Goldstein - To start or to not start, that is the question

[Colley Dogs]

I can see both Martin going 110+ maybe 115. and Goldy won't go 120+ ill put my house on it. There is no much more else where you can make up those extra 5 - 10 points per week for 130-130K

For example:
Wines > Danger
Ward > Fyfe
Duncan > Pendles
Suckling >Houli
Birchall > Shaw
McCathy > Wells

I could go on but you get my drift.
All of the optionsplus more make you more points than Having Goldy over the next couple

But Cortez... I already have Fyfe, Danger, Plendles, Shaw, Houli, and Wells. So who else can I improve... Crouch to Parker? I have Parker.

The place where I've got my money is F3 (I'm currently starting with 2 ultra-premiums, followed by Wells, Kerridge, Kennedy, Menadue, Milera, McDonald-Tippa). So which of these Rookie Forwards can the money from not having Goldy improve that justifies betting against him?

For me, this isn't a question of what Goldy will average, but whether he will be in the top two Rucks. And for him to be the second highest scoring Ruck it will take either Martin or NicNat averaging 116+ (Mumford won't play a full season). Goldy won't score below 115. I'd bank on 118+. And I'm prepared to pay that coin because I think's more chance of Goldy scoring 115+ than Martin scoring 115. I currently have both, and will be disappointed with anything less than 225 gross. No other combination will come close to this imo.

Pay the money. Deal with the pain. And focus your energy on the other lines.

Martin without Leuey in 2015 (including when Leuey went down in first term in round 18):
95, 140, 120, 135, 112, 119, 108, 84, 159

So in 9 games last year without Leuey Martin averaged 119 with some pretty consistent scores. Without Leuenberger this year he has the ability to average this in 2016 which will definitely give him a top two ruck position.

Naitanui has had one of his best pre-seasons and looks to be injury free after playing 20 games last year. We all know what this guy is capabe of and there is nothing furthur to say about him

Gawn, Every year there is a ruckman who comes out of nowhere. Martin in 2014, Maric in 2012, Jacobs in 2014, Minson in 2013 etc. This year could be that year where this bloke goes 115.

As i have stated before each year since 2010 no ruckman has backed up with two years in a row in the number one spot
and only 4 players have ever averaged over 120 two years in a row. it is a hard feat that only the very best can do.

Before last year Goldsteins highest average was 113 in a season.
We shouldn't be talking about this bloke as he is a God in supercoach. There is only one God in supercoach and even he is the son of God.

History shows that the ruck position is very up and down year to year on who the absolute top scorers are. Yes there are the ones who stay premiums year after year but to stay ultra premium in this position is historically very hard to do.

Cortez, I can't disagree with the points you're making.

I currently have Martin for the precise reasons you've stated. And NicNat is my second favourite player after Cripps (I'm a Blues supporter). I've started NicNat more seasons than most, believe me.

But the idea that Goldy is going to slip down to 4th or 5th best Ruck (injuries aside) is laughable. I'm not saying he's God - there is spectrum here - I'm saying he's better than just 'plain good'. I'd say he's better than 'very good'. IMO, you're risking more if you bet on those below him succeeding over him failing.

I've made my bed and I'll sleep in it.

Next year there'll be another thread on whether you can justify spending 650K+ on Goldy. 

[cortez]

I can see both Martin going 110+ maybe 115. and Goldy won't go 120+ ill put my house on it. There is no much more else where you can make up those extra 5 - 10 points per week for 130-130K

For example:
Wines > Danger
Ward > Fyfe
Duncan > Pendles
Suckling >Houli
Birchall > Shaw
McCathy > Wells

I could go on but you get my drift.
All of the optionsplus more make you more points than Having Goldy over the next couple

But Cortez... I already have Fyfe, Danger, Plendles, Shaw, Houli, and Wells. So who else can I improve... Crouch to Parker? I have Parker.

The place where I've got my money is F3 (I'm currently starting with 2 ultra-premiums, followed by Wells, Kerridge, Kennedy, Menadue, Milera, McDonald-Tippa). So which of these Rookie Forwards can the money from not having Goldy improve that justifies betting against him?

For me, this isn't a question of what Goldy will average, but whether he will be in the top two Rucks. And for him to be the second highest scoring Ruck it will take either Martin or NicNat averaging 116+ (Mumford won't play a full season). Goldy won't score below 115. I'd bank on 118+. And I'm prepared to pay that coin because I think's more chance of Goldy scoring 115+ than Martin scoring 115. I currently have both, and will be disappointed with anything less than 225 gross. No other combination will come close to this imo.

Pay the money. Deal with the pain. And focus your energy on the other lines.

Martin without Leuey in 2015 (including when Leuey went down in first term in round 18):
95, 140, 120, 135, 112, 119, 108, 84, 159

So in 9 games last year without Leuey Martin averaged 119 with some pretty consistent scores. Without Leuenberger this year he has the ability to average this in 2016 which will definitely give him a top two ruck position.

Naitanui has had one of his best pre-seasons and looks to be injury free after playing 20 games last year. We all know what this guy is capabe of and there is nothing furthur to say about him

Gawn, Every year there is a ruckman who comes out of nowhere. Martin in 2014, Maric in 2012, Jacobs in 2014, Minson in 2013 etc. This year could be that year where this bloke goes 115.

As i have stated before each year since 2010 no ruckman has backed up with two years in a row in the number one spot
and only 4 players have ever averaged over 120 two years in a row. it is a hard feat that only the very best can do.

Before last year Goldsteins highest average was 113 in a season.
We shouldn't be talking about this bloke as he is a God in supercoach. There is only one God in supercoach and even he is the son of God.

History shows that the ruck position is very up and down year to year on who the absolute top scorers are. Yes there are the ones who stay premiums year after year but to stay ultra premium in this position is historically very hard to do.

Cortez, I can't disagree with the points you're making.

I currently have Martin for the precise reasons you've stated. And NicNat is my second favourite player after Cripps (I'm a Blues supporter). I've started NicNat more seasons than most, believe me.

But the idea that Goldy is going to slip down to 4th or 5th best Ruck (injuries aside) is laughable. I'm not saying he's God - there is spectrum here - I'm saying he's better than just 'plain good'. I'd say he's better than 'very good'. IMO, you're risking more if you bet on those below him succeeding over him failing.

I've made my bed and I'll sleep in it.

Next year there'll be another thread on whether you can justify spending 650K+ on Goldy.

I'm happy that you are happy with your pick Sonny.

All i'm stating is going by history of this position he is not woth 100k more than the next best ruck. It will change and at the end of the season he may well be number one or furthur down the ruck ladder but he won't be 130k worth ahead of the likes of Martin, NicNat or Jacobs.

This isn't directed at you, Yes Goldy is a great pick must he isn't a 100% must have. I am more directing this at the coaches who are struggling to get their structure right because of trying to get Goldy in. Pretty much you don'y have to change your team to fit him in if it ruins other picks. As i have stated in my previous statement there are great picks for 100-150k less that may score more or get with in 5 points of Goldstein.

[Colley Dogs]

I can see both Martin going 110+ maybe 115. and Goldy won't go 120+ ill put my house on it. There is no much more else where you can make up those extra 5 - 10 points per week for 130-130K

For example:
Wines > Danger
Ward > Fyfe
Duncan > Pendles
Suckling >Houli
Birchall > Shaw
McCathy > Wells

I could go on but you get my drift.
All of the optionsplus more make you more points than Having Goldy over the next couple

But Cortez... I already have Fyfe, Danger, Plendles, Shaw, Houli, and Wells. So who else can I improve... Crouch to Parker? I have Parker.

The place where I've got my money is F3 (I'm currently starting with 2 ultra-premiums, followed by Wells, Kerridge, Kennedy, Menadue, Milera, McDonald-Tippa). So which of these Rookie Forwards can the money from not having Goldy improve that justifies betting against him?

For me, this isn't a question of what Goldy will average, but whether he will be in the top two Rucks. And for him to be the second highest scoring Ruck it will take either Martin or NicNat averaging 116+ (Mumford won't play a full season). Goldy won't score below 115. I'd bank on 118+. And I'm prepared to pay that coin because I think's more chance of Goldy scoring 115+ than Martin scoring 115. I currently have both, and will be disappointed with anything less than 225 gross. No other combination will come close to this imo.

Pay the money. Deal with the pain. And focus your energy on the other lines.

Martin without Leuey in 2015 (including when Leuey went down in first term in round 18):
95, 140, 120, 135, 112, 119, 108, 84, 159

So in 9 games last year without Leuey Martin averaged 119 with some pretty consistent scores. Without Leuenberger this year he has the ability to average this in 2016 which will definitely give him a top two ruck position.

Naitanui has had one of his best pre-seasons and looks to be injury free after playing 20 games last year. We all know what this guy is capabe of and there is nothing furthur to say about him

Gawn, Every year there is a ruckman who comes out of nowhere. Martin in 2014, Maric in 2012, Jacobs in 2014, Minson in 2013 etc. This year could be that year where this bloke goes 115.

As i have stated before each year since 2010 no ruckman has backed up with two years in a row in the number one spot
and only 4 players have ever averaged over 120 two years in a row. it is a hard feat that only the very best can do.

Before last year Goldsteins highest average was 113 in a season.
We shouldn't be talking about this bloke as he is a God in supercoach. There is only one God in supercoach and even he is the son of God.

History shows that the ruck position is very up and down year to year on who the absolute top scorers are. Yes there are the ones who stay premiums year after year but to stay ultra premium in this position is historically very hard to do.

Cortez, I can't disagree with the points you're making.

I currently have Martin for the precise reasons you've stated. And NicNat is my second favourite player after Cripps (I'm a Blues supporter). I've started NicNat more seasons than most, believe me.

But the idea that Goldy is going to slip down to 4th or 5th best Ruck (injuries aside) is laughable. I'm not saying he's God - there is spectrum here - I'm saying he's better than just 'plain good'. I'd say he's better than 'very good'. IMO, you're risking more if you bet on those below him succeeding over him failing.

I've made my bed and I'll sleep in it.

Next year there'll be another thread on whether you can justify spending 650K+ on Goldy.

I'm happy that you are happy with your pick Sonny.

All i'm stating is going by history of this position he is not woth 100k more than the next best ruck. It will change and at the end of the season he may well be number one or furthur down the ruck ladder but he won't be 130k worth ahead of the likes of Martin, NicNat or Jacobs.

This isn't directed at you, Yes Goldy is a great pick must he isn't a 100% must have. I am more directing this at the coaches who are struggling to get their structure right because of trying to get Goldy in. Pretty much you don'y have to change your team to fit him in if it ruins other picks. As i have stated in my previous statement there are great picks for 100-150k less that may score more or get with in 5 points of Goldstein.

It will be interesting seeing how it plays out.

Thanks for discussing, and good luck for the season, Cortez!

[cortez]

I can see both Martin going 110+ maybe 115. and Goldy won't go 120+ ill put my house on it. There is no much more else where you can make up those extra 5 - 10 points per week for 130-130K

For example:
Wines > Danger
Ward > Fyfe
Duncan > Pendles
Suckling >Houli
Birchall > Shaw
McCathy > Wells

I could go on but you get my drift.
All of the optionsplus more make you more points than Having Goldy over the next couple

But Cortez... I already have Fyfe, Danger, Plendles, Shaw, Houli, and Wells. So who else can I improve... Crouch to Parker? I have Parker.

The place where I've got my money is F3 (I'm currently starting with 2 ultra-premiums, followed by Wells, Kerridge, Kennedy, Menadue, Milera, McDonald-Tippa). So which of these Rookie Forwards can the money from not having Goldy improve that justifies betting against him?

For me, this isn't a question of what Goldy will average, but whether he will be in the top two Rucks. And for him to be the second highest scoring Ruck it will take either Martin or NicNat averaging 116+ (Mumford won't play a full season). Goldy won't score below 115. I'd bank on 118+. And I'm prepared to pay that coin because I think's more chance of Goldy scoring 115+ than Martin scoring 115. I currently have both, and will be disappointed with anything less than 225 gross. No other combination will come close to this imo.

Pay the money. Deal with the pain. And focus your energy on the other lines.

Martin without Leuey in 2015 (including when Leuey went down in first term in round 18):
95, 140, 120, 135, 112, 119, 108, 84, 159

So in 9 games last year without Leuey Martin averaged 119 with some pretty consistent scores. Without Leuenberger this year he has the ability to average this in 2016 which will definitely give him a top two ruck position.

Naitanui has had one of his best pre-seasons and looks to be injury free after playing 20 games last year. We all know what this guy is capabe of and there is nothing furthur to say about him

Gawn, Every year there is a ruckman who comes out of nowhere. Martin in 2014, Maric in 2012, Jacobs in 2014, Minson in 2013 etc. This year could be that year where this bloke goes 115.

As i have stated before each year since 2010 no ruckman has backed up with two years in a row in the number one spot
and only 4 players have ever averaged over 120 two years in a row. it is a hard feat that only the very best can do.

Before last year Goldsteins highest average was 113 in a season.
We shouldn't be talking about this bloke as he is a God in supercoach. There is only one God in supercoach and even he is the son of God.

History shows that the ruck position is very up and down year to year on who the absolute top scorers are. Yes there are the ones who stay premiums year after year but to stay ultra premium in this position is historically very hard to do.

Cortez, I can't disagree with the points you're making.

I currently have Martin for the precise reasons you've stated. And NicNat is my second favourite player after Cripps (I'm a Blues supporter). I've started NicNat more seasons than most, believe me.

But the idea that Goldy is going to slip down to 4th or 5th best Ruck (injuries aside) is laughable. I'm not saying he's God - there is spectrum here - I'm saying he's better than just 'plain good'. I'd say he's better than 'very good'. IMO, you're risking more if you bet on those below him succeeding over him failing.

I've made my bed and I'll sleep in it.

Next year there'll be another thread on whether you can justify spending 650K+ on Goldy.

I'm happy that you are happy with your pick Sonny.

All i'm stating is going by history of this position he is not woth 100k more than the next best ruck. It will change and at the end of the season he may well be number one or furthur down the ruck ladder but he won't be 130k worth ahead of the likes of Martin, NicNat or Jacobs.

This isn't directed at you, Yes Goldy is a great pick must he isn't a 100% must have. I am more directing this at the coaches who are struggling to get their structure right because of trying to get Goldy in. Pretty much you don'y have to change your team to fit him in if it ruins other picks. As i have stated in my previous statement there are great picks for 100-150k less that may score more or get with in 5 points of Goldstein.

It will be interesting seeing how it plays out.

Thanks for discussing, and good luck for the season, Cortez!

was a pleasure

[Marstar]

I can see both Martin going 110+ maybe 115. and Goldy won't go 120+ ill put my house on it. There is no much more else where you can make up those extra 5 - 10 points per week for 130-130K

For example:
Wines > Danger
Ward > Fyfe
Duncan > Pendles
Suckling >Houli
Birchall > Shaw
McCathy > Wells

I could go on but you get my drift.
All of the optionsplus more make you more points than Having Goldy over the next couple

As pointed out already most people already have most all those on the right of the list ... I don't have H.Shaw.

So I'd rather save 130 there and go H.Shaw > Bartel and make those 5-10 points on Goldie over NNat ... and get Shaw later.

3 years in a row NN has been worshiped on these forums as the ultimate set and forget after his high of 113 in 2012, it's always his year to explode.

If Goldie isn't banking top 2 scores then I'll sideways trade him to the person that is ... be it Gawn, NN or Maric ... when their prices cross paths and take it as a correction trade.

If you're wrong about NN, how many rounds/points are you willing to bleed b4 you justify the trade to upgrade for 5-10 ppg?

[Bully]

I can see both Martin going 110+ maybe 115. and Goldy won't go 120+ ill put my house on it. There is no much more else where you can make up those extra 5 - 10 points per week for 130-130K

For example:
Wines > Danger
Ward > Fyfe
Duncan > Pendles
Suckling >Houli
Birchall > Shaw
McCathy > Wells

I could go on but you get my drift.
All of the optionsplus more make you more points than Having Goldy over the next couple

As pointed out already most people already have most all those on the right of the list ... I don't have H.Shaw.

So I'd rather save 130 there and go H.Shaw > Bartel and make those 5-10 points on Goldie over NNat ... and get Shaw later.

3 years in a row NN has been worshiped on these forums as the ultimate set and forget after his high of 113 in 2012, it's always his year to explode.

If Goldie isn't banking top 2 scores then I'll sideways trade him to the person that is ... be it Gawn, NN or Maric ... when their prices cross paths and take it as a correction trade.

If you're wrong about NN, how many rounds/points are you willing to bleed b4 you justify the trade to upgrade for 5-10 ppg?

I've been a victim of the NN hype too but this year I'm trying something a bit different. One elite season, quite a few missed matches, being toweled in the GF, having a poor record against some of the better ruckmen in the comp, failing to ton up on 9 occasions last year. Sure, he may hit his straps and return to his AA exploits but I don't think it will be this year, West Coast have a very tough draw which must surely come into consideration.

[RoughRed]

Before last year Goldsteins highest average was 113 in a season.
We shouldn't be talking about this bloke as he is a God in supercoach. There is only one God in supercoach and even he is the son of God.

Amen brothers n sisters
Goldy has a proven tank
BUT I do not think think NM will have the cattle to exploit Goldy excellence - particularly protecting the drop zone. What i mean is that other sides will (should) have plans to close out his delivery thereby reducing his hitout to advantage scoring. He will have evolved (i hope) so will the watching coaching staff
AND other rucks are showing improvemnt
Gawn is building a tank
NN will rest off-field AND in forward - properly managed he will exploded scorewise IMO
Jacobs, Smith, Martin and that big bloke from Freo could be fit (plus Griffin)
No doubt he will score but competing clubs will have plans to negate what he does
Started with him in initial teams but now spending the money elsewhere - $ for points
I will not take him up as a starter but will monitor - particularly towards Mid to Backend of the season
Loved your debate - apologies for my 2 cents

[ando_10]

i wont be starting him martin will go the same if not better this year racks up touches around the ground aswell.

[Samm79]

Starting, worth every dollar and I am unsure of the logic behind not starting him...

In 2014 he injured his shoulder in the opening round and wasn't quite right for a few rounds after, he only tonned it up for the first time in round 8. From that point forward he averaged 117 for the season, and 129.5 over the last 9 rounds.

That means he's averaged around 129 over the last 33 rounds, that is MASSIVE. Very very rarely misses games. By all accounts he's in better shape for this year, no rule changes (that I am aware of) to reduce his scoring, if a mid had these stats you'd be all over it like a rash.... To put this in perspective Fyfe has averaged a neat 123 and 18 regular season games in the past 2 years, and Fyfe is in 37% or teams, Goldy 27%....

And the thing about rucks having variable scoring one year to the next I find a little bemusing, there is no rational behind it aside from coincidence. One thing I think that is sometimes forgotten is the premium ruck sample size is about 10-20% of the premium mids sample size, so if 4 or 5 premium mids have down years it's less noticeable than the rucks people were banking on.

Aside from changes to points scoring I think rucks have similar ebbs and flows of the mids, but because the sample size is smaller you just notice it more. Examples of mids with variable returns in the past 5 seasons are (drop of >20% from one year to the next): Scott Thompson, Rocky, MMurphy, Gibbs (not mid prem, aware), Swan, Sidebottom (10%), Goddard, Barlow, Gablett has dropped his average by over 9 points on 3 occasions), Hodge, I'm half way through the teams...

And more people are starting Shaw after one excellent season that followed 7 average to pass mark seasons, I just don't get it!!

[Hoggyz_a_legend]

The argument I'm trying to wrap my head around is that deapite him being the clear no.1 ruck, if you downgrade to someone else, can the money saved, be used to make up, or more than make up the points difference over the course of the year.

Basically:
Goldy and Oliver- 190-200 avg
Gawn/Martin and B.Crouch- 200-220

Goldy and Wines- 230-245
Gawn/Martin and Dangerfield- 230-245

They're just two types of examples where the cash saved from not going Goldy can be used to possibly make up the difference in avgs from Goldy-> the next tier.

Me- I am still undecided...

[RaisyDaisy]

That example is not really valid. Nobody is doing Goldy Oliver vs Martin Crouch. Can't use Crouch in this

Goldy buddy vs Martin Martin is more like it

Goldy Hurn vs Martin Rance

Etc

Even in those cases it's not as clear cut because it's 30 players you can shuffle, not a simple 2 for 2 exercise

[Redbaron]

Not starting him. Basing this on the fact that on average things always deviate to the average. Goldies previously highest scoring average is 113 so it is likely that he will finish close go this.  Doesn't mean he won't average more but remains unlikely. You can also apply the same principle of deviating toward the average when looking at games played ( I am looking at you stef Martin)

[Marstar]

The only reason to not start Goldie is if you truely believe he will drop over 15ppg "and both" you rucks hit 115+.

Cause come the bye ... Goldie owners will also have upgraded to whomever you upgraded to in the other lines "if" they were worth upgrading to to begin with.

So you run 2 risks. Goldie fails. Your upgrade succeeds.

Then the moment the upgrade to that player they have your play and goldie vs your player and you ruck.

Hope that made sense ... typing off phone  :o

[GM]

Locked
Hits to advantage is the key.

[sidvicious]

That example is not really valid. Nobody is doing Goldy Oliver vs Martin Crouch. Can't use Crouch in this

Goldy buddy vs Martin Martin is more like it

Goldy Hurn vs Martin Rance

Etc

Even in those cases it's not as clear cut because it's 30 players you can shuffle, not a simple 2 for 2 exercise

Agree with this you have to do a viable comparison like Goldy ,Sinclair vs Nicnat , Gawn