The Green Vest Files

[Mr.Craig]

With the abolition of the sub rule the potential exists for players who had once been blighted by the vest to get more game time and rise in value. Here are some of the players who could benefit most in 2016...

Most Green Vests (By Team)

Adelaide

Lyons - 8
M.Crouch - 4
Wright - 2
Atkins - 2
Ellis-Yolmen - 2

Brisbane

ZOB - 4
Mayes - 2
L.Dawson - 2
Green - 2
Bewick - 2
Golby - 2

Carlton

C.Smith - 4
Walsh - 3
Holman - 2
Buckley - 2
Whiley - 2
Ellard - 2

Collingwood

De Goey - 4
Karnezis - 3
Blair - 3
Kennedy - 2
Seedsman - 2
Broomhead - 2

Essendon

Howlett - 3
Gleeson - 3
Ashby - 3
Hams - 2
J.Marrett - 2
K.Langford - 2

Fremantle

De Boer - 7
Crozier - 4
Suban - 3
Sheridan - 2
Weller - 2

Geelong

Cockatoo - 6
Horlin-Smith - 2
Luxford - 2
Stokes - 2

Gold Coast

J.Garlett - 3
M.Shaw - 2
Malceski - 2
Lemmens - 2
Russell - 2
Boston - 2

GWS

Wilson - 4
Williams - 3
Hampton 2
Hoskin-Elliott - 2
Kelly - 2
Steele - 2
McCarthy - 2

Hawthorn

Hartung - 8
Anderson - 2
Whitecross - 2
Suckling - 2
Litherland - 2
Howe - 2

Melbourne

Neal-Bullen - 5
Michie - 3
Riley - 2
Grimes - 2
Brayshaw - 2

North Melbourne

Dumont - 5
Turner - 3
Bastinac - 2
Gibson - 2
Harvey - 2
Jacobs - 2

Port Adelaide

Young - 5
Ah Chee - 5
Amon - 3
Krakouer - 2
Colquhoun - 2

Richmond

Lloyd - 7
Menadue - 4
Gordon - 4
McIntosh - 3

St Kilda

Sinclair - 5
Wright - 3
Acres - 3
Dunstan - 2

Sydney

Cunningham - 4
Jones - 3
Lloyd - 2
Goodes - 2
Towers - 2
Rohan - 2
B.Jack - 2
Robinson - 2

West Coast

Duggan - 4
S.Selwood 4
Hutchings - 3
McGinnity - 2
Newman - 2
Sheed - 2

Western Bulldogs

Hunter - 4
Dale - 4
Grant - 3
Daniel - 2
B.Goodes - 2

Most Green Vests (By League)

8 - J.Lyons, Hartung
7 - S.Lloyd, M.De Boer
6 - Cockatoo
5 - J.Sinclair, A.Young, B.Ah Chee, T.Dumont, Neal-Bullen


Mr.Craig's Top Picks


Lachie Hunter

2015 Games: 12
2015 Average: 78.2
2015 Unvested Ave: 96.1

Yes, you read right - an unvested average of 96.1! Lachie has seemingly cemented his place in the Bulldogs team, playing every game after Round 15 and he also showed his awesome scoring potential with 3 scores over 120. Including the elimination final Hunter averaged 29 disposals from Round 17 onwards and whether he retains his forward status or not he should be strongly considered.

Billy Hartung

2015 Games: 18
2015 Average: 60.2
2015 Unvested Ave: 81.3

Billy seems the most likely of any player to benefit from the removal of the sub rule. He played the majority of the season showing he was very much considered a best 22 player and showed good scoring potential in his full games with 7 scores over 80. His running ability should see him adapt to the extra playing time and result in a much higher average in 2016, making him a potential mid priced cash cow.

Matt Crouch

2015 Games: 15
2015 Average: 71.5
2015 Unvested Ave: 85.7

Crouch was a regular member of the Crows 22 from Round 6 onwards with the exception of a couple of games. 4 green vests and 1 red vest kept his average in mid priced territory and while he didn't have any huge performances for the year he was pretty consistent with plenty of scores around the 80-95 mark. His 2016 average will likely be somewhere in that zone with 90 probably the best case scenario. Given he will be priced at or above Liber, JOM and his brother it might be hard to justify selecting him despite the likely jump in value.

Brendon Ah Chee

2015 Games: 11
2015 Average: 56.7
2015 Unvested Ave: 78.6

After being in and out of the Port side for the majority of the year (mostly as sub) Ah Chee suddenly went beast mode in the last four games of the season. In that time he averaged 22.2 disposals and 95DT and certainly sent the message out that he wants to be a regular fixture in 2016. It would be a speculative pick for sure and it should be noted those performances came in relatively comfortable victories. All the same, a breakout year isn't out of the question with a price rise of 150k+ to go with it.

Scott Selwood

2015 Games: 12
2015 Average: 58.8
2015 Unvested Ave: 74.9

Selwood's plunge from greatness over the last two years has been one of the greatest in fantasy history and it wasn't helped in 2015 by four green vests. Will a change of scenery rekindle the big scores? He's probably the biggest risk and reward player on this list. Likely to be priced somewhere in the low 300k's he will need to avoid injury, score-destroying tag jobs and maintain his js in order to be a decent selection. There will likely be a group of coaches willing to take the plunge and even a return to his relatively modest 2014 average of 81 would reap a solid price jump.

Jarryd Lyons

2015 Games: 12
2015 Average: 44.7
2015 Unvested Ave: 60.7

Lyons had the dubious honour of most green vests along with Hartung in 2015. He's signed a new contract with the Crows and did string together a bunch of games in the back end of the season but question marks remain. He's yet to break 100 in his career and job security will likely continue to be an issue. He did average 64 in 2013 so there's no doubt he could add 20+ points next season but it's a matter of getting enough (good scoring) games in a row to provide value.

Matthew De Boer

2015 Games: 17
2015 Average: 57.6
2015 Unvested Ave: 75.5

De Boer had his fantasy average ruined by seven green vests in 2015 and it will lead to him being the cheapest he's been in five years. Despite seemingly being on the edge of the 22 he maintained his position in the second half of the year and did score well when given the opportunity to play a full game. Defensive assignments are of some concern to his scoring potential but a nice price rise should be in store during 2016.

Zac Williams

2015 Games: 12
2015 Average: 64.7
2015 Unvested Ave: 80

Bit of a fascinating prospect this one. Was listed as a defender in 2015 but is a chance to pick up D/M DPP or even D/F. Apart from missing a couple of games through injury he was a regular in the latter half of the season and was very consistent indeed with his scores from Round 12 onwards being 79, 80, 88, 74, 83, 90, 73, 97 and 66. You wouldn't be too disappointed with those numbers for a guy you plunked down at D4. I don't know about you but I'm interested.

Jordan De Goey

2015 Games: 16
2015 Average: 62.1
2015 Unvested Ave: 69.1

A couple of tons near the end of the season were promising signs. Probably not undervalued enough to be truly considered and Treloar and Aish rolling into town might put some pressure on his spot. He's certainly got the scoring potential but it would be a ballsy move to pick him.

Liam Duggan

2015 Games: 12
2015 Average: 45.2
2015 Unvested Ave: 58.5

Duggan put in a couple of very handy scores in big wins over St Kilda and GWS before doing his PCL and missing the rest of 2015. If he can force his way back into the Eagles side then he should be able to push his average up into the high 50's. It's questionable whether that would be enough to warrant picking him but he'll be priced around the same as a first round draft pick so might be worth a look.

Harry Cunningham

2015 Games: 19
2015 Average: 66.8
2015 Unvested Ave: 76.8

Harry was the victim of Sydney's very competitive list during the early part of the season were he was dropped for a few games and also played the role of sub multiple times. There isn't a huge differential between his subbed and unsubbed average but in combination with his strong end to the season (85 average from his last 7) there's a glimmer of potential there. The reality is with so many fantasy sluts rolling around in the team it's hard to see him consistently earning enough ball to push too far into the 80's.

Sam Lloyd

2015 Games: 12
2015 Average: 48.8
2015 Unvested Ave: 68.6

On the surface Lloyd seems like a good pick but the question needs to be asked if the removal of the sub rule will lead to him getting more full games or actually force him out of the side altogether. I think there's probably too much doubt for me but his price will definitely appeal and if he gets a nice run on early it could really work out.

[Money]

Great write up MC! Pre-season starting to warm up now!

[Football Factory]

Awesome thread .. nice work Craigy   :)

[MGK1]

Great thread idea! I like the look of Hunter if fwd and potentially Hartung :)

What was Dumonts differential if you don't mind?

[Grazz]

Nice work Mr C. ;)

[Scrads]

These guys should be quite relevant, particularly in AF with the unlimited trades and need to make money!

[pommyadam]

What was Dumonts differential if you don't mind?

Dumont vested - 30.8
Dumont unvested - 70
Dumont average - 45.5
Dumont differential - 24.5

edit: might also be worth noting that Bah Chee's last 4 games came with Wines out of the side