Goldstein - To start or to not start, that is the question

[Grufflez]

Handy numbers indeed, but the stats don't cover it all.

What value can you put on having a genuine Captain option like Goldy each week? And what value when your opponent has him and you don't?

I'm not a fan of "removing" his 200+ score or even 160+ scores. He got them, which means he is capable of getting them again. Removing injury/sub games is fine, but not high scoring games

In years gone by people were happy to put 650k+ for Rocky, Pendles etc.

At 700k he is worth it. Let's say he dropped to 620k. Everyone jumps on because he is still the best, but everyone has just used a trade while I haven't. I'll value a trade and the points he gets me from the get go over another ruck to be worth more than the extra 100k or whatever it costs to start him

It goes both ways.

I agree with not disregarding it. 160+ i dont even consider removing, but a 221 i show the impact it had without it in there as it is a massive outlier.

The captain option can be covered by one G Ablett/Fyfe/Rocky/Pendles/Shaw, but Goldy is a good one to have there if someone else doesn't and you need to make up points. It would be interesting to do a variance analysis on his scores compared to a fit Ablett/Fyfe type.

An average of 113 would be around $600k, so this is likely to be the lowest that he will drop to barring an injury or multiple sub 100 games to start the year. It is likely to be a situation if you don't start him it will be very hard to bring him in. without it being a sideways. Luey is the only option, but he would need to average 100 and get to 500k at the same time as goldy drops to $600k to make it viable.

If you dont have him at the start, it will be hard to bring him in. Im liking this discussion :)

Enter Kurt Tippett. He only needs to make 16.2k to get to 500k. At the moment I am starting Martin and Tippett with Leuey as cover in the forward line.

Defeats the purpose. I'd value a trade as being worth a lot more than 16.2k. Tippett and Sinclair will be good cover, but they aren't going to be premium rucks and they aren't going to make any more than 100k. So, there's no good reason to have either when you can have a premium ruck at the expense of a line that will be far easier to upgrade, and when you can have Leuenberger who will do the same but for much less.

Not really how it works, it's the value of the ruckman u start withs increase + the Goldy drop, so a 75k Goldy drop plus 50k increase for Tippet is 125k for the trade, but relying on 1 player to increase and the other premo to drop has 2 risks. realistically if going this way plan for Goldy at 625 as 600k is a bit more of a stretch.

[BomberSam]

Handy numbers indeed, but the stats don't cover it all.

What value can you put on having a genuine Captain option like Goldy each week? And what value when your opponent has him and you don't?

I'm not a fan of "removing" his 200+ score or even 160+ scores. He got them, which means he is capable of getting them again. Removing injury/sub games is fine, but not high scoring games

In years gone by people were happy to put 650k+ for Rocky, Pendles etc.

At 700k he is worth it. Let's say he dropped to 620k. Everyone jumps on because he is still the best, but everyone has just used a trade while I haven't. I'll value a trade and the points he gets me from the get go over another ruck to be worth more than the extra 100k or whatever it costs to start him

It goes both ways.

I agree with not disregarding it. 160+ i dont even consider removing, but a 221 i show the impact it had without it in there as it is a massive outlier.

The captain option can be covered by one G Ablett/Fyfe/Rocky/Pendles/Shaw, but Goldy is a good one to have there if someone else doesn't and you need to make up points. It would be interesting to do a variance analysis on his scores compared to a fit Ablett/Fyfe type.

An average of 113 would be around $600k, so this is likely to be the lowest that he will drop to barring an injury or multiple sub 100 games to start the year. It is likely to be a situation if you don't start him it will be very hard to bring him in. without it being a sideways. Luey is the only option, but he would need to average 100 and get to 500k at the same time as goldy drops to $600k to make it viable.

If you dont have him at the start, it will be hard to bring him in. Im liking this discussion :)

Enter Kurt Tippett. He only needs to make 16.2k to get to 500k. At the moment I am starting Martin and Tippett with Leuey as cover in the forward line.

Defeats the purpose. I'd value a trade as being worth a lot more than 16.2k. Tippett and Sinclair will be good cover, but they aren't going to be premium rucks and they aren't going to make any more than 100k. So, there's no good reason to have either when you can have a premium ruck at the expense of a line that will be far easier to upgrade, and when you can have Leuenberger who will do the same but for much less.

So what are you saying? Leuenberger to get to Goldy, from R2? Or in the forward line as cover with a set and forget combo?

[BomberSam]

Handy numbers indeed, but the stats don't cover it all.

What value can you put on having a genuine Captain option like Goldy each week? And what value when your opponent has him and you don't?

I'm not a fan of "removing" his 200+ score or even 160+ scores. He got them, which means he is capable of getting them again. Removing injury/sub games is fine, but not high scoring games

In years gone by people were happy to put 650k+ for Rocky, Pendles etc.

At 700k he is worth it. Let's say he dropped to 620k. Everyone jumps on because he is still the best, but everyone has just used a trade while I haven't. I'll value a trade and the points he gets me from the get go over another ruck to be worth more than the extra 100k or whatever it costs to start him

It goes both ways.

I agree with not disregarding it. 160+ i dont even consider removing, but a 221 i show the impact it had without it in there as it is a massive outlier.

The captain option can be covered by one G Ablett/Fyfe/Rocky/Pendles/Shaw, but Goldy is a good one to have there if someone else doesn't and you need to make up points. It would be interesting to do a variance analysis on his scores compared to a fit Ablett/Fyfe type.

An average of 113 would be around $600k, so this is likely to be the lowest that he will drop to barring an injury or multiple sub 100 games to start the year. It is likely to be a situation if you don't start him it will be very hard to bring him in. without it being a sideways. Luey is the only option, but he would need to average 100 and get to 500k at the same time as goldy drops to $600k to make it viable.

If you dont have him at the start, it will be hard to bring him in. Im liking this discussion :)

Enter Kurt Tippett. He only needs to make 16.2k to get to 500k. At the moment I am starting Martin and Tippett with Leuey as cover in the forward line.

Defeats the purpose. I'd value a trade as being worth a lot more than 16.2k. Tippett and Sinclair will be good cover, but they aren't going to be premium rucks and they aren't going to make any more than 100k. So, there's no good reason to have either when you can have a premium ruck at the expense of a line that will be far easier to upgrade, and when you can have Leuenberger who will do the same but for much less.

Not really how it works, it's the value of the ruckman u start withs increase + the Goldy drop, so a 75k Goldy drop plus 50k increase for Tippet is 125k for the trade, but relying on 1 player to increase and the other premo to drop has 2 risks. realistically if going this way plan for Goldy at 625 as 600k is a bit more of a stretch.

I was thinking with an upgrade and a downgrade. Downgrade rookie X and then upgrade Tippett to Goldy.

[Southstorm]

Handy numbers indeed, but the stats don't cover it all.

What value can you put on having a genuine Captain option like Goldy each week? And what value when your opponent has him and you don't?

I'm not a fan of "removing" his 200+ score or even 160+ scores. He got them, which means he is capable of getting them again. Removing injury/sub games is fine, but not high scoring games

In years gone by people were happy to put 650k+ for Rocky, Pendles etc.

At 700k he is worth it. Let's say he dropped to 620k. Everyone jumps on because he is still the best, but everyone has just used a trade while I haven't. I'll value a trade and the points he gets me from the get go over another ruck to be worth more than the extra 100k or whatever it costs to start him

It goes both ways.

I agree with not disregarding it. 160+ i dont even consider removing, but a 221 i show the impact it had without it in there as it is a massive outlier.

The captain option can be covered by one G Ablett/Fyfe/Rocky/Pendles/Shaw, but Goldy is a good one to have there if someone else doesn't and you need to make up points. It would be interesting to do a variance analysis on his scores compared to a fit Ablett/Fyfe type.

An average of 113 would be around $600k, so this is likely to be the lowest that he will drop to barring an injury or multiple sub 100 games to start the year. It is likely to be a situation if you don't start him it will be very hard to bring him in. without it being a sideways. Luey is the only option, but he would need to average 100 and get to 500k at the same time as goldy drops to $600k to make it viable.

If you dont have him at the start, it will be hard to bring him in. Im liking this discussion :)

Enter Kurt Tippett. He only needs to make 16.2k to get to 500k. At the moment I am starting Martin and Tippett with Leuey as cover in the forward line.

Defeats the purpose. I'd value a trade as being worth a lot more than 16.2k. Tippett and Sinclair will be good cover, but they aren't going to be premium rucks and they aren't going to make any more than 100k. So, there's no good reason to have either when you can have a premium ruck at the expense of a line that will be far easier to upgrade, and when you can have Leuenberger who will do the same but for much less.

Not really how it works, it's the value of the ruckman u start withs increase + the Goldy drop, so a 75k Goldy drop plus 50k increase for Tippet is 125k for the trade, but relying on 1 player to increase and the other premo to drop has 2 risks. realistically if going this way plan for Goldy at 625 as 600k is a bit more of a stretch.

I can see what you're saying, but I don't like factoring in the drop for the target because it's something that's really, really difficult to predict. I guess for me, it's because I'm going to have that money anyway. If Goldy drops, that 75k drop isn't going to alter any outcome more favourably than another. If you start with Leuey or Sinclair; you'll still benefit. If you start with Goldy, he's a keeper so who cares? But yeah, I see what you're getting at.

Regardless, Goldstein averaged close to 130 last year; it would take him a drop of about 25ppg for him to be under $600k by week 8. It'd take a drop of between 15-20ppg for him to be 625k by week eight. I know last years average was inflated by some big scores but you can't discount his big games because he's capable of them and they will happen.  Historically, I think his biggest drop has been about 20ppg when he went from 2011 to being tandem with Hmac in 2012. Unless something changes between now and next year and barring injury, I think he's long odds to be under 650k. And for that reason, if you aren't starting with him you need a very clear plan on how to bring in somebody at 650k, even 625k.

Handy numbers indeed, but the stats don't cover it all.

What value can you put on having a genuine Captain option like Goldy each week? And what value when your opponent has him and you don't?

I'm not a fan of "removing" his 200+ score or even 160+ scores. He got them, which means he is capable of getting them again. Removing injury/sub games is fine, but not high scoring games

In years gone by people were happy to put 650k+ for Rocky, Pendles etc.

At 700k he is worth it. Let's say he dropped to 620k. Everyone jumps on because he is still the best, but everyone has just used a trade while I haven't. I'll value a trade and the points he gets me from the get go over another ruck to be worth more than the extra 100k or whatever it costs to start him

It goes both ways.

I agree with not disregarding it. 160+ i dont even consider removing, but a 221 i show the impact it had without it in there as it is a massive outlier.

The captain option can be covered by one G Ablett/Fyfe/Rocky/Pendles/Shaw, but Goldy is a good one to have there if someone else doesn't and you need to make up points. It would be interesting to do a variance analysis on his scores compared to a fit Ablett/Fyfe type.

An average of 113 would be around $600k, so this is likely to be the lowest that he will drop to barring an injury or multiple sub 100 games to start the year. It is likely to be a situation if you don't start him it will be very hard to bring him in. without it being a sideways. Luey is the only option, but he would need to average 100 and get to 500k at the same time as goldy drops to $600k to make it viable.

If you dont have him at the start, it will be hard to bring him in. Im liking this discussion :)

Enter Kurt Tippett. He only needs to make 16.2k to get to 500k. At the moment I am starting Martin and Tippett with Leuey as cover in the forward line.

Defeats the purpose. I'd value a trade as being worth a lot more than 16.2k. Tippett and Sinclair will be good cover, but they aren't going to be premium rucks and they aren't going to make any more than 100k. So, there's no good reason to have either when you can have a premium ruck at the expense of a line that will be far easier to upgrade, and when you can have Leuenberger who will do the same but for much less.

So what are you saying? Leuenberger to get to Goldy, from R2? Or in the forward line as cover with a set and forget combo?

What I'm saying is that if you're using a mid-pricer to eventually get to Goldy, consider using somebody who is better value. The problem here is that the guy who is going to be most productive as an upgrade for your team is also the guy who you want as cover in the forward line. I can see why you want this structure, but it's a very inefficient one.

If you forgo cover in the forward line and have Leuenberger starting over Tippet at R2, you get something that looks like this around week 8.

Leuenberger @450k + 170k difference in starting price = 620k.
Tippett @ 500k =  500k.

You go with the first option, you've got the bulk of the cash you'll need to get Goldy and if you downgrade smart, you might have enough on an earlier trade to do a sideways swap. As far as scoring goes, I can't see Tippett having a better start to the season than Leuey although I'll let others decide on what they think. All you have to do is resist the urge to spend that 170k.

[kilbluff1985]

this decision is doing my head in

[Holz]

So whats the plan if Goldy starts the season going 125+

[GM]

this decision is doing my head in

It's simple , Lock him in !

[_wato]

Why worry about not having him? Get him in, cop the $$ loss and be rewarded with a saved trade and good points

Remember, to have the best you have to pay up, knowing you'll lose money spent at the start by the first few rounds

This is exactly like Ablett, we all paid $700k for him because we knew he'd score well and we also knew he'd drop in value at some point, Pendles also (dropped $150k one year, nobody said anything about him then because he'd stikl scored very well)

As for the draw, his first four opponents he scored 100, 154, 127, 155, 116 & 44 against

Average of 116, including a 44 in there which I doubt will happen again

Otherwise, he went 130+

[BomberSam]

Handy numbers indeed, but the stats don't cover it all.

What value can you put on having a genuine Captain option like Goldy each week? And what value when your opponent has him and you don't?

I'm not a fan of "removing" his 200+ score or even 160+ scores. He got them, which means he is capable of getting them again. Removing injury/sub games is fine, but not high scoring games

In years gone by people were happy to put 650k+ for Rocky, Pendles etc.

At 700k he is worth it. Let's say he dropped to 620k. Everyone jumps on because he is still the best, but everyone has just used a trade while I haven't. I'll value a trade and the points he gets me from the get go over another ruck to be worth more than the extra 100k or whatever it costs to start him

It goes both ways.

I agree with not disregarding it. 160+ i dont even consider removing, but a 221 i show the impact it had without it in there as it is a massive outlier.

The captain option can be covered by one G Ablett/Fyfe/Rocky/Pendles/Shaw, but Goldy is a good one to have there if someone else doesn't and you need to make up points. It would be interesting to do a variance analysis on his scores compared to a fit Ablett/Fyfe type.

An average of 113 would be around $600k, so this is likely to be the lowest that he will drop to barring an injury or multiple sub 100 games to start the year. It is likely to be a situation if you don't start him it will be very hard to bring him in. without it being a sideways. Luey is the only option, but he would need to average 100 and get to 500k at the same time as goldy drops to $600k to make it viable.

If you dont have him at the start, it will be hard to bring him in. Im liking this discussion :)

Enter Kurt Tippett. He only needs to make 16.2k to get to 500k. At the moment I am starting Martin and Tippett with Leuey as cover in the forward line.

Defeats the purpose. I'd value a trade as being worth a lot more than 16.2k. Tippett and Sinclair will be good cover, but they aren't going to be premium rucks and they aren't going to make any more than 100k. So, there's no good reason to have either when you can have a premium ruck at the expense of a line that will be far easier to upgrade, and when you can have Leuenberger who will do the same but for much less.

Not really how it works, it's the value of the ruckman u start withs increase + the Goldy drop, so a 75k Goldy drop plus 50k increase for Tippet is 125k for the trade, but relying on 1 player to increase and the other premo to drop has 2 risks. realistically if going this way plan for Goldy at 625 as 600k is a bit more of a stretch.

I can see what you're saying, but I don't like factoring in the drop for the target because it's something that's really, really difficult to predict. I guess for me, it's because I'm going to have that money anyway. If Goldy drops, that 75k drop isn't going to alter any outcome more favourably than another. If you start with Leuey or Sinclair; you'll still benefit. If you start with Goldy, he's a keeper so who cares? But yeah, I see what you're getting at.

Regardless, Goldstein averaged close to 130 last year; it would take him a drop of about 25ppg for him to be under $600k by week 8. It'd take a drop of between 15-20ppg for him to be 625k by week eight. I know last years average was inflated by some big scores but you can't discount his big games because he's capable of them and they will happen.  Historically, I think his biggest drop has been about 20ppg when he went from 2011 to being tandem with Hmac in 2012. Unless something changes between now and next year and barring injury, I think he's long odds to be under 650k. And for that reason, if you aren't starting with him you need a very clear plan on how to bring in somebody at 650k, even 625k.

Handy numbers indeed, but the stats don't cover it all.

What value can you put on having a genuine Captain option like Goldy each week? And what value when your opponent has him and you don't?

I'm not a fan of "removing" his 200+ score or even 160+ scores. He got them, which means he is capable of getting them again. Removing injury/sub games is fine, but not high scoring games

In years gone by people were happy to put 650k+ for Rocky, Pendles etc.

At 700k he is worth it. Let's say he dropped to 620k. Everyone jumps on because he is still the best, but everyone has just used a trade while I haven't. I'll value a trade and the points he gets me from the get go over another ruck to be worth more than the extra 100k or whatever it costs to start him

It goes both ways.

I agree with not disregarding it. 160+ i dont even consider removing, but a 221 i show the impact it had without it in there as it is a massive outlier.

The captain option can be covered by one G Ablett/Fyfe/Rocky/Pendles/Shaw, but Goldy is a good one to have there if someone else doesn't and you need to make up points. It would be interesting to do a variance analysis on his scores compared to a fit Ablett/Fyfe type.

An average of 113 would be around $600k, so this is likely to be the lowest that he will drop to barring an injury or multiple sub 100 games to start the year. It is likely to be a situation if you don't start him it will be very hard to bring him in. without it being a sideways. Luey is the only option, but he would need to average 100 and get to 500k at the same time as goldy drops to $600k to make it viable.

If you dont have him at the start, it will be hard to bring him in. Im liking this discussion :)

Enter Kurt Tippett. He only needs to make 16.2k to get to 500k. At the moment I am starting Martin and Tippett with Leuey as cover in the forward line.

Defeats the purpose. I'd value a trade as being worth a lot more than 16.2k. Tippett and Sinclair will be good cover, but they aren't going to be premium rucks and they aren't going to make any more than 100k. So, there's no good reason to have either when you can have a premium ruck at the expense of a line that will be far easier to upgrade, and when you can have Leuenberger who will do the same but for much less.

So what are you saying? Leuenberger to get to Goldy, from R2? Or in the forward line as cover with a set and forget combo?

What I'm saying is that if you're using a mid-pricer to eventually get to Goldy, consider using somebody who is better value. The problem here is that the guy who is going to be most productive as an upgrade for your team is also the guy who you want as cover in the forward line. I can see why you want this structure, but it's a very inefficient one.

If you forgo cover in the forward line and have Leuenberger starting over Tippet at R2, you get something that looks like this around week 8.

Leuenberger @450k + 170k difference in starting price = 620k.
Tippett @ 500k =  500k.

You go with the first option, you've got the bulk of the cash you'll need to get Goldy and if you downgrade smart, you might have enough on an earlier trade to do a sideways swap. As far as scoring goes, I can't see Tippett having a better start to the season than Leuey although I'll let others decide on what they think. All you have to do is resist the urge to spend that 170k.

Thanks for the response Southstorm, that helps a lot.

[BomberSam]

So whats the plan if Goldy starts the season going 125+

Start 2017 pre-season

[fasttrack13]

Agree with southstorm, i did the calculations based on goldy's last year scores... even if he does drop to 600k by rd 5 leuy wont have appreciated enough to warrant that upgrade as itll still be 200k upgrade which will require 3-4 trades. I'd rather spend and extra 400k for him and have 150 captain scores than burn 3-4 trades.
And theres no point waiting for another drop because he has Suns/Dogs/Saints/Dons/Blues which would probably mean he will be back above 700k.

Bottom line if you want goldy then start him

[The_Captain]

Ill pass.... Cant see him maintaining that average... Id rather use the extra money to boost my midfield and get even more points. Value for my $$$$$

[Grufflez]

I'll probably start him as i have found that it is much easier said than done to get in the 600K + premos early to mid year
and the good ruckman Goldy faces early on he still averaged 120 against them last year.

Now who likes Blicavs !!!!???

[Goosey]

When Ablett went down, Goldy stepped up with some massive captain scores.

I owe it to him, he's first picked. Go for Goldy.

[Money Shot]

A lot of people (including me at one point) were looking at going Leuy to Goldy but I looked at it realistically and Leuy will need to average more than Goldy to get too a price worth trading him too.

I don't see it happening and think that Goldy's bad start won't be bad at all and he will still average 110+ which is all you need. Yes he may drop in cash but so be it.