like a great stepping stone with upside as he won't see the tag in the Pies team. I'm starting to cool on him though because how much does he have to score for him to be worth the selection?


Harwood - Slightly more expensive then Aish but has averaged over 80 in 2014 which makes him more appealing as a stepping stone or D7. Not sure on job security so he is one to certainly watch through the pre-season


Suckling - New team but not an unfamiliar role having played for the coach at Hawthorn. He was poached to play a specific role and has no chance of seeing the vest which decreased his average. Someone I am considering more for DT and draft but could have a career year at a new club and average 90.


Mackenzie - Another mid price stepping stone option. He is cheaper then Aish so has a bit more appeal if they score similarly.


Mullett - Had a great year in 2013 where he averaged 77. He regressed 2 seasons ago and struggled with injury last season before finding it difficult to break into the team. He has a ton of talent so if he can find himself a spot in the 22 he's an automatic selection for me. Priced at a 37 average and should average 55 at worst so there is a bit of cash to be made.


Whitecross - Might break back into the side with a couple going out, pretty cheap still and if he can average 60-65 it is about what he has done through his career. Depends on available rookies but he might be one to look at.


Mohr - KPP and hasn't played in a while but another if rookies are low to look at.


S. Shaw - Same as Mohr


M. Brown (WC) - Read above


Other rookies


Mids

Gaz - Should be healthy heading into this season and is under priced due to the knee injury and what he is capable of. Should at least hold his average so is a must pick.


Pendles - Mr Consistent, has always been one of my first picked mids and will be again


Rocky - Under priced with all the injuries last year, lock and load


Parker - Concussed in round 1 and struggled a couple weeks after that, got injured again to end the season so I see him as under priced. Averaged 108 the year before and I can see him bouncing back to at least a 105 average and even taking his game to the next level. Guys like Hanners and JPK will get tagged ahead of him and Parker does it all, tackles, pressures, goes forward and can kick goals. He is locked for me.


Sidebottom -  I had him as a breakout player with Hanners last year and started both. Sidebottom after going big in round 1 got injured and that set off a chain of trades which ruined my season. I am going to back him in to bounce back and go over 110 this year. I just can't fit him in considering Parker is cheaper. Definitely one I am looking at in my draft teams.


Libba - Injury discount for a guy that can average 110. He has some issues with prep but in terms of what he is capable of on the field he has to be picked.


B. Crouch - I'm a big fan of Crouch, the only issue is the foot. I thought he could push 105 last year if he was healthy but I am a bit more conservative on him and thinking 95 is about right. Unless there is news he is getting flare ups again I will risk starting him and downgrade if he gets injured.


Simpkin - Mature body that will see a lot of time on the field considering Essendon have the suspensions. Pretty good player that just couldn't break into the Hawks team.


Fyfe - Wasn't considering him because of the back but he looks fit. I squeezed him in after shifting around a heap of cash elsewhere.


Hartung - I had him as a place holder and he looked ok the other night apart from some iffy disposal. If Crouch goes down early he could be one to sideways trade too.


Hunter - Big fan of his finish to the season and I really want to get him in. More of a DT guy due to being an accumulator but may be too much for a stepping stone and only 30k more for Gibbs. I will look at him for my draft side 100%


Gibbs - Struggled with multiple problems last year after a career best the year before. 106/107 is his best career average so he would have to explode this year to beat that. Looked good against the Hawks but I can't fit him in. Again another pick for my draft side.


Rucks


Goldy - I have been big on not starting two premium rucks in previous years, the reason being they generally don't back up unless they were named Cox or Sandi. Goldy backed up and seems to be the new Cox meaning he is worth every penny.


Lobbe - Now the solo ruck with no Ryder, has averaged 100 before and he could be a big key for those that do only go with the 1 premo, 1 mid price strategy which I have preferred in the past. I'm still considering him at R2 but haven't got him there at the moment.


Leuenberger - I toyed with him early but he doesn't seem to be fit. Could average 90 easily if he was up and going but unfortunately it doesn't look like it.


Nic Nat - My preferred R2 if I don't go with Lobbe. He seems to be over the injury issues he had a couple years back and he has a huge ceiling. Worst case he averages 95, best case he goes huge and averages 110.


Grimley - I am looking at using him at F8/R3 depending if he is named. Very good VFL form and wouldn't have minded having him at Carlton.


Currie - If named I might go Currie R3 and Grimley F8, never really had an opportunity and is hopeless around the ground, but based on price he is a lock if named.


Forwards

Lids - Under priced due to being subbed out R1 last year and was the best forward by a country mile otherwise. Tough to not start him even with the questions on his body, he should be a top forward come the end of the year.


Gunston - He was killing it up until the finger injury, he then slowed down but was still relatively productive and I think he only had one more clunker in that time frame. I think there is a good chance he averages 100 next year.


Barlow - Lock and load him with the DPP. He averaged huge scores the previous couple seasons but had injury issues and was played out of position last year.


Robinson -  He was really, really good in the back half of the year. They moved him into the midfield and he did a few run with roles and started to play as a pure midfielder. To show how good he was, he averaged 123 in his last 5 and 111 in his last 10. Priced at just under 500k with an average of 92, if he plays the role he had in the back end of last year he is locked and loaded.


Tom Bell - Another more for my draft team. I can see him improving yet again and is now closer to his family. He can butcher it a bit which sucks for SC, but he tackles, pressures and wins the contested ball while hitting the scoreboard.


Joey - The other top priced DPP player, I'm thinking he is my upgrade target but he could be a sneaky POD if I did pick him over Lids.


Wells - If he is fit at his price he is a must start. I'm not sure if I trust his body but it's too good to pass up.


McGlynn - More of a draft pick, had his season ruined last year by injury and then struggled to get selected. The year before he averaged a tick under 100 so he could be a mid price option that benefits the people with enough balls to start him. I am still not sure if he fits back into the Swans 22 after the layoff.


Andrew Walker - If he is fit and plays half back he has to be considered. One I am watching more for draft teams but he will tempt me in both.


Anderson - The kid is a gun, he is on my NAB cup watch list and if he can get regular games he will be a very nice cash cow. The only issue is where does he play?

[Mat0369]

So I made a list of players I was planning to keep an eye on through the NAB last year. I will do something similar later down the track, I had a few guys that had break out seasons and found it to be particularly useful for the draft format. Unfortunately I didn't pick these same guys in the regular format and was plagued by a ton of problems which saw me have a shocking return year to SC.

So here is my first trial at a team




Jaensch - Pending the knee, he averaged close to 90 the previous season, was averaging 85 before he did his ACL and is priced at an average of 75. I see him as a cheap option to be a D6. I think either one of him or Smith should average 90, they both could but I am kind of hedging my bets here by picking both.

Aish - At the price he is at, he is too good to pass up. I figure he is going to slot into the Pies 22 and won't gain a lot of attention. He's priced at 51 and averaged close to 70 in his rookie season. He seems like a great stepping stone with upside as he won't see the tag in the Pies team.

Mullett - Had a great year in 2013 where he averaged 77. He regressed 2 seasons ago and struggled with injury last season before finding it difficult to break into the team. He has a ton of talent so if he can find himself a spot in the 22 he's an automatic selection for me. Priced at a 37 average and should average 55 at worst so there is a bit of cash to be made.

Sidebottom - I had him as a breakout player with Hanners last year and started both. Sidebottom after going big in round 1 got injured and that set off a chain of trades which ruined my season. I am going to back him in to bounce back and go over 110 this year.

Anderson - The kid is a gun, he is on my NAB cup watch list and if he can get regular games he will be a very nice cash cow.

Leuenberger - So I had Sinclair/Zac Smith at R2 which I didn't like looking at their averages. While both should see unimpeded runs to be the guy in the ruck, I don't know if they can jump their averages enough to be consistent contributors. I had Leuenberger at F4 and had no R/F option since I had Currie. It made sense to move Leuey to R2 and use the extra safety cash I had to upgrade to Gunston.

Gunston- He was killing it up until the finger injury, he then slowed down but was still relatively productive and I think he only had one more clunker in that time frame. I think there is a good chance he averages 100 next year.

Robbo - He was really, really good in the back half of the year. They moved him into the midfield and he did a few run with roles and started to play as a pure midfielder. To show how good he was, he averaged 123 in his last 5 and 111 in his last 10. Priced at just under 500k with an average of 92, if he plays the role he had in the back end of last year he is locked and loaded.

[Fid]

I liked Sidebottom last year as well (with Beams gone), but with Treloar now in Collingwood colours I am not so sure.

[Mat0369]

I liked Sidebottom last year as well (with Beams gone), but with Treloar now in Collingwood colours I am not so sure.

Sidebottom averaged 113 with Beams, Swan and Pendles in the team the previous season. I think this actually helps him since it means he might escape some of that attention he was receiving in some of his poorer performances. Elite players will still pump out elite scores, regardless of how many other players are 'stealing' points from them.

Unrelated, I need to figure out a plan B for Jaensch and Otten so I'll have to keep playing around with it. I have 11k and two guys with pretty big question marks there just because Jaensch probably won't be ready for round 1. Otten down to a bargain basement and then Jaensch to I have no idea

[Ricochet]

Elite players will still pump out elite scores, regardless of how many other players are 'stealing' points from them.

Couldn't agree more Mat

[_wato]

Would love to have the balls to go Sidey next year but just can't bring myself to it. Had him this year and while I enjoyed some of his scores, a lot of them were rubbish also.

Treloar in will see a big change for Sidey because he will lose a lot of attention, but when he gets tagged he either dominates or really gets lost, and if you watch him, a lot of his ball will then become uncontested across half back and it takes him a load of possessions to really score well. With saying that, he's at his most dangerous when he's around goals, and with Aish + Treloar I can just see Sidey playing a little deeper forward next year as he has that knack and sense to kick them and he could become a really good weapon that Buckley utilises.

Wouldn't surprise me if we went with this

Aish, Pendlebury, Adams
Swan, Moore, Sidebottom
Elliott, Cloke, Witts/Goldsack
Grundy, Treloar, Greenwood

Balances the team and adds some much needed flexibility and dynamics to our side. Just me but I can see Sidey averaging between 105-110 purely because of his midfield time decreasing and forward time increasing (this year he played a lot on the wing, half back and half forward), none on ball

[Mat0369]

I started with him so I got the 130 odd in round 1 then had to trade him out. He and Hanners were supposed to be my POD's in the midfield and it was looking brilliant early, then I messed up by bring in Gaz in round 2..... Looking at his scores he hit two mini form slumps after that but came out firing with tons

My basic thinking is scoring wise I can see him getting closer to where he was a couple years back, that means he has scope for improvement and should rise in price. Being able to push forward and snag a couple is a good thing, I think he will also have a ton of freedom because Treloar isn't just an outside player and will add some grunt while Aish adds some class next to him. This would help his play and help him impact games more resulting in his PPG going up.

So pretty much I am where I was last year with him, but he is much cheaper to start the season. I'm happy to back my gut in on this one but I guess it is just going to come down to how I can fill out my team once injuries start hitting in the pre-season.

[fasttrack13]

Would love to have the balls to go Sidey next year but just can't bring myself to it. Had him this year and while I enjoyed some of his scores, a lot of them were rubbish also.

Treloar in will see a big change for Sidey because he will lose a lot of attention, but when he gets tagged he either dominates or really gets lost, and if you watch him, a lot of his ball will then become uncontested across half back and it takes him a load of possessions to really score well. With saying that, he's at his most dangerous when he's around goals, and with Aish + Treloar I can just see Sidey playing a little deeper forward next year as he has that knack and sense to kick them and he could become a really good weapon that Buckley utilises.

Wouldn't surprise me if we went with this

Aish, Pendlebury, Adams
Swan, Moore, Sidebottom
Elliott, Cloke, Witts/Goldsack
Grundy, Treloar, Greenwood

Balances the team and adds some much needed flexibility and dynamics to our side. Just me but I can see Sidey averaging between 105-110 purely because of his midfield time decreasing and forward time increasing (this year he played a lot on the wing, half back and half forward), none on ball

Can't see Sidey playing forward... I think he will play a lot more through the half backline... Our forward line is stacked now:
Howe Moore DeGoey/Swan
Elliot Cloke Fasolo

He will get so many cheap possessions that he is a better chance to average 110+ through 50/50 HB/MID time. Watch his role nab cub but if he's floating through the midfield and half back I wouldn't hesitate making him your 4th picked midfield premium.
Midfield is too stacked and not flexible which will probably force him to play there but it will help his output... Reads the ball so well!

[_wato]

Wouldn't play Sidey across half back, simply because he has no instinct in his body that says I need to defend, and yes he is a two way runner but he is much more effective across half forward than half back. Fasolo won't get a game and it wouldn't surprise me if Howe starts up the ground. De Goey will come off a bench and fight Broomhead for a spot too.

Langdon, Brown, Frost    + Ramsey, Toovey, Goldsack, Marsh, Oxley, Maynard, Golds
Williams, Reid, Varcoe

Reason I wouldnt choose him if he played that role is because of Ryan Griffen.. Didn't average great numbers simply because of his low ball numbers and uncontested ball winning abilities, remembering that scoring goals are +9 so are worth a hell of a lot in scoring, and assisting others, doing 1%'s that leads to goals, and floating across half forward meaning he is more likely to average numbers similar to Lids but not as effective.
Also have to remember that defenders are nothing like forwards.. You can't just chuck an outside pacy midfielder and expect him to play a role in your back 6. Williams, Langdon, Oxley, Varcoe already play that role and quite well may I add.

[fasttrack13]

Wouldn't play Sidey across half back, simply because he has no instinct in his body that says I need to defend, and yes he is a two way runner but he is much more effective across half forward than half back. Fasolo won't get a game and it wouldn't surprise me if Howe starts up the ground. De Goey will come off a bench and fight Broomhead for a spot too.

Langdon, Brown, Frost    + Ramsey, Toovey, Goldsack, Marsh, Oxley, Maynard, Golds
Williams, Reid, Varcoe

Reason I wouldnt choose him if he played that role is because of Ryan Griffen.. Didn't average great numbers simply because of his low ball numbers and uncontested ball winning abilities, remembering that scoring goals are +9 so are worth a hell of a lot in scoring, and assisting others, doing 1%'s that leads to goals, and floating across half forward meaning he is more likely to average numbers similar to Lids but not as effective.
Also have to remember that defenders are nothing like forwards.. You can't just chuck an outside pacy midfielder and expect him to play a role in your back 6. Williams, Langdon, Oxley, Varcoe already play that role and quite well may I add.

I know we will set up our back 6 something like
Frost Brown Varcoe
Williams Reid Langdon

But the way the game is played these days and the depth of midfield players we have Sidebottom although named on the wing will run off the CHB part of the square which is what he did most of this year and will play 30-50% of the game a kick behind of less behind the play. Never did I say he would be apart of the back 6 but instead of playing as a pure midfielder it will be more of what Oxley did this year as I don't believe he will get a game.
As for Fasolo, he will play. He's underrated he lays tackles does defensive pressure acts and has that x-factor in the air and on the ground and has elite skills. But that's another chat for best 22 forum.

[Money Shot]

Very good team at this stage. Only comment is Jaensch is more than likely going to be back around round 8-9 from memory.
Apart from that good side and good luck for 2015.

[Mat0369]

I started playing around with numbers based on rookie averages from the previous year at each position. So some guys like Oxley are now a mid but were a defensive rookie last year so I counted them at the position they were in the previous season. The reason I have done this is to figure out the difference in points between a rookie and premium in position a compared to that of position b. Obviously each rookie class is different and I did this a couple years back to get an idea as well. I will post my initial ramblings for this season as I broke it down in the next post and then have what I broke down a couple years back.

[Mat0369]

I think I am going to stick with going cheap in defense. I ran with that strategy the last few years that I have played and it worked really well to an extent. I was able to go with McIntosh/Saad/Oxley/Brown and save the cash, this allowed me to start with 4 premiums in the midfield and Jack Steven to go with 4 premium forwards. The downside was I also had Lumumba and he bit me in the ass. I also got the injury bug on the other lines which saw my ranking plummet, but I think going cheap down back was the right choice and one I will go with again as it worked in the past.

The year before (was 2013 since I took 14 off) I did the same thing. 2 guys that I saw as premiums (Goddard and Gibbs), 2 mid prices that I had seen score well in the past based on sample size and that could be potential stepping stones worst case (Hibberd and Russell so 50% strike rate there) and then rookies along the rest of the line. Right now I am thinking Bartel and Smith are my two locks, Harwood and Aish are the two mid price options and then load up on rookies. It will obviously depend on who is available come round 1 and if there is anyone during the NAB that I really like similar to Hibberd a few years back. Going with this strategy has given me a few options.

If I am feeling really ballsy I might even drop one of Aish/Harwood to another rookie if there is one named. The way I see it, the really good defensive rookies last year averaged mid 70's. Then the next batch averaged around the 50-60 mark. Let's say I get a 60 average from all my defensive rookies on the field, while the premium defenders average around 95. So I am losing 35 points per game with the two extra rookies I am starting (most teams will start betwen 1-2, I will be going with 3). Now these teams will likely take a hit in the forward line and midfield. Essentially, I am able to start a lineup similar to this based on cash

Bartel, Smith, Harwood, Hartley, Wagner, Brown (ESS), Collins, Sheehan
Pendles, Gaz, Sidebottom, Rocky, Parker, Libba, Crouch, Fiorini, Sumner, Menegola, Marcon
Goldy, Nic Nat, Currie
Lids, Gunston, Barlow, Robbo, Kerridge, Lamb, Petracca, Kommer

So I am able to go with 5 premium mids and 4 premium forwards compared to 4 and 3. You have maybe 1 or 2 Cripps type players each season if you're lucky that put up big scores, so that 80-95 range in the midfield. The next crop are generally the Touk Miller types that average around 75 ppg. In the forward line, it's about a 70-75 again. So looking at the numbers, the drop off between the 60 ppg defenders to the 95 ppg defenders totals 70 points for those two spots. The drop from the 110 ppg mid to the 75 ppg mid is 35 ppg. The drop off in production is about equal, same deal in the forward line, it is essentially a 30-35 ppg drop off between the starters and rookies.

The one difference in the teams I was playing with is the ruck line. Essentially the difference between a Nic Nat and a Lobbe is by starting Harwood/Aish at D3. Either of those guys could average in the 70-80 range if it goes right which is a 15-25 ppg drop off. Now if Nic Nat holds his average at 104, and Lobbe goes between 80-95, you're looking at the exact same drop off again.

The more I look into it as I type this the more I think it doesn't really matter who you start where. You are going to effectively lose the same PPG between your rookies and top line scorers regardless of which line you take the hit as you go deeper into the rookies. It is making sure you find the best players at the best value and making sure that you get the Cripps of the lot you should be looking ok.

[Mat0369]

This is the one I did a couple years ago so I get a sample size over a couple of years

I just broke down my numbers, I have two sets of averages for the forwards since guys like Treloar and Adams don't have DPP status anymore.

Top 6 Defenders (not including Deledio since he lost DPP): Goddard, Shaw, Scotland, Waters, Gibbs, Birchall
Top 6 Rookies: Bugg, Spurr, Hombsh, Clarke, Mohr, Morris

Top 8 Mids: Ablett, Swan, Pendles, Beams, Watson, JPK, Dangerfield, Selwood
Top 8 Rookies: Zorko, Greene, Treloar, Gibson, Coniglio, Shiel, Adams, Horsely

Top 6 Forwards (includes new DPP's but missing old ones like Dangerfield and Beams): Buddy, Nic Nat, Cox, Pav, Ryder, Roughie
Top 6 Rookies: Zorko, Dickson, Stanley, Casboult, Dev Smith and Milera

I noticed that the rookies forwards had lost the scoring averages of Treloar and Adams which bumped them down but I have posted the averages below. Forward 2 includes Treloar and Adams in the averages

Premo Def: 98.7
Rookie Def: 67.2         Differential of 31.5
Premo Mid: 123.5
Rookie Mid: 82             Differential of 41.5
Premo Fwd: 110.3
Rookie Fwd: 71            Diff of 39.3
Rookie Fwd 2: 76.3      Diff of 34


Differential between each rookie position: Defender to mid is 14.8 in advantage of the mids Mid to FWD 1 is 11 in advantage of the mids, Mid to FWD 2 is 5.7 in advantage to mids, Def to FWD 1 is 3.8 in advantage of forwards and Def to FWD 2 is 9.1 in advantage of forwards

In the premiums
Def>>>>Mid 24.8 point advantage in mids
DEF>>>FWD  11.6 advantage in Fwd
MID>>>FWD 13.2 advantage in mids.

I picked 5 premo mids, 3 premo fwds and backs, and filled the rest of the starters with rookies while leaving the rucks Goldstein and Leuenberger for now

I also did one with 4 mids and then added a premo to either the backs or fwds while calculating a score on averages.

5 premo mid team: 1921 using rookie and premium averages for all positions 181,700 left over
4 premo defenders 4 mids 3 forwards: 1911, 293,700 left over
4 mids, 4 fwds, 3 defenders: 1913.5 with 230,900 left over.

I also did one with 3 premo mids Fyfe and a 4 premo in Defense and the mids.

1911.5 with 24,800

I am thinking that a team with 4 premiums in defense and the forward line, 2 in defense and 2 mid pricers could work well. But if you can find a couple of mid price defenders like Broughton and someone else ( I currently have Hibberd in this test team) you may be better off running with only 2 premium defenders. If say Broughton can average a 90 on the year, the team score lifts to 1927.6 with 39,900 remaining which is the highest of the lot.





So basically looking at this data it is skewed because I didn't use Lids to boost the defense premium averages and didn't use where guys were positioned the previous year. Now looking at it quickly, there aren't as many super premium mids in terms of average as there were heading into the 2013 season. However the forward and defense averages also seem a lot higher back then. I think I am still leaning towards going cheaper in defense, I will make a couple different lineups on predicted averages and see what sticks.

[eaglesman]

Fascinating reading all this. One thing to consider perhaps is the fact the data could be slightly skewed given that gws allowed for an abundance of rookies which may not necessarily be available now.

Although the Essendon drama does not make this as bad to a degree