Player X v Player Y

Started by ben_020285, December 22, 2015, 02:28:20 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

ben_020285

Quote from: fasttrack13 on January 22, 2016, 01:01:26 AM
2 of:

Pendlebury + Gray + Sloane

i think they could all go 120, sloane the most likely to dip lowest in price... but the way he started and ended the year (before and after injuries) really make it hard not to want him  >:(

Pendles way ahead of both.

Gray ahead of Sloane due to uncertainty with Danger gone.

Ricochet

Quote from: ben_020285 on January 22, 2016, 07:08:21 AM
Quote from: fasttrack13 on January 22, 2016, 01:01:26 AM
2 of:

Pendlebury + Gray + Sloane

i think they could all go 120, sloane the most likely to dip lowest in price... but the way he started and ended the year (before and after injuries) really make it hard not to want him  >:(

Pendles way ahead of both.

Gray ahead of Sloane due to uncertainty with Danger gone.
+ Adelaide's draw

enzedder


Ricochet

Quote from: enzedder on January 22, 2016, 11:59:08 AM
Rance v Bartel
Bartel

He's underpriced and Rance has just come off his best ever year

fasttrack13

Quote from: MC on January 22, 2016, 04:04:21 AM
Quote from: fasttrack13 on January 22, 2016, 01:01:26 AM
2 of:

Pendlebury + Gray + Sloane

i think they could all go 120, sloane the most likely to dip lowest in price... but the way he started and ended the year (before and after injuries) really make it hard not to want him  >:(

Let's be honest here, the real question should be:
"I've locked in Pendles, so please help me to pick from Sloane/Gray as my 2nd choice..."


Picking Pendles should require no convincing, he's been a top choice for ever and even in his worst season for a long time still managed to be the highest-scoring mid in the comp. What else do you want/need?
His last 5 seasons:
2011 - 22/129
2012 - 18/125
2013 - 22/127
2014 - 21/124
2015 - 22/116

So his 'level' is around the 125 mark... no great leap of faith to suggest that he's likely to hit it again...



Anyway, back to the question...
Sloane vs Gray

I suggest Gray, merely because of the consistency and predictability. Sloane is a relative unknown in the absence of Danger (as is Adelaide), whereas Port I feel will only get stronger in 2016 - I predict a top 4 finish.
To be fair I feel like Sloane has a higher ceiling, though Gray will be a safer choice to finish the season as a top 10 mid.


Quote from: ben_020285 on January 22, 2016, 07:08:21 AM
Quote from: fasttrack13 on January 22, 2016, 01:01:26 AM
2 of:

Pendlebury + Gray + Sloane

i think they could all go 120, sloane the most likely to dip lowest in price... but the way he started and ended the year (before and after injuries) really make it hard not to want him  >:(

Pendles way ahead of both.

Gray ahead of Sloane due to uncertainty with Danger gone.

I looked into this article http://www.jockreynolds.com.au/2013/01/09/the-collingwood-conundrum-mick-the-mad-irishman/
Definitely think he's a lock now as Treloar will help his scoring. Don't know what I was thinking before.

Cheers guys!

LordSneeze

Quote from: enzedder on January 22, 2016, 11:59:08 AM
Rance v Bartel

Bartel by a country mile.

Cheapers
Proven 100+scorer.
Bartel's worst year is higher than Rance's career average. You take out partel's 5 and he averages 95.8 last year

enzedder

Quote from: Ricochet on January 22, 2016, 12:01:39 PM
Quote from: enzedder on January 22, 2016, 11:59:08 AM
Rance v Bartel
Bartel

He's underpriced and Rance has just come off his best ever year
Quote from: LordSneeze on January 22, 2016, 12:58:27 PM
Quote from: enzedder on January 22, 2016, 11:59:08 AM
Rance v Bartel

Bartel by a country mile.

Cheapers
Proven 100+scorer.
Bartel's worst year is higher than Rance's career average. You take out partel's 5 and he averages 95.8 last year

Yeah... I've been planning with Bartel in mind... Just mindful he'll be 33 this year and think Rance will back up. DPP Bartel and cheaper too...gives him the edge... 50-60 k will come in handy no doubt.
Thanks  :)

Spite

Quote from: fasttrack13 on January 22, 2016, 12:55:41 PM
Quote from: MC on January 22, 2016, 04:04:21 AM
Quote from: fasttrack13 on January 22, 2016, 01:01:26 AM
2 of:

Pendlebury + Gray + Sloane

i think they could all go 120, sloane the most likely to dip lowest in price... but the way he started and ended the year (before and after injuries) really make it hard not to want him  >:(

Let's be honest here, the real question should be:
"I've locked in Pendles, so please help me to pick from Sloane/Gray as my 2nd choice..."


Picking Pendles should require no convincing, he's been a top choice for ever and even in his worst season for a long time still managed to be the highest-scoring mid in the comp. What else do you want/need?
His last 5 seasons:
2011 - 22/129
2012 - 18/125
2013 - 22/127
2014 - 21/124
2015 - 22/116

So his 'level' is around the 125 mark... no great leap of faith to suggest that he's likely to hit it again...



Anyway, back to the question...
Sloane vs Gray

I suggest Gray, merely because of the consistency and predictability. Sloane is a relative unknown in the absence of Danger (as is Adelaide), whereas Port I feel will only get stronger in 2016 - I predict a top 4 finish.
To be fair I feel like Sloane has a higher ceiling, though Gray will be a safer choice to finish the season as a top 10 mid.


Quote from: ben_020285 on January 22, 2016, 07:08:21 AM
Quote from: fasttrack13 on January 22, 2016, 01:01:26 AM
2 of:

Pendlebury + Gray + Sloane

i think they could all go 120, sloane the most likely to dip lowest in price... but the way he started and ended the year (before and after injuries) really make it hard not to want him  >:(

Pendles way ahead of both.

Gray ahead of Sloane due to uncertainty with Danger gone.

I looked into this article http://www.jockreynolds.com.au/2013/01/09/the-collingwood-conundrum-mick-the-mad-irishman/
Definitely think he's a lock now as Treloar will help his scoring. Don't know what I was thinking before.

Cheers guys!

That article is 3 years old and goes on to say how when one of the big three missed out, the others performed better. So Treloar coming in should decrease his scoring - according to that article.

Honestly guys I am scared of starting pendles and I'm a pies supporter. Adams should get bulk mid time, more so than Pendles just because he sucks at any other position. Add in Treloar, Sidey will probably get shifted about and I think so will Pendles...and then there's Greenwood too.

Personally I think he's priced at what he will average. Will be a top SC scorer this year but won't be 120+ like a few of you are expecting and I don't think he's under-priced. Pies need to win more games for players to score more points as a whole (there's a correlation) and I just don't see us winning more than 1-2 games more than last year.

fasttrack13

He averaged 127 when both beams and swan played with him and less  116 when only swan or beams played with him which the article says. Proves he scores better with a better midfield around him as it takes the pressure off.

He will score much better this year and is certainly under priced... He averaged 124 the previous year when the same thing happened to us but he had beams + swan + sidebottom at basically their peaks apart from swan.

i can also see us winning much more games as there were a few close ones this year which we lost on the back of poor decision making which a year more experience will help.
Correlation of more wins more points is less relevant to pendles as he averaged 123:111 W:L from memory. Even if pies did win 4 more games this year, his estimated average only increases by another 2.4 points to 118.6 which still doesnt account for the other 6 points he lost on when he had a host gun mids around him.

Spite

Quote from: fasttrack13 on January 22, 2016, 05:37:11 PM
He averaged 127 when both beams and swan played with him and less  116 when only swan or beams played with him which the article says. Proves he scores better with a better midfield around him as it takes the pressure off.

He will score much better this year and is certainly under priced... He averaged 124 the previous year when the same thing happened to us but he had beams + swan + sidebottom at basically their peaks apart from swan.

i can also see us winning much more games as there were a few close ones this year which we lost on the back of poor decision making which a year more experience will help.
Correlation of more wins more points is less relevant to pendles as he averaged 123:111 W:L from memory. Even if pies did win 4 more games this year, his estimated average only increases by another 2.4 points to 118.6 which still doesnt account for the other 6 points he lost on when he had a host gun mids around him.

The tables didn't load on my phone but once I got on the comp I saw which table you're talking about. I guess the biggest difference is that back then, Pendles didn't play up forward or down back and now he can play both pretty well so he's not 100% to play pure mid like seasons past (my opinion - if you don't agree, then I can 100% see why you'd pick him).

You're a very optimistic pies supporter if you think we will win 4 more games this year than last, love it! How did you work out the 2.4 increase from 4 games? Thanks!

Perts24


MC

Quote from: Perts24 on January 23, 2016, 08:21:47 PM
Cripps vs Adams?

Adams for sure, his role is more clearly defined.

Footyrulz

Quote from: Perts24 on January 23, 2016, 08:21:47 PM
Cripps vs Adams?
Neither, downgrade elsewhere so you can get a proper premium.

quinny88

Brodie Smith v Jimmy Bartel?

ben_020285

Quote from: quinny88 on January 25, 2016, 12:50:08 AM
Brodie Smith v Jimmy Bartel?

Bartel has proven time and time again that he can score enough for a premium defender. Smith has only done it once.

So Bartel easily for me.